Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.29 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year but up 41.9% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.27 billion yuan, down 11.5% year-on-year but up 50.2% quarter-on-quarter [2][7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in phosphate resources, fertilizers, and new materials, with phosphate reserves of nearly 800 million tons and an annual production capacity of 14.5 million tons of raw ore. It also has a coal mining capacity of 4 million tons per year and various production capacities for synthetic ammonia, phosphate fertilizers, urea, and compound fertilizers [11] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a decrease in revenue and profit due to price declines in key products. The sales volume for phosphate fertilizers increased by 8.2%, compound fertilizers by 23.2%, and urea by 21.8%. However, prices for phosphate fertilizers, compound fertilizers, and urea decreased by 8.4%, 7.0%, and 21.1% respectively [12][13] Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, product prices are expected to show differentiation, with potential recovery in fertilizer prices as the market transitions from domestic demand to export markets. The company is also focused on internal optimization to reduce expense ratios and improve financial performance [12][13] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.46 billion yuan, 5.54 billion yuan, and 5.65 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a stable growth outlook [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 22.28 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic phosphate fertilizer industry, possessing significant upstream resources in phosphate rock and coal, which provides a clear integrated advantage. Continuous reforms have optimized operating expenses, and long-term profitability is expected to remain at a high level, with dividends anticipated to be sustained at elevated levels. This is the first coverage of the company, leading to the "Buy" rating [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 5.55 billion, RMB 5.76 billion, and RMB 5.83 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.02, RMB 3.14, and RMB 3.18, leading to PE ratios of 7.4x, 7.1x, and 7.0x respectively [5]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue decline of 10.89% to RMB 61.54 billion, while net profit is projected to increase by 17.93% to RMB 5.33 billion. The dividend payout ratio is expected to be 47.86% in 2024 [7][8]. Business Overview - The company has a phosphate rock production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year and coal mining capacity of 4 million tons per year, with a total fertilizer production capacity of 10 million tons per year. The company holds a leading market share in phosphate rock reserves and production [8][30]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from its fertilizer and logistics businesses, with fertilizer contributing significantly to gross profit. In 2024, fertilizer and logistics revenues are expected to be RMB 26.99 billion and RMB 25.58 billion, respectively [32][36]. Market Position and Industry Outlook - The company is positioned as a domestic leader in phosphate fertilizers, with a market share of approximately 19.16% in P2O5 production. The phosphate fertilizer market is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by robust demand from the agricultural sector and increasing consumption in new energy applications [8][12][54]. - The report highlights that the domestic phosphate rock market is experiencing a slight decrease in effective production capacity, while demand is expected to grow due to the development of new energy sectors [54][55]. Dividend Policy - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a planned cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% of the distributable net profit for the years 2024 to 2026. The cash dividends for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were RMB 1.83 billion, RMB 1.82 billion, and RMB 2.55 billion, respectively [49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of 23,219.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,185.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [6][35] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 5,602.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and a net profit of 369.7 billion yuan, which is an increase of 11.8% year-on-year [6][35] - The profitability of the industry showed a sales gross margin of 17.2% in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 0.1% [6][35] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry saw a revenue of 91,986.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while total profits decreased by 8.6% [5][26] - Fixed asset investment in the industry increased by 8.6% year-on-year, but the growth rate declined by 4.8 percentage points [5][26] Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the basic chemical sector experienced revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a net profit increase of 11.8% [6][35] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.2%, reflecting a slight decrease year-on-year but an increase compared to the previous quarter [6][35] Sub-industry Analysis - In 2024, the chlor-alkali and textile chemical products sub-industries showed significant profit growth, with chlor-alkali achieving a net profit growth of 262.8% [40][41] - For Q1 2025, the chlor-alkali sub-industry continued to lead with a net profit growth of 132.2% [41] Key Company Tracking - Major companies in the basic chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, reported significant net profit growth in 2024, with many companies experiencing a decrease in capital expenditures [5][6][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the chemical industry, highlighting the recovery at the bottom of the cycle and the focus on undervalued high-growth stocks [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic assessment of the chemical industry indicates a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term. Natural gas prices are fluctuating at the bottom [3][4]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in profitability for the chemical sector in Q1 2025, driven by terminal inventory replenishment and improved demand, despite ongoing construction projects peaking and declining [3]. - The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 is projected to reach 2.0601 trillion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, while net profit is expected to decline by 3% to 109.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current oil prices are influenced by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff policies, with Brent crude averaging $80.93 per barrel in 2024, down 2% year-on-year. NYMEX natural gas futures are expected to average $2.41 per million British thermal units, down 10% year-on-year [3][4]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a "V"-shaped recovery in market conditions, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 9% year-on-year to 32.8 billion yuan [3]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Chemical, as well as growth stocks in semiconductor materials and OLED technologies [3]. - The tire industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and cost reductions, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire highlighted for potential investment [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential in the chemical sector, particularly in segments like agricultural chemicals and specialty chemicals [3]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in price differentials, with PPI data showing a slow recovery from negative values towards zero [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory levels and price movements in key chemical products, as these factors will influence future profitability and investment opportunities [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of phosphate rock remains stable at a high level, while the volume of phosphate fertilizer and urea has increased but prices have declined. The company's debt-to-asset ratio continues to improve [1][8] - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 13,004 million yuan (YoY -6%, QoQ -12%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,289 million yuan (YoY -12%, QoQ +42%) [8] - The report emphasizes the integrated advantages of the phosphate chemical enterprise and the ongoing optimization of its debt structure, alongside a strategic shift towards fine phosphate chemical business and efficient development of phosphate resources [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 61,336 million yuan, with a projected net profit of 5,518 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 3.01 yuan [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 18.