Core Viewpoint - The profitability of overseas storage manufacturers continues to improve, while some domestic storage module companies are rapidly turning losses into profits. The profit release is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, benefiting from the rising prices in the storage market driven by demand from AI and multi-modal applications [1][4]. Demand Side - The demand for storage is significantly increasing in the AI era, shifting from mobile and internet companies to generative AI. Flash storage demand in data centers is projected to grow from 600EB in 2020 to 2.4ZB by 2028. The Sora2 model's deep learning capabilities require substantial storage, consuming nearly 100MB for a 10-second 4K video, which is hundreds to thousands of times more than text storage needs. By 2026, global NAND Flash bit demand is expected to exceed 200EB, with AI driving increased storage needs across various data types [2][3]. Technology Side - Storage manufacturers are set to release HBM4 products in bulk by 2026, with companies like Micron expected to sell out their HBM capacity. Various companies are developing advanced storage solutions, such as CUBE and 3D DRAM, to meet innovation trends. New architectures like CBA are being adopted to enhance performance, and NAND stacking architectures are being proposed to address memory wall issues in data centers and edge AI applications [2][3]. Supply Side - Due to the higher profitability of HBM products, storage manufacturers are actively controlling production capacity to maintain price increases. Capital expenditures are focused on high-end products, with no significant plans for expanding NAND Flash production. Consequently, NAND Flash capital expenditure is expected to remain low in 2026, and new production lines will take time to come online, leading to a supply-demand gap [3][4]. Price Trends - In October, prices for various storage models accelerated, with month-on-month increases ranging from 40% to 100%. The demand from AI servers has prompted storage manufacturers to announce price hikes, with some Taiwanese and mainland module manufacturers following suit, resulting in an overall industry inventory buildup [3][4]. Future Outlook - Unlike the temporary price increases seen in 2024 due to production cuts and price hikes, the current storage industry cycle is primarily driven by the explosion of storage demand in the AI era, coupled with limited supply-side capacity. The supply-demand gap is expected to widen further in the first half of 2026, with price increases likely to continue [3][4].

Core Insights - The number of new margin trading accounts opened in October decreased significantly compared to September, reflecting market volatility and holiday effects, but remains the fourth highest this year [1][3] - As of the end of October, the total number of margin trading accounts reached approximately 15.4 million, with the margin trading balance increasing from less than 1.9 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 2.49 trillion yuan [2][5] - Major brokerages, including Huatai Securities and China Merchants Securities, have raised their margin trading business limits, indicating a strong demand for credit trading in the A-share market [2][7] Margin Trading Account Data - In October, 130,200 new margin trading accounts were opened, a decrease of 36.61% from 205,400 in September [1][3] - The total number of margin trading accounts reached 15,398,800 by the end of October [5] - The margin trading balance stood at 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 1.6 trillion yuan [2][5] Brokerages' Business Expansion - Two leading brokerages announced significant increases in their margin trading business limits, with China Merchants Securities raising its limit from 150 billion yuan to 250 billion yuan [7][8] - Huatai Securities also approved a similar increase, allowing its margin trading business limit to be up to three times its net capital, estimated at around 286.5 billion yuan [8] - At least six brokerages have raised their margin trading and related financing business limits this year, reflecting a positive outlook on market conditions [8][9] Market Trends - The demand for margin trading remains strong despite the recent decline in new account openings, indicating a robust interest in credit trading among investors [2][5] - The fluctuation in new account openings for margin trading aligns closely with the trends observed in A-share new account openings, suggesting a synchronized impact of market sentiment on both trading types [4][5]

