Core Viewpoint - The oil industry is experiencing an unprecedented performance downturn in 2025, with major Chinese oil companies and international oil giants reporting significant declines in revenue and net profit, raising concerns about the potential peak of the oil era [1][3][23]. Group 1: Performance Decline of Chinese Oil Companies - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) reported revenue of 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.68%, and net profit of 839.93 billion yuan, down 5.21%, marking the first dual decline since 2021 [1]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) achieved revenue of 1.41 trillion yuan, down 10.6%, and net profit of 214.83 billion yuan, a decline of 39.8%, the largest drop since 2021 [1]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported revenue of 207.61 billion yuan, down 8%, and net profit of 695.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 13%, the worst half-year report since 2021 [1]. Group 2: Performance Decline of International Oil Giants - Major international oil companies also faced significant profit declines: Saudi Aramco's net profit fell by 10%, ExxonMobil by 15%, TotalEnergies by 21%, Shell by 29.8%, and Chevron and BP by over 30% [1][2]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to Performance Decline - The primary reason for the performance decline is the downward trend in international crude oil prices, influenced by trade wars and OPEC+ production increases [4][7]. - In the first half of 2025, the average crude oil price for CNPC and CNOOC was $66.21 per barrel and $69.15 per barrel, respectively, down 14.5% and 13.9% year-on-year [7]. - The domestic refined oil market experienced ten price adjustments, resulting in a decrease of 330 yuan/ton for gasoline and 315 yuan/ton for diesel [6]. Group 4: Industry Transformation and Peak Oil Demand - The oil demand in China is showing signs of peaking earlier than expected, driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, which accounted for 44.3% of total car sales in the first half of 2025 [12]. - Policies aimed at promoting green innovation in the refining industry are expected to accelerate the peak oil process, with a cap on crude oil processing capacity set at 1 billion tons by 2025 [15]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that China's oil demand will peak in 2026 at approximately 16.5 million barrels per day, influenced by electrification and structural economic changes [21]. Group 5: Strategic Responses from Chinese Oil Companies - In response to the changing landscape, the three major Chinese oil companies are accelerating their transition to renewable energy, with CNPC planning to balance oil, gas, and renewable energy by 2035 [23]. - Sinopec aims for carbon neutrality around 2050 and is focusing on integrating hydrogen with oil and gas operations [23]. - CNOOC is developing offshore renewable energy technologies and aims to create a circular economy model in marine energy [23].

Investment Strategy - The global oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the global carbon neutrality process has accelerated, resulting in a significant decrease in upstream capital expenditure, which was $351 billion in 2021, down nearly 22% from the 2014 peak. The capital expenditure is expected to continue to shrink as major energy companies face pressure from policies and the need for transformation [8][24][25] - The report suggests focusing on companies that benefit from high oil prices and increased capital expenditure, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and Sinopec [9][24] Oil Market - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities, which have led to a decrease in Russian refining capacity. Brent crude oil is priced at $67.62 per barrel, down 0.43% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil is at $64.16 per barrel, up 1.63% week-on-week [9][27][28] - OPEC's unexpected speed in reducing production and the resilience of demand, supported by recent GDP growth forecasts from the World Bank and IMF, suggest that oil prices may continue to fluctuate [9][24] Coal Market - The thermal coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to weakened downstream demand. The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 695 yuan per ton, down 1.14% week-on-week. The total inventory at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim is reported at 23.08 million tons, down 0.79% [10][11] - The report highlights that domestic coal production is being maintained at normal levels, but some areas are affected by rainfall, leading to supply tightness. The demand from power plants remains stable, but the cement market is weak [10][11] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is currently in a stalemate, with the price of coking coal remaining stable at 1,610 yuan per ton. The report notes that safety inspections are tightening, limiting the supply of coking coal, while steel mills are cautious about purchasing due to weak market conditions [13][14] - The report suggests focusing on coking coal producers with strong resource capabilities, such as Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from price increases [14] Natural Gas Market - The report mentions the potential restart of the Datang Group's coal-to-gas project in Liaoning, which is the largest single investment project in Fuxin's history. The average price of natural gas in the U.S. is $2.82 per million British thermal units, up 1.3% week-on-week [15][16] - European natural gas prices are also rising, with the UK IPE natural gas price at $10.95 per million British thermal units, up 2.0% week-on-week [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services industry is expected to maintain its prosperity due to government policies supporting energy security. The total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies is projected to be 583.3 billion yuan in 2023, with CNOOC showing a compound growth rate of 13.1% [18][19] - The global active rig count is reported at 1,621, with a slight increase in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a stable outlook for the oilfield services sector [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing strength, particularly in cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, metals, pharmaceuticals, coal, and steel, with the launch of the Tianhong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159281) on September 2, 2023, which aims to track high dividend-yielding central enterprises [1] Group 1: ETF and Index Details - The Tianhong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF has an annual management fee of 0.5% and a custody fee of 0.1% [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index (931233), which selects stable dividend-paying companies controlled by central enterprises within the Stock Connect framework [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the index's sector distribution includes banking, transportation, non-bank financials, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals, with the top ten constituents accounting for 31% of the index [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The index has a dividend yield exceeding 7% as of the end of Q2 2025 [3] - Historical performance shows that the index achieved an annualized return of 14.27% over the past five years, with an annualized volatility of 22.02% as of July 9, 2025 [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The investment value of Hong Kong central enterprise dividends is expected to continue benefiting from inflows of southbound capital, structural market conditions, and a focus on investor returns through improved dividend policies [4] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to rise further in the second half of the year, driven by three positive factors, including the AI cycle benefiting technology stocks and the low-interest-rate environment enhancing dividend attractiveness [4]

