Core Insights - The main contract for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) closed at 2508 with an increase of 2.15% as of June 19, with a trading volume of 63,200 contracts and a net short position among the top 20 positions of 1,822 contracts [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all LPG contracts was 180,500 contracts, a decrease of 35,500 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 86,800 contracts, an increase of 2,367 contracts, while short positions totaled 89,000 contracts, an increase of 3,139 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with a total position of 13,047 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with a total position of 12,780 contracts - Guotai Junan with a total position of 11,629 contracts [1][4]. - The top three short positions were held by: - Guotai Junan with a total position of 12,422 contracts - CITIC Futures with a total position of 12,397 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with a total position of 10,090 contracts [1][4]. Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were: - Galaxy Futures with an increase of 1,200 contracts - Founder Futures with an increase of 641 contracts - Anliang Futures with an increase of 570 contracts [1][3]. - The top three decreases in long positions were: - Guotai Junan with a decrease of 657 contracts - Nanhua Futures with a decrease of 545 contracts - Changjiang Futures with a decrease of 80 contracts [1][3]. Short Position Changes - The top three increases in short positions were: - Guotai Junan with an increase of 2,380 contracts - Haizheng Futures with an increase of 425 contracts - Huatai Futures with an increase of 326 contracts [1][3]. - The top three decreases in short positions were: - CITIC Futures with a decrease of 1,830 contracts - Changjiang Futures with a decrease of 84 contracts - Donghai Futures with a decrease of 20 contracts [1][3].

南华商品指数：所有版块均上涨，能化板块领涨 王怡琳 2025-06-19 08:40:23 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨1.47%。板块指数中，所有板块均有所上涨，其中涨 幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，涨幅为2.48%；涨幅最小的板块是南华黑色指数，涨幅为0.1%。 主题指数中，所有 主题指数均有所上涨，其中涨幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，涨幅为3.96%；涨幅最小的主题指数是黑色原材料指 数，涨幅为0.01%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是原油，上涨5.3%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品 种指数是线材，跌幅为-0.87%。 数据来源：南华期货 免责声明 aranakabase: "Zagangan", "Alaman", "Alax Teleplay", "Anakata", " "Taller", "Alland", "Allen", "Allen", "Allen", "All Program", "All Program", "All Program Program Program > 南华期货 | 股票代码 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月18日 投资咨 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to enhance Shanghai's status as an international financial center, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and offshore trade financial service reforms [1][2]. - The establishment of the digital RMB international operation center aims to improve the RMB's position in the international monetary system, facilitate cross-border trade, and lower traditional payment costs [2][3]. - The offshore trade financial service reform pilot in Shanghai's Lingang New Area reflects China's emphasis on international trade and offshore finance, aiming to broaden financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [3][4]. Group 2 - The introduction of structural monetary policy tool innovations in Shanghai includes trials for blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing, which are expected to enhance financing support for foreign trade enterprises [4][5]. - The collaboration between the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading is anticipated to create favorable conditions for managing exchange rate risks for financial institutions and enterprises [5][6]. - The development of a diversified foreign exchange market product series is expected to attract more international investors, enhancing market liquidity and activity, while also boosting confidence in holding RMB assets among foreign investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the European shipping index futures experiencing a downward trend, indicating potential challenges in the shipping sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European shipping index futures opened at 2060.0 points, fluctuating between a high of 2064.0 points and a low of 1990.0 points, with a decline of 1.71% noted [1] - The overall market performance is characterized by weak sentiment and a downward trend in the European shipping index [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures suggests that the impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel conflict, on the European shipping index is minimal, with price fluctuations driven more by market sentiment [1] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the 08 contract closely follows spot freight rates, with potential for rebound driven by geopolitical tensions and upcoming price adjustments in July and August [1] - Jianxin Futures highlights strong resilience in European export demand and stable supply capacity, suggesting that price increases may be supported by fundamental factors if June prices stabilize [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock index showed a slight oscillation today, with a minor increase in the trading volume of the two markets. Currently, there are significant overseas uncertainties, and the economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state. The impact of tariffs may persist, and the economic outlook is weak, which restricts the upward movement of the stock index. In the short term, there is significant resistance to the continuous upward movement of the index. However, the expectation of policy support has risen, and there is still sufficient support at the market bottom. Attention should be paid to the Lujiazui Forum from June 18th to 19th, where several financial policies will be announced. It is expected that the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed mixed performance today, with small and medium - cap stock indexes closing higher and large - cap stock indexes closing lower. