Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][9] Core Viewpoints - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the "2025 Shaoxing City Consumption Promotion Policy," are expected to benefit cyclical sectors, particularly in the liquor and restaurant chains [5] - The policy includes subsidies for banquet consumption, which will directly stimulate demand for liquor and benefit suppliers in the banquet consumption chain [5] - The report anticipates that similar policies may be adopted in other regions, which could enhance overall consumer demand and support the recovery of liquor demand and banquet supply chain enterprises [5] - The restaurant industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle but is expected to gradually recover due to ongoing policy support, with specific recommendations for various segments including liquor, restaurant chains, beer, and yellow wine [5] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a performance of -7% over the last 12 months, compared to 2% for the CSI 300 and 11% for the Shanghai Composite Index [4] Policy Impact - The Shaoxing policy provides tiered subsidies for banquet consumption, with a maximum of 5,000 yuan for events with five tables or more and total spending exceeding 10,000 yuan [5] - The policy is expected to stimulate banquet consumption during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, benefiting liquor demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - Liquor: Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan [5] - Restaurant Chains: Hai Tian Wei Ye, Anji Food, Angel Yeast, and Qianwei Central Kitchen [5] - Beer: Qingdao Beer, China Resources Beer, and Yanjing Beer [5] - Yellow Wine: Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan [5]

| 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 603345 | 說明 | 於上海證券交易所上市 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 293,294,232 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 293,294,232 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 293,294,232 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 293,294,232 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 | 通股 | 股份類別 | 於者 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2648 | 說明 | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure and is awaiting demand improvement [1] - The company reported a revenue of 76.04 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.76 billion yuan, down 15.79% [5] - The report highlights the performance of core products and the company's strategic embrace of new retail channels [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 151.27 billion yuan, 159.14 billion yuan, 170.91 billion yuan, and 182.17 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.70%, 5.20%, 7.40%, and 6.59% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 14.85 billion yuan, 14.34 billion yuan, 15.93 billion yuan, and 17.91 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 0.46%, -3.40%, 11.09%, and 12.42% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.46 yuan, 4.30 yuan, 4.78 yuan, and 5.38 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 16.70, 17.29, 15.56, and 13.84 for the same years [3] Product and Channel Performance - The core product, prepared foods, generated revenue of 37.59 billion yuan in H1 2025, accounting for 49.4% of total revenue, with a decline of 1.94% year-on-year [5] - The revenue from dish products increased by 9.40% to 24.16 billion yuan in H1 2025, driven by higher sales of crayfish [5] - The company is actively expanding into new retail channels, achieving a revenue of 5.83 billion yuan from new retail and e-commerce, reflecting a growth of 20.92% [5] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 20.52%, down 3.39 percentage points, primarily due to rising raw material costs and increased competition [5] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 8.88%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points [5] - The report indicates a need to adjust profit forecasts due to industry demand stagnation and rising competition [5]

Summary of Anjoy Foods Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anjoy Foods Group (603345.SS, 2648.HK) - **Industry**: Food and Beverage Key Takeaways from the Conference Call 1. **Key Accounts (KAs) Strategy**: - Focus on launching frozen hotpot ingredients in KAs for the upcoming Chinese New Year peak season, following the successful launch of frozen flour and rice products in 1H25. - Management expects distributors to increase shipments despite lower gross profit margins compared to traditional channels, citing lower selling costs and potential for higher net profit margins through deeper collaboration and scaling up. - Plans to introduce 3-20 new products for major KAs such as Freshippo, RT-mart, and Pandonglai, with future opportunities identified in discount channels [1][1][1]. 2. **Overseas Development**: - Collaboration with leading chain KAs to launch approximately 9 high-margin fresh-lock products across 250 stores. - Future expansion into catering and hotel channels in Hong Kong is anticipated to yield higher pricing and margins compared to the domestic market [1][1][1]. 3. **Dingweitai Update**: - The frozen bakery business is projected to achieve high single-digit percentage growth in sales for FY25, with a target of RMB 100 million in 2024. - Management noted that 60% of its channels are emerging, including coffee shops, catering, and ready-to-drink (RTD) drinks, which are expected to create synergies with traditional distribution channels [1][1][1]. 4. **Competition Strategy**: - In 1H25, the company experienced a 1-5% pricing promotion across various categories. - Management does not foresee further deterioration in pricing into 2H25, indicating a stable competitive environment [1][1][1]. Investment Rating and Price Target - **Rating**: Buy-rated on Anjoy A/H shares. - **Price Target**: - Anjoy-A: RMB 82.0 based on a target P/E multiple of 16x applied to the 2026E EPS estimate. - Anjoy-H: HK$ 71.0, reflecting a 20% discount to the A-share multiple [2][3][3]. Risks Identified 1. Lower-than-expected growth in the frozen meal business. 2. Changes in consumer preferences. 3. Rising raw material costs. 4. Food safety concerns. 5. Pricing pressure due to intense competition in the industry [7][7][7]. Conclusion - Anjoy Foods Group is strategically positioning itself for growth through product innovation and expansion into new markets, while maintaining a cautious outlook on competition and market dynamics. The company's strong market position and growth trajectory make it a favorable investment opportunity despite identified risks.