Group 1 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) experienced a slight decline of 0.35% in stock price on August 29, with a trading volume of 2.228 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, CNOOC had a financing buy-in amount of 184 million yuan and a financing repayment of 144 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of approximately 39.65 million yuan [1] - As of August 29, the total financing and securities lending balance for CNOOC was 1.858 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 2.40% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - CNOOC, established on August 20, 1999, primarily engages in the exploration, production, and sales of crude oil and natural gas, with operations in various countries including China, Canada, the USA, the UK, Nigeria, and Brazil [2] - The company's revenue composition shows that oil and gas sales account for 84.57%, trade for 13.11%, and other businesses for 2.32% [2] - For the first half of 2025, CNOOC reported a revenue of 207.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.533 billion yuan, down 12.79% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, CNOOC has distributed a total of 224.335 billion yuan in dividends, with 176.364 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, CNOOC had 232,800 shareholders, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous period, with an average of 12,936 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 5.50% [2][3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the newest shareholder, holding 5.94779 million shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but demonstrated resilience in profitability despite falling oil prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 207.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.79% year-on-year - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 69.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year - In Q2 2025, operating revenue was 100.8 billion yuan, a decline of 12.62% year-on-year, with net profit of 33 billion yuan, down 17.6% year-on-year [1]. Production and Pricing - The company's net oil and gas production reached a historical high of 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first half of 2025, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year - Domestic production was 266.5 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7.6% year-on-year, driven by projects like "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II - International production was 118.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, a rise of 2.8% year-on-year, mainly from projects in Brazil and Guyana - The average Brent crude oil price was $70.81 per barrel, down 15.09% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was $69.15 per barrel, a decrease of 13.91% [2]. Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control throughout exploration, development, and production processes, establishing a competitive cost advantage in the industry - The main cost per barrel of oil was $26.94, a decrease of 2.92% year-on-year, with other taxes (excluding income tax) down 10.98% due to falling international oil prices [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that oil prices will stabilize at a mid-to-high level, with production targets for net oil and gas output set at 760-780 million, 780-800 million, and 810-830 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2025-2027, respectively - Expected year-on-year growth rates for these targets are 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout twice a year, with a total dividend of 1.40 HKD per share in 2024, representing a payout ratio of approximately 44.7% - For the first half of 2025, an interim dividend of 0.73 HKD per share is proposed, with a payout ratio of 45.5% - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 2-4 billion RMB within the next 12 months and expects EPS of 2.83, 2.93, and 2.98 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 9.09X, 8.75X, and 8.61X [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a record high in mid-term cash dividends, with 810 companies planning to distribute a total of 642.81 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.56% in dividend amount and 15.06% in the number of companies participating, both reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution - 810 companies have announced mid-term cash dividend plans for 2025, with a total proposed payout of 642.81 billion yuan [1]. - Over 300 companies are planning to issue mid-term cash dividends for the first time [7]. - Among companies with dividends exceeding 1 billion yuan, "state-owned enterprises" account for about 30% [1][3]. Group 2: Major Contributors - China Mobile leads with a proposed cash dividend of 54.08 billion yuan, distributing 2.5025 yuan per share [3]. - Other major telecom operators, China Telecom and China Unicom, plan to distribute 16.58 billion yuan and 3.477 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The "three oil giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) collectively plan to distribute over 80 billion yuan in mid-term dividends [3][4]. Group 3: Performance and Support - A significant number of companies have shown robust performance, with 522 out of 810 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit [5]. - Companies like Muyuan Foods and WuXi AppTec have demonstrated exceptional profit growth, with Muyuan's net profit increasing nearly 12 times [6]. - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue increase of 10.22% and a net profit increase of 15.59%, leading to a proposed dividend of 2.69 yuan per share [6]. Group 4: Market Implications - The trend of increasing cash dividends is seen as a sign of market maturity, enhancing long-term returns and improving market ecology [8]. - The rise in dividend payouts is expected to stabilize market expectations and attract more investors [8].

