风险提示：炼化下游需求不及预期；能源原料价格剧烈波动；新材料项目建设不及预期等 最新盈利预测明细如下： 东海证券股份有限公司谢建斌,吴骏燕近期对恒力石化（600346）进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司简评报 告：石化周期底部盈利暂时承压，"反内卷"下龙头优势有望凸》，给予恒力石化买入评级。 恒力石化 投资要点 2025上半年石化行业供需承压，公司业绩同比下降：2025年上半年，恒力石化实现营业总收入1038.87亿元， 同比下降7.69%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为30.5亿元，同比下降24.08%。其中，第二季度的业绩压力更 为明显，营收同比减少13.5%，环比减少17.8%；归母净利润同比下滑46.8%，环比下滑51.3%。业绩下滑主要 受两方面因素影响：一是产品价差收窄。上半年，国际原油价格宽幅震荡，布伦特原油均价同比下跌约 15%，炼化企17.15业承受一定库存损失，同时，石化需求恢复缓慢，炼化产能仍在释放，周期底部产品价格 703,910价差承压。二是第二季度公司对乙烯装置进行了计划检修，短期内影响相关化工品的产量76.89%并推 高单位生产成本，对当季业绩造成了一定扰动。 经营性现金流净额同比大增 ...

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Hengli Petrochemical is 17.15 yuan, up by 0.05 yuan from the previous trading day, with an opening price of 17.10 yuan, a high of 17.50 yuan, and a low of 16.84 yuan, with a trading volume of 458,160 hands and a transaction amount of 786 million yuan [1] - Hengli Petrochemical is a leading domestic petrochemical company, with main businesses covering oil refining, PTA, and polyester new materials, possessing a complete industrial chain from crude oil processing to polyester new materials, widely used in textiles, packaging, and electronics [1] - On August 25, a block trade occurred involving 11.6945 million shares, with a transaction amount of 200 million yuan at a price of 17.10 yuan, which is a discount of 0.29% compared to the closing price of that day, accounting for 25.43% of the total transaction amount, with the buyer being Huatai Securities Shanghai Branch and the seller being China Galaxy Securities Dalian Renmin Road Branch [1] Group 2 - On that day, the net outflow of main funds for Hengli Petrochemical was 45.239 million yuan, accounting for 0.04% of the circulating market value, while the cumulative net inflow of main funds over the past five days was 213.1349 million yuan, accounting for 0.18% of the circulating market value [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, particularly for refrigerants and glyphosate, with a focus on the refining sector due to policy catalysts [1][4]. Core Insights - Glyphosate prices continue to rise, driven by strong downstream demand and sufficient orders from overseas markets, with the price reaching 26,899 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][17]. - The demand for refrigerants, particularly R32, is increasing due to high summer temperatures, with R32 prices rising by 1,000 CNY/ton to 58,500 CNY/ton [4][32]. - The refining industry is gaining attention due to policy changes in South Korea and China, which may lead to capacity reductions and increased operational efficiency [4][5]. Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - The report tracks significant price changes in various chemical products, with notable increases in acrylic acid and PTA, while some products like tetrachloroethylene saw declines [13][14]. (2) Polyurethane: MDI and TDI Price Trends - MDI prices have decreased due to weak demand from end-users, while TDI prices have also dropped amid seasonal demand pressures [15][16]. (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Glyphosate and Urea Price Increases - Glyphosate prices are on the rise, with a reported weekly production of 8,600 tons and a slight decrease in inventory levels [17][21]. - Urea and potassium chloride prices have also increased, attributed to export agreements and tight supply conditions [21][25]. (4) Fluorochemicals: R32 and Refrigerant Price Increases - R32 and other third-generation refrigerants have seen price increases due to steady demand and supply constraints [26][32]. (5) Tire Industry: Rubber and Additive Price Movements - The report notes fluctuations in rubber prices, with a slight increase in styrene-butadiene rubber and stable prices for other additives [34][36].

