政策引领："十五五"规划强调科技自立自强，2026科技投资仍将聚焦AI产业链。 2)从细分板块看，AI基础设施建设仍然是AI叙事主线，呈现全产业链普涨特征，中信通信/中信电子/费 城半导体指数分别上涨+114%/+72%/+45%，芯片、光模块、PCB、液冷等细分领域表现更为亮眼。同 时，中信证券看到在AI应用方向商业化领先的公司如Applovin、Palantir获得投资人青睐，在涨幅、估值 方面领跑市场。 科技趋势：回顾过去，北美Capex坚定投入;展望未来，国产替代大势所趋。 1)2025年回顾，尽管AI应用尚未出现革命性产品，北美四大CSP仍坚定投入AI基建，践行"算力先行"逻 辑，认可AI应用的潜在巨大价值。2025年以来，北美CSP Capex持续超预期，不断上修2025年资本开支 指引至4000亿美元，同比增长60%。英伟达预计2030年全球AI基础设施市场规模有望达3到4万亿美元， 对应2025~2030 CAGR约40%(即5年增长5~7倍)。 2)2026年展望：北美算力出口持续收紧，国产替代持续突破，国产替代是必然趋势。对于以华为为代表 的国内厂商，单卡性能提升上限低于海外算力芯片厂商， ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile rally yesterday, with the three major indices opening low and closing high. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high, while the ChiNext Index rose over 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 969 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.55% [1] E-commerce Insights - Huatai Securities estimates that the GMV for the "Double Eleven" shopping festival may see moderate growth, with a year-on-year increase in the mid-to-high single digits up to 10% [2] - The stable growth is attributed to active subsidies from various platforms and an extended promotional timeline, although it is partially offset by a high sales base from last year's national subsidy actions [2] - The competition among major e-commerce platforms is expected to remain intense, focusing on traffic entry and core user rights, with consumer price stabilization being a key driver for performance [2] Convertible Bonds Analysis - Galaxy Securities notes that the overall price and premium rate of convertible bonds have risen to high levels, necessitating a cautious approach to managing downside risks [3] - The previous cycle saw strong performance in the convertible bond market, with a 1% increase in the high-price index and significant excess returns from high-volatility strategies [3] - The current environment requires monitoring of market trends and sector rotations, especially as high-priced convertible bonds face increased volatility [3] AI Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities highlights the expansion of AI investment opportunities, particularly in the computing power industry chain and AI applications [4] - Since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have performed well, with the computing power sector leading the market [4] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that domestic computing power is gaining momentum, with potential for replicating the long bull market seen in U.S. stocks since 2023, particularly in AI applications like advertising, AI agents, and commercial autonomous driving [4]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 智通财经11月14日讯，市场昨日震荡拉升，三大指数低开高走，沪指刷新十年新高，创业板指涨超 2%。沪深两市成交额2.04万亿，较上一个交易日放量969亿。板块方面，能源金属、电池、有色金属等 板块涨幅居前，芬太尼、油气等板块跌幅居前。截至昨日收盘，沪指涨0.73%，深成指涨1.78%，创业 板指涨2.55%。 在今天的券商晨会上，华泰证券表示，"双十一"电商GMV或温和增长，平台端延续分化表现；银河证 券提出，当前转债整体价格及溢价率均涨至高位，需适当控制下行风险；中信证券认为，AI投资机会 扩散，关注算力产业链和AI应用。 中信证券表示，2025年以来中美科技股均取得亮眼成绩，算力板块涨幅领跑市场，模型和应用侧亦出现 局部爆发机会。展望2026年，国产算力方兴未艾，业绩弹性及投资确定性兼备，有望复刻美股2023年以 来的长牛行情。模型和应用侧亦有望迎来局部爆发机遇，我们看好AI全面赋能下的互联网科技巨头， 以及AI广告、AI Agent、AI视频生成、商业化自动驾驶等落地速度较快的AI应用赛道。 沪指再创反弹新高，3分钟便捷开户，把握 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. stock market is supported by mid-term elections, policy easing, ample liquidity, and a favorable fundamental outlook for 2026. Despite concerns over high valuations and potential risks from high interest rates, the market remains attractive for investment due to strong growth expectations and the increasing market share of MAG8 companies [1][10]. Macroeconomic Environment - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with the federal funds rate projected to decline to 3.25%-3.4% by the end of 2026. This is supported by a weakening job market, with 1.1 million layoffs expected in 2025, and the Fed's recent interest rate cuts [2]. - The fiscal policy, particularly the OBBB Act passed in July 2025, is anticipated to create a $3.4 trillion deficit over the next decade, providing significant tax relief for businesses and contributing to fiscal expansion [3]. Market Liquidity - Four key factors are expected to support liquidity in the U.S. stock market: the expansion of dollar-pegged stablecoins, increased corporate buybacks, a shift of funds from money market funds to equities and bonds, and a resurgence