Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 14, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Tin prices declined slightly on Wednesday, with limited macro influence. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. The unexpected impact of the production cut at Bisie tin mine in Alphamin's financial report has pushed up short - term tin prices. There is no significant change in demand [3] Summary by Section 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Tin Price Volatility**: The latest closing price is 269,820 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.36%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 26.1% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2510C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2510P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Lidofactors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin mines into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and shift from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures Market Data - **Daily Futures Data**: - **Shanghai Tin**: The main contract, continuous - one contract, and continuous - three contract prices are 269,820 yuan/ton, 269,820 yuan/ton, and 269,950 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [6] - **LME Tin 3M**: The price is 33,700 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars (- 0.21%) [6] - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The ratio is 7.95, down 0.03 (- 0.38%) [6] 4. Tin Spot Market Data - **Weekly Spot Data**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and various types of solder bars have increased to varying degrees [14] 5. Tin Import and Processing Data - **Daily Import and Processing Data**: The tin import profit and loss is - 15,720.3 yuan/ton, down 5.17% with a daily increase of 856.65 yuan. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ores remain unchanged [17] 6. Tin Inventory Data - **Daily Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in SHFE is 7,430 tons, up 0.45% (33 tons). The LME tin inventory is 1,765 tons, up 0.86% (15 tons) [20]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures reported a decline in stock price and trading volume, while announcing a capital increase for its subsidiary Nanhua Fund, indicating strategic growth plans in the financial sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Nanhua Futures, established in 1996, is one of the first companies in China to obtain qualifications for comprehensive settlement of financial futures [1] - The company operates in the diversified financial sector, focusing on commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, and futures investment consulting [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - On August 13, Nanhua Futures closed at 23.02 yuan, down 0.18 yuan, representing a decrease of 0.78% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on the same day was 403,000 lots, with a total transaction value of 929 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 6.61% [1] Group 3: Capital Increase Announcement - On August 12, the company announced plans to increase the capital of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanhua Fund, by 100 million yuan [1] - Following the capital increase, Nanhua Fund's registered capital will rise from 250 million yuan to 350 million yuan [1] - Nanhua Fund is noted as the first public fund management company fully controlled by a futures company in China [1] Group 4: Fund Flow Analysis - On August 13, the net outflow of main funds from Nanhua Futures was 25.4766 million yuan, accounting for 0.18% of the circulating market value [1] - Over the past five days, the cumulative net inflow of main funds reached 81.6376 million yuan, representing 0.58% of the circulating market value [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) continued their downward trend. As of the close, most monthly contracts declined, with the EC2508 contract showing a slight increase. The continuous reduction of spot cabin quotes on the European line pulled down the futures price valuation, and the far - month contracts declined significantly due to the capital side. The EC2508 contract was supported based on the basis convergence logic. In the future, it is expected that the EC is likely to fluctuate and decline or continue to fluctuate, and in the medium - term, without sudden events, the overall futures price may still decline slightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with over - booked or under - subscribed container space and worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1500 - 1600 to lock in profits [1]. - For those aiming to control costs when shipping companies increase blank sailings or approach the peak season, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to pre - determine booking costs [1]. Market Situation - **Futures Market**: The EC2510 contract had 3067 more long positions (reaching 32036) and 1911 more short positions (reaching 36027), with trading volume increasing by 35198 to 78498 (bilateral) [1]. - **Spot Market**: CMA CGM continued to lower spot cabin quotes on the European line, and the SCFIS European line continued to decline with an expanded decline [3]. EC Basis and Price - **Basis**: On August 13, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 152.48 points, down 1 point daily and 74.08 points weekly. The basis of EC2510 was 902.38 points, up 84.5 points daily and 24.62 points weekly [4][5]. - **Price and Spread**: On August 13, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2083.0 points, up 0.05% daily and 0.56% weekly; EC2510 closed at 1333.1 points, down 5.96% daily and 6.13% weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes - Maersk's 20GP total quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam on August 28 was $1385, up $30 from the previous period, and 40GP was $2330, up $60 [7]. - Hapag - Lloyd's 20GP opening quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam this week was $1535, down $200 from the previous period, and 40GP was $2435, down $400 [7]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS European route was at 2235.48 points, down 62.38 points (-2.71%); SCFIS US - West route was at 1082.14 points, down 47.98 points (-4.25%) [8]. Port Waiting Time - On August 12, 2025, Hong Kong Port's waiting time was 0.340 days, down 0.057 days; Shanghai Port's was 1.523 days, down 0.363 days [15]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On August 12, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.968 knots, down 0.22 knots; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 9, down 1 from the previous day [24].