证券代码：600030 证券简称：中信证券 公告编号：临2025-086 中信证券股份有限公司 关于间接子公司发行中期票据 并由全资子公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（万元） | - | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股 子公司对外担保总额（亿元） | 1,933.70 | | 对外担保总额占上市公司最近一 | 65.97 | | 期经审计净资产的比例（%） | | | 特别风险提示 | □对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产 | | | 100% | | | 担保金额超过上市公司最近一期经审计净 | | | 资产50% | | | □对合并报表外单位担保金额达到或超过最 | | | 近一期经审计净资产30%的情况下 | | | 对资产负债率超过70%的单位提供担保 | 1 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保的基本情况 公司境外全资子公司中信证券国际有限公司（以下简称中信证券国际）的附 属公司CSI MTN Limited（以下简称发行人或 ...

Market Overview - The participation fund sector declined by 0.53% on November 14, with Changjiang Securities leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Zhongshun Group (Code: 000039) with a closing price of 8.94, up 9.96% [1] - Guomai Technology (Code: 002093) with a closing price of 11.90, up 2.15% [1] - Major decliners included: - Changjiang Securities (Code: 000783) with a closing price of 8.80, down 2.98% [2] - Huatai Securities (Code: 601688) with a closing price of 22.17, down 2.93% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The participation fund sector experienced a net outflow of 2.136 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.242 billion yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicated that speculative funds had a net inflow of 894 million yuan [2] Detailed Capital Flow by Stock - Key stocks with significant capital flow: - Zhongshun Group had a net inflow of 597 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 378 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Code: 601398) saw a net inflow of 145 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Other stocks like Northeast Securities (Code: 000686) and Hanhua Technology (Code: 600226) showed mixed capital flows with both inflows and outflows from different investor types [3]

Market Overview - On November 14, the securities sector declined by 1.42%, with Changjiang Securities leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Huachuang Yuxin, which rose by 2.41% to a closing price of 7.65, and Dongbei Securities, which increased by 0.70% to 10.10 [1] - Major decliners included Changjiang Securities, which fell by 2.98% to 8.80, and Huatai Securities, down 2.93% to 22.17 [2] Trading Volume and Value - The trading volume for Huachuang Yuxin was 859,400 shares, with a transaction value of 666 million yuan [1] - Changjiang Securities had a trading volume of 1,008,200 shares, with a transaction value of 896 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 3.399 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.989 billion yuan [2] - The net inflow from speculative funds was 1.409 billion yuan [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Dongbei Securities had a net inflow of 19.9 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 3.2652 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Huachuang Yuxin saw a net inflow of 30.2283 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 1.2207 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector shows positive fundamentals with long-term investment value highlighted by three key supporting arguments Group 1: Positive Outlook for Insurance Companies - The expectation for the "opening red" (a term for the first quarter performance) is optimistic, with major listed insurance companies setting targets for Q1 2026 that exceed previous market expectations, driven by competitive account support, increased cooperation with state-owned banks, and the introduction of higher-value long-term products, with anticipated new business value (NBV) growth exceeding 20% for leading companies [1] - The recovery of dividend assets and stable long-term interest rates are beneficial for insurance companies' investment returns, as recent price trends for dividend assets, represented by bank stocks, have been positive, and insurance companies have increased their holdings in these assets, leading to favorable investment returns in Q4 [1] - The performance of insurance companies appears attractive relative to their valuations, with expected return on equity (ROE) for most listed insurers reaching 15-25% for 2025-2026, while current price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are at 1-1.2 times and 0.5-0.7 times, respectively, which are below historical averages [1] Group 2: Index and ETF Information - The insurance securities ETF closely tracks the CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index, which selects securities from the insurance sector based on the CSI 800 Index, providing investors with diversified investment options [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index include China Ping An, Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, China Pacific Insurance, Huatai Securities, China Life, GF Securities, China Merchants Securities, and Dongfang Securities, collectively accounting for 62.44% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant pullback in computing power, particularly affecting optical modules, with major companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication seeing declines of over 4% and 3% respectively. The AI-focused ETF tracking optical module leaders has also dropped over 3% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The AI-focused ETF (159363) has seen a trading volume exceeding 1 billion CNY, with a net subscription of 20 million shares despite the market downturn [1]. - Major US tech stocks, including Oracle and Nvidia, have faced substantial sell-offs, raising concerns about valuations in the AI sector [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities highlights the expanding investment opportunities in the AI sector, particularly in the computing power supply chain and AI applications, predicting a potential replication of the long bull market