Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Affected by the news of crude steel reduction, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. Recently, the spot price of steel has followed the increase, and the immediate spot profit of steel has improved. High profits will drive the continued increase in hot metal production. In the short term, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both strong, and the price bottom has certain support. In the medium and long term, considering that it takes time to formulate the details of the crude steel reduction policy, if the policy cannot be implemented immediately, steel mills have no incentive to cut production voluntarily under high profits. When the real demand weakens in late May, the contradictions in the steel market will accumulate again, and the black industry will face a new round of negative feedback. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, hold a light position during the May Day holiday, and short jm&j2509 at high prices after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Coking Coal - For traders with high coking coal spot inventory worried about further price drops, to prevent price declines from affecting trading profits, they can sell coking coal futures (JM2509) to lock in the sales price in advance. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 980 - 1030, 50% at 1030 - 1080 [3]. Coke - For coking plants with high finished - product inventory worried about coke price drops, to prevent price declines from damaging coking profits, they can short coke futures (J2509) according to the sales plan to lock in the price. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 1600 - 1650, 50% at 1650 - 1700 [3]. Group 4: Market Conditions Analysis 利多 Factors - Steel mills have high profits, and there is still an expectation of increased hot metal production [5]. 利空 Factors - The trade war has escalated, and the US has imposed huge tariffs on China, causing concerns about steel exports. - Coking coal is in serious oversupply. In the Shanxi region, producers are increasing production and reducing prices to maintain sales volume. - The topic of crude steel reduction has been hyped repeatedly [5]. Group 5: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 04 - 28 | 2025 - 04 - 25 |环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 199647 | 202077 | - 2430 | | Hot - rolled coil | Tons | 349673 | 353201 | - 3528 | | Iron ore | Lots | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | | Coking coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 890 | 890 | 0 | | Silico - manganese | Sheets | 123129 | 122403 | 726 | | Silico - iron | Sheets | 14906 | 14287 | 619 | [5] Group 6: Spot Price and Profit Data Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - Multiple types of coking coal and coke spot prices are provided, including prices of different origins such as Anze low - sulfur coking coal, Mongolian coal, and Australian coal, as well as coke prices in different regions like Lvliang and Rizhao. There are also price changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Import and Export Profits - Import and export profit data of coking coal and coke are presented, including import profits of Mongolian coal, Australian coal, and Russian coal, as well as coke export profit. There are also daily and weekly profit changes [7]. Basis and Spread Data - Multiple sets of basis and spread data of coking coal and coke are provided, such as coking coal 09 - 01, coke 05 - 09, etc., along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Ratio and Profit Data - Data on ratios such as the main coking coal/dynamic coal ratio, main ore - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio, as well as profit data such as the on - screen coking profit are presented, along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7].

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/04/28 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1300 | 34.52% | 77.1% | | 纯碱 | 1200-1400 | 19.66% | 10.9% | source： 南华研究 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | | | 套保比例 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | （%） | 建议入场区间 | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 | | | | | | | 库 | | 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1250-1300 | | | 存 | 产成品库存偏 ...

戴一帆：Z0015428 周燕勤：F03129302 黄思婕：F03130744 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 周度观点 南华苯乙烯产业链数据周报20250427 港口去库，基差走弱 | | 上游(纯苯) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 截至4月24日，石油苯开工率71.1%，环比+0.8%;加氢苯开工率58.2%,环比-3.1%。据评估，2025年3月韩国出口纯苯总计31.48 万吨,其中出口至中国29.02万吨。 | | | 库存 | 截至4月21日,江苏纯莱港口库存12.1万吨,较上期去库2.1万吨,环比下降14.79%。 | | | | 中游(苯乙烯) | | | 供应 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯开工率67.9%,环比+1.1% | | | 库存 | 截至2025年4月21日，江苏莱乙烯港口库存8.65万吨，较上周期去库0.91万吨，幅度一9.52%；截至2025年4月24日，中国苯乙烯 | | | | 工厂样本库存量21.63万吨,较上一周期增减少0.22万吨,环比减少1%。 | | | 利润 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯一体化利润在-379元/吨附 ...

