Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the international version of the self-developed life simulation game "Heartopia" by Xindong Company (02400) has achieved significant early success, ranking in the top 200 of the Apple Store free charts in over 100 countries/regions as of January 11, 2026. The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 1.704 billion, 2.119 billion, and 2.553 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.16, 16.21, and 13.45 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - "Heartopia" international version has impressive initial download figures, ranking first in the Apple Store free charts in Japan, South Korea, France, Thailand, and other countries, and within the top 20 in Germany, the USA, and Canada, totaling 108 countries in the top 200 [1] - The game has accumulated over 1.6 million downloads on Google Play and approximately 1 million on the Apple Store, with total downloads exceeding 3 million when including PC downloads [1] - The strong user base and high daily active users (DAU) are crucial for the long-term commercialization of "Heartopia," ensuring a solid foundation for the product's extended operation [1] Group 2 - The game's presence on social media platforms is expected to further expand its user base, with significant growth in community engagement observed on platforms like Discord, TikTok, and Instagram [2] - As of January 11, the Discord server grew from 70,000 to over 280,000 members, while TikTok followers increased from 88,000 to over 198,000, and Instagram followers rose from 44,000 to 116,000 [2] - The continuous rise in social media engagement and user-generated content (UGC) is anticipated to enhance the game's visibility and attract more players [2] Group 3 - The international version of "Heartopia" is expected to generate higher revenue than its domestic counterpart, which is set to launch in July 2024 [3] - The growth trend in international user numbers and revenue suggests that "Heartopia" could become the company's top revenue-generating game, supported by the performance of other long-lasting titles like "Torchlight: Infinite" [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for "Heartopia" to strengthen the company's game portfolio and revenue base [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the self-developed life simulation game "Heartopia" by Xindong Company is performing well internationally, ranking in the top 200 of the Apple Store free charts in over 100 countries/regions as of January 11, 2026. The projected net profit for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 1.704 billion, 2.119 billion, and 2.553 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.16, 16.21, and 13.45 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - "Heartopia" international version shows impressive initial download data, ranking first in the Apple Store free charts in Japan, South Korea, France, Thailand, and other countries, and within the top 20 in Germany, the USA, and Canada, totaling 108 countries/regions in the top 200. The cumulative download on Google Play exceeds 1.6 million, with approximately 1 million downloads on the Apple Store, leading to an estimated total of over 3 million downloads when including PC downloads [2]. - The user base of "Heartopia," which emphasizes social interaction, is crucial for its long-term commercialization performance. The strong initial download data supports a solid foundation for the product's long-term operation [2]. Group 2 - The game's content is expected to spread on social media platforms, further expanding its user base. As of January 11, the Discord server had over 280,000 members, TikTok followers increased from 88,000 to over 198,000, and Instagram followers rose from 44,000 to 116,000. The continuous rise in social media presence and user-generated content (UGC) is anticipated to enhance the game's visibility and attract more players [3]. - The international version of "Heartopia" is projected to surpass the domestic version in terms of active users and annual revenue, becoming the company's top revenue-generating game. This growth is supported by the user base trends and the potential of other long-lasting games like "Torchlight: Infinite" [4].

