Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [35] Core Views - The report indicates that the white liquor market remains stable, with a focus on high-performing companies. The market is expected to see single-digit positive growth in Q1 2025 for major white liquor companies, supported by strong performance from core products. Long-term demand recovery is anticipated with the implementation of consumer policies, although short-term tariff risks need to be monitored [6][4][8] - In the food sector, the report highlights the emergence of new products in the snack industry and suggests investment opportunities in the snack and catering supply chain. The snack industry is experiencing high growth due to channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery [6][9] Summary by Sections White Liquor Industry - The white liquor index saw a cumulative increase of 0.23% this week, with top performers including Jinshiyuan (+1.94%), Luzhou Laojiao (+1.24%), and Guizhou Moutai (+0.73%). Conversely, Yinjia Gongjiu (-3.05%), Huangtai Jiuye (-4.64%), and Yanshi Co. (-31.24%) were the worst performers [6] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: high-end white liquor with strong demand (Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range white liquor with ongoing national expansion (Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor with expanding price ranges (Yinjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Ganjiu, Gujing Gongjiu) [6][4] Food Industry - The food index experienced a cumulative decline of 0.41% this week, with top gainers being Guangming Meat Industry (+13.02%), Jiahe Food (+6.44%), and Yanjinpuzi (+5.33%). The worst performers included Xiwang Food (-7.24%), Lianhua Holdings (-9.29%), and Baiyang Co. (-12.25%) [6] - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the snack sector and suggests monitoring companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi. It also notes a potential slight recovery in the catering industry, recommending attention to related sectors such as beer, condiments, and frozen foods, with specific mentions of Yanjing Beer, Haitian Flavoring, and Anjui Foods [6][9] Individual Company Insights - Guizhou Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15.44% in 2024, with a stable operational rhythm despite a weak macroeconomic environment [7] - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, aiming to bolster market confidence [7] - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see growth driven by its strong brand foundation and strategic market expansion [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% in Q3 2024, with a focus on marketing reforms and channel expansion [7] - In the food sector, East Peng Beverage reported a 45.34% revenue increase, while Haitian Flavoring showed a 9.38% revenue growth, indicating resilience in their respective markets [10][11]

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2025-009 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司关于 2025 年度第一、二期超短期融资券兑付完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）于 2025 年 2 月 成功发行了 2025 年度第一、二期超短期融资券，具体情况如下： | 名称 | | | 发行总额 | | 发行利率 | 发行期限 | | | | 起息日 | | | | | 兑付日 | | | | 公告编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司 期超短期融资券 | 2025 | 年度第一 | 60 | 亿元 | 1.88% | 37 | 天 | 2025 | 年 | 2 月 | 17 | 日 | 2025 | 年 | 3 | 月 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Major Consumer Dividend Index has shown a slight increase of 0.08%, indicating a stable performance in the consumer sector despite recent fluctuations in the broader market [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Major Consumer Dividend Index has increased by 4.17% over the past month, but has decreased by 4.25% over the last three months and is down 2.97% year-to-date [2]. - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of high dividend yield securities in the major consumer sector, calculated using a dividend yield weighting method [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include: Shuanghui Development (5.44%), COFCO Sugar (4.55%), Meihua Biological Technology (3.92%), Yili Group (3.4%), and others, with a total of 10 companies listed [2]. - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (51.40%) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (48.60%) [2]. - The index exclusively comprises stocks from the major consumer sector, with a 100% allocation [2]. Group 3: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted annually, with the adjustment occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of December [3]. - A buffer zone is established for sample selection, allowing certain stocks to be exempt from strict criteria if they meet specific cash dividend yield and trading volume conditions [3]. - The weight factors are adjusted in line with the sample changes, and temporary adjustments can occur under special circumstances [3].

