Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The shipping industry encompasses various segments including oil tankers, dry bulk, container shipping, LNG, and ro-ro vessels. The oil shipping segment experienced significant growth in Q4 2025, while LNG benefited from increased capacity. The ro-ro fleet saw a decline due to peak deliveries but an increase in volume, and the cruise business provided substantial earnings flexibility, expected to be more pronounced in Q1 2026 [2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Oil Shipping Price Surge**: Since August, oil shipping prices have surged due to increased cargo from Brazil and West Africa, influenced by US-India trade negotiations. Russian export volumes rose, but Western sanctions reduced transport efficiency. OPEC's production increase has been implemented, and India's large-scale purchases of non-Russian oil have shifted the market dynamics [2][6]. - **OPEC's Production Strategy**: OPEC's decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 does not hinder the growth logic of global compliant oil demand. Even with the delivery of approximately 30 VLCCs in the second half of next year, the market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance due to aging vessels and sanctions affecting transport efficiency [2][7]. - **Geopolitical Impacts**: The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war could significantly alter oil supply routes. A Russian victory may lead to a return of American oil to Asia, increasing VLCC long-haul demand. Conversely, a Western victory could internalize Russian oil supply, affecting logistics. Additionally, potential conflict between the US and Venezuela could either diminish or enhance Venezuelan oil production, impacting global oil prices [2][9]. - **Dry Bulk Market Dynamics**: The West Simandou iron ore project has limited impact on the VLOC market due to long-term contracts. The transportation of bauxite to the Far East is expected to drive growth in the dry bulk sector [2][10]. Current dry bulk market conditions indicate that prices are not expected to rise significantly in the next two years, as the market has not reached a tight supply-demand balance [2][11]. Additional Important Information - **Fleet Age and Newbuilding Plans**: The company has a detailed newbuilding plan that includes cruise ships, bulk carriers, ro-ro vessels, and LNG carriers, with total capital expenditure nearing 40 billion RMB. The company does not plan large-scale fleet updates but may consider updating some vessels [2][12]. - **Dual-Fuel Vessels**: The company is set to deliver the world's first methanol dual-fuel VLCC by the end of this month, indicating a shift towards more environmentally friendly shipping solutions [2][13]. - **Chartering and Market Conditions**: Currently, the proportion of time-chartered vessels in the cruise and dry bulk segments is low, with most operating in the spot market. The one-year time charter rates have surpassed $60,000, nearing a new high for 2025 [2][14][15]. - **Dividend and Buyback Plans**: The company plans to distribute dividends based on 40% of net profit twice a year. The buyback strategy will be evaluated based on market conditions and stock performance in 2026 [2][16].

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to enter a super cycle, driven by high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, with demand growth anticipated to boost profitability by 2026 [1] - Recent public and business demand has shown recovery, with ticket prices increasing year-on-year due to the release of suppressed demand from the summer season [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to resist "involution" competition, which may enhance revenue management and profitability in the aviation sector [1] Group 2: Oil Transportation - Oil transportation rates remain high, with the VLCC TCE maintaining around $120,000, driven by increased global oil production and limited effective supply due to aging tankers [2] - The outlook for oil transportation is positive, with expectations of demand growth exceeding forecasts, despite potential short-term impacts from seasonal fluctuations [2] - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on shadow fleets, which may further support the upward trend in oil transportation rates [2] Group 3: Airport Duty-Free - Shanghai Airport has announced a new duty-free contract model, shifting to a fixed fee plus actual sales commission, which may stabilize or enhance duty-free revenue [3] - The introduction of competition between domestic and international duty-free operators is expected to drive sales growth and improve pricing competitiveness [3] - The new contract structure and competitive environment are likely to incentivize duty-free operators, potentially leading to increased operational enthusiasm [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index shows a slight increase, with notable gains in key constituent stocks, reflecting a stable market environment amid industrial growth and potential policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 15, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.13%, with significant increases in stocks such as China Merchants Energy (up 4.77%) and Ping An Insurance (up 4.62%) [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund increased by 0.17%, with the latest price reported at 1.2 yuan [1]. Group 2: Industrial Growth - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, driven by advancements in the equipment manufacturing sector [1]. - The equipment manufacturing industry saw a robust growth of 7.7% in added value year-on-year, contributing 56.4% to the overall industrial growth [1]. Group 3: Investment Insights - According to AVIC Securities, the market may remain stable towards the end of the year, with a focus on the impact of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan on global liquidity [1]. - Recommendations include a balanced allocation between dividend and technology styles, with attention to industries that may experience marginal catalysts, anticipating a "spring rally" [1]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The Shanghai 180 Index consists of 180 securities selected for their large market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies in the Shanghai market [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.13% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities highlights that China Merchants Energy Shipping Company is a global leader in comprehensive shipping, with a high proportion of oil and bulk carriers, and has established a resilient shipping platform through mergers and acquisitions, reducing risks associated with single business cycles [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company has built a comprehensive shipping business structure focusing on oil and gas bulk carriers, which mitigates risks from strong cyclical operations [1] - The company primarily operates with self-owned vessels, accounting for 91.5% of its fleet [1] Group 2: Fleet and Market Position - As of June 2025, the company will have 52 VLCCs and 37 VLOCs (including 3 managed vessels), ranking first globally in both categories [1] - The company also operates 19 Capesize vessels, including 3 on lease [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market is in a favorable cycle, with the company's VLCCs benefiting from scale and operational advantages, leading to superior profit elasticity [1] - Demand is supported by an expansion cycle and tightening sanctions in Europe and the U.S., while supply-side constraints exist due to insufficient new VLCC orders (10.6% of current orders) to replace aging vessels (20% are 21 years or older) [1] - The dynamic scrapping of older vessels and absorption into the gray market may limit the net increase in compliant effective capacity, suggesting sustained market conditions [1] Group 4: Investment Rating - The company is expected to benefit from a resonance in oil and bulk shipping markets, leading to an initial coverage rating of "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - CMB is positioned as a global leader in comprehensive shipping, with a high proportion of oil and bulk carriers, reducing operational risks associated with single business cycles [1] Group 1: Business Structure and Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive shipping business structure through mergers and acquisitions, focusing on "oil and gas bulk carrier integration" [1] - The current fleet is primarily owned (91.5% ownership), with a total of 52 VLCCs and 37 VLOCs, ranking first globally, and 19 Capesize vessels [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Performance - The company is currently in a favorable market cycle, with VLCCs benefiting from scale and operational advantages, leading to superior profit elasticity [1] - Demand is supported by an expansion cycle and tightening sanctions from Europe and the U.S., while supply-side constraints exist due to insufficient new VLCC orders to replace aging vessels [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to experience a positive market trend due to the resonance of oil and bulk shipping, with a projected limited net increase in compliant effective capacity due to the aging fleet [1] - The company has been given an "overweight" rating based on the anticipated favorable market conditions [1]