- The report discusses a rotation model for micro-cap stocks, which uses the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" as a key indicator. If the relative net value is above its 243-day moving average, the model suggests investing in micro-cap stocks; otherwise, it recommends switching to the Mao Index. Additionally, the 20-day closing price slope of both indices is considered, and the model opts for the index with a positive slope when their directions diverge [19][25][27] - A timing indicator is constructed based on the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and the volatility crowding degree of micro-cap stocks (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator reaches its threshold, a closing signal is triggered [19][25] - The macro timing model recommends a 60% equity allocation for January, with signal strengths of 50% for economic growth and 60% for monetary liquidity. The model's year-to-date return is 14.59%, compared to 26.87% for the Wind All A Index [44][45][47] - Eight major stock selection factors are tracked across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000). Growth (2.15%) and consensus expectation (0.54%) factors performed well in terms of IC mean, while technical, value, and volatility factors underperformed [49][50][52] - Convertible bond selection factors are constructed based on the relationship between the underlying stock and the convertible bond. The valuation factor uses the parity-to-floor premium rate. Last week, the IC mean of the consensus expectation and growth factors for underlying stocks was relatively high [57][59][60]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is expected to experience high growth on the liability side, particularly through the bancassurance channel, while benefiting from the spring market rally, indicating a sustained bullish trend for insurance stocks [1][6]. Group 1: Market Activity and Trends - January saw a strong market opening with significant trading activity, as the average daily stock fund turnover exceeded 30 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 137% [2]. - The financing balance and margin balance recorded 2,609.9 billion yuan and 17.7 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4% and 6.9% compared to the previous week [2]. - The average daily margin balance since 2026 reached 2,598.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 42% [2]. Group 2: M&A Market Performance - The M&A market in 2025 demonstrated strong performance with a total of 8,151 disclosed M&A events, a slight decrease of 0.72% year-on-year, while the total transaction value reached approximately 25,894 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.12% [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued brokers that are expected to rebound during the spring market rally, with strong recommendations for quality brokers like Guotai Junan [4]. - Attention is drawn to Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned well in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from investments in gene therapy [4]. - Highlighting the impressive growth rates of diversified financial companies, recommendations include Yixin Group, Far East Horizon, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [4]. Group 4: Bancassurance Growth Drivers - The shift of deposits to insurance is anticipated to drive significant growth in the bancassurance channel, with projected incremental funds of 3,057 billion yuan in January, 5,094 billion yuan in Q1, and 11,150 billion yuan for the entire year of 2026, corresponding to growth rates of 91%, 59%, and 28% respectively [5]. - The growth of leading insurance companies is expected to outpace the market due to stricter product entry requirements and improved profitability in the bancassurance channel [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is entering a phase of simultaneous volume and price increases on the liability side, driven by the migration of deposits and strong demand for retirement savings [6]. - The stability or improvement of the stock market and interest rates is crucial for supporting the expansion of large insurance companies' balance sheets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is expected to see robust growth in the individual insurance channel and significant benefits from the bancassurance channel, driven by the migration of deposits and the proactive expansion of large insurance companies in the bancassurance market, leading to an increase in market share by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Premium Growth - It is anticipated that new insurance premiums from listed insurance companies will achieve double-digit growth by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel [2]. - The growth in scale will dilute fixed costs, particularly in the bancassurance channel, resulting in overall profit enhancement [2]. - Since 2020, leading insurance companies have refocused on the bancassurance channel, leading to a 15.6 percentage point increase in market share from 2019 to 2023, reaching 23.8% [2]. Group 2: Customer Behavior and Preferences - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a significant portion of residents will have maturing deposits in 2026, with 50% of respondents expecting 10%-30% and 27.3% expecting 30%-50% of their clients' deposits to mature [3]. - The overall age of customers with maturing deposits is skewed towards older demographics, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products the second choice for reallocating maturing deposits [4]. - Wealth managers prioritize customer returns and the brand of insurance companies when recommending insurance products, with customer returns rated highest at 