Group 1 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 major consumer index increased by 0.28%, closing at 22,960.31 points with a trading volume of 14.755 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the major consumer index has risen by 6.27%, while it has decreased by 0.04% over the last three months and increased by 0.81% year-to-date [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumer index include Kweichow Moutai (45.05%), Wuliangye (11.78%), Yili (8.19%), Muyuan Foods (4.97%), Shanxi Fenjiu (4.73%), Luzhou Laojiao (4.43%), Wens Foodstuff (4.14%), Haitian Flavoring (3.08%), Dongpeng Beverage (2.2%), and Yanghe Brewery (2.11%) [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 66.27% of the major consumer index holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 33.73% [2] - The major consumer index is composed entirely of consumer-related stocks, with a 100% allocation [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Core Points - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Food and Beverage Index is reported at 24,563.26 points, with a recent one-month increase of 6.60% and a year-to-date increase of 0.73% [1] - The index is composed of 300 sample stocks categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Kweichow Moutai (51.19%), Wuliangye (13.41%), Yili (9.35%), Shanxi Fenjiu (5.36%), and others [1] Market Composition - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 75.29% of the holdings in the index, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 24.71% [2] - In terms of industry composition, liquor represents 80.91%, dairy products 9.35%, condiments and cooking oils 4.48%, soft drinks 2.45%, meat products 1.41%, and beer 1.40% [2] Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index samples [2] - Special events affecting sample companies may lead to adjustments in the industry index samples, including delisting or corporate actions such as mergers and acquisitions [2]

3月23日，中国发展高层论坛2025年年会在北京钓鱼台国宾馆举行。本次年会主题为"全面释放发展动能，共促全球经济稳定增长"，与会人士就提振消费与 扩大内需，以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，大健康产业高质量发展等十二个专题进行深入研讨，共话机遇和挑战。伊利集团高级执行总裁刘春喜受邀参 会，并在"大健康产业高质量发展"专题讨论会中，分享了伊利培育"奶业新质生产力"，引领中国奶业为"健康中国"筑牢根基的经验。 伊利集团高级执行总裁刘春喜在"大健康产业高质量发展"专题研讨会上发言 近年来，中国奶业加快培育"奶业新质生产力"，持续打造以牛奶为核心的健康产业链，推动大健康产业的高质量发展，为"健康中国"筑牢根基。作为行业领 军者，伊利集团以科技创新攻关奶业核心技术，以数智升级实现行业全链提质增效，加快形成"奶业新质生产力"，助力推进健康中国建设。 攻关奶业核心技术，为国民营养健康筑基 尽管我国奶业发展水平持续上升，市场规模稳步扩大，但是仍面临着许多关键原料技术被制约的情况。伊利引领行业，通过科技创新，陆续在"奶业精深加 工技术、乳基原料国产化"等奶业瓶颈与技术制约上实现突破。不仅促进行业发展，有的还实现对国外垄断技术的"反 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. is "Accumulate" with a target price of 35.00 RMB, up from the previous forecast of 33.53 RMB [2][13]. Core Views - The dairy industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, benefiting leading companies like Yili to increase market share. The company is projected to experience healthy growth in liquid milk, with other business segments contributing to revenue growth. Profit elasticity is anticipated to be released following a reduction in impairments, and policy-driven improvements in liquid milk market conditions are expected to act as a catalyst [3][13]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 123,171 million RMB - 2023A: 126,179 million RMB - 2024E: 120,414 million RMB - 2025E: 124,520 million RMB - 2026E: 132,564 million RMB - Revenue growth rates: 11.4% (2022A), 2.4% (2023A), -4.6% (2024E), 3.4% (2025E), 6.5% (2026E) [4]. - **Net Profit (Attributable to Parent)**: - 2022A: 9,431 million RMB - 2023A: 10,429 million RMB - 2024E: 11,826 million RMB - 2025E: 11,099 million RMB - 2026E: 12,499 million RMB - Net profit growth rates: 8.3% (2022A), 10.6% (2023A), 13.4% (2024E), -6.1% (2025E), 12.6% (2026E) [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.48 RMB - 2023A: 1.64 RMB - 2024E: 1.86 RMB - 2025E: 1.74 RMB - 2026E: 1.96 RMB [4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022A: 18.8% - 2023A: 19.5% - 2024E: 21.0% - 2025E: 19.0% - 2026E: 20.6% [4]. Market Data - **Current Price**: 29.75 RMB - **Market Capitalization**: 189,386 million RMB - **52-week Price Range**: 21.37 - 30.23 RMB [5]. Industry Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, leading to a decline in fresh milk prices. However, the report suggests that the worst phase for the industry has passed, with expectations for stabilization in milk prices by Q3 2025, which could improve the competitive landscape [13]. - Yili is expected to achieve healthy growth in liquid milk and other segments, with infant formula benefiting from a slight rebound in birth rates and adult formula focusing on functional product development [13]. - The report emphasizes that cost reductions and lower impairment losses are expected to enhance profit elasticity, with a maintained target net profit margin of 9% for 2025 [13].