Core Insights - The number of new margin trading accounts opened in October decreased significantly to 130,200, down 36.61% from September's 205,400, influenced by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays and market volatility [1][2] - Despite the decline in new account openings, the total number of margin trading accounts reached 15.39 million by the end of October, with the margin trading balance increasing from less than 1.9 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 2.49 trillion yuan [1][4] - Major brokerages, including Huatai Securities and China Merchants Securities, have raised their margin trading business limits, indicating optimism about the future of margin trading in the A-share market [5][6] Summary by Sections New Account Openings - In October, 130,200 new margin trading accounts were opened, a significant decrease from September's 205,400 [1][2] - The trend in new account openings for A-shares mirrored that of margin trading accounts, suggesting a correlation between market sentiment and investor activity [2] Total Accounts and Balances - As of the end of October, the total number of margin trading accounts reached 15.39 million, with a margin trading balance of 2.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.46% of the A-share market's circulating market value [4] Brokerages' Response - Two leading brokerages announced increases in their margin trading business limits in late October, with China Merchants Securities raising its limit from 150 billion yuan to 250 billion yuan, a 100 billion yuan increase [5][6] - Huatai Securities also approved a similar increase, with its margin trading limit estimated at approximately 286.5 billion yuan based on its net capital [6] - At least six securities firms have raised their margin trading limits this year, reflecting strong demand for margin trading amid favorable market conditions [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI narrative has influenced the slope of market trends rather than the overall trend itself, with a focus on the stability of the corporate overseas environment and AI infrastructure investment [2] - The A-share market is expected to maintain resilience supported by stable economic and policy expectations, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new consumption [3] - The market is preparing for a new upward trend, with structural highlights in the third-quarter reports indicating fundamental resilience [3] Group 2 - The A-share market is likely to remain in a volatile state, with long-term upward trends in technology growth facing short-term fundamental concerns [4] - There are three parts of mid-term returns yet to be realized, including cyclical improvement, asset allocation towards equities, and China's increasing global influence [5] - November is favorable for small-cap and thematic investments, with a focus on themes related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" such as AI applications and new materials [7] Group 3 - The recent market rally is seen as a preemptive move for a cyclical recovery year, with price increases concentrated in sectors like coal, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy [11] - Short-term attention is drawn to the power equipment sector and chemicals, as the market shifts towards high-certainty products [12] - The A-share investment focus is shifting towards strategic upstream industries and technology applications under the "anti-involution" theme [13]

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in financing balance, reaching 2.48 trillion yuan as of November 6, with an increase of over 100 billion yuan in the fourth quarter alone [2][3] - The rise in financing balance reflects strong market demand for financing, with brokers adjusting margin ratios and risk control measures to manage potential risks [2][3] Financing Balance Growth - The financing balance has increased by 626.4 billion yuan this year, nearing the total increase of 673.9 billion yuan during the 2014 bull market [3] - As of November 6, the average guarantee ratio in the margin trading market is 281.62%, significantly above the 130% warning line [3] Broker Responses - Brokers are raising the upper limits of margin trading business, with Huatai Securities announcing a limit of three times its net capital and China Merchants Securities increasing its limit from 150 billion yuan to 250 billion yuan [4] - Financing rates are becoming a competitive area among brokers, with rates generally around 5%, and some brokers offering rates below 4% for high-volume clients [4][5] Risk Management Strategies - Brokers are adjusting margin ratios as a core risk control measure, with some firms raising the margin ratio for certain securities to 100% [5] - Adjustments to the collateral ratios for high-performing margin trading securities have also been made, reflecting the strong demand for credit business and the tightening of limits [5]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 09 日 交易和基本面维度均维持震荡信号 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20251109 1. 当前市场观察 ❑ 择时观点上，本周继续维持震荡市的判断，核心原因有两点： 2）二是基本面维度有喜有忧。当前 A 股财务基本面和宏观基本面数据均呈 现中上游行业修复速度快于下游需求侧修复速度的情况。从三季报盈利增速 情况来看，维持明显改善趋势的行业包括有色金属、电子、通信、机械、电 新等中上游行业，而食品饮料、商贸零售、消费者服务等传统消费行业的改 善程度仍较为落后。从通胀数据来看，10 月 CPI 与 PPI 同比增速剪刀差为 2.30%，虽然较上月的 2.00%有所改善，但仍位于年内低位，尚未形成显著 改善。因此，基本面维度仅对 A 股形成结构性支撑，短期对整体权益市场走 势的影响偏中性，后续仍需观察下游需求侧数据改善的持续性。 2. 市场最新观点 ❑ 对中长期投资者来讲，当前市场估值水平偏高，中长期配置性价比已较前期 回落。