Core Viewpoint - The rare earth and precious metals sectors are experiencing significant price increases, driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly in the context of China's regulatory measures and global economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.88%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Rare Earth (600259) up 10.00%, Shengtun Mining (600711) up 9.01%, and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 7.57% [1]. - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) increased by 2.01%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 2.13 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, domestic rare earth supply regulation is expected to smooth out the issuance of quotas, while overseas supply is projected to continue growing as new projects come online [2]. - Demand for rare earths is anticipated to remain strong, particularly from the electric vehicle sector and robotics, further emphasizing the scarcity of resources and potentially driving prices higher [2]. Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Insights - Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, which supports the ongoing bullish trend in gold prices, especially during periods of interest rate cuts [2]. - Silver ETF holdings are expected to rise significantly by 2025, driven by its financial attributes, which will likely contribute to an increase in silver prices [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the CSI 300 ETF managed by CICC, which saw a slight increase of 0.23% to 1.289 yuan with a trading volume of 4.0761 million yuan as of the midday close on January 7 [1] - The major holdings of the CSI 300 ETF include companies like CATL, which decreased by 0.87%, Kweichow Moutai down by 0.13%, and Ping An Insurance up by 0.16% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI 300 Index return, with a total return of 28.81% since its inception on April 16, 2025, and a one-month return of 4.58% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by CICC Fund Management Co., with Liu Chongjin as the fund manager [1] - Notable stock movements include Zijin Mining down by 1.22%, NewEase down by 0.46%, and Changjiang Electric down by 0.40%, while Zhongji Xuchuang increased by 2.54% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026, with a recommendation from Goldman Sachs to overweight Chinese stocks, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][2] - The A500 index, representing core assets in China, has shown a strong performance with a 0.38% increase, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Wei股份 (up 12.26%) and 南大光电 (up 11.26%) [1] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in 2025 reached 27.44 million, a 9.75% increase from 2024, indicating growing investor interest [1] Group 2 - The A500 index is noted for its balanced representation of both traditional and emerging industries, with a focus on valuation, profitability, and dividends, suggesting an increasing demand for capital allocation towards it [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index as of December 31, 2025, include 宁德时代, 贵州茅台, and 中国平安, collectively accounting for 20.33% of the index [2] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by key sectors such as commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and robotics, alongside cyclical sectors like oil and non-ferrous metals [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the index rising by 1.08% and notable increases in individual stocks such as Rare Earth (up 7.25%) and Huayou Cobalt (up 6.25%) [1] - The non-ferrous ETF fund has also shown positive momentum, increasing by 1.01% and achieving five consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 2.11 yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal disagreements regarding future interest rate cuts are highlighted, with differing opinions on the appropriate path forward, particularly in light of upcoming employment data [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities notes that the gold market is driven by both cyclical and structural bull market factors, with expectations of continued demand for gold ETFs due to overseas interest rate cuts and concerns over the U.S. dollar's credit [2] - The silver market is expected to see a mid-term upward trend, supported by stable supply and growing industrial demand, particularly in photovoltaic and electrical electronics sectors [2] - The lithium industry is experiencing a downward trend in capacity growth following a peak in capital expenditure, but ongoing investment in global energy storage may improve supply-demand dynamics [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 51.65% of the index, with significant players including Zijin Mining and Ganfeng Lithium [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the lithium carbonate market in 2026 is expected to show a tight - balance pattern with strong supply and demand. The supply side will have a clear division in regions and resource types, with domestic growth led by salt - lake lithium extraction and overseas by ore - based lithium projects. The demand side will be driven by the booming energy - storage market and the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks, along with the stable growth of new - energy vehicle production and sales [2]. - From a technical perspective, given the previous sharp rise and overall bullish market sentiment, the possibility of a rapid and reverse decline in lithium carbonate prices is low. The current price is close to the first important high after the rebound following the decline of lithium carbonate futures, and it may take time to break through this level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Lithium Carbonate Trend Analysis: V - shaped Reversal - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a typical V - shaped trend, divided into a unilateral decline from January to June due to weak industry fundamentals and external policy shocks, and an upward - trending period after late June driven by policies and events [5]. - From January to June, the market was in a state of structural oversupply, with downstream new - energy vehicle growth slowing and energy - storage demand under - performing. Social inventory reached 96,000 tons by the end of April, the highest since 2021. After April, the market accelerated its decline due to the US tariff policy, and prices dropped below the break - even point [6]. - After late June, the market rebounded. In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted sentiment. From late July to September, supply - side events strengthened the expectation of supply contraction, and prices first rose and then fell. After the National Day, the booming energy - storage demand drove prices above 100,000 yuan/ton, and in early December, a new round of upward trend began [7]. Lithium Carbonate Supply Side Capacity and Production - In 2026, the global new lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to be about 30 - 330,000 tons LCE, with a clear division in regions and resource types. Domestic capacity growth will mainly come from salt - lake lithium extraction, while overseas growth will be mainly from ore - based lithium projects. The actual capacity release depends on the price of lithium carbonate [9]. - In 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production increased strongly, with a cumulative output of 871,200 tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The growth was mainly driven by spodumene - based lithium extraction. In 2026, the domestic supply structure is expected to be further optimized, with salt - lake lithium extraction as the key incremental source, but the actual supply release still faces uncertainties [11][12]. Import - At the end of 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports remained stable, with an annual total of about 2.5 million tons. Imports from Argentina increased by 56%, while those from Chile decreased by 17%. In 2026, the import pattern is expected to shift from South - American dominance to diversified supply, with the total import volume expected to be between 2 - 2.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slow [14]. Inventory - Since August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate inventory has been continuously decreasing. In 2026, the market is expected to show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with a tight balance", and the inventory center is expected to move down further and may show seasonal fluctuations [16]. Demand Side Energy Storage - From January to October 2025, the domestic energy - storage winning - bid capacity reached 148GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39%. In 2026, the energy - storage cell shipment is expected to reach 850GWh, and the annual demand for lithium carbonate in this field is expected to increase by more than 162,000 tons LCE. The global energy - storage demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30% - 40% in 2026, with China contributing more than 40% [19]. New - energy Vehicles - From January to October 2025, China's new - energy vehicle market grew strongly, with production and sales increasing by more than 30% year - on - year, accounting for 46.7% of the total new - vehicle sales. Exports reached 2.65 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 54%. In 2026, new - energy vehicle production and sales are expected to continue to grow, driving up the demand for lithium carbonate [22][23]. New - energy Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the new - energy heavy - truck market in China grew strongly, with cumulative sales of 1.0423 million vehicles in the first 11 months, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In 2026, the market is expected to enter a stable development stage at a high level, and the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks is expected to exceed 30%, even reaching 35% - 40%, which will support the demand for lithium carbonate [24]. Cost Side - As of December 29, the forward spot price of Australian spodumene (5.5% - 6%) was $1680/ton, and the price of lithium - mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) was 1850 yuan/ton, with monthly increases of over 45%. The weighted cost of lithium carbonate is about 82,000 yuan/ton, which further strengthens the bottom support [28][29]. Summary - The environmental rectification and shutdown of Jiangxi's mica mines in 2025 was the key turning point for the lithium carbonate market from oversupply to tight balance. In 2026, the core contradiction in domestic supply lies in the resumption rhythm and intensity of lithium - mica mines in Jiangxi. Meanwhile, the explosive growth of energy - storage demand requires close tracking of policy implementation and actual demand fulfillment [3][30]. - Historically, the probability of price increases in the second half of the year is higher than in the first half. However, the market may show two scenarios in 2026, especially in the first half: either range - bound at the current high level or form a double - top pattern and then enter an adjustment phase. The depth and timing of subsequent corrections depend on the resumption progress of leading manufacturers and the actual fulfillment of energy - storage demand [3][30].

