（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月30日，铜产业指数跌超2%，成分股多数走低。其中，白银有色跌停，江西铜业跌 4.37%，云南铜业跌4.15%，精艺股份跌3.57%，紫金矿业跌3.37%。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net sell-off of 34.14 billion HKD from northbound capital, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect experiencing a net sell of 3.31 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect a net sell of 30.84 billion HKD [2] - The most bought stocks by northbound capital included China Merchants Bank (600036) and Huahong Semiconductor (01347), while the most sold stocks included China Mobile (600941) and Alibaba-W (09988) [2] - China Merchants Bank received a net buy of 9.71 billion HKD, supported by recent developments including the establishment of its investment arm and participation in funding for Deep Blue Automotive [6] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper (00358) received a net buy of 22.59 million HKD, with plans to acquire SolGold for up to 7.64 billion GBP, enhancing its position as a major shareholder [7] - Huahong Semiconductor saw a net buy of 2.62 billion HKD, while SMIC experienced a net sell of 752 million HKD, amid price increase announcements for certain semiconductor products [6] - Tencent (00700) and Alibaba-W (09988) faced net sells of 3.18 billion HKD and 10.24 billion HKD respectively, with market analysts suggesting caution in the current environment despite potential short-term gains [7][8]

沪指12月29日上涨0.04%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有10个，涨幅居前的行业为石油石化、国防军 工，涨幅分别为1.48%、1.43%。跌幅居前的行业为有色金属、公用事业，跌幅分别为1.95%、1.24%。 有色金属行业位居今日跌幅榜首位。 605376 博迁新材 5.56 3.26 1379.20 有色金属行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603993 | 洛阳钼业 | -4.41 | 1.94 | -109862.42 | | 600362 | 江西铜业 | 1.41 | 6.56 | -104962.10 | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | -4.54 | 5.05 | -68899.68 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | -4.74 | 5.67 | -60331.70 | | 002240 | 盛新锂能 | -6.19 | 7.96 | -39038.27 | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | -3.29 | 3.23 | -37509.87 ...

Report Title - Market Game Intensifies, Copper Price Reaches 100,000 - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.12.29 [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Core Views Copper - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [3]. - Fundamental: Global copper inventories are shifting to the US market, and there is still an expectation of supply tightness. High - priced copper suppresses short - term demand, but long - term demand from emerging fields like AI may be a breakout point [3]. - Overall: The medium - term bullish logic for copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term attention on macro sentiment and capital flow disturbances [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [5]. - Fundamental: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4.439 million tons with a slight increase. December is the traditional off - season, but consumption in industries like automotive, power, and electronics is resilient, and the aluminum ingot social inventory has not entered a continuous accumulation phase [5]. - Overall: With little change in fundamentals and the market trading on the Fed's rate - cut expectation, aluminum prices may remain high [5]. Alumina - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [6]. - Fundamental: As of December 25, the national metallurgical alumina installed capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 88.085 million tons/year with a flat weekly operating rate of 79.85%. Alumina plants are continuously accumulating inventory [6]. - Overall: The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, but an article from the National Development and Reform Commission boosts market sentiment, and the rebound situation should be monitored [6]. Report Recommendations Copper - For the SHFE Copper 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 105,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 95,000 yuan/ton [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - For the SHFE Aluminum 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 22,800 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Alumina - For the Alumina 2605 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 2,900 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 2,600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Weekly Market Performance - Provided the week - on - week cumulative price change statistics for various metals from December 22 - 26 [11]. Weekly News - The National Development and Reform Commission published an article on promoting the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, emphasizing management and layout for resource - constrained industries like alumina and copper smelting [12]. - The China Copper Industry Joint Procurement Group (CSPT) stopped setting a guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026, reflecting a new stage in the bargaining power game between domestic smelters and miners [12]. - Jiangxi Copper announced an offer to acquire SolGold plc, valuing the target company at about £867 million [12]. - Gree Electric stated it has no immediate plan to replace copper with aluminum in air - conditioners due to performance differences [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the approved storage capacities of several alumina delivery warehouses and added a new storage point [12]. 02 Macro Analysis Domestic Market - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of these enterprises decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. Overseas Market - The initial estimate of the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%, significantly higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%. After the GDP data release, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut slightly decreased [16]. 03 Non - ferrous Market Analysis Copper - **Spot Market**: Provided data on copper premiums, refined - scrap copper price differences, and other indicators [21]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the position data of SHFE copper futures, options, and international copper futures [24]. - **Overseas Market**: Analyzed the price differences between US and LME copper, LME copper premiums, and the relationship with the US dollar index [27]. - **Market Inventory**: Showed the inventory data of SHFE copper, Shanghai bonded area copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [30]. - **Downstream Consumption**: As of December 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 14.96% week - on - week, and the domestic major refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate was 60.73%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.34 percentage points [34]. Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Provided data on A00 aluminum ingot premiums, aluminum alloy price differences, and social inventories of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum [36]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the position data of aluminum futures, options, and alumina futures and options [39]. - **Overseas Market**: Analyzed LME aluminum premiums, the relationship with the US dollar index, and LME aluminum total inventory [42]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 60.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 percentage points [44]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of December 26, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 250 yuan/ton week - on - week to a new high for the year [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: Analyzed the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum and its relationship with raw material prices [51]. Alumina - **Spot Market**: Provided data on alumina prices in different regions, the average spot price index, and raw material prices [54]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the relationship between alumina inventory futures, futures closing prices, and the prices of related products [57]. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of December 25, the alumina supply was stable, and the demand slightly increased due to the new production capacity release of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 25, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,940.91 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 227.82 yuan/ton [61].

