Core Insights - The dual festival period of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 did not yield the expected sales peak for the liquor industry, with retail and catering sales only growing by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the May Day holiday [1][3] - The liquor market is experiencing a structural transformation driven by rational consumption, channel revolution, and brand resilience, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for the industry [3] Market Performance - High-end liquor brands showed stable sales during the dual festival period, benefiting from effective volume control and price maintenance strategies, which helped stabilize core product pricing [3][4] - In contrast, mid-range and lower mid-range liquors faced significant challenges, with many products seeing price drops from the 400 yuan range to 200-300 yuan, and sales volumes declining by over 30% for most brands [4][6] - Low-end liquor performed relatively well, with some star products experiencing over 20% year-on-year sales growth, reflecting a shift towards value-for-money consumption [6][8] Regional Variations - The overall liquor market in Sichuan saw a year-on-year sales decline of approximately 20%, with significant drops in the Chengdu market [9][11] - In Guangdong, liquor sales also fell by 20-30% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in corporate group orders and a shift towards lower-priced products [9][11] - The Anhui market saw an increase in banquet events, but the average spending per table decreased, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [11][12] - The Henan market displayed structural opportunities, with some brands achieving growth through product innovation and cultural marketing [12] - Northern provinces like Shandong and Hebei showed signs of recovery, benefiting from a faster rebound in banquet markets [12] Channel Evolution - The liquor industry is undergoing a digital transformation in its channel ecosystem, with major brands adopting instant retail strategies to enhance consumer access [13][15] - Instant retail channels saw significant growth during the dual festival period, with sales on platforms like Meituan increasing by 8 times year-on-year [13][15] - The rise of instant retail reflects a shift in consumer habits towards immediate satisfaction, with younger consumers (aged 25-35) making up over 45% of buyers on these platforms [15][16] Future Trends - The liquor industry's competition is shifting from traditional brand and channel advantages to a more comprehensive competition based on digital capabilities, including data insights and supply chain efficiency [16] - The future of liquor consumption is expected to be characterized by rational, diverse, and instant purchasing behaviors, necessitating a reevaluation of product positioning and marketing strategies by companies [16]

Investment Themes - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, China State Construction, and Ningde Times in the cyclical sector[2] - In the consumer sector, recommended stocks include Hengrui Medicine and Shanxi Fenjiu[2] - In the power equipment and new energy vehicle sector, recommended stocks include Ningde Times and Goldwind Technology[2] - In the TMT sector, recommended stocks include Longi Green Energy and Luxshare Precision[2] Market Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 50.40%[4] - The average gain of the recommended stock portfolio was 33.11%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index's gain of 17.90%[4] - Key outperformers included Huaxin Cement and Ningde Times, with quarterly gains exceeding 50%[4] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with a focus on "appropriate easing" in monetary policy to support growth[4] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery but remained in contraction territory as of September[4] - The report anticipates continued inflow of foreign capital due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets[4] Company Highlights - Huaxin Cement's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.30, with a PE ratio of 14.27[6] - China State Construction's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.16, with a PE ratio of 4.68[12] - China Rare Earth's projected EPS for 2025 is 0.34, with a PE ratio of 150.92[25] - Hengrui Medicine's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.26, with a PE ratio of 56.90[33]

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on October 10, with Gujing Gongjiu leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Stock Performance - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 154.28, down 1.04%, with a trading volume of 16,600 shares and a transaction value of 258 million [2] - Other notable declines include Shanxi Fenjiu at 188.70 (-0.89%), Luzhou Laojiao at 128.87 (-0.76%), and Kweichow Moutai at 1430.00 (-0.47%) [2] - The overall trading volume for the liquor sector showed a net outflow of 760 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 219 million [2][3] Fund Flow Analysis - Shanxi Fenjiu saw a net inflow of 16.18 million from main funds, while it experienced a net outflow of 67.02 million from speculative funds [3] - Gujing Gongjiu had a net inflow of 2.45 million from main funds but faced a significant outflow of 18.77 million from speculative funds [3] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with main funds showing a net outflow across the sector [3]

