今日（1月29日），白酒等消费股迎来大反弹。截至收盘，贵州茅台大涨8.6%，成交额超260亿元。金种子酒、皇台酒业、迎驾贡酒、金徽酒等近20 股涨停。白酒板块全天成交金额超600亿。 消息面上，本周以来，多款飞天茅台价格涨幅明显，与1月26日相比，2026年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2026年飞天茅台散瓶上 涨了20元；2025年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2025年飞天茅台散瓶上涨了20元。 华安证券在近日的研报中也指出，以食品饮料为代表的消费行业已经历持续5年之久的罕见下跌，背后是市场共识的彻底扭转，叙事逻辑由持续上涨 期的"核心资产"转为调整期的"传统资产，导致当前多数消费细分板块及头部企业已处在历史估值5%/10%以下分位水平。当前在风格的极致分化之 下，预计2026年后续消费头部企业的下跌空间将会有限、向上弹性将会更大。 从底层逻辑上看，随着更多关注内需和消费的政策出台，机构认为，2026年初，扩内需政策进入密集落地期，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发《关 于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，商务部部署提振消费专项行动，从实物消费到服务 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks continued to lead, closing up 0.51% with a trading volume of 332 billion [1] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the federal funds rate target range remains at 3.5% to 3.75%, with a voting result of 10 to 2 against a rate cut [1] - Oil prices are rising due to ongoing tensions in Iran, with WTI crude touching $65 per barrel, up 2.83%, marking a new high since September 2025 [1] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a historical high, with London gold nearing $5,600, leading to a rise in domestic gold jewelry prices to around 1,700 yuan per gram [2] - Despite the price increase, gold retail stocks did not see a corresponding rise, with concerns about potential profit-taking if prices decline [2] Commodities and Metals - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange approached $14,000 per ton, a historical high, benefiting companies like Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 6% [3] - Nickel resources are rebounding, with Zhongwei New Materials securing significant nickel ore supply and establishing a nickel raw material industrial base in Indonesia [3] Real Estate Sector - The Chinese government is encouraging local policies to digest existing real estate stock, leading to a surge in real estate stocks, with companies like Agile Group rising nearly 41% [4] - Real estate brokerage firms also saw gains, with Beike rising over 7% [4] Consumer Goods - The liquor market is experiencing price increases, with Moutai's original box price rising to 1,610 yuan per bottle [4] - There are rumors of Kweichow Moutai participating in SpaceX's Series A financing, which the company denied, yet it contributed to a surge in liquor stocks [5] Financial Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a 5.7% increase in total revenue to 2.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 239 million yuan, up 14.5% [6] - Nine Dragons Paper expects a profit of 2.15 billion to 2.25 billion yuan for the six months ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from 680 million yuan the previous year [6] Automotive Sector - The State Council released a plan to accelerate the development of service consumption in the automotive sector, which is expected to benefit automotive dealers like Meidong Automotive and Zhongsheng Holdings [7] Individual Stock Highlights - Sunny Optical Technology expects a net profit of approximately 4.589 billion to 4.723 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70% to 75% [8] - The growth is attributed to high-end smartphone camera specifications and improved product mix, despite a recent decline in stock price due to fluctuations in smartphone demand [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in China's consumer landscape, contrasting the performance of traditional consumer brands like Kweichow Moutai with new consumer brands like Pop Mart, indicating a transition towards "new" consumption driven by changing demographics, real estate cycles, and evolving consumer values [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai