1月18日下午，国联民生发布《2025年度业绩预增公告》。公司预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者 的净利润20.08亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加16.11亿元，同比增长约406%。 图片来源：公司公告 此前，中信证券、西南证券分别披露业绩快报、业绩预告，2025年受益于资本市场活跃，各项业务显著 增长，业绩得以提升。其中，中信证券2025年净利润达300.51亿元。 国联民生披露的公告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润19.44 亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加15.63亿元，同比增长约410%。 图片来源：公司公告 针对本期业绩预增的主要原因，国联民生表示，报告期内，公司完成通过发行A股股份的方式收购民生 证券股份有限公司控制权，平稳有序推进公司原有业务与民生证券相关业务的高效整合，并将其纳入财 务报表合并范围。 公司主动把握市场机遇，积极探索科技、金融与产业的深度融合，以"协同赋能"和"内生增长"为主线提 升综合金融服务能力，证券投资、经纪及财富管理等业务条线实现显著增长，同时由于上年同期比较基 数较小，本期经营业绩同比大幅提升。 此前也 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive recommendation for the insurance sector, suggesting a favorable outlook for both short-term and long-term performance [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the restructuring of the trillion-yuan health insurance market, with medical insurance continuing to dominate, projected to reach a premium of 944 billion yuan by November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.39% [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of securities firms, with CITIC Securities forecasting a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.75%, and a net profit of 30.05 billion yuan, up 38.46% [3][44]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: high-quality securities firms with significant valuation and performance mismatches, companies in the technology sector benefiting from venture capital, and diversified financial firms with impressive growth rates [3]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The report notes an increase in the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%, aimed at promoting market stability and resilience, with a controlled overall impact expected [2]. - Two securities firms reported strong earnings forecasts for 2025, with CITIC Securities showing significant growth in revenue and net profit due to high market activity [2][44]. Insurance Sector - The health insurance market is expected to see medical insurance as the main product, with a projected market share of approximately 46% by 2025, growing at nearly 7% [4]. - The report indicates that the C-end business will dominate the health insurance market, with a near 70% share by 2025, driven by trends such as expanding coverage and targeting younger demographics [4]. - The report anticipates that medical insurance will be the primary growth driver, influenced by factors like population aging and medical inflation [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: high-quality securities firms with valuation mismatches, technology firms benefiting from venture capital, and diversified financial firms with strong growth [3]. - It highlights the positive short-term outlook for the insurance sector, with expectations of high performance in Q1 due to favorable market conditions [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the financial industry, but it provides specific recommendations for various sectors and companies within the industry [3][21]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a decline this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 2.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.06 percentage points. The banking sector saw a decline of 3.03%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points [1][9]. - The report highlights a structural interest rate cut by the central bank, which is expected to impact various financial sectors, particularly banks and insurance companies. The insurance sector is viewed as being in a critical window for performance and valuation recovery [3][21]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to stabilize the derivatives market, which is expected to benefit well-capitalized and compliant brokerage firms [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 2.63%, with the securities, insurance, and diversified financial indices down by 2.21%, 3.59%, and 1.83% respectively [1][9]. - The banking sector's performance was notably poor, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experiencing declines of 2.20%, 4.08%, 2.40%, and 2.20% respectively [1][9]. 2. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's index fell by 3.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points. The report indicates that regulatory cooling measures have created short-term pressure on the insurance sector, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to asset growth and interest margin recovery [1][13][15]. - Key companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and New China Life are recommended for investment due to their strong fundamentals and recovery potential [3][16]. 3. Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 2.21%, with the report emphasizing the potential benefits of new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the derivatives market. The focus is on larger, well-capitalized firms that can navigate the evolving regulatory landscape [2][17]. - Recommendations include major brokerages like Guotai Junan and Huatai Securities, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in profitability and valuation [2][18]. 4. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's index fell by 3.03%, with the central bank's recent interest rate cut expected to support the sector's performance in the long run. The report suggests that banks may see a gradual recovery in net interest income and profitability [3][21][22]. - Specific banks such as Hangzhou Bank and Ningbo Bank are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, particularly those with previously undervalued positions [3][22].

Core Viewpoint - Inclusive reform is identified as the core content of capital market reform during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the construction of a capital market system based on "expanding financing + strengthening investment + precise regulation + deep opening" [1] Group 1: Capital Market Development - Continuous strengthening of capital market institutional supply will support technological innovation, optimize industrial structure, enhance resident wealth, and build a strong financial nation [1] - The securities industry is expected to encounter significant structural opportunities in investment banking, derivatives, wealth management, and internationalization [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Two investment themes are suggested: 1) Leading securities companies aiming to become international first-class investment banks; 2) Medium to large securities companies with the potential to enter the top tier [1]

