Investment Rating - The report rates the building materials industry as "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The cement industry is showing a clear trend of recovery, with the average net profit per ton for A-share listed companies in 2024 expected to be 13.7 CNY, nearing historical lows from 2015. The willingness of cement companies to maintain profit margins is increasing, and with the gradual decline in coal costs, there is significant potential for profit recovery [3]. - The glass fiber sector is experiencing product structure differentiation, with higher price elasticity in mid-to-high-end products. Despite a slight decline in prices for some products, leading companies are benefiting from their product mix, leading to improved profitability [3]. - The consumer building materials sector is seeing a divergence in performance, with strong results expected in segments like coatings, which have a high retail value and renovation ratio. Companies like Sanke Tree and Keda Manufacturing are projected to show significant year-on-year profit growth [3]. - The glass sector is facing mixed results, with photovoltaic glass prices initially rising but then falling as installation policies change. The flat glass market continues to face pressure, with many small to medium enterprises entering negative profit margins [3]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry is in its third quarter of recovery, with a significant reduction in excess clinker capacity expected by the end of 2025. Current measures have already led to the exit of 45.09 million tons of clinker capacity [3]. - Key companies to watch include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tianshan Cement, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [3]. Glass Fiber Industry - The price of direct yarn has shown a slight decline, but leading companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology are expected to report significant improvements in profitability due to their focus on high-end products [3]. - The demand for specialty glass fiber products remains strong, benefiting companies with a higher proportion of these products in their portfolios [3]. Consumer Building Materials - The coatings segment is expected to perform well, with companies like Sanke Tree and Keda Manufacturing showing impressive profit growth. The overall market is shifting towards price recovery strategies [3]. - The renovation market in regions like Africa and South America is also expected to contribute positively to the performance of consumer building materials [3]. Glass Sector - Photovoltaic glass prices have fluctuated, and while there was a recovery, the market needs to be monitored closely as installation policies evolve. The flat glass market continues to face challenges, with many companies struggling to maintain profitability [3]. - Companies with cost advantages, such as Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, are recommended for observation due to their potential resilience in the current market [3].

证券代码：603737 证券简称：三棵树 公告编号：2025-048 三棵树涂料股份有限公司 关于为子公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | | 被担保人名称 | | 福建省三棵树新材料有限公司 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本次担保金额 | 人民币 | 3,000 万元 | | 担保对象 | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | 人民币 | 万元 88,846.36 | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | 是 | | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | 否 | | 累计担保情况 | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（万元） | 0 | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股子 公司对外担保总额（万元） | | | （经公司 年年度股东大会审议 2024 | 985,000 | | 通过的对外担保总额） | | | 对外担保总额占上市公司最近一期 经审计净资产的比例（%） | 366.72 | | | √对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry, indicating an expectation of performance that is stronger than the market benchmark index by more than 5% [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that while the real estate sector continues to face pressure, the impact on the building materials sector's valuation is limited, and there is potential demand release from urban renewal initiatives [4][9]. - Investors are becoming desensitized to the declining demand from the real estate sector and are increasingly focused on the potential for stabilization measures and urban renewal policies to drive demand [9]. - The political emphasis on urban renewal is expected to enhance demand for certain building materials, such as pipes, coatings, and waterproofing products [9]. - Companies that have shown operational improvements and are positioned in favorable market segments are likely to benefit from future growth opportunities, with a specific recommendation to pay attention to the leading paint company, Sankeshu (三棵树) [4][9]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Impact - The real estate sector's demand for building materials remains under pressure, with new construction area down by 20% year-on-year and completed area down by 14.8% in the first half of 2025 [9]. - Despite the ongoing downturn, investor sentiment is shifting towards expectations of policy support to stabilize the market [9]. Urban Renewal Initiatives - Recent government policies emphasize the importance of urban renewal, which is expected to become a key focus for local governments and could stimulate demand for specific building materials [9]. - The central government's initiatives aim to establish sustainable urban renewal models and accelerate the transformation of urban spaces [9]. Company Performance - Some companies are emerging from challenging periods with improved operations, exemplified by Sankeshu's projected net profit increase of 190% to 290.