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of fund flows in the market, suggesting a focus on low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks within the consumer staples sector [1][6] - Key stocks recommended for investment include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, all rated as "Outperform" [1] Industry Overview - In August 2025, five out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, while three sectors experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included soft drinks (+3.9%), frozen foods (+2.0%), condiments (+1.9%), dining (+0.5%), and dairy products (+0.5%). The declining sectors were mass-market and below baijiu (-3.8%), mid-to-high-end baijiu (-1.9%), and beer (-0.6%) [3][8] - The report notes that the new alcohol ban continues to impact high-ticket dining businesses and related consumer goods, leading to short-term effects on the supply chain [3][8] Price Trends - In August, the wholesale prices of mid-to-high-end baijiu generally declined, with specific price points for various products such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye showing significant year-on-year decreases [4][20][22] - The report indicates that the price index for consumer goods has seen fluctuations, with most categories experiencing increased discount rates compared to the previous month [4] Cost Analysis - The report highlights that the cost index for consumer goods has mostly increased, with specific increases noted in instant noodles (+1.30%), frozen foods (+1.15%), and soft drinks (+0.78%) [4] - The report also mentions that packaging material prices have shown mixed trends, with paper and glass prices increasing while plastic prices have decreased [4] Fund Flow Insights - As of the end of August, net inflows from Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 103.23 billion yuan, with the consumer staples sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.22% [5] - The report notes that the valuation of A-share food and beverage companies has increased, with the historical PE ratio rising to 21.6x, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5] Stock Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on heavyweight stocks with solid fundamentals, such as Yili, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai, as well as low-position stocks like Qingdao Beer and Mengniu Dairy [6] - The report warns of potential risks in the soft drink sector, predicting a weakening of fundamentals in the coming year [6]