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 21.5% [7] - The debt-to-asset ratio is reported at 49.96%, down 2.30 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating ongoing financial stability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, but maintained stable sales volumes for its main products, indicating overall performance in line with expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 13.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.16% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.21% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.289 billion yuan, down 11.65% year-on-year but up 41.85% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.270 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.25% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 17.23%, down 1.89 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1]. Product Sales and Pricing - Sales volumes for key products showed positive year-on-year growth: - Phosphate: +8.22% - Compound (mixed) fertilizer: +23.17% - Urea: +17.00% - Polyoxymethylene: -4.60% - Yellow phosphorus: +1.64% - Feed-grade dicalcium phosphate: +9.40% [1]. - Sales prices for these products varied, with notable changes including: - Urea: +21.06% year-on-year - Feed-grade dicalcium phosphate: +20.55% year-on-year [1]. Resource and Competitive Advantage - The company has a strong resource advantage with phosphate rock prices expected to remain high due to supply-demand balance, supporting phosphate chemical product prices [2]. - The company ranks among the top in the country for phosphate reserves and annual mining capacity, achieving full self-sufficiency [2]. - A subsidiary has secured exploration rights for a significant phosphate mine, which is expected to enhance the company's resource security and integrated advantages in the phosphate chemical industry [2]. Investor Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling 2.552 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 47.86%, an increase of 7.54 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company aims to maintain a high level of cash dividends and dividend yield in the future due to stable operations and improved debt structure [2]. Investment Outlook - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 5.315 billion, 5.636 billion, and 5.875 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.34%, +6.04%, and +4.25% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.90, 3.07, and 3.20 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.69, 7.25, and 6.96 [3]. - The company is viewed positively due to the sustained high demand for phosphate and its competitive edge as a leading integrated phosphate chemical enterprise, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3].

Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to falling prices of phosphate and urea products, but showed a positive trend in cash flow from operating activities [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.2% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.289 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.7 yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year but up 41.9% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Operating cash flow net amount was 2.85 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - Gross profit was 2.037 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 18.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 15.7%, down 2.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1]. Product Segment Performance - Phosphate revenue was 3.923 billion yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year but up 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 1.277 million tons, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year and 21.6% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Urea revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 754,000 tons, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Compound fertilizer revenue was 1.501 billion yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year but down 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 525,000 tons, an increase of 23.2% year-on-year and 17.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Feed-grade calcium phosphate revenue was 493 million yuan, up 31.9% year-on-year but down 14% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 127,000 tons, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year but down 22.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Industry Trends - The phosphate rock supply-demand situation is tight, with prices expected to remain high; the Zhenxiong phosphate mine is anticipated to provide growth opportunities [3]. - The current market average price for phosphate rock (30%) is 1,020 yuan/ton, remaining at a high level [3]. - The company has 14.5 million tons of phosphate rock production capacity and is actively advancing exploration and planning for the Zhenxiong phosphate mine [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025/26 unchanged, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.4x and 7.6x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. - The target price is set at 26.5 yuan, indicating a 19% upside potential and P/E ratios of 8.9x and 9.0x for 2025 and 2026 respectively, maintaining an outperform rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has released its first quarter report for 2025, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the financial information presented [2][8][20]. Financial Data Summary - The financial statements for the first quarter of 2025 have not been audited [3][7]. - The company reported a total of 11,338,016 shares held in its repurchase account, representing 0.62% of the total shares [4]. - The report includes details on major accounting data and financial indicators, although specific figures are not provided in the excerpts [3][20]. Shareholder Information - The company has confirmed that there are no changes in the top ten shareholders or significant shareholders participating in the securities lending business [5][6]. Board and Supervisory Meetings - The board of directors held a meeting on April 29, 2025, with all nine directors participating and unanimously approving the first quarter report [9][11]. - The supervisory board also convened on the same day, with all six supervisors present, and approved the same report [15][18]. Major Operational Data - The company disclosed its major operational data for the first quarter, including production volumes, sales, and revenue, although specific figures are not detailed in the excerpts [20][21]. - There were no significant changes in the prices of major products and raw materials during the reporting period [21].

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...