日前，中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席2025陆家嘴论坛开幕式，宣布将在上海实施八项政策举措，其中之 一是会同证监会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易，推动完善外汇市场产品序列，便利金融机构和外贸企业 更好地管理汇率风险。 这也就意味着人民币外汇期货的推出已被正式提上日程。尽管在我国境内人民币外汇期货尚未推出，但 其在境外市场已是相对成熟且热门的期货品种。2014年10月份，新加坡交易所(SGX)推出美元/离岸人民 币期货，成为全球首只现金结算的人民币期货。 对于我国市场而言，人民币外汇期货的推出具有一定迫切性。中国银行研究院主管王有鑫在接受《证券 日报》记者采访时表示，当前国际形势复杂多变，跨境资本流动规模较大且方向易变，主要货币汇率大 幅波动，人民币汇率双向波动的特征也愈发明显。境内企业面临的汇率风险敞口扩大，避险需求快速增 长。 "目前，我国基础汇率避险工具领域已与国际市场发展水平接轨，构建起了包含远期、掉期、货币互换 及期权等产品的外汇衍生品市场体系，这在一定程度上满足了大多数实体经济的汇率避险需求。然而， 全球经济格局持续演变，不确定性增加，基础汇率避险工具已难以完全满足企业日益复杂、多元的需 求。因此，推进境内 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 美联储按兵不动，股指承压下行 市场回顾 股指期货日报 2025年6月19日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 股指日报 今日股指集体收跌，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.82%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升595.57亿元。期 指均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 今日凌晨，美联储公布6月利率决议，将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动， 符合市场预期。 核心观点 凌晨美联储最新利率决议公布，继续按兵不动，鲍威尔鹰派发言导致美元指数上涨，外围压力加大，再加上 外围局势动荡，中东地缘政治风险进一步升级，指数承压，今日整体震荡下行。当前指数缺乏驱动，上行存 在较大阻力，不过管理层稳市场决心较强，因此我们认为股指下方空间有限。在市场消化完外围增大的压力 后，预期回归区间震荡，等待新的驱动出现。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.80 | -0.63 | -1.03 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at approximately 3362 points, down by 0.79%. The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell more significantly, down by 1.21% and 1.36% respectively, indicating a low market sentiment with over 4600 stocks declining [1]. Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector saw a significant surge, with stocks like Shouhua Gas hitting the daily limit up, driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East following Israel's military actions against Iran, raising concerns over potential oil supply disruptions. International oil prices spiked, with WTI crude oil surpassing $76 per barrel, marking a new high for the year [3]. - Despite the short-term volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global oil supply remains adequate, suggesting that sustained price surges are unlikely. Companies with strong production capabilities and cost control, such as CNOOC, are recommended for long-term investment [3]. Short Drama Concept - The short drama segment showed localized strength, with companies like Baina Qiancheng and Ciweng Media reaching their daily limits. This growth is attributed to Tencent's launch of a "short drama" mini-program, which has attracted a large user base through a free viewing model, alongside algorithmic recommendations from platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [4]. - The short drama market caters to modern consumers' fragmented entertainment needs, with episodes lasting 1-3 minutes. The business model is evolving from paid content to ad monetization and integration with gaming and e-commerce, indicating significant growth potential. However, the market faces challenges due to content homogenization, making companies with strong IP reserves and production capabilities, such as Zhongwen Online, more valuable in the long run [4]. Other Sectors - The controlled nuclear fusion concept faced a collective downturn, with companies like Xuguang Electronics and Hezhu Intelligent hitting their daily limits. This sector had previously seen rapid gains, leading to profit-taking as market sentiment cooled. While the long-term prospects for controlled nuclear fusion are promising, significant technological breakthroughs and commercialization are expected to take time, with projections extending beyond 2035 [4]. - The diversified financial and superconducting sectors also underperformed, with companies like Ruida Futures and Nanhua Futures experiencing notable declines. This trend is attributed to a decrease in overall market risk appetite, leading to capital outflows from these high-volatility sectors. However, the long-term value of leading brokerage and futures firms remains intact, especially with ongoing capital market reforms [5]. Investment Perspective - The investment landscape is characterized as a marathon rather than a sprint, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and long-term trends despite short-term market adjustments. The oil and gas sector benefits from global energy transitions, while the short drama concept aligns with consumer upgrade trends. There may also be opportunities in sectors experiencing corrections, suggesting a patient, value-driven investment approach [6].

Core Insights - The main contract for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) closed at 2508 with an increase of 2.15% as of June 19, with a trading volume of 63,200 contracts and a net short position among the top 20 positions of 1,822 contracts [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all LPG contracts was 180,500 contracts, a decrease of 35,500 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 86,800 contracts, an increase of 2,367 contracts, while short positions totaled 89,000 contracts, an increase of 3,139 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with a total position of 13,047 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with a total position of 12,780 contracts - Guotai Junan with a total position of 11,629 contracts [1][4]. - The top three short positions were held by: - Guotai Junan with a total position of 12,422 contracts - CITIC Futures with a total position of 12,397 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with a total position of 10,090 contracts [1][4]. Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were: - Galaxy Futures with an increase of 1,200 contracts - Founder Futures with an increase of 641 contracts - Anliang Futures with an increase of 570 contracts [1][3]. - The top three decreases in long positions were: - Guotai Junan with a decrease of 657 contracts - Nanhua Futures with a decrease of 545 contracts - Changjiang Futures with a decrease of 80 contracts [1][3]. Short Position Changes - The top three increases in short positions were: - Guotai Junan with an increase of 2,380 contracts - Haizheng Futures with an increase of 425 contracts - Huatai Futures with an increase of 326 contracts [1][3]. - The top three decreases in short positions were: - CITIC Futures with a decrease of 1,830 contracts - Changjiang Futures with a decrease of 84 contracts - Donghai Futures with a decrease of 20 contracts [1][3].