展望后市，从短期市场驱动因素分析，前期致使美元走弱的核心因素 —— 国际贸易局势，现阶段出 现了短暂的边际缓和迹象。这一变化对市场风险偏好形成了支撑，在一定程度上，可能促使美元指数呈现 技术性修复态势。然而，从中期基本面视角审视，美国经济增长前景依旧低迷，其黯淡状况并未得到根本 性扭转，这对美元持续走强构成了实质性约束。美元兑人民币即期汇率方面，临近五一假期，市场交易活 跃度可能有所下降，大概率延续前期态势，在一定区间内保持相对稳定。不过，在假期期间，需重点关注 以下宏观风险因素： 1）贸易摩擦的不确定性依然存在，关税主题后续的演绎方向和程度仍需高度警惕，其发展态势或对 市场预期产生重大影响； 2）特朗普政府政策与美联储货币政策之间存在根本性矛盾，这一矛盾的解决路径及演变过程，将在 较大程度上左右金融市场走向； 3）受关税威胁影响下的5月初相关经济数据表现，尤其是五一假期间公布的非农就业数据。 风险点：海外货币政策调整超预期、地缘政治冲突超预期、特朗普非常规出牌 南华外汇（美元兑人民币）周报 五一假期临近，注意宏观风险 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 ...

Group 1 - Multiple banks have issued warnings about the risks of gold investment, particularly regarding the use of credit cards for purchasing gold, which is considered a violation of regulations [1] - The "Guzi" economy, centered around anime and gaming merchandise, is projected to reach a market size of 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 40.63% from 2023 [1] - The first public appearance of a megawatt-level helium refrigeration machine marks a significant breakthrough in China's low-temperature technology, with a liquefaction rate of 3,370 liters per hour [1] Group 2 - The first embodied intelligent robot sports event in Wuxi showcased advancements in robotics, with local companies making progress in key technologies [2] - MIT has created a unique "periodic table" of machine learning algorithms, highlighting over 20 classic algorithms and their interconnections, which may enhance AI model development [2] - Harvard University is exploring the sale of approximately $1 billion in private equity fund assets as part of a financial strategy following a federal funding freeze [2] Group 3 - Meituan clarified rumors regarding account suspensions due to alleged use of dual-opening or JD software, attributing the misinformation to malicious editing of a legitimate warning [3][4] - Tianhe Environmental Protection has terminated its IPO plans on the Beijing Stock Exchange, which aimed to raise 180 million yuan for various projects [4] - The first quarter performance report of several futures companies indicates a significant divergence in results, with some companies experiencing substantial growth while others face declines [5] Group 4 - Tianli Lithium Energy announced that its subsidiary's land use rights have been seized due to a lawsuit, with a three-year freeze period [6] - Ningbo Shuntong received a written warning from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for inaccuracies in its financial data disclosures [6] - Rixin Technology reported overdue bank loans totaling 39.7 million yuan, and is in discussions with the bank to secure funds for repayment [7] Group 5 - A private education institution from Chengdu has emerged in the A-share market, acquiring significant stakes in multiple companies, with total holdings exceeding 55 million yuan [8] - Changchun High-tech reported its first decline in revenue and net profit in a decade, with a 7.55% drop in revenue to 13.466 billion yuan and a 43.01% decrease in net profit to 2.583 billion yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures reported a significant decline in revenue for Q1 2025, with a 46.2% year-on-year drop to 534 million yuan, while net profit saw a slight increase of 0.13% to 85.7383 million yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - The revenue decline is attributed to the adoption of net method for revenue recognition in commodity trading, which does not affect net profit [2] - Core business performance is under pressure, with net commission income down 22.7% to 107 million yuan and net interest income down 20.5% to 143 million yuan [2] - Other business income fell by 60.9% to 270 million yuan, a decrease of 420 million yuan year-on-year [2] Wealth Management - As of the end of Q1, the asset management scale of Nanhua Fund decreased to 11.806 billion yuan, a drop of 45.2% year-on-year, primarily due to market fluctuations in the bond sector [2] Cost Management - The company managed to reduce management expenses from 172 million yuan to 156 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 3.52% to 32% [2] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow saw a drastic decline of 354% to -11.758 billion yuan, with cash outflows related to operations increasing significantly [3] IPO and Capital Strategy - Nanhua Futures is accelerating its IPO process in Hong Kong, having submitted its application on April 17, aiming to enhance its capital structure and competitiveness in overseas markets [4] - The company views its overseas business as a crucial growth area, with overseas revenue reaching 654 million yuan in 2024, a 15.32% increase [4] - Since its A-share listing in 2019, Nanhua Futures has raised capital multiple times to support its expansion, including a recent 1.2 billion yuan convertible bond issuance plan [4][5] Overall Business Outlook - Despite profit growth, overall revenue has been declining, indicating a need for capital replenishment to expand overseas market operations [5]