Market Overview - On September 2, the food processing sector declined by 0.3% compared to the previous trading day, with Xianle Health leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] Stock Performance - The following stocks in the food processing sector showed notable performance: - ST Chuntian (600381) closed at 5.48, up 4.98% with a trading volume of 242,300 shares and a turnover of 132 million yuan [1] - Gai Shi Food (836826) closed at 14.23, up 4.10% with a trading volume of 157,300 shares and a turnover of 223 million yuan [1] - Huadong Co. (002840) closed at 11.39, up 3.17% with a trading volume of 348,600 shares and a turnover of 395 million yuan [1] - Xianle Health (300791) closed at 24.77, down 2.94% with a trading volume of 49,100 shares and a turnover of 123 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The food processing sector experienced a net outflow of 77.54 million yuan from institutional funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 127 million yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The beverage sector is experiencing strong seasonal sales, with cost benefits offsetting competitive pressures, leading to stable profitability [14][20]. - The dairy sector shows flat demand in the first half of 2025, with expectations for improved performance during the upcoming holiday seasons [27][33]. - The beer sector faced demand pressure in Q2 due to policy factors, but cost benefits have become prominent [3][32]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue during the off-season, with leading companies focusing on channel adjustments [4][32]. - The condiment sector shows muted demand, with a focus on adjustments and cost improvements [5][32]. - The frozen food sector continues to face operational pressures, with industry price competition affecting profitability [6][32]. Beverage Sector Summary - The soft drink segment achieved Q2 revenue growth of 22.8% year-on-year, driven by strong travel demand and new product launches [14][25]. - Major raw material prices are declining, contributing to stable profitability despite competitive pressures [20][24]. - Key companies such as Nongfu Spring and Uni-President China are recommended for their robust revenue and profit growth [14][20]. Dairy Sector Summary - The dairy sector reported a revenue increase of 3.5% in Q2, with expectations for demand recovery during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [27][28]. - Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu are highlighted for their improved profitability due to lower raw milk costs [27][33]. - The sector's gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [32][33]. Beer Sector Summary - The beer sector's Q2 revenue grew by 1.8%, with profitability supported by cost reductions [3][32]. - Companies like Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer are recommended for their strong performance in the premium segment [3][32]. Snack Food Sector Summary - The snack food sector experienced a revenue decline of 0.3% in Q2, with leading companies focusing on inventory management and channel strategies [4][32]. - Companies such as Weidong and Yanjinpuzi are recommended for their potential benefits from category and channel advantages [4][32]. Condiment Sector Summary - The condiment sector saw a revenue increase of 4.5% in Q2, with a focus on channel replenishment and cost improvements [5][32]. - Companies like Haitian Flavoring and Angel Yeast are highlighted for their strong market positions [5][32]. Frozen Food Sector Summary - The frozen food sector reported a revenue increase of 2.6% in Q2, but profitability is under pressure due to intense competition [6][32]. - Companies such as Anjijia and Lihai Foods are recommended for their potential recovery in the upcoming seasons [6][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in total revenue of 0.80% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 76.04 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.79% to 6.76 billion yuan [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 40.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.74% to 2.81 billion yuan [1][2] - The company is shifting its growth strategy from channel-driven to product-driven, focusing on new product launches and customization for major supermarkets [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from frozen dishes grew significantly by 26.1%, primarily driven by the contribution of crayfish products, while revenue from frozen prepared foods slightly declined by 1.4% [2] - The overall gross margin in Q2 2025 was 18.0%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising raw material costs and increased promotional efforts due to industry competition [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 13.9 billion yuan, 15.1 billion yuan, and 16.7 billion yuan, representing reductions of 13.3%, 14.5%, and 14.7% respectively from previous estimates [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 4.17 yuan, 4.54 yuan, and 5.02 yuan [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively embracing the trend of customization for major supermarkets and has seen positive results in new retail channels such as Hema and JD.com [3] - The upcoming peak season for frozen foods is anticipated to contribute positively to revenue, with new products like grilled sausages and innovative dumplings expected to drive growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Foods, a leading player in the domestic frozen food industry, reported a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit, highlighting the challenges and opportunities the company faces in the current market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Anjiu Foods achieved an operating income of 7.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 676 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 15.79% [1]. - This marks the first time since its listing that Anjiu Foods has recorded a decline in net profit in its interim report, with a double-digit drop intensifying the company's profit pressure [1]. - The first quarter saw a revenue decline of 4.13% and a net profit drop of 10.01%, while the second quarter showed a revenue recovery but further deterioration in profitability, with net profit declining over 20% both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The increase in raw material prices, particularly for key ingredients like crayfish and fish paste, was a significant factor affecting Anjiu's performance, leading to a 5.29% increase in operating costs [1]. - Consequently, the company's gross profit decreased by 13.5%, and the gross margin fell by 3.39 percentage points [1]. - Intense market competition has compelled Anjiu to increase promotional efforts, adversely impacting its gross margin [1]. Expense Management - Despite the pressure on profitability, Anjiu demonstrated a degree of stability in expense control, with both sales and management expenses declining in the first half of the year due to reduced advertising, promotional costs, and a decrease in share-based payment expenses [2]. - The company maintained a substantial dividend policy, proposing a mid-term dividend of 473 million yuan, which accounts for 70.02% of the current net profit [2]. Business Structure and Growth Areas - Anjiu's food business exhibited a clear divergence, with prepared dishes (frozen dishes) being the only category to achieve growth, generating 2.416 billion yuan in sales, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [2]. - Other major categories, such as frozen prepared foods and frozen noodle products, experienced sales declines, with frozen prepared foods down 1.94% and frozen noodle products down 3.89% [2]. - The growth rate of prepared dishes, which has been a core driver of Anjiu's performance, is showing signs of slowing down, and the lack of national standards for prepared dishes is seen as a constraint on development [2]. International Strategy - Anjiu successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July, becoming a dual-listed company, but its overseas business has not yet shown significant improvement, with international revenue accounting for less than 1% of total revenue in the first half of the year [4]. - The company faces the challenge of finding new growth points to alleviate profit pressure, and how it adjusts its business structure, enhances profitability, and accelerates internationalization will be key areas of market focus [4].

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a decline in gross margin in Q2 due to rising costs of key raw materials and increased manufacturing expenses, alongside heightened promotional efforts to maintain market position [1] Group 1: Reasons for Gross Margin Decline - Significant year-on-year increase in costs of key raw materials such as crayfish and fresh fish [1] - Rise in manufacturing expenses due to increased depreciation and costs associated with the commissioning and renovation of certain workshops [1] - Increased promotional activities to strengthen market position and enhance market share in response to industry competition [1] Group 2: Strategic Responses - Company plans to continue organizational restructuring and optimize management practices to improve management efficiency and supply chain effectiveness [1] - Ongoing efforts in group purchasing through bidding processes to achieve procurement prices below the average market price, aimed at effectively controlling procurement costs and enhancing operational quality and profitability [1]