P.3 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 投资者应注意，在法律许可的情况下，本公司及其本公司的关联机构可能会持有本报告中涉及的公司所发行的证券并进行 交易，也可能为这些公司正在提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。 本报告版权归"国盛证券有限责任公司"所有。未经事先本公司书面授权，任何机构或个人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发 布、复制。任何机构或个人如引用、刊发本报告，需注明出处为"国盛证券研究所"，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的删节 或修改。 分析师声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|-------------|----------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 投资建议的评级标准 评级标准为报告发布日后的 6 个月内公司股价（或行业 | | 评级 买入 | 说明 相对同期基准指数涨幅在 15% 以上 | | 指数）相对同期基准 ...

2024 年 04 月 08 日 新集能源(601918.SH) 24Q1 煤炭业务产销同比微降，吨煤毛利表现亮眼：据公司公告， 1）产销量方面：24Q1 公司原煤产量 501.43 万吨，同比-9.41%/ 环比+4.51%；商品煤产量 469.44 万吨，同比-1.53%/环比+4.73%； 商品煤销量 452.39 万吨，同比-5.44%/环比+1.58%。2）价格方面： 24Q1 公司商品煤单位售价 575 元/吨，同比+7.33%/环比+0.27%。 3）成本方面：24Q1 公司商品煤单位成本 347 元/吨，同比+7.06%/ 环比-15.35%。4）毛利方面：24Q1 公司商品煤单位毛利 228 元/ 吨，同比+7.73%/环比+39.25%。综合来看，24Q1 吨煤毛利亮眼得 益于吨煤价格的提升，主要贡献或来自两方面：一是公司吨煤售 价根据安徽省发改委所确定的长协价格参考执行，其价格波动明 显小于市场价格波动。同时，公司作为煤炭央企，需切实发挥保 供主力军作用，据 Wind 投资者平台回复，2022 年上半年长协煤 占比约 91%，2023 年前三季度长协煤占比约 85%，2024 年长协煤 ...

证券代码:601918 证券简称:新集能源 编号:2024-016 中煤新集能源股份有限公司 2024 年第一季度经营数据公告 经营指标 单位 2024 年 1-3 月累计 上年同期 同比增 减(%) 原煤产量 万吨 501.43 553.54 -9.41 商品煤产量 万吨 469.44 476.75 -1.53 商品煤销量 万吨 452.39 478.41 -5.44 其中：对外销量 万吨 350.35 382.92 -8.51 煤炭主营销售收入 万元 260,091.28 256,274.88 1.49 其中：对外销售收入 万元 201,339.02 206,021.02 -2.27 煤炭主营销售成本 万元 156,762.58 154,845.18 1.24 煤炭销售毛利 万元 103,328.70 101,429.69 1.87 一、煤炭业务 公司电力业务全部在安徽地区，全部为火电。 本公告经营数据未经审计，请投资者注意投资风险并审慎使用。 特此公告。 中煤新集能源股份有限公司董事会 2024 年 4 月 9 日 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [18]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable performance in coal and electricity operations, with a focus on transforming into a new energy base in northern Anhui [1]. - The company plans to build a new integrated coal and electricity base, which is expected to enhance coal production capacity and power generation installations [16]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 23.4 billion, 23.6 billion, and 31.1 billion CNY respectively, with an EPS of 0.90, 0.91, and 1.20 CNY [16]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 12,845 million CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a slight decline to 12,716 million CNY, followed by 12,531 million CNY in 2025, and a significant increase to 14,735 million CNY in 2026 [2][17]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2023 is 2,109 million CNY, with a growth of 1.6% year-on-year. The projections for 2024 and 2025 are 2,336 million CNY and 2,360 million CNY respectively, with a notable increase to 3,114 million CNY in 2026 [2][17]. - **EPS**: The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.81 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.90 CNY in 2024, 0.91 CNY in 2025, and reaching 1.20 CNY in 2026 [2][17]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is projected to improve from 39.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [2][17]. - **Return on Equity**: The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease slightly from 15.6% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2025, before recovering to 16.4% in 2026 [2][17]. Business Segment Analysis - **Coal Business**: The coal production and sales volume for 2023 were 1,937 million tons and 1,969 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 8.7%. The average selling price for coal was 551 CNY per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [16]. - **Electricity Generation**: The company generated 103.93 billion kWh of electricity in 2023, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year. However, the fourth quarter saw a recovery in sales volume, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [16]. Valuation - The company is valued based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10-12 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of 9.02 to 10.82 CNY per share [16].

