4月25日，国民品牌海澜之家与国际马术联合会官方服装供应商合作签约仪式在北京举行。 仪式现场 仪式上，海澜集团创始人周建平、海澜飞马水城总经理沈厚锋先与国际马术联合会主席、夏奥国际单项协会联合会主席、国际奥委会委员Ingmar De Vos和 国际马术联合会秘书长Sabrina Ibá？ez一同签署了"国际马联和海澜之家官方服装供应商合作协议"。国际马联副主席、国际马联第八区主席黄启芳，国际马 联第八区副主席、柬埔寨王国公主HRH Princess Nanda-Devi NORODO，国际马联顾问Ralph Straus，国际马联高级项目经理樊桦，中国马术协会秘书长钟国 伟，中国马术协会商务部部长陈九庆，海澜飞马体育公园总监刘煜等，共同出席了该签约仪式。 仪式现场 一直以来，马术运动都是备受国人瞩目的高端体育项目之一。国际马术联合会主席、夏奥国际单项协会联合会主席、国际奥委会委员Ingmar De Vos表示， 海澜一直致力于马术运动的推广和顶尖马术运动员的培养，周建平独特的马术精神和马术情怀，为马术运动在中国的普及推广和世界马术的发展做出了杰出 贡献，同时也为中国马术运动走向世界做出巨大努力。此次选择与海澜 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the textile and apparel industry as "Overweight" for 2025, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [3][6]. Core Insights - Domestic consumption is steadily improving, with sports goods leading the growth. In Q1 2025, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reached 369.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Sports and entertainment goods saw a remarkable growth of 14.2% [3]. - Export performance shows a "grab export" effect due to tariff disturbances, with textile and apparel exports totaling 66.28 billion USD in Q1 2025, a 1% increase year-on-year [3]. - The acquisition of the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin by Anta for 290 million USD enhances its outdoor segment and strategic positioning in the European market [3]. - The report highlights the recovery in children's clothing driven by a rise in newborns and supportive national policies, predicting growth for leading children's brands [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales in Q1 2025 for clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 369.4 billion, up 2.5% year-on-year. Sports goods retail sales reached 30.7 billion, growing 14.2% [3]. Export Demand - Textile and apparel exports in Q1 2025 were 66.28 billion USD, with textile exports at 33.27 billion (up 4%) and apparel exports at 33.01 billion (down 1.9%) [3]. Company Performance - Anta's revenue grew by 13% in Q1 2025, with a strong performance from its brands. Li Ning is expected to see low single-digit growth, while 361 Degrees reported a revenue increase of 18% [4][6]. - The report anticipates a 3% revenue growth for children's clothing brands like Semir and Jiaman in 2024 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Anta Sports, 361 Degrees, and Li Ning in the sports sector, and companies like Luolai and Semir in the home textile and children's clothing sectors [3][6].

Industry Overview - The "Guochao" movement refers to products that integrate traditional Chinese culture with modern aesthetics and fashion elements, gaining popularity among consumers as their cultural confidence increases [1][5] - The Guochao industry is becoming a significant growth driver in China's economy, particularly in the new consumption sector, with a market size projected to grow from 12,266.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 22,922.3 billion yuan in 2024 [1][9] Industry Chain - The upstream of the Guochao industry includes cultural resources and raw material supply chain integration, focusing on intangible cultural heritage and traditional aesthetics [3] - The midstream consists of innovative operations of Guochao brands, with notable brands including Li Ning, Anta, and Huawei [3] - The downstream involves sales and consumption of Guochao products through various online platforms and retail stores [3] Current Industry Status - Recent government policies emphasize the importance of cultural confidence and the promotion of traditional Chinese culture, supporting the development of the Guochao economy [5][7] - Various measures have been introduced to foster new consumption brands and promote Guochao products, including fashion items that reflect Chinese aesthetics [5][7] Market Trends - Consumer interest in Guochao products is driven by their fashion appeal and unique cultural connotations, particularly among the Z generation and millennials [9] - The Guochao economy is expected to exceed 30,000 billion yuan by 2028, indicating a robust growth trajectory [9] Competitive Landscape - The Guochao market features a diverse range of participants, including traditional brands, new local brands, and tech giants, creating a "three-legged" competitive structure [11] - Leading brands like Li Ning and Anta are revitalizing their image to capture the sports fashion market, while new brands leverage cultural aesthetics to reshape the beauty market [11] Development Trends - The Guochao theme is gaining traction, with over 80% of consumers expressing confidence in the industry's future [18] - Local brands are encouraged to focus on product quality and innovation to transition from manufacturing to brand development [19] - As brands expand into overseas markets, localization strategies will be crucial for success [20]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, highlighting potential recovery opportunities due to evolving tariff policies and domestic demand [5][9]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a valuation recovery as the peak of risk aversion related to tariff policies has passed, with major brands maintaining order volumes and shipment schedules [5][9]. - The brand sector is poised for a valuation recovery driven by improved consumer sentiment and policy support, particularly in discretionary spending categories like apparel [5][9]. Industry Data Tracking - The Cotlook A index and China cotton price index decreased by 1.3% and 4.2% respectively, while wool prices fell by 4.3% [27]. - In March 2025, Vietnam's textile and apparel exports increased by 14.77% year-on-year, with footwear exports rising by 15.77% [31][33]. - Retail sales in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4% in the first two months of 2025, with notable increases in categories such as clothing and home appliances [24][25]. Company Dynamics - Anta Sports reported a double-digit revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in sales from its various brands [3]. - Huali Group's revenue for 2024 reached 24 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.35% year-on-year increase, driven by both returning and new customers [3]. - Taiping Bird's Q1 2025 revenue declined by 7% year-on-year, but the company is expected to benefit from strategic adjustments and improved gross margins [3]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.72% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [6][14]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with notable gains from companies like Wan Shili and Tai Mu Shi, while companies like Kai Run and Mu Gao Di faced significant declines [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the potential for recovery and growth in domestic demand in 2025 [5][12]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the market recently, with the SW textile and apparel index dropping by 5.7% from April 7 to April 11, lagging behind the SW All A index by 1.3 percentage points [6]. - Anta's acquisition of the German brand Jack Wolfskin is seen as a strategic move to enhance its outdoor segment, with the brand expected to complement Anta's existing portfolio [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery as a key investment theme for 2025, particularly in light of changing international trade dynamics [12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has shown weakness, with significant declines in both the apparel and textile manufacturing indices [6][9]. - Recent data indicates a 3.3% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing and textiles, totaling 262.4 billion yuan in January and February [30]. Company Developments - Anta's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with a notable increase in sales across its brands, including a 70% increase in other brands [11]. - The report highlights the strong financial performance of Huayi Group, which reported a 19.35% increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 24 billion yuan [11]. Industry Trends - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the textile supply chain, noting a significant imbalance in global tariff structures, particularly affecting Chinese exports [13][14]. - The cross-border e-commerce sector is adapting to tariff challenges, with companies focusing on diversifying supply chains and reducing costs [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in quality domestic brands that are poised for recovery, particularly in the sports and outdoor segments, as well as in home textiles and children's clothing [5][12]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Huayi Group, among others [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The brand sector shows steady recovery in Q1 under consumer promotion policies, with most companies achieving positive growth, outperforming expectations. The performance varies across sub-sectors, with mid-to-high-end menswear showing strong growth, sports retail maintaining steady growth, and mass brands also experiencing a rebound. Profitability varies due to differentiated cost control and operational leverage [2][4][16] - The manufacturing sector faces short-term pressure as downstream inventory has reached healthy levels, but demand from major export countries is weakening. In Q1, demand from the US and Japan shows marginal weakening. Most brands and retailers have returned to healthy inventory levels, but weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum, affecting order elasticity in the related supply chain [2][4][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Brand Sector - Q1 retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6 percentage points [20] - Mid-to-high-end menswear brands are leading in retail growth, while the sports sector continues to show steady growth. Mass apparel brands are also experiencing a recovery [20][27] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is under short-term pressure due to weak demand from major export markets and healthy inventory levels. The overall order placement is cautious, with expectations of further pressure from tariff forecasts [4][28] Key Company Performance - **Wanjian Medical**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 30%-40%, driven by non-woven products and strong brand power in sanitary napkins [5][40] - **Zhejiang Natural**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 25%-35%, with net profit expected to increase by 50%-100% [5][40] - **Weixing Co.**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% and double-digit net profit growth [5][40] - **Anta Sports**: Expected Q1 revenue growth in the high single digits, with FILA brand showing mid-to-low single-digit growth [6][20] - **361 Degrees**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% for adult apparel and around 15% for children's clothing, with e-commerce growth of about 20% [6][20] Inventory and Demand Trends - The inventory levels of most brands and retailers have returned to a healthy state, with the wholesale inventory destocking nearing completion. However, weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum [4][28]