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum, co-hosted by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, aims to enhance the internationalization of China's futures market, focusing on high-level openness and attracting global financial institutions and enterprises [1][5]. Group 1: Market Opening and Internationalization - Since the implementation of the Futures and Derivatives Law, the legal foundation for the opening of China's futures market has become increasingly solid, with clear cross-border regulatory cooperation mechanisms [1]. - The internationalization of China's futures market is a composite product of the country's opening-up strategy, the real needs of the实体经济, and financial market institutional innovation [1][4]. - The current internationalization paths are complementary, with specific products enhancing pricing influence and QFII/RQFII improving market liquidity [1][2]. Group 2: Benefits of International Participation - The gradual and controlled opening model allows for the introduction of mature futures products, ensuring stable market operation while balancing the "bringing in" and "going out" strategies [2][4]. - The introduction of foreign traders enhances market liquidity and improves pricing capabilities, providing favorable conditions for enterprises' hedging and spot business [4]. - The participation of foreign investors in RMB-denominated internationalized products indirectly promotes the use of RMB in global commodity trade, extending the internationalization of the currency [2][5]. Group 3: Impact on Enterprises - The internationalization of the futures market significantly improves operational efficiency for enterprises, with simplified approval processes for foreign traders and enhanced cross-border trading efficiency [4]. - The demand for international risk management tools from China's实体经济 creates substantial opportunities for collaboration between foreign institutions and Chinese enterprises [5]. - The forum will showcase various case studies on the integration of production and finance, highlighting the practical applications of futures in cross-border trade [3][5]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Innovations - The forum is expected to facilitate discussions on optimizing the high-level opening paths of the domestic futures market and enhancing the global pricing influence of "Zhengzhou prices" [5][6]. - There is a focus on strengthening cooperation with foreign exchanges and clearinghouses, as well as leveraging technological innovations to upgrade cross-border trading systems [6]. - The expansion of QFII and RQFII tradable futures and options products indicates a favorable environment for further opening of China's futures market [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Policy - end disturbances may affect the long - term supply of live pigs. Although the fundamentals show an oversupply situation, the policy expectations offer an opportunity for arbitrage to hedge risks [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the live pig market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment boosting market confidence and a high historical standard - fat price spread. Negative factors involve a high inventory of breeding sows, high inventory of large - scale enterprises, high slaughter volume with losses in slaughter profits, and dull downstream consumption [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The strong support level for the main contract price is 13,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.94%, and its historical percentile over three years is 0.75% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory worried about inventory impairment, strategies include short - selling live pig futures (LH2511) at a recommended ratio of 20%, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans worried about price increases, strategies include buying long - term live pig contracts according to the procurement plan, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Prices**: The national average live pig spot price is 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.15%). Prices in different regions vary, with prices in Henan rising 0.02 yuan (0.15%) to 13.68 yuan/kg, and prices in other regions either stable or slightly down [8]. - **Futures Prices**: Closing prices of various live pig futures contracts on the day remained unchanged, with no price fluctuations [9]. 3.4 Spreads and Basis - **Spreads**: Spreads between different futures contracts show various changes. For example, the spread of LH01 - 03 is 1,005 yuan, up 25 yuan (2.55%), while the spread of LH03 - 05 is - 540 yuan, up 25 yuan (- 4.42%) [17][19]. - **Basis**: The basis between the Henan spot price and different futures contracts also shows different changes. For example, the basis of Henan - 01 contract is - 745 yuan, down 40 yuan (5.67%) [19].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As time passes, downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs and believe that the current price has basically fulfilled previous expectations. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton for copper prices can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The change from B structure to C structure in the copper term structure indicates that this round of copper price increase is supported by the structure and may be relatively solid [3] 3. Summary by Category Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest price of copper is 79,020 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, the strategy is to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US reaching an agreement on tariff policies with other countries, increased expectations of interest rate cuts leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals, and the upward shift of the lower support level [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and extremely high COMEX inventories caused by US tariff policy adjustments on copper [5][6] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,020 yuan/ton with no daily change; the London Copper 3M is 9,840 US dollars/ton, up 1.17% (113.5 US dollars). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.18, up 0.37% (0.03) [5] - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,150 yuan/ton, 79,120 yuan/ton, 78,950 yuan/ton, and 79,190 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes in the premiums and discounts of major spot markets are significant, such as a 33.33% increase in the Shanghai Non - ferrous electrolytic copper spot premium [7] Copper Scrap Spread and Warehouse Receipts - **Scrap Spread**: The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,064.89 yuan/ton, down 0.93%; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,491.5 yuan/ton, down 0.01%. The price advantage (含税) is - 426.61 yuan/ton, up 2.38% [9] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 26,296 tons, up 12.98% (3,021 tons). The total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [13] Copper Inventory and Import Data - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory is 155,000 tons, down 0.45% (- 700 tons). COMEX copper inventory is 265,889 tons, up 1.03% (2,709 tons) [15][17] - **Import**: The copper import profit and loss is - 75.33 yuan/ton, down 24.88% (24.95 yuan). The copper concentrate TC is - 38 US dollars/ton with no change [18]

Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report dated August 13, 2025, prepared by Nanhua's non-ferrous metals research team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Tin prices were slightly stronger on Tuesday, with limited macro influence. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the impact of the production cut at the Bisie tin mine exceeded expectations, pushing up short - term tin prices. There were no significant changes in demand [3] Key Data Summary Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 270,200 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin Main, Shanghai Tin Continuous 1, and Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 are all around 270,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M is at 33,770 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars (0.16%) daily. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.95, down 0.03 (-0.38%) [6] - **Spot**: The Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot is at 270,600 yuan/ton, up 3,600 yuan (1.35%) weekly. Other spot products such as 1 tin premium, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and various types of solder bars also showed price increases in the weekly data [12] Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss is - 15,720.3 yuan/ton, down 856.65 yuan (-5.17%) daily. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [16] Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The total tin warehouse receipts are 7,397 tons, up 71 tons (0.97%) daily. The warehouse receipts in Guangdong and Shanghai are 4,911 tons (up 64 tons, 1.32%) and 1,615 tons (up 7 tons, 0.44%) respectively [20] - **LME**: The total LME tin inventory is 1,750 tons, up 40 tons (2.34%) [20] Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin Main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, the strategy is to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin Main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and its transition from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5]

【南华观点】 南华贵金属日报:美CPI难阻9月降息 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月13日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场整体震荡，美通胀数据推升9月降息预期，但可能影响后面降息节奏，且风险偏好回升下贵 金属表现相对平淡。周边资产看，美指下跌，美债收益率短跌长升，原油下跌，比特币上涨，美股与上证上 涨，欧股震荡，南华有色金属指数偏强运行。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3399.6美元/盎司，-0.15%； 美白银2509合约收报于37.94美元/盎司，+0.4%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约776.04元/克，-1.12%；SHFE白 银2510合约收9187元/千克，-0.62%。周二晚间公布的7月美CPI环比上涨0.2%，符合预期，同比涨2.7%， 低于预期2.8%；核心CPI环比涨0.3%，符合预期，前值0.2%，同比涨3.1%，高于预期3.0%和前值2.9%，为 2月来最高水平，主要受服务业价格上涨推动。数据后交易员大幅提高了对美联储9月降息的预期，解读为7月 CPI数据整体温和。美联储传声筒Nick Timiraos 随后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 "818 Wealth Management Festival" has commenced early, with multiple securities firms extending their activities and enhancing their service offerings, reflecting a transformation in the brokerage industry's service model from short-term marketing to long-term client engagement [1][5][10]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "818 Wealth Management Festival" has been held annually since 2017, and this year, several brokerage firms, including Heng Tai Securities and Changcheng Securities, have started their activities ahead of the official date [1][3]. - Heng Tai Securities launched its event from August 11 to 22, featuring trading activities and rewards such as cash red envelopes and advisory service coupons [3]. - Changcheng Securities extended its event duration to September 14, compared to the previous year, indicating a trend of longer promotional periods among firms [3][4]. Group 2: Service Model Transformation - The brokerage industry is undergoing a service model transformation, moving from single-point marketing to a strategy focused on continuous client engagement throughout the investment cycle [5]. - The "818 Wealth Management Festival" is evolving into a dual-driven system of "event ignition + long-term operation," aiming to convert short-term marketing activities into ongoing client support [5]. Group 3: Integration of AI Technology - AI has become a central theme in this year's festival, with firms like Guotai Haitong Securities offering immersive AI interactive experiences [6]. - National Gold Securities introduced an "AI Wealth Upgrade Plan" and an investment personality assessment tool to enhance decision-making for investors [6]. - The integration of AI is seen as a competitive advantage, allowing firms to better serve clients and meet personalized investment needs [7]. Group 4: Engagement with Younger Audiences - The festival features a variety of interactive and gamified activities aimed at attracting younger investors, such as competitions and quizzes [8]. - Firms are focusing on understanding real market demands through in-depth research, making the event more relatable and engaging for clients [8]. - Minsheng Securities is launching a game-based approach to enhance user engagement and provide personalized advisory services [8][9]. Group 5: Innovation in Service Offerings - National Gold Minsheng Securities is optimizing decision-making tools with a focus on low-cost and flexible payment models, responding to market demands for simplicity and effectiveness [9]. - Firms are building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes asset allocation, strategy tools, and educational content, moving beyond traditional product sales [9]. - Guangfa Securities is innovating by creating a "scene-based full-link companion ecosystem," integrating professional advisory services with social interaction [9].

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - Today, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.82% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.36%, while the rest rose. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 1.31%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase of 0.69% [1] - All theme indices rose. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.79%, and the Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.47% [1] - In the commodity futures single - variety indices, the Soda Ash index had the largest increase of 4.76%, and the Industrial Silicon index had the largest decrease of -1.78% [1] Group 2: Index Data - Index data includes various indices such as the Energy Index NHEI, Petroleum and Chemical Index NHPCl, Coal - Chemical Index NHCCl, etc., with their respective closing prices, previous closing prices, and annualized yields [2] Group 3: Single - Variety Index Yields and Fluctuations - There is data on the yields and fluctuations of major single - variety indices, though specific details are not fully clear from the text [2] Group 4: Industry Chain and Variety Performance - In the energy and chemical sector, specific varieties' single - variety index daily price changes are given, like the yields of some products in the energy and chemical industry chain [2] - In the black sector, there is a schematic diagram of the industrial chain of some varieties and their single - variety index daily price changes [7] - In the agricultural products sector, the single - variety index daily price changes of some varieties such as palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. are presented. For example, palm oil rose 1.71%, rapeseed oil rose 2.26%, and rapeseed fell -0.70% [8]