进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生23笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为10.62亿元。该股近5个交易日累 计上涨13.43%，主力资金合计净流入2.08亿元。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 8月25日，恒力石化收涨0.29%，收盘价为17.15元，发生1笔大宗交易，合计成交量1169.45万股，成交 金额2亿元。 第1笔成交价格为17.10元，成交1,169.45万股，成交金额19,997.60万元，溢价率为-0.29%，买方营业部 为华泰证券股份有限公司上海分公司，卖方营业部为中国银河证券股份有限公司大连人民路证券营业 部。 责任编辑：小浪快报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a revenue of 103.88 billion yuan, down 7.69% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.05 billion yuan, down 24.08% year-on-year [6] - The company has initiated a mid-term dividend, distributing 0.08 yuan per share, totaling 563 million yuan, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 18.46% [6] - Future profitability forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 8 billion, 10 billion, and 12 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15X, 12X, and 10X [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 243.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 8.02 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is projected at 10.9%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.5% [5] Market Data - As of August 22, 2025, the closing price is 17.10 yuan, with a market capitalization of 120.369 billion yuan [1] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.8 and a dividend yield of 2.63% based on the most recent dividend [1]

Company Overview - Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is located in Dalian, Liaoning Province, and was established on March 9, 1999, with its listing date on August 20, 2001. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of polyester fibers, polyester films, and related products, as well as the production and sales of steam and electricity, PTA production and sales, and refining and petrochemical businesses [1]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 103.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.050 billion yuan, down 24.08% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 25.573 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.039 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - On August 25, Hengli Petrochemical's stock price increased by 2.05%, reaching 17.45 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 358 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.30%. The total market capitalization stood at 122.832 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 17.11%, with a 15.41% increase over the last five trading days, an 11.08% increase over the last 20 days, and an 18.71% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Hengli Petrochemical was 74,400, a decrease of 0.75% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 0.75% to 94,588 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited ranked as the fifth largest, holding 239 million shares, an increase of 23.2252 million shares from the previous period [3]. Business Segmentation - The main revenue composition of Hengli Petrochemical includes refining products (45.92%), PTA (31.10%), polyester products (19.24%), and others (3.73%) [1]. - The company is classified under the Shenwan industry as part of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, specifically in refining and trade [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong performance, breaking through last year's high, with expectations for continued upward movement supported by reasonable valuations and new positive factors such as a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in public fund issuance [2][3] - The weighted REITs index has decreased by 1.52% during the week of August 18-22, 2025, indicating a downward trend in the secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs [2] Credit Bonds - A total of 375 credit bonds were issued from August 18 to August 22, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 376.74 billion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.45% [3] - The total transaction volume of credit bonds reached 1,286.40 billion, up 16.04% week-on-week, with commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes being the top three in transaction volume [3] Convertible Bonds - The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.8% during the week, with a year-to-date increase of 17.9%, slightly below the equity market performance [4] - Current valuations of convertible bonds are close to or exceed historical highs, yet the equity market remains robust, suggesting continued strong performance in the convertible bond market [4] High-end Manufacturing - Exports of engineering machinery maintained double-digit growth, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing year-on-year increases of 24%, 30%, and 25% respectively [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies like QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Xugong Machinery due to their strong export performance [6] TMT Sector - The company SUTENG has seen rapid growth in its robotics business, indicating a successful strategic transformation [6] - The report highlights the importance of SUTENG's self-research technology and its competitive advantages in the ADAS and robotics ecosystem [6] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The report notes a slight decline in pig prices, with the average price of live pigs at 13.75 yuan/kg, down 0.07% week-on-week [6] - The government has initiated pork storage measures to boost market sentiment, suggesting a potential recovery in pig prices [6] Medical and Biological Sector - The report recommends increasing allocations to the medical device sector, highlighting undervalued companies in Hong Kong and those with strong growth potential [7] - Companies like Weikang Medical and Mindray Medical are noted for their robust growth and research capabilities [7] Petrochemical Sector - The report indicates a significant market opportunity for the renovation of old refineries, with companies like Sinopec Engineering and PetroChina Engineering expected to benefit [7] - The report emphasizes the trend of "de-involution" in the refining industry, which may lead to a substantial market for dismantling and renovation [7] Basic Chemicals - The second phase of phosphate fertilizer export quotas has been allocated, with leading companies expected to benefit from high overseas prices [7] - The report anticipates continued high demand for high-grade phosphate rock in the short to medium term [7] Non-Banking Financials - AIA Insurance has seen new business value reach new highs, with stable growth in operating profits [10] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for AIA for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Real Estate - The property management sector shows steady growth, with a stable dividend outlook from companies like Yuexiu Services [10] - The report notes a slight decline in net profit but maintains a positive outlook due to strong project delivery from related companies [10] Electric New Energy - The report highlights the growth potential in the energy storage battery sector, with companies like Yiwei Lithium Energy expected to benefit from increased demand [24] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, reflecting a strong competitive position in the market [24] Textile and Apparel - The report indicates a decline in profit margins for companies like Li Ning, despite revenue growth [34] - The company is expected to maintain a strong brand presence, with a "buy" rating maintained [34]