恒生指数低开0.41%，恒生科技指数跌0.28%。盘面上，贵金属板块强势，紫金矿业涨超1%；半导体概 念活跃，华虹半导体涨近3%；科网股下挫，阿里巴巴跌超2%。 关于港股后市 银河证券表示，12月人工智能板块维持震荡走势，小幅微跌，成交量萎缩，12月受到国内外多重因素影 响，市场整体呈现出一定分歧，以短期内题材交易机会为主导，该行认为市场目前对日本央行加息、美 联储降息预期已经充分演绎，当前仍然在政策、业绩披露空窗期，资金仍然相对集中在业绩有望持续兑 现的AI硬件如光模块、PCB等领域，科技板块内部呈现分化结构，当然该行也看到部分AI应用公司三季 报业绩出现边际好转，当前节点该行仍然建议左侧布局人工智能板块中有业绩支撑细分领域及龙头公 司。 广发证券认为，本轮港股资产上涨具备基本面支撑，由于较A股更少的传统经济板块，自2024年下半年 开始，在内外需共同企稳、宏观政策发力托底的背景下，港股盈利已经出现结构性修复迹象，只是阶段 性被外卖补贴战打破。中美战略性关键科技领域中，绝大部分核心公司在港股有上市。高端制造业、科 技的成长正从"单点突破"迈向"多点爆破"。映射至资本市场，港股正从传统的顺经济周期，逐步转向A ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The three-year fixed deposit product with an interest rate of 2.2% was officially removed on January 5, with all deposit rates decreasing by 20 basis points [1] - Multiple small and medium-sized banks, including Wuding Xingfu Village Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have recently announced adjustments to their deposit rates, indicating a trend of flexible management based on individual bank conditions [1] Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD rose again on January 6, remaining above the 7 yuan mark, continuing a trend of appreciation that has lasted nearly nine months [1] - Analysts believe that the strengthening of the RMB is beneficial for foreign capital inflow, improving liquidity and risk appetite in the A-share market, with three asset categories highlighted for investment: aviation, paper manufacturing, and high-growth sectors like computing and electronics [1] Group 3: Company Performance Forecasts - Eleven companies are expected to achieve their highest net profits in the past decade by 2025, with Zijin Mining and Luxshare Precision leading with lower limits of 51 billion yuan and over 16.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to be strong due to supply constraints and structural demand growth, with companies like China Uranium Industry also anticipated to reach peak profits [2] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Price Surge - Lithium carbonate prices have surged significantly, with a 7.74% increase on January 5 and an 8.99% increase on January 6, reaching 137,900 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and rising demand [3] - The price increase is linked to uncertainties in lithium supply and growing demand for energy storage, with market analysts suggesting limited downside potential for lithium prices [3] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Yunnan Metallurgical Group is publicly offering a 3.18% stake in Cheng Tai Insurance for a base price of 184 million yuan, marking the third attempt to transfer this stake [6] - Four companies, including Suzhou Shangshun Technology, have initiated listing counseling as of January 6, indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [6] Group 6: Stock Market Movements - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.99%, driven by AI-related demand, while the S&P 500 and Dow reached historical highs [17] - Commodity prices, particularly metals, have seen significant increases, with copper and nickel reaching record highs, reflecting strong market conditions [17]

昨日（1月6日）有色金属板块领涨两市，紫金矿业盘中总市值首次站上1万亿元大关，洛阳钼业创历史 新高，中国铝业再创15年新高，有色金属板块热门ETF——有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格猛拉 4.21%续创历史新高！ ETF放量突破上市高点，或为资金买点信号！深交所数据显示，有色ETF华宝（159876）近5日连续获 资金净流入，合计金额9749万元，拉长时间来看，近20日狂揽1.26亿元，伴随火热的行情，资金火速进 场布局！ 值得关注的是，截至1月6日，有色ETF华宝（159876）最新规模9.56亿元，再创历史新高！ 消息面上，周二，美联储理事米兰在最新的讲话中表示，预计后续经济数据趋势可能支持美联储进一步 降息，美联储今年应降息超过100个基点。 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储还处于降息通道，有色金属价格仍有上涨动力。东方证券指出，美联储 降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮降息周期 下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 细分方向来看，亦有密集利好分化： 1、铝方面，中信建投证券指出，莫桑比克Mozal铝厂将于2026年3月15日转入无限期停产的消 ...

今日三大指数集体低开，恒指开盘跌0.41%，报26601.83点，恒科指跌0.28%，国企指数跌0.3%。盘面 上，科网股涨跌不一，阿里巴巴跌超2%，百度、哔哩哔哩跌超1%，网易涨超0.5%；芯片股高开，华虹 半导体涨超2%；板块延续涨势，涨超1%；汽车股部分下跌，蔚来跌超2%。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技指数 | 5809.01 | -0.28% | | 800700 | | | | 国企指数 | 9216.74 | -0.30% | | 800100 | | | | 恒生指数 | 26601.83 | -0.41% | | 800000 | | | 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 美股周二大幅上升，大市气氛维持良好，道指及指数再创历史新高，三大指数均录得升幅收市。美元走 势向好，美国十年期债息回升至4.17厘水平，金价 ...

>>>>> ETF早知道 >>>>> ETF早知道 ETFEFR道 WP bao <<<< >>>>> HIFT 2026 41 目早知道 Jan ETF早知演 <<<< 市场温度计 >>>>> ETFOF CE 中长期信号 · 投资看温度 --- 75% --- 75% 75% -- + 25% -- + 25% -- > 25% ETF 早知道 <<<< 0.75% 1.5% → → 1.4% ↑ 上证指数 深证成指 创业板指 注:温度计水银条由对应指数的近十年市盈率分位数表示,总值为100%。数据来源:iFind,截至 2026.1.6,上证指数、深证成指、创业板指的近十年市盈率分位数分别为99.34%、90.41%、46.48% ETFEFAX e 0 2 6 板块热力图 ETFEFRi <<<< 短期轮动走向·观九宫热力值 +4.26% +3.12% +3.73% 基础化工 有色金庫 非银金融 +3.08% +2.89% +0.50% 综合 食品饮料 国防军工 -0.77% +0.48% +0.20% 通信 银行 EZ 相关 (4) 数据来源:iFind,截至2026.1.6,以申万一级行业区分,分 ...