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [9]. - The report indicates that if stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market are implemented, companies that have already improved their operations may see further benefits [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector [6] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials sector [6] Core Insights - The transition from rapid urbanization to stable development in China indicates a shift from large-scale expansion to stock quality improvement, impacting the construction and building materials industry [1][2] - Urban renewal is identified as a key focus area, with significant investment opportunities in infrastructure upgrades, consumer-oriented building materials, and smart urban operations [2][5] - The integration of urban planning and design is emphasized, requiring higher capabilities from architectural firms to enhance urban living experiences [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to concentrate on modern urban systems and urban renewal, with a focus on key projects that align with national priorities [4] Summary by Sections Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - Urban renewal is highlighted as a critical strategy, with an estimated investment demand of approximately 4 trillion yuan for the renovation of nearly 600,000 kilometers of urban pipelines over the next five years [2] - The demand for consumer-oriented infrastructure and renovation of existing properties is projected to increase the market share of building materials like coatings [2] Architectural Design and Planning - The report notes a shift towards integrated urban planning that enhances the capacity to support population and economic growth, which will elevate the requirements for architectural design firms [3] Infrastructure Investment Focus - The report outlines a strategic focus on infrastructure that supports modern urban systems, including transportation, energy, and water management, which are expected to maintain a favorable investment climate [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from urban renewal and infrastructure projects, including leading firms in construction design and smart urban operations [5] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China State Construction, Tunnel Corporation, and Three Trees, with target prices and buy ratings provided [8][9]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **consumption building materials industry** and its performance in 2024, highlighting a **7.2% year-on-year decline** in revenue for the sector [1] - The **real estate demand** remains weak, impacting the consumption building materials sector, which has seen continuous revenue pressure over the past few quarters [1] Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Trends**: The revenue growth for the consumption building materials sector is expected to decline in 2024, with quarterly comparisons showing fluctuations: **0.2% growth**, **5.3% decline**, **10.7% decline**, **10.9% decline**, and **5.7% decline** from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 [1] - **Profitability Issues**: The industry faces challenges such as **declining gross margins** due to reduced demand and increased expense ratios. Some companies have reported increased impairments on goodwill and assets [2] - **Improvement in Profitability**: In Q1 2024, some companies managed to stabilize and improve profitability through better gross margins and expense control, with half of the consumption building materials companies reporting year-on-year gross margin increases [2] - **Net Profit Performance**: Among 26 analyzed companies, **10 reported year-on-year net profit increases**, and **9 showed improvements in net profit margins** both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, particularly in waterproofing and coating sectors [3] - **Market Resilience**: Despite the downturn in new housing demand, the sector shows resilience supported by the high demand for second-hand housing, which could lead to revenue growth if new housing demand stabilizes [4] Additional Insights - **Future Growth Potential**: Companies with strong brand and channel capabilities are expected to have significant growth potential. Key players mentioned include **Sanhe Tree, Tubaobao, Beixing Building Materials, and others** [5] - **Cement Industry Outlook**: The cement sector is projected to see a bottoming out in Q1 2024, with expectations of gradual improvement in profitability throughout the year. The industry experienced a **35% year-on-year decline** in scale in 2024 [5] - **Price Trends**: Cement prices are expected to rise after a period of decline, with a **1.4% year-on-year drop** in demand noted in Q1 2024, but a recovery is anticipated post-Chinese New Year [6] - **Cost Management**: The decline in coal prices is expected to stabilize industry profitability, with a projected **6% year-on-year decline** in cement demand for 2025 [7] - **Investment and Dividends**: Companies with low cash flow and stable investment returns, such as **Tapai Group and Ningxia Building Materials**, are highlighted for their significant profit contributions [8] Conclusion - The consumption building materials and cement industries are navigating through challenging market conditions, with signs of potential recovery in profitability and demand stabilization. Key players are expected to leverage their market positions for future growth opportunities.