Group 1 - The compound seasoning industry is expected to reach a revenue of 134.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2019 to 2024 [16][21][29] - The hot pot base market is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in the next five years, with a market size of approximately 600 billion CNY [33][35] - The Chinese compound seasoning sector is still in its growth phase, with significant opportunities for new product development, particularly in categories like sauerkraut fish and crayfish seasoning [41][43] Group 2 - In February, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 2.2 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor showing strong performance [12][20] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at the 12th percentile and the price-to-book (PB) ratio at the 23rd percentile since 2010 [12][24] - The net inflow of southbound funds in February reached 152.8 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in stocks like Qingdao Beer and COFCO Joycome [12][14] Group 3 - The liquor market is experiencing a recovery, with companies controlling inventory and maintaining prices, as seen with the price of Moutai at 2,210 CNY per bottle [17][32] - The sales of consumer goods improved in February, particularly in beer, dairy products, and frozen foods, while raw material prices showed mixed trends [18][19] - The overall retail sales in January and February 2025 are expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [28][31] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include key players in the liquor sector such as Luzhou Laojiao, Jinshiyuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as consumer goods companies like Yanjing Beer and Tianwei Foods [10][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for new product launches in the compound seasoning market, driven by changing consumer preferences and the expansion of retail channels like Sam's Club [41][43] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, further supporting the growth of the food and beverage sector [29][31]

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 捕捉LP圈一周商业情报。 作者丨王满华 来源丨投中网 如今都说募资难，特别是募市场化LP的钱更是难于上青天。 除了工行的消息外，据投中网不完全统计，本周LP圈共有16条动态，推荐关注中国人寿发起设立的 鸿鹄基金二期、湖南建投集团发起的30亿元产业母基金、紫金港资本海宁海愿基金，以及30亿规模 的江苏省节能环保战新产业基金。 新基金 工商银行启动800亿元科技创新基金 2025年3月12日，中国工商银行与全国工商联在北京联合举办"金融助企 提质向新"金融赋能民营企业 高质量发展推进会，会议现场举办了工商银行科技创新基金启动仪式。该基金总规模800亿元，定位 耐心资本，以股为主，股债贷保联动，将持续加大对硬科技、民营经济的支持，为实体经济注入股权 投资力量。 首只险资私募证券基金已投资落地500亿元，获批设立二期基金 为了解决这一难题，近一年来，鼓励市场化资金参与股权投资的政策频出，特别是如何有序引导银行 加大对科技创新和创业投资的支持力度，一直是有关部门的工作重点。 2024年9月，金融监管总局发布《关于扩大金融资产投资公司股权投资试点范围的通知》，给银行系 资金入 ...

超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/02/28-2025/03/13） 行 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 14 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 业 周 报 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年2月28日-2025年3月13日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨1.62%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第十位，跑赢同期沪深300指数 约3.05个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程。今年政府工作报告提 出，要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。此外，国 务院新闻办公室将于2025年3月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会，请有关 ...