2025 年 8 月 31 日 行业研究 25H1 石化行业业绩承压，关注油价预期变化与"反内卷"进程 油服业绩逆势上行，石化工程企业新签合同高增。2025H1，油服行业一方面 受益于国内"增储上产"持续推进，一方面海外业务逐渐进入业绩释放期，使 得主要油服企业经营质量明显上升，在油价下跌的同时业绩逆势上行。 2025H1，中海油服、海油工程、海油发展、石化油服毛利率分别同比上升 0.71、 5.43、1.18、0.41pct，经营质量持续改善。25H1 石化工程行业新签合同持续 高增，中石化炼化工程 25H1 新签合同总额增长 42.1%，中油工程 25H1 海外 新签合同同比增长 9.86%。随着海外高毛利项目逐渐释放业绩，石化工程行 业盈利能力有望持续上行。 炼化-化纤产业链需求修复偏弱，"反内卷"有望修复行业景气度。25H1，主 要石油化工产品需求修复较弱，叠加油价下跌带来库存损失，大炼化公司业绩 普遍下行，恒力石化、荣盛石化 25H1 归母净利润分别同比-24.1%、-29.8%。 受益于化纤景气度回升，化纤上市公司业绩上行，25H1 桐昆股份、新凤鸣归 母净利润分别同比+2.9%、+17.3%。2 ...

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved a significant technological breakthrough in offshore heavy oil thermal recovery, with cumulative production surpassing 5 million tons, making China the first country to master and successfully apply large-scale offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology [1][3] Industry Overview - Heavy oil accounts for 70% of the remaining global oil resources, making it a crucial area for oil production increase [1] - The thermal recovery technique involves injecting high-temperature and high-pressure steam into the reservoir to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil, transforming it into a more easily extractable "light oil" [1] Project Development - CNOOC's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery projects are primarily located in the Bohai Sea, with successful operations in key oil fields such as Nanpu 35-2, Luda 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [3] - The successful operation of these oil fields not only supports China's oil production but also provides valuable experience and reference for global heavy oil extraction [3] Future Outlook - The technological breakthrough demonstrates CNOOC's strong capabilities in offshore oil extraction and injects new vitality into energy security for China and the world [3] - With continuous maturation and improvement of the technology, CNOOC is expected to lead the development trend of global heavy oil extraction technology in the future [3]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to realize large-scale thermal recovery development of offshore heavy oil [1] Group 1: Technology and Equipment - Heavy oil, characterized by high viscosity, density, and poor flowability, poses significant extraction challenges, especially in offshore environments where operational space is limited and costs are high [1] - CNOOC has developed world-leading equipment capable of withstanding temperatures up to 350°C for thermal recovery, including compact and efficient thermal injection equipment, downhole safety control systems, and long-lasting sand control devices [1] - The company has also designed and constructed the world's first mobile thermal injection platform, "Thermal Recovery No. 1," filling a gap in China's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery equipment sector [1] Group 2: Production Areas - The offshore heavy oil thermal recovery operations are primarily concentrated in the Bohai Sea, with key thermal recovery oil fields established, including Nanpu 35-2, Luda 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [1]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to achieve large-scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil [1][4] Industry Overview - Heavy oil, characterized by high viscosity, density, and poor flowability, poses significant extraction challenges, especially in offshore environments where operational space is limited and costs are high [1] - Approximately 70% of the world's remaining oil resources consist of heavy oil, making it a primary focus for oil-producing countries aiming to increase production [1] Technological Advancements - CNOOC has developed a "few wells, high yield" thermal recovery theory, utilizing a large well spacing approach combined with high-intensity injection and multi-phase thermal fluid collaboration to enhance single well output [4] - The company has successfully created world-leading equipment capable of withstanding temperatures of 350°C for thermal recovery, along with a mobile thermal injection platform, "Thermal Recovery No. 1," filling a gap in offshore heavy oil thermal recovery equipment [4] Production Capacity and Future Plans - The development of the thermal recovery technology system and core equipment has accelerated the construction of offshore heavy oil production capacity, with expectations to exceed 1 million tons in production by 2024 [4] - CNOOC plans to intensify technological research and expedite the development of heavy oil fields to continuously enhance the ability to utilize heavy oil reserves [4]