Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on risk resolution and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5][8] - The overall tone of the conference is the most positive of the year, indicating a responsive approach to the industry's downward trend [14] - The policy shift from "stimulating demand" to "digesting inventory and optimizing supply" reflects a strategic change in real estate policy [14] Summary by Sections Economic Work Conference Insights - The conference held on December 11, 2025, updated its stance on real estate, focusing on stabilizing the market and managing risks effectively [5][8] - Key measures include controlling new land supply, revitalizing existing land and commercial properties, and promoting the construction of quality housing [5][8] Policy Evolution - The shift in policy from "stimulating demand" to "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" has been noted since April 2024 [14] - The emphasis on "risk prevention" suggests that 2026 may see intensified contradictions within the real estate sector [14] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" [6] - Notable companies include Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, all showing potential for strong performance [6][17] Recommendations - The report recommends several A-share and H-share companies for investment, indicating a focus on both development and property management sectors [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating that the task of "stabilizing the market" is ongoing and requires sustained efforts [2][3]. - Policies aimed at controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply will be further implemented in 2026, potentially supported by interest rate cuts [1][3]. - The report highlights the importance of product strength as a core competitive advantage for real estate companies to navigate through market cycles [1]. Summary by Sections Market Stability - The conference reiterates the importance of addressing issues in the real estate market as a key focus for risk mitigation in critical areas [2]. - The transition period for the real estate market is acknowledged, suggesting that stabilization will take time and require ongoing policy support [2]. Inventory Reduction - The conference introduces measures such as city-specific policies to control new supply and reduce inventory, encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [3]. - The concept of "inventory reduction" is highlighted as a significant focus, marking its first mention since 2016, and aligns with previous discussions on optimizing housing policies [3]. Housing Fund Reform - The report discusses the deepening of housing provident fund reforms, which aim to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and lower housing costs [4]. - Over 260 policies related to housing provident funds have been introduced since 2025, focusing on expanding coverage and easing usage conditions [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends real estate stocks with strong credit, location, and product quality, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [5]. - Companies with robust operational capabilities that manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments are also highlighted, including Longfor Group and New Town Holdings [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, are recommended [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages, like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life, are also suggested [5]. Key Company Recommendations - The report lists specific companies with target prices and investment ratings, including: - Wanwu Cloud (Buy, target price 32.29 HKD) [9] - Longfor Group (Buy, target price 15.21 HKD) [9] - Greentown China (Buy, target price 13.69 HKD) [9] - China Overseas Development (Buy, target price 19.08 HKD) [9] - Greentown Service (Buy, target price 6.56 HKD) [9] - Link REIT (Buy, target price 50.59 HKD) [9] - China Resources Land (Buy, target price 36.45 HKD) [9] - New Town Holdings (Buy, target price 18.90 HKD) [9] - China Jinmao (Increase, target price 1.81 HKD) [9]

Group 1 - Xiangyuan Holdings is facing overdue repayment issues related to financial products linked to its real estate projects, with the company and its chairman Yu Faxiang taking joint guarantee responsibility and communicating with relevant parties about the situation [1] - Three listed companies under Xiangyuan Holdings, including Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Haichang Ocean Park, and Jiaojian Co., have issued statements clarifying that they are not responsible for any repayment or guarantee obligations related to the overdue financial products [1] Group 2 - New城控股 reported a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 12.85 billion yuan from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.36% [2] - In November alone, the company achieved a commercial operating revenue of about 1.16 billion yuan, an increase of 8.96% compared to the same month last year [2] - The total contract sales amount for the company from January to November reached approximately 17.92 billion yuan, with a total sales area of about 2.35 million square meters [2] Group 3 - Shanghai Disneyland will implement a tiered refund policy for its theme park tickets starting January 12, 2026, allowing for different refund conditions based on the timing of the refund request [3] - Under the new policy, full refunds can be requested up to seven days before the visit, while a service fee will apply for refunds requested closer to the visit date [3] Group 4 - Swire Properties announced the launch of Qiantan Place in Shanghai, which includes two Grade A office buildings, with a total construction area of approximately 125,600 square meters [4] - The project is part of the expansion of the Qiantan Taikoo Li integrated development and is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [4] Group 5 - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism emphasizes the importance of developing smart tourism to enhance the experience and comfort of tourism products, aiming to enrich the supply of high-quality tourism products [5] - The focus is on improving the design and development of tourism products, promoting the renewal of tourist attractions, and cultivating leisure and specialty tourism products [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks in key areas, with a focus on city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve quality [2][4]. - The report highlights two major opportunities: the rise of "good housing" policies and the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate, particularly during a period of monetary easing [4][12]. - The report anticipates further supportive policies for both supply and demand in the real estate market, including potential reductions in mortgage rates and optimization of purchase restrictions [4][12]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report underscores the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies to promote stable economic growth and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][6]. - It suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will become more aggressive, with expectations for further interest rate cuts [4][8]. Real Estate Market - The report notes that the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market reflects a dual focus on halting price declines and addressing existing risks [4][12]. - It mentions the introduction of policies aimed at controlling supply, reducing inventory, and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [4][12]. - The report also discusses the need for reform in the housing provident fund system and the promotion of high-quality housing development [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the value reassessment of shopping centers and the new "good housing" sector, maintaining a "positive" rating for real estate and property management [4][12]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties [4][12]. - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao [4][12]. - Undervalued companies: Jianfa Co., China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments [4][12]. - Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Service, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [4][12]. - Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4][12].