in individual investor participation [4]. Fundamental Outlook - The fundamental outlook for the U.S. stock market is bolstered by strong growth in technology and improvements in the policy environment. The S&P 500 is projected to see revenue and earnings growth of 5.2% and 6.6% in 2025, respectively, with expectations for even higher growth in 2026 [6]. AI Bubble Narrative - The narrative surrounding the potential bursting of the "AI bubble" is considered unlikely in the short term, as demand for AI technologies continues to grow, supported by advancements in chip performance and system capabilities [7]. Private Credit Market Risks - Concerns regarding the private credit market have emerged following recent bankruptcies, but the overall default rate remains moderate, and the impact on the banking sector is expected to be manageable [8]. High Interest Rate Environment - The prolonged high interest rate environment poses risks to the real economy and financial system, with potential implications for the stock market if the Federal Reserve fails to respond timely to emerging risks [9]. Stock Market Outlook - The combination of fiscal and monetary easing is expected to support the continuation of a bull market in U.S. stocks in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, energy infrastructure, military, and financial services [10].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have shown impressive performance, with the computing power sector leading the market, and there are emerging opportunities in models and applications for 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The computing power sector has outperformed the market, indicating strong growth potential [1] - There is an expectation that domestic computing power will replicate the long bull market seen in US stocks since 2023 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The urgency for development in semiconductor equipment and AI chips has increased due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend [1] - Domestic chip manufacturers have begun exploring solutions like super nodes to overcome performance disadvantages of single cards by leveraging multi-card advantages [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The construction of multi-card clusters raises demands for the quantity and quality of components, creating greater investment opportunities across the supply chain [1] - Specific sectors such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCBs, and quantum computing are expected to see higher performance elasticity [1] Group 4: Application and Model Opportunities - There is potential for localized explosive growth in models and applications, particularly in AI-enabled internet tech giants and rapidly commercializing AI applications such as AI advertising, AI agents, AI video generation, and autonomous driving [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报，根据中电联数据，单9月用电量同比增长4.5%，增速较8月的 5.0%下滑0.5个百分点。分部门看，9月二产用电需求持续修复至5.7%，三产用电需求增速依旧保持韧 性。推荐配置经营具备稳定性且估值重新具备安全边际的水电；兼具业绩弹性及低估值的H股龙头火 电；存在补贴发放预期改善且深度破净的H股绿电；受益数字化和新型电力系统日益融合的新场景及新 模式等，如虚拟电厂、微电网、综能服务、功率预测等。 中信证券主要观点如下： 二产用电持续回升，9月用电增长4.5%。 根据中电联数据(下同)，单9月用电量同比增长4.5%，增速较8月的5.0%下滑0.5个百分点。分部门看，9 月二产用电需求持续修复至5.7%，三产用电需求增速依旧保持韧性；9月气温环比下降明显，叠加去年 同期居民用电量基数较高导致居民单月用电同比增速转负；四大高耗能行业用电需求增速分化，其中黑 色金属行业用电需求同比高增、而非金属行业用电需求较为平淡。分区域看，9月高耗能地区用电增速 为5.8%，维持高位增长；受益出口的带动作用，沿海地区用电同比增速提升至7.2%。 1~9月国内累计新增风电/光伏分别为6,109/2 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the GMV growth rate for the e-commerce sector during the "Double 11" shopping festival (October 9 to November 11) is expected to remain consistent with last year's overall performance [1] E-commerce Performance - Instant retail platforms such as Meituan Flash Purchase and Taobao Flash Purchase have shown impressive growth during this year's event, warranting ongoing attention [1] - Categories like home appliances and 3C digital products, stimulated by national subsidies, have achieved steady growth despite high base comparisons from the previous year [1] - There is a noticeable recovery in discretionary consumption categories such as beauty and apparel, indicating an overall positive trend in consumer demand [1] Future Outlook - It is recommended to monitor the core e-commerce platforms' developments in supply chain capabilities, core user investments, and AI empowerment [1] - Continuous evaluation of the synergy between food delivery, instant retail investments, and e-commerce is suggested for future assessments [1]