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.631 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM increased in volume, while the other varieties increased in price with reduced volume [4]. Important Information - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative stated that China and the United States have basically reached an agreement framework. - The deadline for Trump's tariffs is approaching, and the EU is said to have refused to compromise and plans to postpone trade negotiations until after July. - There has been no tariff increase yet. The US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year in May, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.08 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 8.3934 | 4.5745 | 6.7708 | 15.899 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.8191 | - 0.8228 | - 1.2832 | - 2.5693 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 23.5571 | 8.2865 | 21.6406 | 32.6593 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 1.5578 | - 0.1138 | - 0.2651 | 0.2007 | [7] Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.01 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.11 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.81 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 12717.69 | | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | 163.10 | [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium to long term. The short - term (1 - 3 months) probability of the Guinea Axis mine remaining shut is high, but the long - term risk of permanent closure is uncertain [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term, with a possible short - term upward trend, but a bearish view in the medium term [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure. Short - term unilateral operations should be cautious, and positive spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 2895 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.4309, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.9309 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main alumina futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main alumina futures contract at 2700 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The Guinea Axis mine has not resumed production, and port inventory shipping is restricted. The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices [3]. - **Leveraging Factors**: The Guinea government has revoked some mining licenses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: New production capacity is being put into operation, demand has no growth, profit recovery may lead to the resumption of production by shut - down enterprises, and spot prices have fallen in some areas [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 20250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19000 - 20300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0977, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.4114 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 20100 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 19600 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is weakening, and low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Low inventory and continuous de - stocking, tight spot supply in East China [5][8]. - **Negative Factors**: Terminal factory orders have decreased significantly, downstream operating rates have declined slightly, and there are signs of product inventory accumulation [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 19400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 18500 - 19900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The cost is strongly supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Tight scrap aluminum supply supports costs [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Expected weakening demand and industry over - capacity [5][6]. Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of various aluminum and alumina contracts are provided, including Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina contracts, as well as regional price differences and basis data [7][9][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of aluminum and alumina, including Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, London Metal Exchange inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts, are presented [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - China-US relations have eased, driving market sentiment to recover. Coking coal has better rebound elasticity due to previous over - decline in the futures market, while coke rebounds following coking coal but with a weaker amplitude due to downstream price cuts, and the coking profit on the futures market has shrunk. The coking coal and coke futures have basically repaired the discount, and the current basis is in a reasonable range. Although there is rigid support for the demand for coking coal and coke in the short term, there are no conditions for bottom - fishing at present. It is recommended to close short positions at low levels and keep previous short positions at high levels. The industry can focus on hedging opportunities under low basis [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 700 - 850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.52% and a historical percentile of 77.99%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1270 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.87% and a historical percentile of 54.55% [1] 2. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - When steel mills propose price cuts for coke and are worried about price drops, for those with long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the J2509 contract of coke. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1350 - 1380 and 50% when it is 1380 - 1410. When the coking coal spot inventory is high and there are concerns about further price drops, for those with long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract of coking coal. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 770 - 800 and 50% when it is 800 - 830 [1] 3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On June 11, 2025, compared with June 10, 2025, the warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2358 tons, silicon iron decreased by 20 sheets, and silicon manganese increased by 288 sheets, while the warehouse receipts of rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke remained unchanged [2] 4. Bullish Factors - China - US representatives held talks in London, warming market sentiment; mine开工 declined, leading to a temporary mismatch in coking coal supply and demand; and it is the peak season for thermal coal demand, with pit - head prices firm [3] 5. Bearish Factors - An inflection point in hot metal production has emerged, leading to weaker demand for coking coal and coke [4] 6. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices - From June 4 to June 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices and related spreads and basis have changed. For example, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 8.5 [4] 7. Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - From June 4 to June 11, 2025, most coking coal and coke spot prices decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke decreased by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [5] 8. Other Information - Three rounds of price cuts for coke have been implemented, and there is an expectation of another round of price cuts this month. Throughout the year, the general direction of stable coal production and supply guarantee remains unchanged [6]

Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in the coking coal sector, with fluctuations in prices and varying opinions on future performance from different institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures opened at 1345.0 CNY/ton, with a peak of 1365.5 CNY and a low of 1339.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.31% [1]. - The overall performance of coking coal is characterized by a strong upward trend, despite some pressures from supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Guosen Futures noted that the average losses for coking enterprises have slightly increased due to three rounds of price reductions, with a small decline in operating rates and a decrease in supply [1]. - Demand is weak as steel mills reduce production during the off-season, leading to a slight decrease in iron output, which has resulted in an accumulation of coking coal inventory [1]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures indicated that the recent improvement in US-China relations has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a rebound in coking coal prices, although the rebound in coking coal is weaker due to downstream price reductions [2]. - Guosen Futures also highlighted that the current cost of coking coal is between 780-800 CNY, while the cost for coking coal after three rounds of price reductions is between 1310-1330 CNY, indicating a basic recovery in price differentials [2]. - The overall supply of carbon elements remains ample, and the stable iron output above 241 suggests that there is still some support for coal and coke demand [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, today the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.06%. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 0.52%, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The Nanhua Metal Index had the largest decline of -0.39%, and the Nanhua Precious Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.07%. Among the theme indices, the Energy Index had the largest increase of 1.11%, and the Oilseeds Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.37%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.12%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Fuel Oil Index had the largest increase of 1.74%, and the Plywood Index had the largest decline of -1.93% [1][3]. 3. Summary by Index Type 3.1 Comprehensive and Sector Indices | Index Name | Today's Close | Yesterday's Close | Points Change | Daily Change | Annualized Return Rate | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2400.26 | 2398.92 | 1.33 | 0.06% | -12.75% | 14.01% | -0.91 | | Precious Metal Index NHPMI | 1238.66 | 1239.55 | -0.89 | -0.07% | 24.46% | 18.46% | 1.32 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3443.70 | 3437.64 | 6.06 | 0.18% | -19.41% | 15.77% | -1.23 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6036.80 | 6060.55 | -23.75 | -0.39% | -15.83% | 15.45% | -1.02 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1598.39 | 1590.08 | 8.30 | 0.52% | -22.88% | 17.00% | -1.35 | | Non - ferrous Metal Index NHNF | 1633.92 | 1638.83 | -4.92 | -0.30% | -11.71% | 14.36% | -0.82 | | Black Index NHFI | 2303.82 | 2309.83 | -6.02 | -0.26% | -27.09% | 21.50% | -1.26 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1063.47 | 1060.97 | 2.50 | 0.24% | -3.27% | 9.99% | -0.33 | | Mini Composite Index NHCIMi | 1106.93 | 1104.77 | 2.16 | 0.20% | -1.87% | 13.26% | -0.14 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1003.48 | 992.49 | 10.99 | 1.11% | -5.49% | 30.62% | -0.18 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 930.36 | 927.57 | 2.79 | 0.30% | -2.81% | 20.20% | -0.14 | | Coal - based Chemical Index NHCCI | 1011.08 | 1009.75 | 1.33 | 0.13% | -3.88% | 18.24% | -0.21 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 919.14 | 920.24 | -1.10 | -0.12% | -5.79% | 21.20% | -0.27 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 713.42 | 716.04 | -2.63 | -0.37% | -5.49% | 15.66% | -0.35 | | Oilseeds Index NHOOl | 1190.91 | 1189.88 | 1.02 | 0.09% | -0.40% | 12.02% | -0.03 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 874.82 | 873.31 | 1.51 | 0.17% | -0.86% | 9.54% | -0.09% | [3] 3.2 Single - Variety Indices - The single - variety index with the largest increase was the Fuel Oil Index, rising 1.74%, and the single - variety index with the largest decline was the Plywood Index, falling -1.93% [3][4]. 3.3 Other Information - Some single - variety indices also showed changes in their positions. For example, the position change ratios of some products such as soda ash, eggs, and iron ore are provided, but the data presentation is incomplete [4]. - There are also some industry chain diagrams for parts of the energy - chemical and black sectors, showing the daily changes in the single - variety indices of related products [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances, and the Sino-US talks bring about periodic emotional fluctuations. However, the characteristics of the domestic downstream off-season are gradually emerging, with insufficient new orders from gauze factories. The driving force for cotton price rebound is weak, and the cotton price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the previous high of 13,560 and the adjustment of the US foreign tariff policy [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.065 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0734 [3] - For inventory management when inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price decline, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell call options (CF509C13800) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (CF509P12800) at 150 - 200 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot cotton buying price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, high - quality resources are scarce, and the remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5] - Cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4.3998 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton that has not been hedged [7] - The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, a decline in the operating rate of gauze factories, general enthusiasm for raw material procurement, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and a slight increase in finished product inventory [7] Price Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,475, unchanged (0%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,520, up 25 (0.19%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,820, down 75 (-0.38%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,725, down 15 (-0.08%) [6][8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,223, up 98; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 45, down 25; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 30, up 20; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,230, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 891, up 25; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 677, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was at 14,743, up 123 (0.84%); CCI 2227B was at 12,886, up 106 (0.83%); CCI 2129B was at 15,060, up 132 (0.88%); FCI Index S was at 13,946, up 31 (0.22%); FCI Index M was at 13,761, up 32 (0.23%); FCI Index L was at 13,530, up 31 (0.23%) [9]