瑞财经 王敏 4月21日，南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"南华期货"）发布2025年第一季度报告。 | | | | 单位: 元 巾神:人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | | | | | 增减变动幅度(%) | | 营业收入 | 533, 712, 383. 94 | 992, 083, 545. 23 | -46. 20 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净 利润 | 85, 738, 272. 20 | 85, 623, 759, 78 | 0. 13 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣 | 85, 649, 688. 65 | 85. 018. 198. 61 | 0. 74 | | 除非经常性损益的净利润 | | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量 | -11.758.175.827.18 | -2,588, 971, 322. 30 | -354. 16 | | 净额 | | | | | 基本每股收益(元/股) | 0.14 | 0. 14 | | 2025年一季度，南华期货实现营业收入为5.34亿元，同比下降46.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Nanhua Futures, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - Nanhua Futures reported a total operating revenue of 530 million yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 46.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from its upcoming listing in Hong Kong, which could strengthen its competitive edge in overseas markets [9][10]. - The report highlights a significant decline in net interest income and commission income, with respective year-on-year decreases of 20.5% and 22.1% [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, the main revenue is projected at 5,711.61 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.6%. The net profit is expected to be 457.97 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 14.0% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to be 0.88 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 1.06 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.52, 13.48, and 12.05 [4][10]. - The total market capitalization of Nanhua Futures is reported at 7.778 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 89.41% [6]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the high interest rate environment will continue to support the company's overseas net interest income growth [9]. - The company has submitted an application for a stock listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international presence and solidify its competitive advantages in overseas markets [9][10].

Core Points - The company guarantees the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the quarterly report, and assumes legal responsibility for any false records or misleading statements [1][5][10] Financial Data - The first quarter financial statements are not audited [2] - The report includes major accounting data and financial indicators, but specific figures are not provided in the text [2][3] Shareholder Information - Information regarding the total number of common shareholders and the top ten shareholders is mentioned, but specific details are not provided [3] Board Meeting - The fourth board meeting was held on April 18, 2025, with all seven directors present, and the meeting procedures complied with legal regulations [6][8] - The board approved the proposal regarding the 2025 first quarter report [6][7] Supervisory Meeting - The fourth supervisory meeting was also held on April 18, 2025, with all three supervisors present, and the meeting procedures complied with legal regulations [11][12] - The supervisory board approved the proposal regarding the 2025 first quarter report, confirming that the report's preparation and review processes met all regulatory requirements [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for Nanhua Futures [1] Core Views - Nanhua Futures reported a stable net profit year-on-year in Q1 2025, despite a significant decline in revenue, primarily due to changes in revenue recognition methods [7][8] - The company has formally submitted its application to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in overseas markets [7][8] - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.39 billion, 5.88 billion, and 6.66 billion respectively, indicating growth rates of 17.72%, 9.15%, and 13.16% [7][8] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 534 million, down 46.2% year-on-year, while net profit was 86 million, up 0.1% year-on-year [7] - The decline in revenue was attributed to a significant drop in net commission income and interest income, with net commission income falling by 22.7% and interest income by 20.5% [7] - Investment income showed a positive turnaround, contributing 18 million in Q1 2025 [7] Cost and Expense Management - Overall expenses decreased in line with revenue, with business and management fees down 9.3% to 156 million [7] - Credit impairment losses significantly decreased by 65% to 7 million [7] - Other business costs also fell by 61.6% to 266 million, reflecting the decline in other business income [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - Nanhua Futures is positioned to become the second "A+H" listed futures company in China, following Hongye Futures, which could enhance its market presence [7] - The company is expected to continue leveraging its strengths in overseas clearing and risk management capabilities [7]