Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices for thermal and coking coal are expected to continue rising due to the "anti-involution" measures and capacity checks in the industry [2][6][10]. Group 1: Industry Hot Events Review - Key events in July include the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law, which emphasizes the dual focus on development and protection, and the initiation of capacity checks in major coal-producing provinces [5][7]. - The National Energy Administration has begun a special inspection of coal mines in key provinces to ensure production does not exceed announced capacities [7][14]. - The coal industry is experiencing a shift towards higher-end, intelligent production methods, as indicated by recent inspections and government encouragement for transformation [9][10]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, while import growth is also declining, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][26]. - The report notes that the number of coal mines is decreasing, with a significant concentration of production capacity in larger, more advanced mines [12][39]. - The average cost of coal production has shown significant variation among different mining companies, impacting overall pricing strategies [12][10]. Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - There is a marginal improvement in demand for thermal coal, driven by recovery in steel profits, which is expected to support coking coal prices [6][26]. - The report provides a supply-demand balance table, indicating that coal consumption is projected to grow slightly, while production is expected to stabilize [27][39]. Group 4: Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the seasonal adjustments in national railway freight rates could lead to increased volatility in coal prices, with potential for rapid price increases during peak demand seasons [15][17]. - The low yield of ten-year government bonds enhances the attractiveness of coal companies with high dividend yields, suggesting a favorable investment environment [19][20]. - The anticipated policy changes in Indonesia regarding coal production quotas are expected to stabilize coal prices by aligning actual production with target outputs [21][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [3][11]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to stabilize thermal coal prices, while coking coal is anticipated to contribute to elastic growth due to recent price adjustments and market dynamics [2][6]. - The coal supply-demand situation has been generally relaxed this year, with prices declining and some coal mines exceeding their announced production capacities, prompting regulatory actions to ensure orderly supply [1][2]. - The recent price increases in the coking market, following a series of price hikes, indicate a recovery in market sentiment and potential for further price rebounds in the future [6][7]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal has been under pressure, with the Qinhuangdao Shanxi Q5500 mixed coal price dropping to 610 RMB/ton in the first half of 2025, leading to some coal mines operating at a loss [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate production and stabilize prices, with expectations that the second quarter of 2025 may represent a bottom for the coal industry [2][6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have seen significant declines, with prices dropping from 1950 RMB/ton in October 2024 to 1250 RMB/ton by June 2025, marking an eight-year low [6]. - Recent price increases in the coking market, including a 50 RMB/ton rise following the first round of price hikes, suggest a recovery in market conditions and potential for further growth [6][7]. Key Companies to Watch - For thermal coal, recommended companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, Xinji Energy, and Jinkong Coal Industry [6]. - For coking coal, recommended companies include Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingdingshan Coal, and Huaibei Mining [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a bullish sentiment for thermal coal prices during the peak summer season, while also projecting a rebound in coking coal prices due to tightening supply and strong demand [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that thermal coal prices have increased, with specific prices reported for different grades at Qinhuangdao port, showing a week-on-week rise of 12, 13, and 10 CNY per ton for Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades respectively [1]. - Supply constraints are noted due to reduced daily inflow to the Bohai Rim ports and production limitations in open-pit mines caused by rainfall in northern regions [1]. - The report emphasizes that during the "peak summer" period, thermal coal prices are expected to continue rising, while coking coal prices are also projected to rebound due to high steel mill profits and stable iron output [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The National Energy Administration has initiated inspections of coal production in key provinces to ensure compliance with production capacities [7]. - The Daqin Railway is reported to be transporting an average of 1.05 million tons of coal daily to meet summer electricity demand [7]. Thermal and Coking Coal Prices - Thermal coal prices have shown an upward trend, with specific increases reported for various grades across different regions [8]. - Coking coal prices have also increased, with notable price rises in Shanxi and stable prices in other regions [11]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have risen by 1.23 USD per barrel, reflecting a 1.8% increase [14]. Bohai Rim Port Inventory - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, while the outflow has increased, leading to a significant drop in coal inventory [18]. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates have increased, with an average of 35.51 CNY per ton reported [25]. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector during price corrections [11][12] - The supply side is tightening due to a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is increasing, particularly in inland provinces [11][12] - The coal price has established a new support level, and high-quality coal companies are characterized by strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of August 2, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 655 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][28] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 CNY/ton [30] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 90.9%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week [11][45] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 44.4 thousand tons/day (+13.05%) [11][46] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rose by 1.0 thousand tons/day (+0.45%) [11][46] Inventory Situation - As of July 31, coal inventory in inland provinces decreased by 1.20% week-on-week, while daily consumption increased [46] - Coastal provinces saw a 1.08% decrease in coal inventory week-on-week [46] Company Performance - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others [12][13]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The coal prices have shown a continuous upward trend due to increased daily consumption and reduced inventory as the peak season approaches [5] - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 5.524 million tons, an increase of 1.096 million tons, while the coal arrival volume was 6.376 million tons, up by 1.31 million tons year-on-year [5] - The coal supply elasticity is limited due to strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing mining difficulties, leading to a potential new normal of underproduction [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index dropped by 4.67%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.92 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the coal index has decreased by 10.35%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 3.05% [15] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 1, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 663 CNY/ton, up by 1.5% week-on-week [3][30] - The average daily output of 462 sample mines was 5.474 million tons, down by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.2 Annual Long-term Price - The long-term price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [28] 2.3 Spot Prices - The domestic price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for Inner Mongolia's 5500K coal rose by 25.5 CNY/ton, while Shanxi's price increased by 32 CNY/ton [30] 2.4 Supply and Demand 2.4.