Market Overview - On December 10, 2025, the equity market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.23%, the Shenzhen Composite Index up by 0.26%, the CSI 300 down by 0.14%, and the CSI 500 up by 0.49%. The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 2.53% [1]. Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector were: - Shilianhang: +10.07% - Vanke A: +10.06% - Nandu Property: +10.02% - Hainan Expressway: +9.97% - Caixin Development: +9.94% - The top five losers were: - Rongfeng Holdings: -3.78% - Sunshine Shares: -3.46% - Xinhua Lian: -1.69% - Lu Jia B Shares: -1.48% - Zhongtian Services: -1.30% [2]. Industry News - China Railway Real Estate won a residential land parcel in Shenzhen's Meilin area for 792 million yuan, with a premium rate of 65%. The land, covering 4,994.02 square meters, has a planned construction area of 18,550 square meters, including residential space of 15,380 square meters [3]. - Chengdu's land auction on December 10 raised 1.899 billion yuan from two residential land parcels in Jinjiang and Wenjiang districts, with a total area of 51,200 square meters and a planned construction area of 179,000 square meters. The main tower in the Jinjiang district is set to be a landmark building with a height of no less than 140 meters [4]. Company Announcements - New City Holdings announced the issuance of its third phase of medium-term notes for 2025, totaling 1.75 billion yuan with a 4.00% interest rate, maturing in five years [5]. - Chongqing Longfor Enterprise announced the second phase of its medium-term notes for 2023, amounting to 1.2 billion yuan with a 3.66% interest rate, maturing in three years [5].

Group 1 - New City Group completed the issuance of the third phase of medium-term notes for 2025, with a scale of 1.75 billion yuan and a term of 5 years at a coupon rate of 4% [2] - The company has issued a total of 3.65 billion yuan in medium-term notes this year, all backed by full guarantees from China Bond and rated AAA [2] - In the overseas market, New City Development issued $300 million in senior unsecured bonds in June, marking the first private real estate company to restart overseas capital market financing in three years [2] Group 2 - New City Group innovated financing paths by issuing a real estate asset-backed special plan based on the Shanghai Qingpu Wuyue Plaza, with a scale of 616 million yuan, setting records in the industry [3] - The company has established a mechanism for expansion, reserving a channel for public REITs, which lays a solid foundation for the long-term value release of held commercial assets [3] - The financing breakthroughs of New City Group reflect the continuous improvement of the financing environment for private real estate companies, driven by policy support and corporate efforts [3]

Group 1 - Real estate stocks experienced a significant afternoon rally, with Vanke A hitting the daily limit, Hainan Airport rising over 7%, Poly Development increasing by over 5%, and New Town Holdings and Huafa Group both up over 3% [1] - Real estate-related ETFs rose by more than 3% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - The current fundamentals of real estate companies are in a "bottoming" phase, with expectations for policy support and stabilization of the industry fundamentals to drive market trends in the near future [2] - The industry is expected to shift from "high leverage, high turnover" to a focus on "quality, service, and sustainability," with urban renewal expected to unlock potential in existing stock [2]

Core Insights - New City Holdings reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 1.448 billion yuan in November 2023, with a sales area of about 200,900 square meters [1] - Cumulatively, from January to November 2023, the company achieved a total contract sales amount of approximately 17.917 billion yuan and a total contract sales area of about 2.3516 million square meters [1] - In terms of commercial operations, the total revenue for November 2023 was approximately 1.155 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.96% [1] - For the period from January to November 2023, the cumulative total revenue from commercial operations was approximately 12.852 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.36% [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 1.155 billion yuan in November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.96% [1] - For the period from January to November 2025, the cumulative commercial operating revenue reached approximately 12.852 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.36% [1] Sales Performance - In November 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 1.448 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 200,900 square meters [1] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative contract sales amount was approximately 17.917 billion yuan, with a total contract sales area of around 2,351,600 square meters [1]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings successfully issued its third phase of medium-term notes for 2025, raising 1.75 billion yuan with a 4% interest rate, reflecting the improving financing environment for private real estate companies in China [1] Group 1: Financing and Ratings - The issuance of 1.75 billion yuan in medium-term notes is a significant financing breakthrough for New City Holdings, following previous issuances in August and September [1] - The company received a dual AAA rating from China Chengxin International for both the issuer and the bond, along with full guarantee from China Bond [1] - The positive financing environment is attributed to both policy support and the company's efforts, indicating a gradual return of private real estate firms to the capital market [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, New City Holdings reported a revenue of 34.371 billion yuan and a net profit of approximately 974 million yuan, maintaining a positive profit trend [1] - The company's operating cash flow was 1.026 billion yuan, showing consistent positive inflow [1] - The commercial operations generated approximately 10.511 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 10.82%, with a high rental occupancy rate of 97.7% across 176 leased properties [2] Group 3: Market Recognition and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley upgraded New City Holdings to "overweight" and raised the target price by 25% to 19.7 yuan, citing expected rental growth and positive market share expansion [2] - Guotai Junan Securities forecasted the company's EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.37, 0.51, and 0.61 yuan respectively, with a target price of 18.34 yuan based on a 0.65 PB valuation [3]