Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 0.79% on January 12, with *ST Rock leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of *ST Rock was 3.20, with a gain of 4.92% and a trading volume of 132,400 shares, amounting to 41.70 million yuan [1] - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 141.73, up 2.94%, with a trading volume of 48,000 shares and a transaction value of 675 million yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 119.29, increasing by 2.08%, with a trading volume of 129,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.54 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 403 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 29.32 million yuan [1] - Wuliangye had a main fund net inflow of 267 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 87.06 million yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao recorded a main fund net inflow of 85.62 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 34.07 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.34% as of the report time [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu have surged over 2%, while Wuliangye and Yanghe have increased by more than 1% [1] - Kweichow Moutai has implemented a strategy to stabilize the market by directly reaching consumers through its iMoutai platform, which has gained over 2.7 million new users [1] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai's recent dealer communication emphasized three principles: preventing speculation, adapting supply and demand, and stabilizing the market [2] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the PE ratio of the Huabao ETF at 20.16, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [2] - The white liquor industry is expected to reach a turning point as major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implement market strategies ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The iMoutai platform's launch of the full range of Moutai products is expected to stabilize prices and improve market management [3] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [3] - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked fund for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [3]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.34% as of the latest update [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu have surged over 2%, while Wuliangye and Yanghe have increased by more than 1% [1] - The recent communication from Kweichow Moutai to its distributors emphasizes a strategy to stabilize the market by ensuring product availability directly to consumers, with over 2.7 million new users on the iMoutai platform [2][4] Group 2 - Guojin Securities notes that the market's expectations for the liquor industry are at an absolute low, and the clear volume and price planning from leading companies will alleviate concerns about price competition [3] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, making it a favorable time for investment, with the food and beverage ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.16, which is in the bottom 5.88% of the last decade [3] - CITIC Securities suggests that the current adjustments in the liquor industry may signal a turning point, with the upcoming Spring Festival being a critical observation period for market recovery [4] Group 3 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with about 60% of its portfolio allocated to these sectors [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, indicating a strong focus on established players in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows signs of stabilization in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 12, with an overall price increase after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,925 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 7 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a slowdown in the downward price trend [1]. - The market exhibits a mixed pattern of price changes, with some products increasing in price while others decrease [1]. Price Increases - Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, up 10 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Gujinggong 20, up 7 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, up 5 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang, up 4 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang 20, up 1 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Shujian Jiananspring, stable compared to the previous day [1]. Price Decreases - Significant price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, down 8 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation, down 8 yuan per bottle, falling below 800 yuan for the first time in a month [1][3]. - Boutique Moutai, down 3 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Xijiu Junpin, down 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The stabilization of prices for most core products is the primary factor driving the overall price recovery in the market [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand structure of raw milk is improving, and the snack food sector continues to show upward momentum. The food and beverage index increased by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as processed foods (+6.7%), soft drinks (+5.8%), and snacks (+4.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for raw milk are optimizing, and the snack food sector is experiencing sustained growth. The recent policy by the Ministry of Commerce to implement safeguard measures on imported beef is expected to alleviate the impact on domestic industries, leading to a potential increase in beef prices over the next 2-3 years. The domestic dairy sector is facing challenges, with a continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory, which may lead to a widening supply-demand gap post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.7 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Qianwei Yangchun, Anji Food, and Yangyuan Beverage, while stocks like Jiabi You, *ST Chuntian, and Xianle Health saw declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - As of January 6, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,407 per ton, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year decrease. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term [19][21]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the improving raw milk supply-demand balance and the growth in the snack food sector. Notable mentions include: - Yuran Agriculture: Expected to benefit from the recovery in raw milk prices. - Modern Dairy: Anticipated to gain from the overall industry improvement. - Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy: Expected to see positive impacts from the anticipated recovery in milk prices [10][11]. Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is projected to continue its upward trend, particularly during the Spring Festival season. Companies such as Weilang Delicious, Ganyuan Food, and Yanjin Food are highlighted for their potential growth due to seasonal demand and strategic initiatives [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, with expectations for a recovery in sales and valuation improvements in 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring with a focus on balancing volume and price, and a potential turning point is anticipated in Q3 2026 [2][6]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer price index (CPI) as a key indicator for the consumer goods sector, predicting gradual improvements in food CPI throughout 2026 [2][6]. - The report recommends several high-quality liquor companies for long-term investment, including Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also suggesting attention to Wuliangye and other brands [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview of Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.12% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 2.46%, although it underperformed the broader market by 1.70 percentage points [5]. - Notable stock performances included Ziyuan Food (+33.97%), Qianwei Central Kitchen (+22.52%), and Anji Food (+18.34%) [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sub-sectors - The food and beverage industry lagged behind the Shenwan A index by 3.06 percentage points, with various sub-sectors underperforming, particularly beverages and dairy [33][34]. 3. Liquor Pricing Trends - As of January 10, 2026, the price of Moutai was reported at 1540 RMB for loose bottles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 50 RMB, while the price for a case rose by 40 RMB to 1545 RMB [7][19]. - The report indicates that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks and suggesting a potential for price stability moving forward [7][19]. 4. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in competitive strategies from price-based to quality-based approaches among consumer goods companies, with expectations for improved margins as raw material costs stabilize [2][6]. - Recommendations for consumer goods include Anjijia Food, Yili Group, and Tianwei Food, with a focus on the supply chain related to condiments and frozen foods [8]. 5. Dairy Industry Outlook - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with growth potential in deep-processed products and low-temperature milk [8][9]. - Yili Group's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.3 billion, 12.2 billion, and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [9].