新集能源（601918.SH） 拥有华东区位优势，煤电一体化进程持续推进 事件：新集能源发布 2023 年年度报告：2023 年公司实现营业收入 128.45 亿元，同比增长 7.01%，归母净利润为 21.09 亿元，同比增长 1.57%， 扣非后的归母净利润为 20.53亿元，同比减少 1.47%。基本每股收益为 0.81 元，同比增长 1.50%，加权平均净资产收益率为 16.84%，同比减少 2.8pct。 点评： 发电业务方面火电成本控制得当，盈利改善。根据公司 2023 年报，1）产销 量：2023 年公司火电发电量为 103.93 亿千瓦时（同比-2.67%），火电上网 电量为 98.72 亿千瓦时（同比-2.78%）。2）售价：售电价为 409.79 元/兆瓦 时（同比+0.40%）。3）成本与盈利：单位售电成本为 317.16 元/兆瓦时 （-0.42%），单位售电毛利为 93.70 元/兆瓦时（同比+4.44%）。 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 作者 邮箱：yiw@cgws.com 相关研究 公司费率同比减少，降本增效初有成效。根据公司 2023 年报，2023 年公司 销售费用率为 0.45 ...

证券代码：601918 证券简称：新集能源 中煤新集能源股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-投关-002 投资者关系 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 业绩说明会 活动类别 新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场调研 □电话会议 参与单位名 社会公众股东 称及人员 时间 2024 年 3 月 21 日（星期四）下午 15:00-17:00 现场：上海证券交易所上证路演中心 地点 线上：http://roadshow.sseinfo.com 上市公司接 董事长王志根先生；总会计师王雪萍先生；副总经理徐进先生，独立董事 待人员姓名 黄国良先生；董事会秘书戴斐先生及部分职能部门负责人。 投资者关系活动主要内容摘要 新集能源 2023 年度业绩暨现金分红说明会 2023年，公司生产原煤 2139.99万吨、生产商品煤 1936.91万吨，销售商品煤 1968.61 万吨；2023 年，公司累计发电 104.79 亿度（含瓦斯发电），上网电量 98.95 亿度，其中 利辛电厂发电103.93 亿度，上网售电量98.72 亿度。 2023 年，公司实现营业收入 128.45 亿元，实现利润总额 34. ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------|------------------------------------| | 投资建议评级标准 | | 评级 \n推荐 | 说明 \n相对基准指数涨幅 15% 以上 | | 以报告发布日后的 12 个月内公司股价（或行业 | | 谨慎推荐 | 相对基准指数涨幅 5%～15% 之间 | | 指数）相对同期基准指数的涨跌幅为基准。其 | 公司评级 | 中性 | 相对基准指数涨幅 -5%～5% 之间 | | 中： A 股以沪深 300 指数为基准；新三板以三 板成指或三板做市指数为基准；港股以恒生指 | | 回避 | 相对基准指数跌幅 5% 以上 | | 数为基准；美股以纳斯达克综合指数或标普 | | 推荐 | 相对基准指数涨幅 5% 以上 | | 500 指数为基准。 | 行业评级 | 中性 | 相对基准指数涨幅-5%～5% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of March 21, 2024 [15][19]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 12.84 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.11 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from its high long-term contract coal ratio and improved coal quality, which mitigates the impact of market coal price fluctuations [5][19]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in power generation capacity, with a projected output of 11.5 billion kWh in 2024, reflecting a commitment to expanding its integrated coal and power operations [7][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.81 yuan, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of 16.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous year [3][20]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 1.9% year-on-year [4]. Coal Business - The company produced 19.37 million tons of commercial coal in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with sales reaching 19.69 million tons, up 8.7% year-on-year [5]. - The average selling price of coal remained stable at 585 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year increase despite a general market price decline [5]. - The total cost per ton of coal rose to 308 yuan, a 12.1% increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising labor and electricity costs [5]. Power Generation Business - The company generated 10.39 billion kWh of electricity in 2023, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.4109 yuan per kWh, down 0.3% year-on-year [7]. - The report projects a significant increase in power generation capacity, with plans for new power plants that will enhance the company's self-sufficiency in coal supply [19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.35 