Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the beverage sector, driven by the upcoming peak season and supportive macroeconomic policies from the central government [2][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the liquor sector, particularly in light of the recent political bureau meeting that indicated a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - For the week of April 21 to April 25, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38%. Notable performances included snacks (+4.50%) and soft drinks (+2.21%), while categories like beer (-0.72%) and health products (-1.28%) saw declines [1][19] Weekly Perspective Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector saw a decline of 1.75%, attributed to the off-peak consumption period and inventory adjustments. However, the upcoming May Day holiday is expected to boost demand for banquet scenarios, aiding in inventory reduction [2][12] - **Beer and Beverage Sector**: The beer sector decreased by 0.72%, but companies like Zhujiang Brewery saw a 5.7% increase in stock price due to better-than-expected Q1 performance. The report anticipates improved demand as the weather warms and consumption policies are implemented [3][13] - **Consumer Goods Sector**: The report identifies opportunities in the snack sector, with a focus on companies that have shown resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming sales season for soft drinks is also highlighted as a catalyst for growth [3][14] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as cyclical stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui Liquor [4][18] - **Consumer Goods**: The report recommends focusing on snacks and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Ganyuan Foods and Yuyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from low base effects in Q2 [4][18] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the snack and soft drink sectors are currently outperforming others, while the liquor sector is under pressure [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating challenges in the market and operational adjustments needed to improve performance [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 69.4%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.9 percentage points but an improvement compared to the second half of 2024 [2]. - Sales revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2]. Market and Channel Analysis - Revenue from the domestic market was 494 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 949 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company has seen a reduction in the number of distributors, with 2,621 distributors at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 42 from the end of 2024, indicating a more stable core customer base [2]. - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 36.7% year-on-year to 205 million yuan, reflecting a positive trend in online sales [2]. Cost and Investment Strategy - The company maintained a proactive investment in expenses during the peak season, with a sales expense ratio increase of 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 224 million yuan, a significant increase of 106.8% year-on-year, indicating improved cash management [3]. Incentive Plans - The company announced a stock incentive plan on March 27, 2025, proposing to grant up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. - The performance targets include a revenue growth rate of no less than 20%, 36%, and 55% for the respective years, or net profit growth rates of no less than 164%, 231%, and 309% [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company expects a gradual improvement in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion yuan, 5.38 billion yuan, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 420 million yuan, 450 million yuan, and 510 million yuan for the same period, reflecting a positive growth outlook [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with total revenue at 1.58 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Q1 total revenue was 1.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.1% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year - Sales collection amounted to 1.62 billion yuan, down 15.3% year-on-year - Operating cash flow net amount was 220 million yuan, an increase of 106.8% year-on-year - Contract liabilities at the end of Q1 were 210 million yuan, an increase of 40 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][3] Product and Market Analysis - The company experienced a decline in revenue across product categories, with mid-to-high-end and regular liquor revenues down 28.5% and 12.6% respectively [2] - The performance of the "Shede" and "T68" brands remained strong, benefiting from the township banquet market [2] - Revenue from Sichuan province was 490 million yuan, down 9.0%, while revenue from other provinces was 950 million yuan, down 33.3% [2] - The number of distributors decreased by 42 to 2,621, indicating a structural optimization in the distribution channel [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - Gross margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points to 69.4%, primarily due to a shift in product mix [3] - The net profit margin fell by 4.2 percentage points to 22.0%, which is still better than the previous year's overall level [3] - The company provided support to distributors to enhance sales, resulting in a significant increase in operating cash flow [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to restore growth in 2025, with expectations of a gradual improvement in performance starting from Q2 as the base effect diminishes [3][4] - Strategic initiatives include maintaining price stability and strengthening market foundations, with plans to increase product launches in underrepresented areas [3][4] - The company anticipates a more favorable profit outlook due to potential optimization in sales and management expenses [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to continued pressure on mid-to-high-end demand, but there are expectations for profit improvement in the coming years [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 37.10% [1]. - The total revenue including contract liabilities was 1.617 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.62%, while cash sales amounted to 1.623 billion yuan, down 15.34%, indicating better cash collection performance compared to revenue [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 69.36%, a decrease of 4.79 percentage points year-on-year, likely influenced by a shift in product mix [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.46%, while low-end liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.59%, with the decline rate slowing compared to previous periods [2]. - Revenue from domestic sales was 494 million yuan, down 8.96%, while revenue from outside the province was 949 million yuan, down 33.25% [2]. - The number of distributors decreased to 2,621, a reduction of 42 compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company has announced a stock incentive plan aimed at motivating employees, with targets for revenue growth of no less than 20%, 36%, and 55% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and net profit growth targets of no less than 164%, 231%, and 309% [4]. - Based on Q1 2025 performance, the company expects revenues of 5.789 billion yuan, 6.332 billion yuan, and 6.799 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 921 million yuan, 1.165 billion yuan, and 1.417 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [5].