本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信证券：当前市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态 当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 光大证券：国内外利好共振 市场有所回暖 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大 的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短 期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势 为主。 华金证券：春季行情开启了吗？ 当前来看，明年春季行情可能于今年12 月中下旬提前开启。（1）短期政策和外部事件可能偏积极。一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector currently has a low average valuation, presenting a safety margin and potential for growth [2] - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales of savings-type products [7] - The securities industry is undergoing transformation, which may lead to new business growth opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sector Performance - In the recent five trading days (December 1-5, 2025), only the insurance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with insurance up 5.13%, while the overall non-bank financial sector rose 2.33% [6][13] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has increased by 20.28%, outperforming other sectors [14] Securities Sector - Trading volume has decreased month-on-month, with an average daily trading amount of 19,654 billion CNY in December, down 12.30% from the previous month but up 11.93% year-on-year [18] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is considering measures to enhance the capital space for quality brokerages, aiming for high-quality development [23] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025 [24] Insurance Sector - The total assets of the insurance industry surpassed 40 trillion CNY, growing by 12.5% year-to-date [35] - Regulatory changes are aimed at optimizing long-term stock holding risk factors, encouraging insurance funds to adopt a long-term investment approach [27] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at historical lows, with a P/EV ratio between 0.61 and 0.97 for 2025 [36] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is experiencing a significant decline in profits, with total profits down by 45.5% year-on-year [39] - The futures market saw a year-on-year increase in trading volume and value, indicating a potential recovery in market activity [45] - The financial leasing sector is being guided to focus on its core business and enhance service capabilities [53] Industry Ranking and Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the industry is insurance > securities > other multi-financial sectors, with key companies including China Life, Ping An, and CITIC Securities highlighted for investment [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating a potential for gradual realization of the sector's rebound logic [3]. Core Insights - The recent speech by the chairman of the China Securities Association has shifted market expectations positively for the brokerage sector, with a strong certainty of an upward adjustment in the long-term ROE central [3]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. The attractiveness of the equity market will benefit wealth management and asset management businesses of brokerages, with a specific recommendation for Dongfang Securities [3]. 2. Companies benefiting from an improved competitive landscape, with key recommendations including Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities [3]. 3. Valuation mismatches in Huatai Securities A+H and strong international business competitiveness in China Galaxy and CICC [3]. Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4,584.54, with a weekly change of +1.28%. The non-bank index closed at 1,975.96, with a weekly change of +2.27%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported changes of +1.14%, +5.08%, and +0.49%, respectively [6]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 16,962.89 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 61.08% compared to the previous year [17]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of December 5, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.85%, with a weekly change of +1.14 basis points. The credit spread for corporate bonds was 0.54%, with a weekly change of +3.61 basis points [11]. - The insurance sector's original premium income for the first ten months of 2025 reached 5.48 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [28]. Individual Stock Highlights - In the insurance sector, notable A-share performances included China Pacific Insurance (+8.23%), Ping An (+5.09%), and China Life (+4.32%) [8]. - In the brokerage sector, the top performers included Zhongyin Securities (+7.89%) and Xingye Securities (+6.35%) [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has approved the non-public offering of shares by Wuzhou Xinchun, allowing the company to raise up to 1 billion yuan for specific projects and working capital [1][3]. Group 1: Fundraising Details - Wuzhou Xinchun plans to raise a total of up to 1 billion yuan (100,000.00 million yuan) through a non-public offering of A-shares [3]. - The funds will be allocated to two main projects: the development and industrialization of embodied intelligent robots and core components for automotive intelligent driving, with an investment of 700 million yuan, and the replenishment of working capital with 300 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Offering Structure - The offering will target no more than 35 specific investors, including qualified institutional investors such as securities companies, trust companies, and qualified foreign institutional investors [5]. - The shares will be issued at a price not lower than 80% of the average trading price over the 20 trading days prior to the pricing date [5]. Group 3: Share Issuance and Control - The number of shares to be issued will be calculated based on the total amount raised divided by the issue price, with a maximum limit of 109,860,831 shares, not exceeding 30% of the total share capital before the issuance [6]. - The actual controllers of the company, Zhang Feng and Yu Yuelai, along with their concerted action person, Wang Xueyong, collectively hold 37.79% of the shares, ensuring that control remains unchanged post-offering [7].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望 逐步兑现 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/5） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 非银金融 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 1.14%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.14pct。中证协第八次会员大会上吴清主 席讲话扭转市场对券商板块预期，证券业中长期 ROE 中枢上移确定性强。1）适度拓宽优质券商资本空间 与杠杆上限：会上，吴清主席提到" 在监管政策上，我们将着力强化分类监管、"扶优限劣"。对优质机 ...