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 80.2%, down by 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [40] - The average daily output of thermal coal from 462 sample mines decreased by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.4.2 Demand - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased slightly to 87.7 million tons, up by 0.63% week-on-week [46] - The inventory of these power plants decreased to 1,394.3 million tons, down by 0.26% week-on-week [46] 2.4.3 Inventory Management - The total inventory index for thermal coal was 192 points, down by 1.8% week-on-week [56] - The inventory at Qinhuangdao port dropped significantly to 535 million tons, down by 8.23% week-on-week [66] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remained stable at 1,680 CNY/ton [80] - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines was 77.7 million tons [80] 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for Shanxi's coking coal increased by 30 CNY/ton week-on-week, while prices in Henan and Anhui remained unchanged [81]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 2.24% on July 31, with Huabei Mining leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11009.77, down 1.73% [1] - Major coal mining stocks showed significant declines, with Huabei Mining down 4.95% and other notable declines including Lu'an Environmental Energy down 4.85% and Pingmei Shenma down 4.57% [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 863 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 624 million yuan [1] - The table of fund flows indicates that China Shennong had a net inflow of 72.29 million yuan from main funds, while other companies like Electric Power Energy and SuNeng had mixed results in fund flows [2] - The overall trend shows that while main funds are withdrawing, retail investors are actively buying into certain stocks within the coal mining sector [2]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research in the past 30 days include Ice Wheel Environment, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Boshi Jie, Yapu Co., and Huasheng Lithium Battery [13][14] - In the last five days, the most researched companies were Huasheng Lithium Battery, Weili Transmission, Hudian Co., Zhejiang Fu Holdings, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [13][15] - Among the top twenty companies researched in the past 30 days, seven had ten or more rating agencies, including Yanjing Beer, Hudian Co., Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, BOE Technology Group, Hualing Steel, and Northern Rare Earth [13][14] - Yanjing Beer, Hudian Co., and BOE Technology Group are expected to see significant growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 compared to 2023 [13][14] Group 2: Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, no companies reported significant shareholder increase announcements [16] - From January 1 to July 25, 2025, a total of 241 companies announced shareholder increases, with 63 having ten or more rating agencies [17] - Among these, 21 companies had an average proposed increase amount exceeding 1% of the latest market value, including Xianhe Co., Hubei Yihua, Xinji Energy, and Sailun Tire [17][18] Group 3: A-Share Buyback Situation - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, a total of 101 companies announced buyback progress, with 18 having ten or more rating agencies [21] - Four companies, including Jian Sheng Group, Mousse Co., Jinfa Technology, and Jinzai Food, had an average expected buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value on the announcement date [21][22] - From January 1 to July 25, 2025, 1,605 companies announced buyback progress, with 348 having ten or more rating agencies [23] - Among these, 97 companies had a significant buyback ratio, with an average expected buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value on the announcement date [23][24]

从中证沪港深互联互通中小综合能源指数持仓样本的行业来看，煤炭占比37.69%、焦炭占比19.45%、 油气开采占比12.76%、燃油炼制占比12.13%、油田服务占比8.87%、油气流通及其他占比5.85%、天然 气加工占比3.25%。 资料显示，该指数系列样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五 的下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一 个定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对该指数系列样本进行临时调整。当样本退市 时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处 理。当中证沪港深500指数、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合指数和中证沪港深互联互通综合指数样本发 生变动时，将进行相应调整。 据了解，中证沪港深行业指数系列将中证沪港深 500、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合以及中证沪港深互 联互通综合指数样本按行业分类标准分别分为 11 个行业，再以各行业全部证券作为样本编制指数，以 反映中证沪港深指数系列中不同行业公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rebound due to the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to lead to actual production cuts and improve coal prices. The analysis is based on the mean reversion of return on equity (ROE) and the reasonable profit distribution levels of thermal coal and coking coal within their respective industrial chains [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed significant increases in coal commodities and equity prices. The report highlights the importance of understanding the future space for coal under this policy, particularly following the State Energy Administration's notice regarding coal mine production inspections [6][18] ROE Perspective - The report calculates the expected central price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on historical average ROE. The central price for thermal coal is estimated at 749 CNY/ton, which is 96 CNY/ton higher than the price of 653 CNY/ton on July 25, 2025 (+14.7%). For coking coal, the central price is estimated at 1838 CNY/ton, which is 158 CNY/ton higher than the July 25 price of 1680 CNY/ton (+9.4%) [6][34][35] Industry Chain Perspective - The report assesses the reasonable price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on profit distribution in the coal-electricity and coal-steel industrial chains. It estimates that the reasonable price for thermal coal could be between 776 CNY/ton and 835 CNY/ton, reflecting potential increases of 18.9% and 27.9% respectively from current prices. For coking coal, the reasonable price could range from 1707 CNY/ton to 2094 CNY/ton, with corresponding increases of 1.6% to 24.7% [7][44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that there is still room for price-to-book (PB) mean reversion, indicating a favorable investment ratio for coal stocks. It recommends focusing on short-term rebounds and long-term reversal opportunities in the coal sector. Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Elastic stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical 3. Transition growth stocks: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [8][50][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a tightening supply side due to government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply-demand situation and a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 645 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1650 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 86.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [11][42] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 51,000 tons/day (-13.04%) and in coastal provinces by 19,600 tons/day (-8.1%) [11][42] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 429,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight increase of 85,000 tons [11] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with the coal mining sector rising by 8.00% this week, outperforming the broader market [15][17] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for their stable operations and solid performance [12][13]