Market Performance - The New Energy Vehicle (NEV) index rose by 0.52% from December 29 to December 31, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.11% [1] - The best-performing sector within the automotive-related stocks was the Electric Motor III index, which increased by 4.21% [1] - Among battery-related sectors, the battery swapping concept index had a weekly increase of 0.28% [1] Company Stock Prices - Jianghuai Automobile closed at 49.5 CNY [4] - Seres closed at 120.96 CNY [4] - BYD closed at 97.72 CNY [4] - Great Wall Motors closed at 22.63 CNY [4] - Other notable companies include Changan Automobile at 11.86 CNY and BAIC Blue Valley at 8.03 CNY [4] Industry Data - In December 2025, Leap Motor delivered 60,423 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 14.08% but a year-on-year increase of 42.11% [37] - NIO delivered 48,135 vehicles, with a month-on-month increase of 32.69% and a year-on-year increase of 54.59% [37] - Li Auto delivered 44,246 vehicles, showing a month-on-month increase of 33.35% but a year-on-year decrease of 24.38% [37] - Other brands' performance included Aion with 40,066 vehicles and Xpeng with 37,508 vehicles [37] Material Prices - As of December 31, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 114,700 CNY/ton, up by 7,100 CNY/ton from December 26 [13] - Battery-grade cobalt sulfate averaged 93,000 CNY/ton, increasing by 500 CNY/ton [15] - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate was 27,050 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton [17] - Lithium iron phosphate remained stable at 45,100 CNY/ton [19] - The price of ternary precursor 811 was 111,500 CNY/ton, up by 1,000 CNY/ton [22] - The price of ternary materials 811 was 173,500 CNY/ton, increasing by 2,000 CNY/ton [25] - The price of dry separator film was stable at 0.42 CNY/sqm, while wet separator film increased by 0.03 CNY/sqm [28] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 180,000 CNY/ton [31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2026 is expected to boost the industry's outlook, particularly for passenger vehicles, heavy trucks, and buses, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [2][26]. - The heavy truck segment is anticipated to see a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [30]. - The bus segment is projected to maintain growth, with an estimated sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year [30]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [27]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The short-term outlook is positive due to the new subsidy policies, with expectations for a recovery in demand in Q1 2026. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD [2][26]. - The 2026 subsidy budget is projected at 125 billion yuan, which could drive an additional sales increase of 780,000 to 1.54 million units [15]. Heavy Trucks - The 2026 trade-in policy for heavy trucks has exceeded expectations, with subsidies remaining at previous levels. The anticipated sales volume for 2026 is optimistic, with a target of 800,000 to 850,000 units [30][19]. - Recommended companies in this segment include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30]. Buses - The bus segment's policy has also exceeded expectations, with a projected sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [30][18]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to see a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow significantly [27]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Hong Kong automotive stocks experienced a collective decline, with Great Wall Motors falling nearly 7% and NIO and Xpeng down over 4.2% [1] - The report from CICC suggests that the domestic automotive industry in mainland China will face certain challenges in demand due to ongoing policies, while overseas sales are expected to grow steadily [1] - Investment strategy emphasizes that auto parts are favored over complete vehicles, with a focus on opportunities arising from AI-related developments in robotics, intelligent driving, and data center liquid cooling [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that new policies are expected to support the passenger vehicle market, but domestic demand still faces challenges [2] - A study by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence predicts that global electric vehicle sales growth will reach its lowest level since the pandemic, with an expected increase of only 13% to 24 million units by 2026, significantly lower than the 22% growth forecast for 2025 [2] - The slowdown in the European market and rapid decline in the U.S. market are identified as new obstacles in the transition away from fuel vehicles [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong automotive stocks collectively declined, with Great Wall Motors falling nearly 7%, NIO and Xpeng down over 4.2%, and other companies like Chery, Leap Motor, and Geely dropping close to 4% [1] - A report from CICC indicates that by 2026, the domestic automotive industry in China will face certain challenges in internal demand, while overseas sales are expected to grow steadily. The investment strategy favors auto parts over complete vehicles, focusing on opportunities in AI-related sectors such as robotics, intelligent driving, and data center liquid cooling [1] - A separate report forecasts that global electric vehicle sales growth will reach its lowest level since the pandemic began in 2020, with an expected increase of only 13% to 24 million units by 2026, significantly lower than the 22% growth anticipated for 2025 due to a slowdown in the European market and a rapid decline in the U.S. market [1] Group 2 - The latest stock prices and changes for major automotive companies are as follows: Great Wall Motors at 14.090 (-6.81%), NIO at 39.440 (-4.55%), Xpeng at 76.950 (-4.23%), Chery at 29.040 (-3.84%), Leap Motor at 47.700 (-3.75%), Geely at 17.550 (-3.57%), Li Auto at 66.600 (-2.13%), BYD at 96.950 (-1.82%), and others showing minor declines [2]

Core Viewpoint - Great Wall Motors' stock price has experienced a decline of 2.03% as of January 5, 2025, with a market capitalization of 189.73 billion yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Great Wall Motors achieved a revenue of 153.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.96%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.20% to 8.64 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed a total of 34.70 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 8.95 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Great Wall Motors stood at 137,500, a decrease of 22.95% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder remained at 0 [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 197 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 27.42 million shares to 58.10 million shares [3].