Group 1 - The domestic key refining project price difference this week is 2579 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton (up 1%) compared to the previous week [2] - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY this week are 6789, 7100, and 7986 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 61, 57, and 57 yuan/ton [2] - The average profit for the POY, FDY, and DTY industries this week is 35, -25, and -34 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +18, +16, and +16 yuan/ton [2] Group 2 - The inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 13.8, 22.7, and 27.8 days respectively, showing week-on-week decreases of 2.3, 0.6, and 0.4 days [2] - The operating rate for long filaments is 90.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous week [2] - The operating rate for weaving machines this week is 60.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous week [2] Group 3 - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene have decreased this week [2] - The average PX price this week is 841.1 USD/ton, an increase of 9.0 USD/ton compared to the previous week [2] - The PX operating rate is 84.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous week [2]

Group 1: North Exchange Specialized and Innovative Index - The North Exchange Specialized and Innovative Index focuses on innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, emphasizing "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" small giants, providing differentiated value as a rare high-quality small-cap growth index in the market [11][12] - The index consists of high-quality underlying assets, with a market capitalization median of 3.74 billion yuan, lower than other indices, indicating a focus on smaller companies [11] - The index has shown high growth potential, with a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.4% over the past three years, and a high research and development investment ratio of 6.2% [11] Group 2: Saint Bella (2508HK) - Saint Bella is a well-known company in the high-end confinement service sector, aiming to provide comprehensive family care services from pregnancy to elderly care, with a projected adjusted net profit of 117 million, 191 million, and 287 million yuan for 2025-2027 [3][14] - The company has established four core advantages: strong brand recognition in high-end confinement services, a light asset model with standardized training, vertical and horizontal expansion in family services, and international market penetration targeting overseas Chinese [17] - The family care industry in China is expected to grow from 392.8 billion yuan in 2019 to 711.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.6%, indicating a favorable market environment for Saint Bella [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly highlighting the potential recovery in China's refining sector due to planned capacity reductions in South Korea [5][12]. Core Insights - South Korea plans to cut up to 25% of its naphtha cracking capacity, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of China's refining sector. This decision comes as South Korean petrochemical companies face significant profit declines due to increased competition from Chinese production and weak demand in recent years [5][6]. - The report indicates that the operating rates of South Korea's petrochemical industry have fallen to historically low levels, necessitating urgent measures to address the oversupply issue [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the reduction in South Korean supply could lead to tighter imports of refined products in China, particularly aromatic products, thereby enhancing the recovery prospects for the domestic refining industry [12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $67.73 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week growth of 2.85%. WTI prices also rose to $63.66 per barrel, up 1.37% [17]. - As of August 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 421 million barrels, a decrease of 6.01 million barrels from the previous week, indicating a tighter supply situation [19]. Refining Sector - The integrated margin for Singapore's refining products decreased to $12.99 per barrel, down by $2.09 from the previous week, indicating pressure on refining profitability [50]. - The report notes that while refining margins have improved slightly, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual recovery as economic conditions improve [5][47]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation for the polyester sector, with potential upward movement in profitability as supply-demand dynamics improve. Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [12].