seen in US stocks since 2023 [3]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to grow significantly, with projections for 800G optical modules to maintain high growth rates and the development of 1.6T and 3.2T modules underway [3]. - The first AI ETF tracking the ChiNext AI Index (159363) has a market size exceeding 3.5 billion CNY and leads in trading volume among similar ETFs, with over 70% of its portfolio focused on computing power [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the e-commerce sector is expected to see moderate growth during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with GMV projected to increase by mid to high single digits, up to 10% year-on-year, due to active subsidies and extended promotional timelines, although this is partially offset by a high sales base from the previous year [1] - Major e-commerce platforms are likely to continue showing differentiated performance, with competition around traffic entry and core user rights expected to remain intense through 2026 [1] - The stabilization of consumer goods prices is identified as a key driver for the performance of e-commerce platforms and upstream suppliers, with potential policy stimuli and changes in consumer sentiment warranting ongoing attention [1] Group 2 - The convertible bond market has seen a significant increase in overall prices and premium rates, necessitating a cautious approach to managing downside risks [2] - The previous cycle of convertible bonds performed exceptionally well, with a 1% increase in high-price indices and notable excess returns from high-value strategies [2] - Current market conditions indicate heightened volatility at high price levels, prompting the need for timely adjustments in response to market trends and sector rotations [2] Group 3 - The AI investment landscape is expanding, with a focus on the computing power supply chain and AI applications, particularly in the context of strong performance from tech stocks in the US and China since 2025 [3] - The computing power sector is leading market gains, with expectations for a sustained bullish trend similar to the US market's performance in 2023 [3] - There are anticipated opportunities for localized explosions in AI applications, with optimism surrounding internet tech giants and rapidly commercializing AI sectors such as AI advertising, AI agents, AI video generation, and autonomous driving [3]

Core Viewpoint - The application of AI and domestic substitution will be the main theme of technology investment in 2026, with AI evolving from isolated technological advancements to broader productivity integration with existing digital infrastructure [1] Market Review - Since 2025, both Chinese and US tech stocks have performed well, with a broad increase in AI computing power. The Chinese market has outperformed, with the CITIC Technology Five Industry Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Nasdaq Index rising by +41%, +30%, and +23% respectively as of November 7, 2025 [2] - AI infrastructure construction remains the main narrative, showing a broad-based increase across the entire industry chain, with CITIC Communications, CITIC Electronics, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by +114%, +72%, and +45% respectively [2] Technology Trends - In 2025, despite the absence of revolutionary AI products, North America's major cloud service providers (CSPs) have consistently invested in AI infrastructure, with capital expenditures (Capex) expected to reach $400 billion, a 60% year-on-year increase [3] - The trend of domestic substitution is becoming inevitable, with domestic manufacturers like Huawei seeking to enhance system-level computing capabilities through communication capabilities [3] Policy Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has successfully met its core indicators, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving technological self-reliance, with a focus on the AI industry chain for 2026 [4] - The plan highlights key areas such as integrated circuits and high-end equipment, indicating strong policy support for the domestic semiconductor and computing industry [4] Investment Logic - The domestic computing chain shows significant earnings elasticity, with potential yet to be fully tapped. The semiconductor equipment and AI chip investments are expected to have clear certainty under the wave of domestic substitution [5] - The model and application side may also see localized explosive opportunities, particularly in AI-enabled internet technology giants and rapidly commercializing AI applications [5] Industry Focus - The domestic computing industry is viewed as a long-term demand and breakthrough area, with a strong belief in the importance of computing power to national strength [6] AI Applications - AI applications in areas such as advertising, coding, and video generation are seeing rapid commercialization, with significant business value already generated [8] - The Robo X industry is expected to enter a phase of scale expansion from 1 to 100 in 2026, driven by advancements in autonomous driving technology and decreasing component costs [8]

Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile rally yesterday, with the three major indices opening low and closing high. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high, while the ChiNext Index rose over 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 969 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.55% [1] E-commerce Insights - Huatai Securities estimates that the GMV for the "Double Eleven" shopping festival may see moderate growth, with a year-on-year increase in the mid-to-high single digits up to 10% [2] - The stable growth is attributed to active subsidies from various platforms and an extended promotional timeline, although it is partially offset by a high sales base from last year's national subsidy actions [2] - The competition among major e-commerce platforms is expected to remain intense, focusing on traffic entry and core user rights, with consumer price stabilization being a key driver for performance [2] Convertible Bonds Analysis - Galaxy Securities notes that the overall price and premium rate of convertible bonds have risen to high levels, necessitating a cautious approach to managing downside risks [3] - The previous cycle saw strong performance in the convertible bond market, with a 1% increase in the high-price index and significant excess returns from high-volatility strategies [3] - The current environment requires monitoring of market trends and sector rotations, especially as high-priced convertible bonds face increased volatility [3] AI Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities highlights the expansion of AI investment opportunities, particularly in the computing power industry chain and AI applications [4] - Since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have performed well, with the computing power sector leading the market [4] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that domestic computing power is gaining momentum, with potential for replicating the long bull market seen in U.S. stocks since 2023, particularly in AI applications like advertising, AI agents, and commercial autonomous driving [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, and the ChiNext Index rising over 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.04 trillion, an increase of 969 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.55% by the end of the trading session [1] Group 2: E-commerce Insights - Huatai Securities estimates that the GMV for the "Double Eleven" shopping festival may see moderate growth, with a year-on-year increase in the mid to high single digits up to 10% [2] - The stable growth is attributed to active subsidies from various platforms and an extended promotional timeline, although it is partially offset by a high sales base from last year's national subsidy actions [2] - Competition among major e-commerce platforms is expected to remain intense, focusing on traffic entry and core user rights, with consumer price stabilization being a key driver for performance [2] Group 3: Convertible Bonds Analysis - Galaxy Securities noted that the overall price and premium rate of convertible bonds have risen to high levels, necessitating caution in managing downside risks [3] - The previous cycle saw strong performance in the convertible bond market, with a 1% increase in high-price indices and significant excess returns from high-volatility strategies [3] - The current environment is characterized by increased volatility, requiring timely adjustments to follow market trends and sector rotations [3] Group 4: AI Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities highlighted the expansion of AI investment opportunities, particularly in the computing power industry chain and AI applications [4] - Since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have performed well, with the computing power sector leading market gains [4] - The potential for localized computing power to replicate the long bull market seen in U.S. stocks since 2023 is promising, with specific AI applications expected to see rapid commercialization [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. stock market is supported by mid-term elections, policy easing, ample liquidity, and a favorable fundamental outlook for 2026. Despite concerns over high valuations and potential risks from high interest rates, the market remains attractive for investment due to strong growth expectations and the increasing market share of MAG8 companies [1][10]. Macroeconomic Environment - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with the federal funds rate projected to decline to 3.25%-3.4% by the end of 2026. This is supported by a weakening job market, with 1.1 million layoffs expected in 2025, and the Fed's recent interest rate cuts [2]. - The fiscal policy, particularly the OBBB Act passed in July 2025, is anticipated to create a $3.4 trillion deficit over the next decade, providing significant tax relief for businesses and contributing to fiscal expansion [3]. Market Liquidity - Four key factors are expected to support liquidity in the U.S. stock market: the expansion of dollar-pegged stablecoins, increased corporate buybacks, a shift of funds from money market funds to equities and bonds, and a resurgence in individual investor participation [4]. Fundamental Outlook - The fundamental outlook for the U.S. stock market is bolstered by strong growth in technology and improvements in the policy environment. The S&P 500 is projected to see revenue and earnings growth of 5.2% and 6.6% in 2025, respectively, with expectations for even higher growth in 2026 [6]. AI Bubble Narrative - The narrative surrounding the potential bursting of the "AI bubble" is considered unlikely in the short term, as demand for AI technologies continues to grow, supported by advancements in chip performance and system capabilities [7]. Private Credit Market Risks - Concerns regarding the private credit market have emerged following recent bankruptcies, but the overall default rate remains moderate, and the impact on the banking sector is expected to be manageable [8]. High Interest Rate Environment - The prolonged high interest rate environment poses risks to the real economy and financial system, with potential implications for the stock market if the Federal Reserve fails to respond timely to emerging risks [9]. Stock Market Outlook - The combination of fiscal and monetary easing is expected to support the continuation of a bull market in U.S. stocks in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, energy infrastructure, military, and financial services [10].