announced a stock buyback plan of 1.5 to 3 billion yuan but saw its stock price decline after the initial buyback, reflecting a defensive market perception [1][3]. - In contrast, Pop Mart's stock buyback of 350 million HKD led to a market capitalization increase of nearly 60 billion HKD within a week, showcasing a strong growth narrative [1][3]. - On January 29, Kweichow Moutai's stock experienced a rare surge, recovering to over 1400 yuan, which also positively impacted other liquor stocks and the real estate sector [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article discusses the divergence in investment logic between traditional and new consumer brands, with the former viewed as defensive and the latter as growth-oriented [3][4]. - Traditional consumer stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and the real estate cycle, which has been under pressure, leading to a challenging environment for recovery [3][4]. - New consumer brands like Pop Mart, Anta, and Li Ning are not solely reliant on macroeconomic support but are leveraging innovation to create structural growth opportunities [4][5]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The core driver for new consumption has shifted from "demographic dividends" to "emotional dividends," focusing on consumer identity and self-expression rather than basic material needs [4][5]. - The Hong Kong consumer index, which includes new consumption sectors, saw a cumulative increase of about 20% in 2025, while the Shanghai consumer index, dominated by traditional sectors, fell nearly 8% [4]. Group 4: International Expansion - Traditional consumer companies lacking international expansion capabilities face stagnation, while new consumer brands are showing strong growth overseas, with Pop Mart reporting a 3.7 times increase in overseas revenue by Q3 2025 [5]. - Successful international strategies are evident in brands like Anta and Li Ning, which are expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia, indicating a shift from "Made in China" to "Global Brands" [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Considerations - Traditional consumer leaders like Kweichow Moutai still hold strong market positions and stable cash flows, with their valuations entering historically low ranges, appealing to risk-averse investors [6]. - New consumer brands face unique challenges, such as sustaining IP creation and managing acquisitions, with high valuations making them sensitive to any signs of growth slowdown [6][7]. - The sustainability of "self-indulgent" consumption is questioned, as it relies on consumer sentiment and disposable income, which may be the first to be scrutinized in uncertain economic times [8].

最近飞天茅台涨价，生肖茅台暴涨，茅台股票涨价，带动整个白酒板块涨价，一下子成为了酒友圈的热 门话题。这貌似打了一些前段时间看衰白酒人的脸，一些人在群里聊：白酒又活过来了。 因此老酒友都在群里说：现在买酒，急用考虑，不急用或家里有存货，建议用存货。春节过完之后，有 些没卖动的酒自然会跌。 所以这个时候，风声和舆论就很重要，于是最近出现了这样的风声和舆论。很多理智酒友，面对这种情 况不会吵也不会闹，最近马年茅涨价快，有酒友买到马年茅，已经开始准备出了，毕竟当前最难赚的是 钱，一些东西能交易出去变现成钱才是王道。其实厉害的酒友，是利用这种现象，给自己赚钱。 前几天我在武汉走访了一些现场渠道，当前名酒动销不好，主要是需求变少，很多商务活动、聚会都取 消了，用酒需求大大减少，相比往年，今年名酒动销更差，目前渠道商都背负了很大压力。 在这样的大环境下，茅台酒涨价，反而成为一针强心剂，让本来看不到希望的白酒板块，似乎又找到了 机会。于是各路酒水股票涨价，不少白酒商品涨价，这都影响到了一些卖酒群，群里面的群主都说了， 这几天不明盘报价了，名酒一天一个价，昨天报的价，今天作废。 面对这一波风，老酒友都很淡定，因为白酒全年70% ...

1月29日，白酒股强势反弹，鹏华酒ETF涨停，贵州茅台股价重返1400元。有网友在雪球问是不是段永平买上去的，段永平表示："今天真没买。"不过，1 月29日更早些时候，段永平透露，这两天用中国神华换了些贵州茅台。 除了白酒股大涨以外，大消费板块整体表现较为抢眼，多只食品饮料ETF涨幅也超过7%。站在当前时点看，消费板块后续机会如何？ 段永平：今天真没买 在长时间股价低迷后，1月29日，贵州茅台股价罕见大涨8.61%。 | | | | | 600519 贵州茅台 | | | 1437.72 | +114.03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IHO 合田图形 | 区间统计 前复权 ~ 隐藏停牌 到价提醒 筹码 : (~) | K 7 | 已收市 CNY | | | | 融 通 | +8.61% ਵ 自选 + ▼ | | 60:1405.316 ↑ MA250:1436.542 ↑ | 设置均线。 | | 委比 | 78.26% 委差 | 244 | 行情分析 | | 深度分析 | | 2025/8/5-2026/1/29(1 ...