Group 1 - On December 8, a total of 12 companies were investigated by institutions, with 10 of them being surveyed by funds, highlighting a significant interest in Hengtong Optic-Electric, which attracted 12 fund participants [1] - The surveyed companies included 2 from the main board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, 6 from the ChiNext board, and 2 from the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating a diverse representation across different market segments [1] - The companies under investigation spanned 7 industries, with the electronics, machinery equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors having the highest representation, each featuring 2 stocks [1] Group 2 - Among the surveyed companies, 2 had a total market capitalization exceeding 50 billion yuan, while 7 had a market capitalization below 10 billion yuan, including companies like Yingli Co., Ltd., Yalian Machinery, and Taili Technology [1] - In terms of market performance, 4 out of the surveyed stocks increased in value over the past 5 days, with the highest gains seen in Boin Special Welding (26.53%), Chaojie Co., Ltd. (17.69%), and Taili Technology (1.68%); conversely, 6 stocks experienced declines, with the largest drops in China Merchants Energy (-13.66%), Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (-9.67%), and Yingli Co., Ltd. (-2.72%) [1]

招商轮船 20251208 摘要 过去三个月运费维持高位，确认大周期。8 月至 11 月，VLC 和 CC 市场 运费缓慢爬升，跨洋货盘超预期增加，尤其是来自巴西、圭亚那、西非 和美湾的货盘，使得油品在途量创下新高。 制裁逐步见效，改善需求结构。美国和欧盟对俄罗斯石油公司的制裁， 以及对中国部分港口和贸易公司的制裁，改变原油流向，敏感油进口节 奏被打乱，影响全球原油供需平衡。 OPEC 增产对邮轮市场有一定积极影响，但效果滞后。中东炼厂检修推 迟至 11 月，延后增产效应。中国原油进口受能源法生效带来的库存增 加需求影响，地方炼厂增加黑市石油进口。 原油价格波动温和，北海布伦特基准价格涨幅有限，因全球供应过剩担 忧。OPEC+通过新的产能评估机制，暂停明年一季度生产，并下调出口 价格，应对非 OPEC 国家竞争。 大西洋货盘与船只供需紧张程度高于中东地区，中东长航线运费略高。 即使短期内出现扰动因素，整体供需格局未显著改变，预期未来一段时 间内运费将继续保持稳定增长态势。 今年（2025 年）邮轮市场表现出色，从 9 月 22 日到 10 月 30 日，我们对市 场进入大周期的概率从 60-70%上升到 80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the VLCC spot market rates from August to November, driven by increased transocean cargo volumes, stable sensitive oil demand, and OPEC+ production increases [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The recent oil and tanker freight market conditions indicate intensified global oil supply-demand dynamics, with Brent crude oil prices rising but constrained by oversupply concerns [1] - The Atlantic shipping space is tight, and spot freight rates in the Middle East are high, with VLCC charter estimates reaching a three-year high [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for the VLCC rate midpoint over the next two years, expecting the midpoint in 2026 to be higher than in 2025 [1] - On the supply side, there will be limited VLCC order deliveries in the coming years, and the pace of old ship retirements is accelerating, with effective supply expected to be insufficient before the second half of 2028 [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - Geopolitical influences persist, with increased crude oil imports from China and tight global refining capacity benefiting midstream shipping demand [1]

证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2025[063] 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于 9300 标准车位甲醇双燃料动力滚装船 新船交付的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 2025 年 12 月 6 日，招商局能源运输股份有限公司（下称"公司"） 向招商局船舶工业集团订造的 9300CEU（标准车位）甲醇双燃料动 力滚装船"深荣"轮在江苏省南通市完成接收。这是公司继"港荣" 轮后，第二艘采用甲醇双燃料动力系统的大型汽车滚装船。 继"港荣"轮投入运营后，"深荣"轮的交付营运标志着公司在 绿色滚装船领域实现了从"首舰突破"迈入"批量赋能"的关键跨越。 将进一步改善公司滚装船队的船型船龄结构，加快绿色船舶发展、加 速国际化业务布局增添"新引擎"。在中国车企加快出海步伐，新能 源汽车出口高速增长的情况下，为公司在细分市场进一步提升承运能 力和市场竞争力继续夯实基础，有利于提升公司汽车滚装船板块的核 心竞争力和持续盈利能力。 截止本公告发布之日，公司汽车滚装船板块拥有营运中的各类滚 装船共计 2 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08 points, with a change of +0.54% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 2051.612 billion yuan [1] Technical Analysis - A total of 318 A-shares experienced a death cross, where the 5-day moving average fell below the 10-day moving average [1] - Notable stocks with significant distance between their 5-day and 10-day moving averages include: - China Merchants Energy (601872) at -1.90% - Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618) at -1.51% - *ST Huake (600608) at -1.34% [1] Individual Stock Performance - China Merchants Energy (601872) saw a slight increase of 0.24% with a latest price of 8.34 yuan, which is 4.77% below its 10-day moving average [1] - Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618) decreased by 0.87%, with a latest price of 12.51 yuan, 2.54% below its 10-day moving average [1] - *ST Huake (600608) dropped by 3.85%, with a latest price of 4.00 yuan, 5.86% below its 10-day moving average [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002709) increased by 3.14%, with a latest price of 39.80 yuan, 1.16% below its 10-day moving average [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Wanxiang (603010) down by 0.55% [1] - Aok (300082) up by 1.16% [1] - *ST Kaixin (300899) up by 1.86% [1] Additional Stock Movements - The following stocks also showed notable movements: - Dalian Sanhe (600593) down by 0.73% [1] - Rui Mei Tong (600180) up by 0.71% [1] - Weir Pharmaceutical (603351) up by 1.23% [1] - Tianhua (300390) increased by 7.54% [2]