Group 1 - Shanxi Fenjiu plans to continue focusing its market investment for the Guo Fen series in regions with weaker consumption of light aroma liquor, indicating a commitment to national expansion and a precise strategy to enhance market penetration and consolidate its leading position in the industry [1] - The company aims to inject new momentum into its long-term performance growth through this targeted approach [1] Group 2 - Wuliangye has announced a recruitment plan for 141 positions, including 109 for campus recruitment and 32 for social recruitment, with roles spanning software development, medical positions, human resources, and supply chain management [2] - Notably, the recruitment process includes a physical fitness test, specifically a 1000-meter run, to assess candidates' physical condition, reflecting the company's emphasis on physical capability for production roles [2] - This approach ensures that frontline employees can meet the physical demands of high-intensity work, which is crucial for maintaining product quality and production stability [2] Group 3 - Zhujiang Beer has launched a new product, Bitter Melon and Cucumber flavored beer, which features a unique blend of American hops and fruit aromas, aiming to diversify its product matrix and attract younger consumers seeking novel experiences [3] - The introduction of this product is seen as a way to refresh the brand image, although its market acceptance and immediate impact on short-term performance remain to be evaluated [3]

当下酒企业绩大幅放缓的本质是中国白酒产业正经历一场从"规模扩张"到"价值提升"的深刻转型。 从依赖规模扩张的放量增长模式，转向注重效率与创新的结构增长路径。 汾酒将继续深入践行汾酒复兴纲领，通过科学营销和稳健经营，推动汾酒营销全要素、高质量发 展。在电商和即时零售爆火下，公司将积极拥抱新渠道，促进线上线下融合，通过建立官方直播平台， 打通门店本地生活业务。利用"双十一"等电商节庆开展品牌推广与消费者互动活动。 山西汾酒：当前酒企业绩大幅放缓的本质是行业正经历 【中国白酒网】10月9日，山西汾酒举办2025年半年度业绩说明会。会上管理层介绍，白酒行业目 前正处于深度调整时期。公司积极应对，采取了促动销、降库存等一系列措施。 从"规模扩张"到"价值提升"的转型 ...

从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1436.78元/股，下跌0.50%；五粮液收盘价达121.16元/股，下跌0.26%； 山西汾酒收盘价达190.39元/股，下跌1.87%；泸州老窖收盘价129.86元/股，下跌1.56%；洋河股份收盘 价达67.61元/股，下跌0.49%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）10月9日尾盘，三大指数集体上涨，沪指3933.97点上涨1.32%。白酒 板块以2241.33点收盘下跌0.46%，其中18只白酒股下跌。 中信证券指出，白酒行业当前正处于过去三十年以来第三轮大周期的筑底阶段。本轮白酒周期在经济环 境、白酒行业价格库存发展趋势、上市公司报表业绩表现、行业政策变化、资本市场表现等诸多方面与 白酒行业在2012—2016年有诸多相同之处。考虑到当前库存、价格、政策影响、消费场景恢复、上市公 司报表等众多因素，中信证券认为本轮行业基本面底有望出现在2025年三季度，今年下半年是白酒上市 公司报表业绩压力最大的阶段，预计最早2026年一季度有望看到动销拐点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price conflict between e-commerce platforms and liquor companies is intensifying, with promotional prices for major liquor brands falling below wholesale prices, putting pressure on offline channels [3][4]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Major liquor brands are offering significant discounts, with prices for products like Feitian Moutai dropping from a market retail price of approximately 1900 RMB to 1700 RMB, while the wholesale price is around 1780 RMB [3]. - Wuliangye's core product, Pu Wuliang, is being sold at a promotional price of 769 RMB, compared to a wholesale price of 840 RMB [3]. - The trend of lower prices is not limited to top brands; other well-known brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jian Nan Chun are also selling below wholesale prices [3]. Group 2: Impact on Distribution Channels - Due to price fluctuations, offline distributors are hesitant to stock up, affecting the sales rhythm of distributors [3]. - Traditionally, liquor prices would rise before major holidays, but this year has seen no increase, with expectations of further price declines post-holiday [3][4]. Group 3: E-commerce Influence - The rise of e-commerce has disrupted the traditional pricing control that liquor companies had, leading to a significant increase in online price competition [4]. - The internet penetration rate for liquor sales has increased from under 10% to around 20% due to recent e-commerce promotions, with projections suggesting it could reach 50% in the next five years [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift towards online sales necessitates changes in the sales model for liquor companies, as e-commerce now offers traceability and lower prices [5]. - Analysts predict that within three years, half of the traditional offline liquor stores may exit the market, prompting liquor companies to rethink their strategies [5].