具体来看，万得全 A 的 PE 和 PB 估值中位数的滚动 3 年分位数分别 为 94.21%和 97.66%，滚动 5 年分位数分别为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new opening of margin trading accounts in October decreased significantly compared to September, influenced by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as market fluctuations, but still remains the fourth highest this year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Margin Trading Account Openings - In October, 130,200 new margin trading accounts were opened, a decrease of 36.61% from 205,400 in September [1][2]. - The total number of margin trading accounts reached 15,398,800 by the end of October [4]. Margin Trading Balance - The margin trading balance increased from less than 1.9 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 2.49 trillion yuan by the end of October [1]. - As of November 6, the A-share margin balance was 2.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.46% of the A-share circulating market value [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The decrease in new account openings aligns with a similar trend in A-share new account openings, which fell by 21.36% from 2,939,000 in September to 2,309,900 in October [3][4]. - The fluctuation in new account openings indicates that market sentiment and investor entry pace are affecting both regular and credit trading [3]. Brokerages' Response - Despite the decline in new account openings, major brokerages like Huatai Securities and China Merchants Securities have raised their margin trading business limits to seize market opportunities [1][6]. - China Merchants Securities increased its margin trading limit from 150 billion yuan to 250 billion yuan, a significant adjustment reflecting rapid business growth [6]. - Huatai Securities also approved a similar increase, allowing its margin trading limit to be up to three times its net capital, estimated at approximately 286.5 billion yuan [6]. Investor Participation - The number of individual investors in the margin trading market is 7,764,800, while institutional investors number 50,300 [5][6]. - Among these, 454,898 investors participated in trading, and 1,846,448 had margin trading liabilities, with an average maintenance guarantee ratio of 281.62% [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase in commodities is driven by anticipation of a cyclical economic upturn in the coming year, with a unique convergence of economic cycles between China and the U.S. expected in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The price increase in commodities is primarily concentrated in coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, the new energy and photovoltaic industry chain, and memory storage [1][2] - The A-share market experienced a pullback after a recent rally, attributed to a technical correction and stabilization in the latter half of the week [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Historical patterns indicate that years ending in 6 or 1 are typically associated with rising Producer Price Index (PPI) in China, coinciding with significant political events [2] - The North American PCB shipment volume saw an increase in September, with a notable rise in memory prices and demand in the new energy sector [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Based on supply-side changes and free cash flow levels, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials are recommended for investment [1][2] - The financing net inflow reached 11.75 billion yuan in the first four trading days, indicating positive market sentiment [3] Group 4: Company Developments - Tesla's annual shareholder meeting highlighted advancements in AI and robotics, with a focus on the humanoid robot Optimus, which is projected to have a market capacity of billions of units [4] - The overall valuation level of A-shares increased, with notable gains in sectors like electric equipment and steel [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase in the market is driven by a preemptive move for the cyclical upturn expected next year, influenced by both China's five-year planning cycle and the U.S. four-year election cycle [1] Domestic Market Insights - Historically, years ending in 6 and 1 are associated with rising Producer Price Index (PPI) in China, primarily due to the implementation of five-year plans [1] - The cyclical nature of the Chinese economy suggests that 2026 will be a significant year, coinciding with a rare alignment of economic cycles between China and the U.S. [1] U.S. Market Insights - In the U.S., economic policies are closely tied to election cycles, with industrial metal prices typically peaking in midterm election years [1] Investment Opportunities - Current price increases are concentrated in sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, the renewable energy and photovoltaic industry chain, and memory storage [1] - Considering supply-side changes and free cash flow levels, sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials are recommended for cyclical investment [1]

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 11 月 8 日 港股红利收涨，资金主要流入港股 TMT ETF ETF 基金周度跟踪（1103-1107） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（11 月 3 日-11 月 7 日）股票 ETF 涨跌分化。其中，港股红利 ETF 和港股主题类 ETF（主要是央国企主题）涨幅靠前，规模以上基金平均上 涨 3.62%、3.51%。相反，港股医药生物 ETF 和 A 股医药生物 ETF 跌幅靠 前，规模以上基金分别平均下跌 3.37%、3.17%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金大幅流入港股 TMT ETF，全周资金净流入 90.65 亿元。相反，A 股大 盘 ETF 资金大幅净流出 122.64 亿元。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.c ...