当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，超预期的内需变化出现前，震荡和结构性机会的轮动是常 态，资源/传统制造业在全球定价权的重估仍然是潜力的被低估的方向。去年"9.24行情"以来，两轮市场 水位的整体抬升都伴随着融资规模的系统性抬升，合计净增了1.11万亿元，远超去年10月以来公募和私 募主观多头产品新发总规模。在这两波行情当中，主要宽基和景气行业都完成了绝大部分涨幅。如果剔 除两轮融资的大幅上升阶段，其他时间市场基本是横盘震荡，在震荡期还能实现有效上涨的板块主要是 量化驱动的微盘、保险驱动的银行、涨价推动的有色以及管线出海推动的创新药。 其他时间市场大多横盘震荡，实现上涨的板块仅有微盘指数、银行、有色和医药 1）剔除两轮融资大幅上升的阶段，市场基本维持震荡轮动的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous improvement of China's manufacturing industry's global pricing power and economic profit share is expected to lead to a sustained appreciation of the Renminbi, with predictions of reaching 6.8 against the US dollar by 2026. To mitigate the potential negative impact of rapid Renminbi appreciation on export-oriented manufacturing, proactive monetary easing is deemed necessary [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The anticipated monetary easing may lower real interest rates and stimulate domestic demand, which is essential for breaking the current market stagnation and achieving further growth by 2026 [1]. - Prior to this, market fluctuations and structural opportunities are expected to be the norm in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors that have global exposure and profit growth potential [1]. Group 2: Sector Recommendations - In the resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, there is optimism for leading companies in industries where China holds a competitive advantage, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, emphasizing the narrative of "supply internalization and external demand for profit" [1]. - Companies expanding overseas remain a crucial avenue for profit and market capitalization growth, as A-shares transition from a domestic emerging market focus to a global mature market perspective, despite the increased resonance with overseas risk assets and economic environments [1]. - From a high-to-low perspective, less crowded sectors such as cinema, securities, aviation, liquor, and hotels, along with direct increment stocks like banks, thermal power, and oil & petrochemicals, are also viable options [1]. - Close attention is advised for policy changes during the upcoming Political Bureau meeting and economic work conference at the end of the year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that before the emergence of unexpected changes in domestic demand, market fluctuations and structural opportunities are the norm, with a reassessment of global pricing power in resources and traditional manufacturing being an undervalued direction [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall elevation of market levels has been accompanied by a systematic increase in financing scale, totaling a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding the total issuance scale of public and private bullish products since October last year [1] - In the two market rallies, major broad-based and cyclical industries have completed most of their gains, while excluding the significant rise phases of financing, the market has mostly been in a sideways trend [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - During the sideways period, sectors that achieved effective growth include quantitatively driven micro-accounts, bank-driven insurance, price-driven non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals driven by pipeline exports [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market fluctuation may be a normal state before the emergence of unexpected changes in fundamentals, with adjustments in the bond market posing challenges to stock-bond balanced strategies, which may require higher control over position volatility and indirectly affect stock allocation strategies [1] - Potential appreciation pressure on the renminbi may lead to unexpected monetary easing, which could be a source of unexpected changes and break the current fluctuation pattern; until then, the focus should remain on the reassessment of pricing power in resources/traditional manufacturing and corporate overseas expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing volatility due to a policy vacuum, with expectations for a positive policy direction emerging from upcoming meetings in December [1][2]. Macro and Policy - Economic fundamentals have shown relative weakness in the second half of the year, yet risk assets have outperformed safe-haven assets, indicating that asset pricing is driven more by long-term expectations than short-term economic performance [2]. - Optimism regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the anticipated policy strength for 2026 is fueling this positive outlook [2]. - The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are critical for setting the policy tone for 2026 and could serve as a turning point for major asset classes [2]. Overseas Factors - The U.S. labor market remains under pressure, necessitating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, although the long-term impact of the labor market on monetary policy is diminishing [3]. - China's international competitiveness in exports has improved, and the country has mitigated some negative impacts from tariffs through re-export trade, suggesting a better-than-expected foreign trade outlook [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - Following the December meetings, major assets are expected to transition from a state of ambiguity to clearer trends, marking a pivotal moment for asset allocation [4]. - Bond yields are reasonable but lack attractiveness, while stock market valuations have slightly declined, maintaining a high-risk appetite in the market [4]. - There is optimism regarding fiscal policy strength, which may enhance the attractiveness of equity assets [4]. - In terms of bond investments, a focus on medium- to short-term bonds is recommended due to a generally accommodative monetary policy, despite market sentiment being fragile [4]. - For commodities, attention should be given to non-ferrous metals, which are expected to show a clear contraction trend in supply [4].

Group 1 - The core message of the meeting emphasizes the need for the new leadership of the China Securities Association to enhance member recognition, cohesion, and participation to improve collaborative governance and shared effectiveness [1] - The eighth member congress of the China Securities Association elected new leadership, including Zhu Jian as the president and several other industry representatives as executive vice presidents and directors [2] - The newly elected leadership includes prominent figures from various securities firms, indicating a diverse representation within the association [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of the association's role in promoting high-quality development in the capital market through a first-class investment banking and investment institution framework [1] - The election results reflect a strategic move towards strengthening the association's governance structure by involving industry representatives in key positions [2] - The new leadership aims to foster a collaborative environment among members to enhance the overall effectiveness of the association [1][2]