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the liquor company Jiu Gui Jiu has been declining, with significant drops in revenue and net profit reported for both the first quarter of 2024 and the previous year [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Jiu Gui Jiu achieved revenue of 344.04 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.34% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 31.45 million yuan, a decrease of 54.76% [3][4]. - For the full year 2023, the company reported total revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, a decline of 49.7%, and a net profit of 12.49 million yuan, down 97.72% [4][5][6]. Product and Segment Performance - All product lines except the Xiangquan series saw revenue declines last year, with the Neican series down 67.06% and the Jiu Gui series down 49.32% [5][6]. - The Xiangquan series, however, experienced a revenue increase of 7.64% [5][6]. Market Trends and Challenges - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a transition period, with high channel inventory and pressure on market prices for various brands [13]. - Increased competition is leading to a concentration of market share among leading companies, exacerbating the "Matthew Effect" in the industry [13]. Shareholder Information - As of March 31, 2024, the total number of shareholders for Jiu Gui Jiu was 142,300, a decrease of 5.26% from the end of the previous year [11]. - Despite the continuous decline in performance, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 195 million yuan, which exceeds 100% of the net profit for 2024 [11]. Stock Performance - Jiu Gui Jiu's stock price has been on a downward trend since September 2021, dropping over 78.83% from its peak of 273.29 yuan per share [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue at 1.58 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [4] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expected to focus on its core products and improve in the long term, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 600 million, 680 million, and 760 million yuan respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 7,081 million yuan - 2024A: 5,357 million yuan (down 24.3% YoY) - 2025E: 5,802 million yuan (up 8.3% YoY) - 2026E: 6,428 million yuan (up 10.8% YoY) - 2027E: 7,090 million yuan (up 10.3% YoY) [7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 1,771 million yuan - 2024A: 346 million yuan (down 80.5% YoY) - 2025E: 600 million yuan (up 73.6% YoY) - 2026E: 678 million yuan (up 13.0% YoY) - 2027E: 757 million yuan (up 11.6% YoY) [7] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 74.5% in 2023A, expected to decline to 63.2% in 2025E - Net Margin: 25.0% in 2023A, expected to rise to 10.3% in 2025E [7][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E Ratio: 10.7 in 2023A, expected to rise to 31.6 in 2025E - P/B Ratio: 2.6 in 2023A, expected to remain around 2.6 in 2025E [7][8] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s high-end liquor revenue in Q1 2025 was 1.23 billion yuan, down 28% YoY, while low-end liquor revenue was 210 million yuan, down 13% YoY [8] - E-commerce channels showed growth, with revenue of 200 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 37% YoY [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is 19 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 333 million shares [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gaining attention due to increased external uncertainties and positive domestic policy signals, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12][16] - The liquor sector is expected to show a "front low, back high" performance trend for the year, with a focus on inventory digestion in the first half and gradual demand recovery in the second half [17][32] - The consumer goods sector, particularly those related to the catering supply chain and benefiting from fertility policy catalysts, is highlighted for potential investment opportunities [39] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Expectations and Industry Focus - Increased external uncertainties have led to a heightened focus on domestic demand as a crucial element for economic growth [12] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively influenced market confidence, with a comprehensive action plan to enhance consumer spending [13][16] 2. Liquor Sector - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 10%, with a focus on inventory management during the off-peak season [17] - High-end liquor demand remains stable, while mid-range and regional brands are experiencing varied performance based on market conditions [19] - Major liquor companies are engaging in share buybacks and increasing shareholdings to bolster market confidence [24][30] 3. Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to the catering supply chain, with specific attention to the seasoning, beer, dairy, and snack segments [39] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in restaurant consumption, while the beer sector is poised for growth due to the resurgence of dining scenarios [40] - Dairy demand is anticipated to rise following the introduction of fertility subsidies in various regions, which could positively impact dairy company performance [39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is maintaining active expense investments during the peak season to promote sales, with a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3] - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4] - Revenue and profit are expected to gradually improve as the company enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2] - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 106.8% year-on-year to 224 million yuan [3] Market and Channel Analysis - The company has optimized its channel structure, with a total of 2,621 distributors as of the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 42 from the end of 2024 [2] - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 36.7% year-on-year to 205 million yuan, reflecting a trend towards online sales in the liquor market [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The stock incentive plan aims to motivate employees with performance targets that require significant revenue and profit growth over the next three years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][19]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is maintaining active expenditure during the peak season to promote sales, with a sales expense ratio increasing by 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. - The company expects a turning point in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, and net profits of 422 million yuan, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market and Channel Analysis - The company’s provincial revenue was 494 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, while out-of-province revenue was 949 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [2]. - The e-commerce channel saw revenue of 205 million yuan, an increase of 36.7% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in online sales [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, 5.375 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.756 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 422 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 508 million yuan [5][6]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 45.0 for 2025 and 42.1 for 2026, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's Q1 2025 report shows significant revenue and profit growth, indicating a successful strategy amidst industry adjustments [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.576 billion, a 75.68% increase quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 346 million, surpassing the total net profit of 345.8 million for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Gross margin improved to 69.36%, and net cash flow from operating activities increased by 106.76% to 224.2 million [2] - Operating costs and management expenses decreased by 11.25% and 25.24% respectively, enhancing profit margins [2] Market Strategy - The company implemented a "stable price, control inventory, strong sales" strategy, leading to a 41 million increase in contract liabilities, reflecting restored channel confidence [2] - E-commerce sales grew to 205 million, a 36.71% year-on-year increase, indicating successful channel optimization [2] Product Development - Focus on core products led to Q1 revenue of 1.234 billion from mid-to-high-end liquor and 208 million from ordinary liquor, accounting for 85.58% and 14.42% of total revenue respectively [3] - The company aims to strengthen its position in the 400 yuan price range and expand into rural markets [3] Long-term Growth and Innovation - R&D expenses surged from 8.39 million to 95.33 million from 2019 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 62.59% [5] - The company holds 45 invention patents and has developed over 144 new products, enhancing its technological capabilities [5] - Brand value for "Shede" reached 100.655 billion and "Tuopai" 72.196 billion, totaling 172.851 billion, a 51.48% increase since 2020 [6] Industry Outlook - The industry is viewed as undergoing a short-term adjustment, with companies demonstrating resilience and strategic focus expected to thrive [2][4]