南华商品指数：所有版块均上涨，能化板块领涨 王怡琳 2025-06-19 08:40:23 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨1.47%。板块指数中，所有板块均有所上涨，其中涨 幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，涨幅为2.48%；涨幅最小的板块是南华黑色指数，涨幅为0.1%。 主题指数中，所有 主题指数均有所上涨，其中涨幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，涨幅为3.96%；涨幅最小的主题指数是黑色原材料指 数，涨幅为0.01%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是原油，上涨5.3%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品 种指数是线材，跌幅为-0.87%。 数据来源：南华期货 免责声明 aranakabase: "Zagangan", "Alaman", "Alax Teleplay", "Anakata", " "Taller", "Alland", "Allen", "Allen", "Allen", "All Program", "All Program", "All Program Program Program > 南华期货 | 股票代码 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月18日 投资咨 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to enhance Shanghai's status as an international financial center, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and offshore trade financial service reforms [1][2]. - The establishment of the digital RMB international operation center aims to improve the RMB's position in the international monetary system, facilitate cross-border trade, and lower traditional payment costs [2][3]. - The offshore trade financial service reform pilot in Shanghai's Lingang New Area reflects China's emphasis on international trade and offshore finance, aiming to broaden financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [3][4]. Group 2 - The introduction of structural monetary policy tool innovations in Shanghai includes trials for blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing, which are expected to enhance financing support for foreign trade enterprises [4][5]. - The collaboration between the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading is anticipated to create favorable conditions for managing exchange rate risks for financial institutions and enterprises [5][6]. - The development of a diversified foreign exchange market product series is expected to attract more international investors, enhancing market liquidity and activity, while also boosting confidence in holding RMB assets among foreign investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the European shipping index futures experiencing a downward trend, indicating potential challenges in the shipping sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European shipping index futures opened at 2060.0 points, fluctuating between a high of 2064.0 points and a low of 1990.0 points, with a decline of 1.71% noted [1] - The overall market performance is characterized by weak sentiment and a downward trend in the European shipping index [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures suggests that the impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel conflict, on the European shipping index is minimal, with price fluctuations driven more by market sentiment [1] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the 08 contract closely follows spot freight rates, with potential for rebound driven by geopolitical tensions and upcoming price adjustments in July and August [1] - Jianxin Futures highlights strong resilience in European export demand and stable supply capacity, suggesting that price increases may be supported by fundamental factors if June prices stabilize [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock index showed a slight oscillation today, with a minor increase in the trading volume of the two markets. Currently, there are significant overseas uncertainties, and the economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state. The impact of tariffs may persist, and the economic outlook is weak, which restricts the upward movement of the stock index. In the short term, there is significant resistance to the continuous upward movement of the index. However, the expectation of policy support has risen, and there is still sufficient support at the market bottom. Attention should be paid to the Lujiazui Forum from June 18th to 19th, where several financial policies will be announced. It is expected that the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed mixed performance today, with small and medium - cap stock indexes closing higher and large - cap stock indexes closing lower. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.631 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM increased in volume, while the other varieties increased in price with reduced volume [4]. Important Information - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative stated that China and the United States have basically reached an agreement framework. - The deadline for Trump's tariffs is approaching, and the EU is said to have refused to compromise and plans to postpone trade negotiations until after July. - There has been no tariff increase yet. The US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year in May, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.08 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 8.3934 | 4.5745 | 6.7708 | 15.899 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.8191 | - 0.8228 | - 1.2832 | - 2.5693 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 23.5571 | 8.2865 | 21.6406 | 32.6593 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 1.5578 | - 0.1138 | - 0.2651 | 0.2007 | [7] Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.01 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.11 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.81 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 12717.69 | | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | 163.10 | [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium to long term. The short - term (1 - 3 months) probability of the Guinea Axis mine remaining shut is high, but the long - term risk of permanent closure is uncertain [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term, with a possible short - term upward trend, but a bearish view in the medium term [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure. Short - term unilateral operations should be cautious, and positive spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 2895 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.4309, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.9309 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main alumina futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main alumina futures contract at 2700 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The Guinea Axis mine has not resumed production, and port inventory shipping is restricted. The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices [3]. - **Leveraging Factors**: The Guinea government has revoked some mining licenses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: New production capacity is being put into operation, demand has no growth, profit recovery may lead to the resumption of production by shut - down enterprises, and spot prices have fallen in some areas [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 20250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19000 - 20300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0977, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.4114 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 20100 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 19600 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is weakening, and low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Low inventory and continuous de - stocking, tight spot supply in East China [5][8]. - **Negative Factors**: Terminal factory orders have decreased significantly, downstream operating rates have declined slightly, and there are signs of product inventory accumulation [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 19400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 18500 - 19900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The cost is strongly supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Tight scrap aluminum supply supports costs [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Expected weakening demand and industry over - capacity [5][6]. Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of various aluminum and alumina contracts are provided, including Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina contracts, as well as regional price differences and basis data [7][9][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of aluminum and alumina, including Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, London Metal Exchange inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts, are presented [27].

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/06/11 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 袁铭：Z0012648 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 700-850 | 39.52% | 77.99% | | 焦炭 | 1270-1400 | 26.87% | 54.55% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锁定售价 | 钢厂对焦炭提降，担心焦炭价格下跌 | 多 | 做空焦炭2509合约 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1350-1380 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1380-1410 | | 锁定售价 | 焦煤现货库存高企，担心价格进 ...