Market Performance - The market rebounded last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Index rising by 0.94% to 1666.03 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.52%, the ChiNext Index by 1.38%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.12% [1] Strong Stock Performances - Notable strong performers in the brand index included BGI Genomics, which rose by 17.27%, and Yiling Pharmaceutical, which increased by 9.81% [1] - Other significant gainers included Stone Technology and Marubi Biological, which rose by 7.18% and 6.79%, respectively [1] Year-to-Date Stock Gains - Since the beginning of 2025, Marubi Biological has surged by 60.82%, leading the gains, followed by Shanghai Jahwa with a 46.72% increase and BGI Genomics with a 34.45% rise [2] - Other stocks with notable increases include Anji Technology, Xintai, and Weir Shares, each rising over 20% [2] Market Outlook - Institutions expect the market to refocus on domestic economic fundamentals, with a positive policy response anticipated [2][3] - The current market is viewed as being in a high cost-performance range, with significant policy support expected to stabilize the economy and market [2] Economic Data Focus - Attention is drawn to upcoming economic data, particularly export performance and the sustainability of the export supply chain recovery [3] - The prevailing market conditions are supported by policy measures and liquidity easing, which are expected to bolster the stability of the domestic economy and capital markets [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Baijiu and Snack Food Sectors Baijiu Industry Insights - Moutai prices have slightly rebounded, with expected batch prices fluctuating between 2,100 and 2,200 RMB, and an increase in non-standard products leading to a slight rise in total inventory [1][3] - Wuliangye's batch prices are above 920-925 RMB, but transaction volumes remain low, indicating low channel inventory [5][9] - Fenjiu is optimistic about growth, focusing on mid-tier products, with expectations for significant single-digit growth in marketing and profits for 2025 [1][10][13] - The overall baijiu industry is showing signs of cyclical adjustment, with a decrease in the number of large-scale enterprises and a slight increase in sales but a decline in profits [1][14] - Strict regulations on government consumption have led to a significant decline in business demand, with expectations of nearly double-digit declines [2][7] Snack Food Sector Insights - The snack food industry is still in an expansion phase, with stable single-store profit models and strong franchisee investment returns, averaging about two years [1][18][19] - The number of stores for brands like Mixue Ice City is increasing, with nearly 2,000 new stores opened in the first five months of 2025 [1][16][19] - The zero-sugar snack segment is experiencing rapid growth, with brands like Salted Fish expanding their product lines and improving profit margins through e-commerce channels [1][23] - The overall snack food market is projected to grow, with significant opportunities for companies with strong brands or continuous product innovation [1][31] Key Market Trends and Challenges - The baijiu market is facing challenges due to a decline in government consumption and overall economic conditions, leading to a cautious outlook from distributors [2][8] - Snack food brands are leveraging e-commerce and social media to enhance brand visibility and sales, indicating a shift towards online retail [20][22] - The competitive landscape is tightening, with top brands maintaining strong market positions while mid-tier brands struggle to sustain profitability [21][22] Recommendations for Investors - Focus on high-end baijiu brands and those with strong channel advantages, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, as they show better performance and execution capabilities [1][15] - Monitor the performance of snack food brands in the context of ongoing market expansion and franchisee confidence, as these factors could present investment opportunities [1][32] - Consider the impact of regulatory changes and economic conditions on traditional industries, particularly in the baijiu sector, when making investment decisions [1][7][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the value of liquor allocation is stronger, and consumer goods are embracing new consumption trends. The food and beverage index increased by 0.5% from May 12 to May 16, ranking 15th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.6 percentage points. Sub-industries such as health products (+8.5%), baked goods (+2.4%), and dairy products (+1.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12] - The report indicates that liquor companies are experiencing slow revenue growth, which is already anticipated by the market. This is due to demand remaining at a low level and companies reducing channel burdens. The report suggests that liquor is currently at a bottom range, with signs of marginal recovery in business demand and a pragmatic approach from liquor companies to reduce supply growth to alleviate channel pressure. Future performance growth is expected to rise gradually [3][10][11] - New consumption trends are emerging due to changes in business models and consumer perceptions, focusing on consumer demand and reconstructing consumption scenarios and experiences. This is reflected in new channels within the food and beverage industry, where traditional retail channels face challenges such as traffic loss and declining profit margins [11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.5%, ranking 15th out of 28, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.6 percentage points. Leading sub-industries included health products (+8.5%), baked goods (+2.4%), and dairy products (+1.5%) [10][12] - Individual stocks such as Xianle Health, Youyou Foods, and Xiwang Foods showed significant gains, while Bai Run Foods, Ganyuan Foods, and ST Jia Jia experienced declines [12][18] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder increased by 30.6% year-on-year, while the price of fresh milk decreased by 10.0% year-on-year [18][21] - The price of pork increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while the price of live pigs decreased by 3.8% year-on-year [24][25] Liquor Industry News - Moutai's sales through major e-commerce channels grew by over 30% in the first four months of the year. The company is also implementing new policies to boost sales for events and weddings [44] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Foods. Shanxi Fenjiu faces short-term demand pressure but has high mid-term growth certainty. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. Ximai Foods is expected to improve profitability due to better raw material costs [4][51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the value of liquor allocation is stronger, and consumer goods are embracing new consumption trends. The food and beverage index increased by 0.5% from May 12 to May 16, ranking 15th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.6 percentage points. Sub-industries such as health products (+8.5%), baked goods (+2.4%), and dairy products (+1.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12] - The report indicates that liquor companies are experiencing low revenue growth, which is already anticipated by the market. This is due to demand remaining at a low level and companies reducing channel burdens. The report suggests that liquor is currently at a bottom range, with signs of marginal recovery in business demand and a pragmatic approach from liquor companies to reduce supply growth to alleviate channel pressure. Future performance growth is expected to rise gradually [10][11] - New consumption trends are emerging, driven by changes in business models and consumer perceptions. This is reflected in the food and beverage industry through new channels. Traditional offline retail channels are facing challenges, leading to opportunities for upstream brand suppliers. Retailers are adopting differentiated product selections and focusing on quality, which benefits suppliers with strong brand and product capabilities [11][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.5%, ranking 15th out of 28, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.6 percentage points. Health products, baked goods, and dairy products showed leading performance [10][12] - Individual stocks such as Xianle Health, Youyou Foods, and Xiwang Foods saw significant gains, while Bai Run Foods, Ganyuan Foods, and ST Jia Jia experienced declines [12][18] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder increased by 30.6% year-on-year, while the price of fresh milk decreased by 10.0% year-on-year [18][21] - The price of pork increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while the price of live pigs decreased by 3.8% year-on-year [24][25] Liquor Industry News - Moutai's sales through major e-commerce channels grew by over 30% in the first four months of the year. The company is also implementing new policies to boost sales during banquets [44] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Foods. Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to have high growth certainty in the medium term, while Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. Ximai Foods is anticipated to improve profitability due to better raw material costs [4][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage sector [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, particularly in the liquor segment, while the snack sector shows high levels of prosperity [1] - The overall revenue and net profit growth rates for the food and beverage industry have slowed down in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, with a notable performance differentiation among sub-sectors [4][14] - The report highlights that the liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, while the snack industry continues to thrive [4][22] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Overview - In 2024, the food and beverage industry achieved a total revenue of CNY 10,877.93 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.91%, and a net profit of CNY 2,171.12 billion, growing by 5.51% [14] - For Q1 2025, the industry reported revenues of CNY 3,264.12 billion, a 2.52% increase year-on-year, and net profits of CNY 815.45 billion, growing by 0.27% [14] 2. Sub-sector Performance - **Liquor**: The liquor sector saw a revenue increase of 1.60% in Q1 2025, with net profits growing by 2.26%. High-end liquor brands like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showed strong resilience [15][22] - **Snacks**: The snack sector reported a remarkable revenue growth of 30.96% in Q1 2025, driven by the expansion of popular product categories and new sales channels [15][30] - **Soft Drinks**: The soft drink sector maintained a high level of prosperity, with leading companies showing significant revenue growth [4][30] - **Dairy Products**: The dairy sector showed signs of improvement in Q1 2025, with a notable reduction in profit decline compared to 2024 [4][30] - **Condiments**: The condiment sector is experiencing a recovery, with improved performance attributed to cost reductions in raw materials [4][30] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key companies within each sub-sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Youyou Foods in the liquor and snack sectors, respectively [4][5][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting consumption, indicating potential for recovery [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu's stock closed down 2.15% on May 16, indicating a decline in investor confidence and performance in the market [1] Company Overview - Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu Distillery Co., Ltd. was established in 1985 and is located in Lüliang City, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of liquor, beverages, and refined tea [1] - The company has a registered capital of 12,201.14372 million RMB, with Yuan Qingmao as the legal representative [1] Investment Performance - The investment performance of the fund under the management of China Merchants Fund, specifically the China Merchants CSI Liquor Index (LOF) A, shows a year-to-date return of -2.18%, ranking 2,464 out of 3,435 in its category [1][2] - The fund has experienced a weekly decline of -0.34%, a monthly decline of -3.07%, and a quarterly increase of 0.79% [2] Fund Management - The fund manager for the China Merchants CSI Liquor Index (LOF) A is Hou Hao, who has a Master's degree in Economics and holds CFA and FRM certifications [3][4] - Hou Hao has been with China Merchants Fund since 2009 and has held various positions, including senior risk manager and quantitative investment manager [3][4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.40%, while the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index reported at 25115.40 points [1] - The CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index has increased by 2.16% in the past month, 7.78% in the past three months, and 2.99% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [2] Group 2 - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index are: Kweichow Moutai (51.86%), Wuliangye (13.12%), Yili (9.68%), Shanxi Fenjiu (5.17%), Luzhou Laojiao (4.78%), Haitian Flavoring (3.64%), Dongpeng Beverage (2.92%), Yanghe (2.1%), Jinshiyuan (1.82%), and Gujing Gongjiu (1.36%) [2] - The market share of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index is 76.40% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 23.60% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] Group 3 - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index includes: Baijiu (80.20%), Dairy Products (9.68%), Condiments and Edible Oils (4.59%), Soft Drinks (2.92%), Beer (1.31%), and Meat Products (1.30%) [3] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples [3]

-0.03(-0.56%) -0.09(-1.18%) -0.04(-1.00%) 保险 中国太保 7.0 中国人保 中国平安 ■ 3630.79亿市值 3216.08亿市值 9722.44亿市值 12.09亿成交额 24.99亿成交额 11.96亿成交额 53.39 8.21 33.43 -0.61(-1.79%) -0.86(-1.59%) -0.07(-0.85%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 20276.67亿市值 2500.93亿市值 5088.01亿市值 22.89亿成交额 37.15亿成交额 6.49亿成交额 131.08 205.00 1614.13 -17.88(-1.10%) -4.50(-2.15%) -2.59(-1.94%) 半导体 XD海光信 北方华创 寒武纪-U HYGON 3218.98亿市值 2289.48亿市值 2788.61亿市值 10.79亿成交额 24.03亿成交额 18.85亿成交额 428.60 668.00 138.49 -0.30(-0.07%) -9.00(-1.33%) -3.45(-2.43%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 比亚进 长城汽车 京沪高铁 ...

保险 中国太保 队 中国人保 中国平安 ■《》 3608.68亿市值 3198.76亿市值 9747.94亿市值 7.70亿成交额 15.63亿成交额 8.21亿成交额 53.53 33.25 8.16 -0.79(-2.32%) -0.72(-1.33%) -0.12(-1.45%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 20338.97亿市值 2513.98亿市值 5121.78亿市值 19.61亿成交额 11.13亿成交额 3.58亿成交额 1619.09 131.95 206.07 -12.92(-0.79%) -3.43(-1.64%) -1.72(-1.29%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U XD海光信 HYGON 2297.76亿市值 2790.28亿市值 3201.78亿市值 14.68亿成交额 12.73亿成交额 6.45亿成交额 430.15 668.40 137.75 +1.25(+0.29%) -8.60(-1.27%) -4.19(-2.95%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 比亚迪 长城汽车 京沪高铁 11783.98亿市值 2020.91亿市值 2916.93亿市值 2.23亿成交额 52 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that public fund assessments are being optimized, and the food and beverage sector, which is currently underweighted, is expected to receive increased allocation. Key stocks in beverages, beer, and leading liquor companies are anticipated to see greater investment due to their performance and weight in the market [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of growth stocks as valuation spaces open up, particularly in the snack category [4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - For liquor: The report suggests overweighting stable leading companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, and Jinshiyuan, along with relatively stable stocks like Wuliangye, Yingjia Tribute Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Hong Kong's Zhenjiu Lidu [4] - For consumer goods: It recommends increasing allocations in beverages and beer sectors, focusing on growth stocks with opened valuation spaces, and suggests overweighting snack companies like Three Squirrels, Yanjinpuzi, Youfu Food, Jinzhai Food, Qiaqia Food, Ximai Food, and Hong Kong's Weilong Delicious [4] - The report also recommends overweighting beer stocks such as Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and Bai Run Shares, as well as beverage stocks like Dongpeng Beverage, Chengde Lulule, and Li Ziyuan [4] Market Context - The report notes that as of Q1 2025, the holding ratio of active public funds in the food and beverage sector is 8.76%, compared to a weight of 9.45% in the CSI 300 index, indicating a relative underweight status [4] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is currently in a bottom-seeking phase, with increasing differentiation, while beverages and beer are expected to benefit from seasonal consumption catalysts [4] Key Stock Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides detailed forecasts and valuations for key stocks, indicating a consistent recommendation to "Overweight" across various companies, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, with projected EPS growth and PE ratios reflecting positive outlooks [5][6]