Core Insights - Since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have shown impressive performance, with the computing power sector leading the market [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, domestic computing power is on the rise, with performance elasticity and investment certainty expected to replicate the long bull market seen in US stocks since 2023 [1] Sector Analysis - The urgency for development in semiconductor equipment and AI chips has increased due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend [1] - Domestic chip manufacturers have begun to explore solutions such as super nodes to compensate for single card performance disadvantages by leveraging multi-card advantages, facilitating breakthroughs in computing power [1] - The construction of multi-card clusters demands higher quality and quantity of components, presenting greater investment opportunities across the supply chain [1] - Sub-sectors such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCBs, and quantum computing are expected to experience higher performance elasticity [1] Application Opportunities - The model and application side is anticipated to witness localized explosive opportunities, particularly in internet tech giants empowered by AI [1] - Fast-developing AI application sectors include AI advertising, AI agents, AI video generation, and commercial autonomous driving [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that since 2025, both Chinese and American technology stocks have performed remarkably, with the computing power sector leading the market in growth [1] - The outlook for 2026 indicates that domestic computing power is on the rise, showing both performance elasticity and investment certainty, potentially replicating the long bull market seen in U.S. stocks since 2023 [1] - There are expected localized explosive opportunities in models and applications, particularly in AI-enabled internet technology giants and rapidly commercializing AI applications such as AI advertising, AI agents, AI video generation, and automated driving [1]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry has experienced a significant performance surge in Q3 2025, with 42 listed brokerages achieving a total net profit of 169 billion yuan, marking a 62.4% year-on-year increase [1] Revenue Performance - The top five brokerages exhibit a clear "one super, one strong" revenue pattern, with CITIC Securities leading at 55.815 billion yuan, followed by Guotai Junan at 45.892 billion yuan, together contributing 1.01707 billion yuan, which accounts for 57.6% of the top five's total revenue [2] - Guotai Junan's revenue growth of 101.6% is primarily attributed to the merger with Haitong Securities, while China Galaxy and GF Securities reported revenue growth of 44.39% and 41.04%, respectively [2] Net Profit Performance - The industry saw five brokerages surpassing 10 billion yuan in net profit, with CITIC Securities at 23.159 billion yuan and Guotai Junan at 22.074 billion yuan, establishing a "dual giant" market structure [3] - Guotai Junan led in net profit growth at 131.80%, influenced by goodwill from the merger, while CITIC Securities showed a 37.86% increase, indicating strong profitability [4] Brokerage Business - The average daily trading volume in the market reached 1.64 trillion yuan, a 106.1% increase year-on-year, driving brokerage commission income growth of over 50% across the board [5] - Guotai Junan's commission income surged to 10.814 billion yuan, a 142.80% increase, while CITIC Securities led in scale with 10.939 billion yuan, reflecting a 52.90% growth [6] Proprietary Business - The top five brokerages collectively generated 83.579 billion yuan in proprietary business income, accounting for 47.02% of total revenue [6] - CITIC Securities led proprietary income at 31.603 billion yuan, a 45.88% increase, while Guotai Junan exceeded 20 billion yuan with 20.370 billion yuan, marking a 90.11% growth [6] - There is a notable divergence in proprietary income growth rates, with Guotai Junan leading at 90.11%, while Huatai Securities experienced a decline of 15.08% due to a high base effect from a previous year [7]