Group 1 - The article highlights the National Development and Reform Commission's recent emphasis on optimizing the management and layout of the alumina and copper smelting industries, encouraging mergers and acquisitions among major enterprises in these sectors [1] - Morgan Stanley notes that alumina prices are under pressure due to increased supply, with current production capacity reaching 110 million tons and an utilization rate of 84%, while domestic demand in China has nearly reached its limit [1] - The new policy may restrict the planning of additional alumina production capacity, and capacity consolidation is expected to benefit industry leaders such as China Aluminum (601600) and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees, along with long-term contract concentrate volumes, may lead to a reduction in refined copper production by 2026 [1] - Despite these factors, stable demand is expected to support copper prices at high levels, benefiting companies like Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Minmetals Resources (01208), and Jiangxi Copper (600362) [1]

江西铜业股份(0358.HK)盘中一度涨超12%至41.98港元，创历史新高，半日收涨近10%报40.92港元。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

12月29日，江西铜业股份(0358.HK)盘中一度涨超12%至41.98港元，创历史新高，半日收涨近10%报40.92港元。消息面上， 公司宣布，附属江铜香港投资及索尔黄金董事会，已就以全现金收购索尔黄金全部已发行及将要发行的普通股股本的条款 达成协议。江铜香港投资将可能支付的最高总对价将不超过7.64亿英镑。 江西铜业称，公司自2020年11月起为索尔黄金股东，现为索尔黄金最大单一股东，持有索尔黄金已发行股本约12.2%。索尔 黄金的旗舰项目Cascabel位于厄瓜多尔北部因巴布拉省，为全球最重要的未开发斑岩型铜金矿床之一，并有望成为南美洲的 标志性矿业项目。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：栎树 ...

江西铜业称，公司自2020年11月起为索尔黄金股东，现为索尔黄金最大单一股东，持有索尔黄金已发行股本约12.2%。索尔黄金的旗舰项目Cascabel位于厄 瓜多尔北部因巴布拉省，为全球最重要的未开发斑岩型铜金矿床之一，并有望成为南美洲的标志性矿业项目。 江西铜业股份(0358.HK)盘中一度涨超12%至41.98港元，创历史新高，半日收涨近10%报40.92港元。消息面上，公司宣布，附属江铜香港投资及索尔黄金董 事会，已就以全现金收购索尔黄金全部已发行及将要发行的普通股股本的条款达成协议。江铜香港投资将可能支付的最高总对价将不超过7.64亿英镑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Huabao ETF (159876), which focuses on the non-ferrous metals sector, has seen a significant increase in market performance, with a peak intraday rise of 0.5%, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huabao ETF recorded a net subscription of 10.2 million shares, indicating positive market sentiment towards the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The ETF's net value has shown substantial growth, with a 120-day increase of 91.93% and a 250-day increase of 84.44% [1] - The ETF's 52-week high is 1.00, while the low is 0.49, showcasing significant volatility in its trading range [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Notable stocks within the ETF include Baiyin Nonferrous, which surged by 10.05%, and Hunan Baiyin, which increased by 10.01% [2] - Other significant gainers include Xingye Yinxin with an 8.28% rise and Guangsheng Nonferrous with a 5.65% increase [2] - The overall trend in the non-ferrous metals sector has been bullish, with LME copper and COMEX gold reaching historical highs [2] Group 3: Market Drivers - Factors driving the non-ferrous metals market include limited resource supply, strong demand from AI, and a downward trend in interest rates, which are creating a new pricing paradigm for resources [3] - The sustainability of the super cycle in non-ferrous metals is contingent on the recovery of the US dollar credit, strategic stockpiling progress, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [3] - Analysts suggest that the super cycle for non-ferrous metals is likely to continue until 2026, supported by a weak dollar and policy backing [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao ETF is recommended to capture the overall beta performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, which includes copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium [4] - This strategy aims to mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the index and various stocks experiencing notable gains, particularly in silver and copper prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.56%, with key stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up by 10.05% and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up by 4.68% [1]. - The surge in precious metals, especially silver, is attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data, which has fueled expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with major players including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [3]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and includes 50 prominent securities from the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry [2][4].