消息面上，2026年汽车以旧换新补贴政策将延续。东方证券表示，2025年末由于部分省市出现补贴暂停 情况，消费者存在一定观望情绪，2025年11、12月乘用车零售销量均有所承压，2025年末冲量对2026年 的透支效应有限；2026年第一批625亿元支持消费品以旧换新资金已提前下达，预计1季度购车需求将有 望实现边际改善。 兴业证券发布研报称，与2025年政策相比，2026年政策最高补贴金额保持不变，补贴方式更为精准，增 加了车价作为限定条件，不同价位车型不再采用同样的补贴力度。2025年定额补贴撬动了大量低价车型 的销量，2026年补贴挂钩车价，在纯电动车领域中，高端车型补贴金额相对稳定，而低价电动车补贴金 额下降，或利好中高端汽车消费。 汽车股早盘走低，截至发稿，长城汽车（601633）(02333)跌6.42%，报14.15港元；小鹏汽车-W(09868) 跌4.04%，报77.1港元；理想汽车-W(02015)跌1.98%，报66.7港元。 ...

每经AI快讯，汽车股早盘走低。截至发稿，长城汽车(02333.HK)跌6.42%，报14.15港元；小鹏汽车- W(09868.HK)跌4.04%，报77.1港元；理想汽车-W(02015.HK)跌1.98%，报66.7港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles. The policy is expected to significantly boost the sales of mid-to-high-end passenger cars [6][9][18]. - The report maintains a judgment of "price increase and stable volume" for domestic passenger car demand in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry despite potential market fluctuations [18]. Summary by Sections 1. 2026 Vehicle Replacement Policy - The policy supports scrapping and replacing personal vehicles with subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 CNY) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 CNY) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [9][10]. - It also includes support for scrapping old commercial vehicles and promoting the electrification of city buses [9][10]. 2. Market Share Tracking in PHEV Segment - The report focuses on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as they adjust their market strategies and configurations [11]. - The analysis indicates significant variance in market shares due to increased supply and competitive strategies [11]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy aligns with expectations, and the report anticipates a rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end passenger car sales due to the subsidy structure [18]. - The report reflects on the previous year's strategy of "emerging from deflation," which has proven to be correct, and emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes and strategic adjustments by leading companies [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, and others for potential growth [19]. - Specific companies are categorized into "right-side" and "left-side" targets based on their operational performance and market positioning [19].

Core Insights - The 2025 Chinese automotive market showcased a "stronger getting stronger, increasing differentiation" trend amid deepening new energy transitions and intense industry competition [1] Group 1: Performance of Leading Companies - BYD achieved sales of 4.6024 million vehicles in 2025, with overseas sales surpassing 1 million for the first time, marking a 145% year-on-year increase in passenger and pickup truck sales [2] - BYD's pure electric vehicle sales reached 2.2567 million units, a nearly 28% increase, surpassing Tesla's 1.636 million units, making BYD the global leader in annual electric vehicle sales [2] - Geely also exceeded its annual sales target, achieving 3.0246 million units sold, a 39% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.6878 million units, up 90% [2] Group 2: Performance of Other Companies - Dongfeng Motor achieved its dual target of over 1 million new energy vehicles and 1.5 million total vehicle sales, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.04 million, a 21% increase [3] - Changan Automobile reported sales of 2.913 million vehicles, a growth of 8.5%, with new energy vehicle sales of 1.109 million, up 51% [5] - Chery Group sold 2.8064 million vehicles, a 7.8% increase, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 903,800 units, a 54.9% increase [5] Group 3: Underperformance of Certain Companies - China FAW achieved a total vehicle sales of 3.302 million, a 3.2% increase, but fell short of its target of 3.45 million [4] - Great Wall Motors reported sales of 1.3237 million vehicles, a 7.33% increase, but only achieved 33.09% of its 4 million target [5][6] - New energy vehicle sales for Great Wall reached 403,700 units, a 25.44% increase, but the overall performance was below expectations [5][6] Group 4: New Forces in the Market - Among new forces, Leap Motor, Xiaomi, and Xpeng all exceeded their annual sales targets, with Leap Motor achieving 596,600 units sold, marking a 119.3% target completion rate [7] - Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries surpassed 50,000 in December 2025, exceeding its annual target of 350,000 [7] - NIO and Li Auto, however, did not meet their targets, with NIO selling 326,000 units and Li Auto selling 406,300 units, both falling short of their respective goals [8][9]

尖子生就要比学赶超！ 编辑：梅梅 回顾2025年，自主五强销量均有增长。 比亚迪460万辆，吉利302万辆，长安超290万辆，奇瑞280万辆，长城132万辆——哪家的增长最有含金量？ 比亚迪继续稳坐NO.1宝座，拿下三冠王：中国汽车市场车企销量冠军、中国汽车市场品牌销量冠军、全球新能源车市场销量冠军。值得关注的是，比亚 迪2025年海外出口已超百万台，同比增长145%，直追"出口一哥"奇瑞。2025年，奇瑞出口销量为134.4万辆。 超额完成2025全年任务后，吉利已放出2026年目标：全年销量冲击345万辆，新能源目标为222万辆。过去两年，吉利集团都在年中宣布上调销量目标—— 有理由相信，345万辆只是吉利2026的保底？ 作为自主五强中的唯一央企，长安汽车2025销量创九年新高，总销量超290万辆，同比增长8.5%，连续6年实现同比正增长。长城汽车整体销量虽不及前 面四强，但132万辆仍创下历史新高。 头部的较量，犹如尖子生的"比学赶超"，没一个孬的！ 2026年，你觉得自主五强中，哪家更有后劲呢？ 尖子生就要比学赶超！ 编辑：梅梅 回顾2025年，自主五强销量均有增长。 比亚迪460万辆，吉利302万 ...