5.5 points [5]. Group 3: Bancassurance Channel Dynamics - The bancassurance channel is projected to see significant inflows, with estimated incremental funds of 3,057 billion, 5,094 billion, and 11,150 billion for January, Q1, and the entire year of 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 91%, 59%, and 28% [5]. - The growth rate is expected to be higher for leading insurance companies, continuing the trend of concentration in the bancassurance channel [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector is recommended for active investment, with expectations of sustained high growth in the liability side and favorable market conditions for assets [6]. - The anticipated growth in the bancassurance channel, coupled with a favorable environment for stock markets and interest rates, is expected to support the expansion of large insurance companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is expected to experience high growth on the liability side, particularly through the bancassurance channel, while benefiting from the spring market rally, leading to a sustained performance in insurance stocks [1][6]. Group 1: Market Activity - The market welcomed the new year with increased trading activity, with daily stock fund turnover exceeding 30 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 137% [2]. - As of January 9, the financing and margin trading balances reached 2,609.9 billion yuan and 17.7 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 3.4% and 6.9% from the previous week [2]. - The average daily margin trading balance since 2026 has been 2,598.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42% [2]. Group 2: M&A Market Performance - The M&A market in China showed strong performance in 2025, with a total of 8,151 disclosed M&A events, a slight decrease of 0.72% year-on-year, while the total transaction value reached approximately 25,894 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.12% [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued brokers that are expected to rebound during the spring market rally, with strong recommendations for quality brokers with significant valuation and performance mismatches, particularly Guotai Junan [4]. - Attention should also be given to Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned well in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from investments in gene therapy [4]. - Highlighting the impressive growth rates in diversified financial services, companies like Yixin Group, Far East Horizon, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings are recommended for investment [4]. Group 4: Bancassurance Growth - The bancassurance channel is projected to be a major driver of new business and new business value (NBV) growth in 2026, with a significant increase in household savings since 2020 [5]. - The estimated incremental funds for the bancassurance channel in January, Q1, and the entire year of 2026 are 305.7 billion yuan, 509.4 billion yuan, and 1,115 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 91%, 59%, and 28% [5]. - Larger insurance companies are expected to outperform in growth due to stricter product entry requirements and improved profitability in the bancassurance channel [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The insurance sector is entering a favorable cycle with simultaneous increases in volume and price, driven by the migration of deposits and strong demand for retirement savings [6]. - The cost of existing liabilities is expected to decrease, while new policies will benefit from favorable interest spreads, supporting the expansion of large insurance companies [6].

Group 1 - The improvement in market liquidity is identified as the direct driver for the A-share market's rise since late December 2025, with a notable increase of over 125 billion yuan in margin financing balance within half a month [1] - The active financing buying has significantly boosted the total trading volume of the A-share market by over 35%, alongside a rebound in implied volatility of broad-based index options [1] - Historical data shows that similar conditions, where the A-share market rose nearly 10% with a trading volume increase exceeding 30%, have occurred six times in the past decade, with four instances occurring at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Following significant volume increases, there is a high probability of the A-share market strengthening over the next 10, 20, and 250 trading days based on historical trends [1] - However, the overall high success rate should not overlook structural overheating, as the commercial aerospace index has seen a substantial rise in turnover rate and trading volume share [1] - The speed of the increase in trading volume share has outpaced several key thematic market trends since 2020, indicating a need for fundamental support to match the rapid rise in trading concentration [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Fund Selection Strategy Based on Trading Motivation Factor and Stock Spread Income Factor - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines the trading motivation factor and the stock spread income factor to select funds with high stock spread income, active trading motivation, and low likelihood of performance manipulation[2][24] - **Model Construction Process**: - The **trading motivation factor** is derived from fund report data, including fund flows, stock buy/sell amounts, and the proportion of top 20 stocks traded[47] - The **stock spread income factor** is calculated from the stock spread income in the fund's profit statement[47] - The strategy adopts a semi-annual rebalancing approach, adjusting positions at the end of March and August