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a 0.4% increase on January 9, with *ST Yanshi leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed varied performance, with *ST Yanshi rising by 5.17% to a closing price of 3.05 [1] Group 2 - The main capital flow in the liquor sector showed a net outflow of 88.94 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 89.93 million yuan [2] - Individual stock capital flows indicated that Kweichow Moutai had a net inflow of 98.51 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3] - Gujing Gongjiu saw a significant net inflow of 67.90 million yuan from institutional investors, while also experiencing outflows from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector showed a positive trend today, with the ETF Huabao (515710) rising by 0.51% as of the report time [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including liquor and consumer goods, performed well, with Lianhua Holdings up over 2% and Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others showing slight gains [1] - The recent launch of premium Moutai products has seen strong demand, with products selling out quickly [1][3] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai is the largest holding in the Huabao ETF, accounting for 14.89% of the portfolio as of Q3 2025 [3] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.16, indicating a potential opportunity for investment [3] - Historical analysis suggests that the current phase of the high-end liquor market may present a bottoming opportunity for capital market investments, especially with the upcoming Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The Huabao ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to beverage, dairy, and seasoning sectors [4] - Investors can also access the core assets of the food and beverage sector through the Huabao ETF linked funds [4] - The redemption fee structure for the Huabao ETF linked funds is outlined, with varying rates based on the investment amount and holding period [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a rebound in retail prices for major products after a period of decline, indicating a stabilization in market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products increased to 8998 yuan, up by 16 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Major products showing price increases include: - Wuliangye Pu Wuyi 8th generation: up 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573: up 7 yuan per bottle - Guqingong 20 and Xijiu Junpin: up 6 yuan per bottle each - Qinghua Fen 20: up 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: up 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of increases - Shuijing Jiananshun: price remained stable [1][5]. Price Declines - Products experiencing price declines include: - Feitian Moutai: down 7 yuan per bottle - Boutique Moutai: down 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang: down 2 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Data Collection - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the market [2]. New Sales Channels - The launch of new sales channels for Moutai products, including the iMoutai platform selling Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Boutique Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle, is expected to influence market prices significantly [2][3].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market has seen a rebound in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 9, following a period of decline, with an overall increase of 16 yuan in total price for a packaged set of these products, now totaling 8998 yuan [1][6][7] Price Trends - The market is experiencing a general upward trend, with notable price increases for several products: - Wuliangye Pu Wubai Dai increased by 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 rose by 7 yuan per bottle - Gu Qing Gong Gu 20 and Xijiu Junpin both increased by 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20 saw a rise of 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price increases - Meanwhile, prices for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai decreased by 7 yuan and 6 yuan per bottle respectively [1][7][10] Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide an objective and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known liquors [2][8] Market Influences - The launch of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle on the iMoutai platform is expected to have a significant impact on the market prices for these products [2][8] Product Launches - iMoutai announced adjustments to the release schedule for Premium Moutai and other products, with specific purchase limits set for consumers starting January 9, 2023, and additional products being introduced on January 10, 2023 [3][8]