A股复盘 | 查查这句话谁说的 / 2026.01.29 狂跌五年无人问，一朝大涨天下知。 还是股王最有话题度，哈哈哈，茅台大涨8%，段子图嗖嗖就来了！ 想必大家都看到了那个"参与SpaceX上市A轮融资"的段子图。 关键是还真有媒体去求证了，哈哈哈！上证报记者对此进行了求证，贵州茅台方面回应记者称，此为"不实信息"。 近两日，飞天茅台价格出现了一轮持续上涨， 第三方报价平台显示，1月29日，2026年原箱茅台价格单瓶价格上涨20元为1610元/瓶，回 升到1600元以上，散瓶的价格保持在1570元/瓶，前几日茅台的批价还稳定在1550元/瓶左右。 据业内人士透露，目前茅台市场需求并未出现激增的情况， 但临近年末部分烟酒店提前备货和茅台采取的控量策略，或是推动价格上涨的主 要原因。 飞天茅台批发价在经历了23个月的下滑后，自12月中旬起已趋于稳定。随着公司在12月底/1月初宣布全面的营销渠道改革，其价格自那时 起已呈上升趋势。回顾上次类似情形，即2014年初，当时正是茅台股价的底部。 伯恩斯坦认为飞天茅台价格在未来数月有上涨空间，这将成为该股的积极催化剂。目前飞天茅台的渠道利润率约为25%，若飞天茅台批发价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector has experienced a significant rebound, with major stocks seeing substantial gains, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment and market confidence [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the white liquor and consumer stocks surged, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 8.6% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 26 billion yuan [1]. - Nearly 20 stocks, including Jinzhidao Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor, reached their daily price limits [1]. - The total trading volume for the white liquor sector surpassed 60 billion yuan throughout the day [1].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing significant stock price increases, with several companies reaching their daily limit up. Group 1: Stock Performance - Shui Jing Fang, Shede Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Jiu Gui Liquor, and Jin Hui Liquor all hit the daily limit up [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is approaching the daily limit up [1] - Jinzhongzi Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai all saw stock increases exceeding 7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - iMoutai has issued a statement condemning the sale of software that claims to enhance the purchasing success rate on its platform, emphasizing the need to maintain fair market order and protect consumer rights [1][3]. Group 1: Company Actions - iMoutai has identified merchants selling "purchase assist" software, which disrupts market order and may violate multiple laws, including the Civil Code and Cybersecurity Law of China [3]. - The company has collected evidence of these violations and reserves the right to take legal action against the responsible parties to uphold market order and consumer rights [3]. - iMoutai has established a multi-layered risk prevention system and has intercepted 426 million abnormal activities since January 1, 2026, ensuring no bulk irregular transactions occur on its platform [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The sale of software, such as "Storm Sniffer," which claims to allow users to purchase products before they officially go on sale, has created a gray market [4][12]. - Prices for these software packages range from 5.99 to 30 yuan, with some listings showing over 50 sales and positive reviews from users [5][8]. - The launch of the 2026 vintage Moutai at an official price of 1499 yuan has led to increased demand, with the market price for the product rising to approximately 1600 yuan per bottle as of January 29 [13].

（来源：大象新闻） 1月29日，i茅台平台发布声明： 近日，我们注意到有商家通过网络平台公开售卖所谓i茅台APP"抢购外挂"等软件，有网友晒出非i茅台官方通知的批量成交记 录。以上售卖、使用该类软件的行为，对公平的市场秩序造成了不良社会影响，涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国民法典》《中华人 民共和国网络安全法》《中华人民共和国消费者权益保护法》。消费者使用该类软件存在信息与财产安全风险，请广大消费者 注意提升防范意识，切勿轻信以免造成损失。我们已在收集和固化相关证据，并保留采取法律手段追究相关主体责任的权利， 以维护市场秩序和消费者合法权益。 自2022年3月31日上线以来，i茅台已稳定运行近四年，构建形成了多层级、多策略、成熟的风险防控体系，包括机器行为识 别、风险设备判断、异常行为拦截、团伙风险防控等。2026年1月1日至今，已成功拦截各类异常行为4.26亿次，平台商品交易 过程不存在单一用户批量非常规消费行为成交，不存在多用户集中批量非常规消费行为成交。我们将持之以恒提升技术水平， 不断增强平台的风险防控能力，努力为广大消费者营造公平、有序的消费环境。 感谢大家的关心与支持。 "小茅i茅台"公众号主编 | 彭丹 ...