each year, and selects funds from active equity funds after deducting transaction costs[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has shown long-term outperformance against the Wind Active Equity Hybrid Fund Index, with a fee-adjusted annualized excess return of 3.64% since March 2011[24][28] 2. Model Name: Fund Selection Strategy Based on Fund Manager Trading Uniqueness - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy evaluates the uniqueness of fund managers' trading behaviors by constructing a network based on their holdings and transactions, aiming to identify funds with distinctive trading styles[3][32] - **Model Construction Process**: - A network is built using detailed fund manager holdings and transaction data - A metric is calculated to measure the uniqueness of each fund manager's trading behavior compared to their peers[48] - The strategy adopts a semi-annual rebalancing approach, adjusting positions in early April and September each year, and selects funds from active equity funds, general stock funds, and flexible allocation funds after deducting transaction costs[32] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has demonstrated significant outperformance, achieving a fee-adjusted annualized excess return of 5.66% since its inception[32][36] 3. Model Name: Industry-Themed ETF Selection Strategy Based on Filing Information - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy leverages the forward-looking information from the public disclosure stage of ETF filing materials to construct an industry-themed filing similarity factor (T+1), aiming to capture market investment hotspots[4][39] - **Model Construction Process**: - The T+1 factor is constructed by calculating the similarity between the indices tracked by newly filed ETFs and existing market indices[48] - The strategy adopts a monthly rebalancing approach, selecting ETFs from industry-themed ETFs with a transaction fee rate of 0.1% per side, using the CSI 800 Index as the benchmark[39] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has consistently outperformed the CSI 800 Index since December 2018, with a fee-adjusted annualized excess return of 11.33%[39][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Fund Selection Strategy Based on Trading Motivation Factor and Stock Spread Income Factor - **December 2025 Return**: 1.56% (vs. 3.06% for the benchmark)[28] - **Annualized Return**: 10.85% (vs. 7.33% for the benchmark)[28] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.62% (vs. 19.97% for the benchmark)[28] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.50 (vs. 0.37 for the benchmark)[28] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 48.39% (vs. 45.42% for the benchmark)[28] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 3.64%[28] - **IR**: 0.61[28] - **Excess Maximum Drawdown**: 19.22%[28] - **December 2025 Excess Return**: -1.54%[28] 2. Fund Selection Strategy Based on Fund Manager Trading Uniqueness - **December 2025 Return**: 5.36% (vs. 3.06% for the benchmark)[36] - **Annualized Return**: 13.40% (vs. 7.87% for the benchmark)[36] - **Annualized Volatility**: 19.52% (vs. 18.30% for the benchmark)[36] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.69 (vs. 0.43 for the benchmark)[36] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 37.26% (vs. 45.42% for the benchmark)[36] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 5.66%[36] - **IR**: 1.09[36] - **Excess Maximum Drawdown**: 10.84%[36] - **December 2025 Excess Return**: 2.27%[36] 3. Industry-Themed ETF Selection Strategy Based on Filing Information - **December 2025 Return**: 5.84% (vs. 3.31% for the benchmark)[43] - **Annualized Return**: 19.22% (vs. 6.90% for the benchmark)[43] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.05% (vs. 18.85% for the benchmark)[43] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.91 (vs. 0.37 for the benchmark)[43] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 34.89% (vs. 42.96% for the benchmark)[44] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 11.33%[44] - **IR**: 0.64[44] - **Excess Maximum Drawdown**: 19.07%[44] - **December 2025 Excess Return**: 2.53%[44]

（文章来源：第一财经） 国金证券指出，2026年行业需求保持增长及终端风机价格持续向上背景下，看好各环节盈利弹性进一步 释放，同时随着基本面持续性改善并逐步扭转市场对风电板块的固有偏见，行业估值体系有望实现价值 重塑，重点推荐三条主线：1）制造端盈利确定性改善，同时行业格局有望持续优化的整机环节；2）受 益于国内深远海项目渗透率提升、出海业务升级的海缆、基础环节；3）受益于国内技术变化等结构性 机会以及海外市占率有望提升的零部件企业。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the personnel change at Guojin Securities, with former chief analyst Jiang Tao from GF Securities joining as the deputy director and chief analyst for public utilities and environmental coal industries [2] - Jiang Tao has a background in financial engineering with bachelor's and master's degrees from Wuhan University and has been involved in environmental industry research since 2018 and public utilities research since 2022 [2][4] - Jiang Tao aims to simplify complex research conclusions and transform dull data into engaging research, focusing on leading the research on dividend assets at Guojin Securities [4] Group 2 - The article notes that Jiang Tao's joining coincides with the deepening of the Guojin Securities Research Institute's 3.0 reform, which has seen a significant increase in research personnel to nearly 180, forming over 30 teams covering various sectors [4] - The director of the research institute, Su Chen, emphasizes the importance of collaborative, digital, and forward-looking research, aiming to enhance the influence and pricing power of core research teams [4] - The article suggests that the landscape of sell-side research institutions will continue to evolve, with increasing demands for research depth, industry chain linkage, and forward-looking insights [4]