10月9日，山西汾酒举办2025年半年度业绩说明会。会上管理层介绍，白酒行业目前正处于深度调整时 期。公司积极应对，采取了促动销、降库存等一系列措施。 当下酒企业绩大幅放缓的本质是中国白酒产业正经历一场从"规模扩张"到"价值提升"的深刻转型。从依 赖规模扩张的放量增长模式，转向注重效率与创新的结构增长路径。 汾酒将继续深入践行汾酒复兴纲领，通过科学营销和稳健经营，推动汾酒营销全要素、高质量发展。在 电商和即时零售爆火下，公司将积极拥抱新渠道，促进线上线下融合，通过建立官方直播平台，打通门 店本地生活业务。利用"双十一"等电商节庆开展品牌推广与消费者互动活动。 （上证路演） (编辑：林辰)关键字： 山西汾酒 白酒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the holiday season is expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations, although there are some positive indicators in specific segments [3][5]. Group 1: Liquor Sales Performance - Liquor sales showed marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday but gradually slowed down afterward, with an overall expected decline of around 20% [3]. - High-end products, particularly from Moutai and Wuliangye, demonstrated good turnover, while mid-range products like Wuliang Chun and Honghua Lang saw double-digit growth in certain regions [3][4]. - Demand for large gatherings remains relatively strong, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan, particularly in the mid-price range [3]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Performance varies significantly by province, with Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results, while other regions like Hunan and Anhui met expectations with declines of over 20% [3][4]. - Feedback from various regions indicates that while some areas experienced a decline, the overall performance was not as poor as initially anticipated [3]. Group 3: Channel Inventory and Pricing - Channel inventory is experiencing slight depletion but remains at a high level, with a balance between incoming and outgoing shipments expected to continue into Q4 2025 and H1 2026 [5]. - Pricing remains stable with slight increases, although there is anticipated downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies are generally reducing their promotional spending, focusing more on consumer-end products rather than channel products, with a notable shift towards secondary products [6]. - Despite reduced spending, leading brands are still managing to increase their market share in specific segments, indicating a competitive market landscape [6]. - The overall collection and shipment progress for companies is lagging by over 10% compared to last year, with some brands maintaining their targets while others are struggling [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current liquor cycle is seen as entering a bottoming phase, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower performance risks, those expected to confirm performance bottoms, and those undergoing significant transformations [7]. - Specific companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are highlighted as priority investments due to their resilience [7]. - Attention is also drawn to companies like Yanghe and Jiuzi Li Du, which are undergoing changes that could lead to future growth [7].

汾酒将继续深入践行汾酒复兴纲领，通过科学营销和稳健经营，推动汾酒营销全要素、高质量发展。在 电商和即时零售爆火下，公司将积极拥抱新渠道，促进线上线下融合，通过建立官方直播平台，打通门 店本地生活业务。利用"双十一"等电商节庆开展品牌推广与消费者互动活动。 （上证路演） 10月9日，山西汾酒举办2025年半年度业绩说明会。会上管理层介绍，白酒行业目前正处于深度调整时 期。公司积极应对，采取了促动销、降库存等一系列措施。 当下酒企业绩大幅放缓的本质是中国白酒产业正经历一场从"规模扩张"到"价值提升"的深刻转型。从依 赖规模扩张的放量增长模式，转向注重效率与创新的结构增长路径。 ...