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 12% year-on-year growth, with EPS projected to rise to 0.91 yuan [20]. - The anticipated increase in integrated operations and stable coal quality is expected to enhance profitability and reduce earnings volatility [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price suggesting a potential upside of 15% or more relative to the benchmark index within 6 months [13][10] Core Views - The company's coal-power integration strategy has demonstrated resilience, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 12.84 billion, a 7.01% YoY increase, and net profit of RMB 2.109 billion, up 1.57% YoY [8] - The company's coal business achieved revenue of RMB 10.85 billion, up 8.96% YoY, with gross profit of RMB 3.95 billion, a 1.94% increase [28] - The power segment generated revenue of RMB 4.06 billion, down 3.03% YoY, with gross profit of RMB 920 million, a 2.5% decrease [9] Financial Performance - 2023 coal production was 21.4 million tons, down 3.76% YoY, while commercial coal sales reached 19.69 million tons, up 8.7% YoY [9] - The company's comprehensive coal price was RMB 551/ton, up 0.2% YoY, with a cost of RMB 351/ton, up 5% YoY, resulting in a gross margin of RMB 200/ton, down 7.1% [9] - Power generation in 2023 was 10.48 billion kWh, down 2.6% YoY, with an average grid price of RMB 0.4098/kWh, up 0.4% [9] Growth Prospects - The company has a total coal-power installed capacity of 3,290MW, with an equity capacity of 1,732MW, and is constructing the second phase of the Lixin Power Plant with 1,320MW capacity [10] - Future projects include Shangrao, Chuzhou, and Liuan power plants, totaling 7,250MW in planned capacity [10] - The company plans to distribute RMB 389 million in cash dividends for 2023, representing a payout ratio of 18.4% [10] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 12.845 billion in 2023 to RMB 17.001 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.8% [12] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 2.109 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.082 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.5% [12] - The P/E ratio is forecast to decline from 9.8x in 2023 to 6.7x in 2026, while the P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 1.5x to 1.0x over the same period [12] Valuation - The company's current market capitalization is RMB 20.698 billion, with a share price of RMB 7.99 as of March 20, 2024 [13] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 6.6x in 2023 to 5.3x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [23]

2. 境外资产情况 升和量的合理增长，加大宏观调控力度，着力扩大内需、优化结构、提振信心、防范化解风险， 我国经济回升向好，国内生产总值超过 126 万亿元，增长 5.2%，高质量发展扎实推进，现代化产 业体系建设取得重要进展，科技创新实现新的突破，改革开放向纵深推进，安全发展基础巩固夯 实，民生保障有力有效，全面建设社会主义现代化国家迈出坚实步伐。 2024 年，全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届二中全会精神，按照中央经济工作会议部署，经 济增长预期目标为 5%左右，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，加快 构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，全面深化改革开放，推动高水平科技自立自强，加大宏 观调控力度，统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革，统筹新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，统筹高 质量发展和高水平安全，切实增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回 升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，增进民生福祉，保持社会稳定， 以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业。 2.行业竞争格局 从煤炭行业来看，近年来，在应对气候变化和地缘博弈的大背景下，全球能源安全面临持续 ...