Group 1 - The private equity market in China is experiencing a surge, with a notable single-day fundraising of 1 billion yuan by a hundred billion private equity firm, indicating a continuation of the active issuance trend from 2025 [1] - In 2025, over 12,000 new private securities investment funds were registered, nearly doubling from 2024, with more than 60% of these funds focusing on stock strategies [1] - Nearly 90% of private equity products achieved positive returns in 2025, with an impressive average return rate [1] Group 2 - The A-share and commodity markets performed well in 2025, leading to an average return of approximately 29.38% for macro strategy private equity products [2] - Among private equity firms with over 5 billion yuan in scale, top performers included products managed by Jiuxian Investment and Honghu Liang Wentao, with returns exceeding 136.14% [2] - The top private equity firms in the subjective stock category achieved an average return of over 60% in the past three years, with Dongfang Gangwan leading at 147.27% [2] Group 3 - Quantitative private equity firms saw an average return of about 39% in 2025, with Lingjun Investment topping the performance rankings [3] - The average return for index-enhanced products under Huansheng Quantitative was approximately 56.55%, showcasing strong performance in the quantitative sector [3] Group 4 - The incentive mechanisms in quantitative private equity firms have come under public scrutiny, with reports of year-end bonuses reaching 10 million yuan for researchers [4] - The average return for quantitative long strategies was 39.51%, with some top products exceeding 50%, justifying high bonuses [4] - The competition for talent in the industry has intensified, with salaries for PhDs reaching 1 million yuan and internships at 1,000 yuan per day [4] Group 5 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Hong Kong capital market will remain active in 2026, with IPO and refinancing volumes above historical averages, particularly in the AI sector, which is considered "bubble-free" [5] - The return of international long-term capital to the market is significant, with participation in IPOs by US funds increasing from 10%-15% to 85%-90% [5] Group 6 - The recent increase in the minimum margin ratio for financing aims to cool market sentiment without altering the long-term positive trend, as the A-share market approaches a transaction volume of 4 trillion yuan [7] - The current market is not exhibiting systemic risks, and the regulatory framework for leverage is more mature compared to previous years [7] Group 7 - The insurance capital long-term investment pilot program has expanded, with 11 funds now operational, focusing on high-dividend stocks in sectors like industrials and utilities [8] - The total scale of the funds under the Honghu Fund series has reached 92.5 billion yuan, with significant participation from various insurance companies [8] Group 8 - CITIC Securities reported a record net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 38.46%, driven by active capital market conditions [11] - The company served over 17 million clients, with total client assets around 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting strong growth in brokerage and investment banking services [11]

Core Insights - The report highlights that new regulations in derivatives are expected to release positive signals for the non-bank financial sector, with a focus on companies likely to announce performance increases [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% to 14281.08 [10]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.50% month-on-month [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies are expected to continue high growth, with improvements in long-term interest rate spreads anticipated [12][16]. - As of January 12, 2026, the total scale of private equity securities investment funds by insurance capital reached 184.5 billion yuan, with 11 funds established [16]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life for potential investment opportunities [16]. Securities Sector - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized stability and quality improvement in its 2026 work meeting, aiming to prevent market volatility and enhance internal stability [17][18]. - The CSRC's new derivatives regulations aim to standardize the market, encourage risk management, and improve the income structure of brokerage firms [25][26]. - The report indicates that the derivatives market is expected to grow significantly, with the scale of over-the-counter derivatives increasing from 0.32 trillion yuan in 2015 to 2.38 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 29% [26]. Group 3: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a current price of 66.33 yuan, with a target value of 85.17 yuan, indicating a buy rating [6]. - New China Life (601336.SH) is rated as a buy with a current price of 82.09 yuan and a target value of 94.21 yuan [6]. - China Life (601628.SH) is also rated as a buy, with a current price of 47.52 yuan and a target value of 55.47 yuan [6].

Core Viewpoint - The investment plan of 4 trillion yuan by State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan period solidifies expectations for stable and strong growth in power grid investments over the next five years, while clarifying development directions such as ultra-high voltage, direct current transmission, and digital intelligence [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Two key investment directions are recommended: 1) Domestic power equipment leading companies closely related to the domestic power grid investment climate and major projects like ultra-high voltage and flexible direct current [1] 2) Leading companies benefiting from significant domestic construction investments, while also considering high demand in overseas markets or emerging fields like AI [1]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of financing margins does not affect the overall upward trend of the market but will impact its structure [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition among thematic sectors is intensifying, marking the end of a one-sided trend driven solely by narratives and capital relay [1] - As the annual report forecast period approaches, the importance of performance indicators is rising again [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The massive redemption of ETFs is part of a counter-cyclical adjustment, providing a window for allocation funds to enter the market comfortably [1] - An optimal investment portfolio should focus on experiences that are good, have low resistance, and reduce anxiety, based on "resources + traditional manufacturing pricing weight estimation" [1] - Recommended sectors for investment include chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, with opportunities to increase allocation in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) during dips [1] - Enhancing returns can be achieved through selective service consumer products (such as duty-free and aviation) or high-growth sectors (such as semiconductor equipment) [1]

Group 1 - A-shares financing balance has reached a new high of 27,012.4 billion yuan, with a net buy of 1,006.51 billion yuan this week [2][20] - The electronics and computer sectors saw net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan, with amounts of 16.445 billion yuan and 11.438 billion yuan respectively [2][20] - The power equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased fixed asset investments by the State Grid Corporation, projected to reach 400 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [4][21] Group 2 - Notable stocks with significant net purchases include China Ping An (3.343 billion yuan), TBEA (2.279 billion yuan), and Zhongji Xuchuang (1.979 billion yuan) [4][24] - The storage chip sector is experiencing a "super bull market," with DDR5 memory prices rising over 300% since September 2025, and DDR4 prices increasing over 150% [23] - Investors are optimistic about the power sector, with 9% of surveyed investors expressing confidence in this area, driven by the anticipated investments in the power grid [15][33]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of financing margins does not affect the overall upward trend of the market but will impact its structure [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition among thematic sectors is intensifying, marking the end of a one-sided trend driven solely by narratives and capital relay [1] - As the annual report preview period approaches, the importance of performance indicators is rising again [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The massive redemption of ETFs is part of a counter-cyclical adjustment, providing a window for allocation funds to enter the market comfortably [1] - An optimal investment portfolio should focus on experiences that are good, face low resistance, and reduce anxiety, based on "resources + traditional manufacturing pricing weight estimation" [1] - Recommended sectors for investment include chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, with opportunities to increase allocation in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) during dips [1] - Additionally, enhancing returns can be achieved through selective consumer service sectors (such as duty-free and aviation) or high-growth sectors (such as semiconductor equipment) [1]