Group 1 - The core index of the textile and apparel sector, the CSI All Share Textile and Apparel Index, opened at 2462.43 points and has shown a 0.94% increase over the past month, but a decline of 0.52% over the past three months and year-to-date [1][2] - The CSI All Share Textile and Apparel Index is composed of various industry classifications, including 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Textile and Apparel Index include Hailan Home (9.49%), Youngor (9.24%), Weigao Medical (5.04%), and others, indicating a concentration in a few key companies [2] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI All Share Textile and Apparel Index is divided between the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (57.61%) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (42.39%) [2] - The composition of the index by industry shows that clothing accounts for 57.58%, textiles for 23.70%, footwear and accessories for 11.71%, and home textiles for 7.01% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Hailan Home and JD Outlet Industry Overview - The outlet industry is experiencing growth due to unique advantages in the context of consumer downgrade. [3] - Traditional retail formats have been significantly impacted by public health events, while discount formats have maintained a relatively fast compound growth rate. [3] Key Points on JD Outlet Model - **Higher Profit Margins**: Traditional outlet players like Bailian have a gross margin of 75%, significantly higher than supermarkets (18%), department stores (23%), and shopping centers (below 50%). This indicates a growing demand for outlets amidst a backdrop of consumer downgrade and market segmentation. [3] - **Innovative Business Model**: JD Outlet operates as a retail operator, differing from traditional commercial real estate models. Hailan Home manages the entire operational process, allowing brands to enter the discount market without incurring rental and personnel costs. [3][4] - **Location Strategy**: JD Outlet locations are situated in city center malls, averaging 3,000 to 9,000 square meters, which enhances foot traffic and mall profitability, contrasting with traditional outlets located in suburban areas. [3][4] - **Mutual Benefits for Brands and Malls**: Brands can effectively address inventory issues and reduce operational costs, while malls attract more customers and optimize space utilization, leading to a win-win situation. [3][5] Hailan Home's Expansion Strategy - Hailan Home is actively opening new JD Outlet stores, showing confidence in the new business model and market potential. The company plans to continue this expansion to address supply-demand mismatches in lower-tier cities. [3][6] - The JD Outlet model is expected to achieve significant revenue, with projections of 27 billion to 35 billion yuan in sales and substantial net profits. [3][16] Future Market Potential - The domestic outlet market is anticipated to grow, with JD Outlet aiming to enter 200 brands by the end of 2025, targeting a market size of 100 billion yuan. [3][13] - The business model is expected to yield a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 30%, with potential market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan when combined with Hailan Home's existing apparel business. [3][19] Competitive Advantages of JD Outlet - JD Outlet's merchandise typically consists of overstock items that are at least 1.5 to 2 years old, allowing for a different pricing strategy compared to traditional brand stores that sell current season items. [7] - The average customer transaction value at JD Outlet is between 700 to 1,000 yuan, with a high purchase frequency. [8] - The operational model allows for rapid setup, with stores opening in less than a month, utilizing existing mall space without the need for separate facilities. [8] Brand Partnerships and Market Penetration - Brands are attracted to partner with JD Outlet due to the ability to manage high inventory levels without incurring additional costs, maintaining control over their products while achieving effective inventory turnover. [11] - Malls benefit from increased foot traffic and the ability to attract high-end brands that may have been difficult to recruit otherwise. [12] Conclusion - Hailan Home's strategy in the JD Outlet space positions it well for future growth, leveraging its operational expertise and market insights to capitalize on the expanding outlet market in China. The company's proactive expansion and innovative business model are expected to drive significant profitability and market share in the coming years. [6][19]

摘要 广发证券 新消费主义研究 20250318 Q&A 2025 年 1-2 月份服装家纺终端数据表现如何？整体消费趋势如何？ 2025 年 1-2 月份，限额以上企业服装鞋帽针纺织品零售额同比增长了 3.3%，而 全国实物商品网上零售额则累计下降了 0.6%。这一增长率好于 2024 年 11 月的 下降 4.5%和 12 月的下降 0.3%。相比之下，2024 年同期限额以上企业服装鞋帽 针纺织品零售额同比增长为 1.9%，并非低基数。因此，我们认为服装家纺消费 有所回暖。从结构上看，线下零售表现优于线上。此外，从上市样板公司的情 • 服装家纺消费回暖，线下零售优于线上，轩辕装及童装、专业运动休闲龙 头公司领跑。预计 2025 年受益于低基数，业绩有望逐季加速，多数公司估 值处于历史低位，上游纺织制造板块增速预期不如去年。 • 超高分子量聚乙烯（UHMWPE）需求预计以每年约 20%速度增长，应用场景 持续拓展，国内行业起步晚但发展空间广阔。建议关注涉及 UHMWPE 材料的 公司，如南山智尚、恒辉安防等。 • 呼和浩特市育儿补贴政策对童装市场形成利好，全国已有约 33 个省市县出 台类似政策。2021 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating [4][7]. Core Views - The focus on opening new stores is prioritized over immediate profitability, indicating a strategic emphasis on market positioning rather than short-term financial returns [3]. - The entry into cities like Hefei and Zhengzhou is expected to enhance customer traffic and business opportunities, reflecting confidence in the company's retail model [3]. - The recruitment of store supervisors suggests a potential increase in operational involvement from the company, which may strengthen its management capabilities [3]. Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 0.46 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.62 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19x, 16x, and 14x [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 21,635.19 million yuan, 23,041.47 million yuan, and 25,023.04 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 0.50%, 6.50%, and 8.60% respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2,209.85 million yuan in 2024, 2,663.01 million yuan in 2025, and 2,961.71 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -25.14%, 20.51%, and 11.22% respectively [6]. Market Positioning - The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for outlet and discount retail formats, particularly in mid-tier cities [3]. - The operational capabilities are expected to improve as more stores mature, enhancing the company's ability to replicate successful models across new locations [3].