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The glass fiber industry is expected to perform well, with strong earnings forecasts for companies like China National Materials and China Jushi, driven by wind power demand and AI applications [6][10] - The cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery in demand [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [10] Summary by Sections Glass Fiber - The mid-year earnings forecast for glass fiber is optimistic, with China National Materials expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 670-830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186-254% [6] - China Jushi's net profit is projected to be around 1.65-1.70 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 163-171% [6] - The demand for ordinary glass fiber remains under pressure, while special electronic fabrics are experiencing accelerated growth due to the AI wave [6][10] Cement - Cement prices have continued to decline, with average prices at 352.74 yuan per ton, down 0.65 yuan month-on-month and 45.32 yuan year-on-year [27] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions is 43%, remaining stable month-on-month but down 3 percentage points year-on-year [27] - There are plans for price increases in certain regions as prices approach bottom levels [27] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices are stable, with slight increases in some areas, and overall demand remains cautious [9][41] - The production capacity utilization rate for the float glass industry is at 82.09%, with a total of 283 production lines [9] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 5.734 million weight boxes, down 97,000 weight boxes month-on-month [9][41] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, highlighting companies like China National Materials and Keda Manufacturing as key players [10] - It also suggests that the demand for building materials is expected to rise, particularly in the renovation sector, benefiting companies with strong business models [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chanhen (002895 CH), Yuntianhua (600096 CH), and NHU (002001 CH), while Skshu (603737 CH) and Yuhong (002271 CH) are rated "Hold" [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The phosphate sector is experiencing strong performance, with companies like NHU expecting a profit increase of 50-70% in 1H25, driven by resilient agricultural demand and rising prices [3]. - Chanhen and Yuntianhua are highlighted as top picks due to their earnings momentum and robust dividend profiles, with expected earnings growth of over 40% year-on-year for Chanhen in 2Q and around 10% for Yuntianhua [3][8]. - The report notes potential catalysts for growth, including rising fertilizer export prices and elevated phosphate rock prices during the peak planting season [3]. Summary by Sections Phosphate Sector - Phosphate companies are expected to lead the sector, with Chanhen and Yuntianhua showing strong earnings growth and dividend yields exceeding 6% in 2025 [3][8]. - NHU's profit guidance indicates overall sector strength, with a projected increase of 50-70% [3]. Building Materials - Skshu has issued positive profit guidance for 2Q, projecting earnings growth of 69-118% year-on-year, but the report maintains a "Hold" rating due to the growth being largely priced in [4]. - Yuhong is expected to face ongoing weakness in earnings due to challenges in new housing and engineering construction [4]. Commodity Chemicals - Satellite Chemical is facing headwinds with expected earnings declines due to turbulence in ethane/propane imports and operational risks [5]. - Wanhua and LB Group are also under pressure from anti-dumping duties affecting their core products, leading to a negative outlook for their 2Q earnings [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 53.19, based on a 40x PE for 2026 [1][6]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from incremental to stock demand in the domestic market, focusing on three new retail formats to enhance brand strength and drive sustainable revenue growth [1][14]. - The company is expected to see a profit margin inflection point and operational performance elasticity due to steady market share gains in the small B and C-end markets, alongside improved product and channel offerings [1][14]. Summary by Sections Retail Business - The company is targeting a total home decoration demand area of approximately 1.7 billion square meters from 2024 to 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% for stock renovation demand, leading to a retail paint market exceeding RMB 60 billion annually [2][14]. - The company's retail market share is projected to reach about 7.9% in 2024, indicating significant room for growth compared to competitors [2][14]. Engineering Coatings - The company has shifted its channel strategy towards engineering distribution, with small B distribution revenue maintaining steady growth at a CAGR of 13.1% from 2020 to 2024, despite a decline in large B direct sales [3][16]. - The engineering coatings market is estimated to be around RMB 50-60 billion annually, with the company's market share expected to stabilize around 13% [3][16]. Market Positioning - The company is evolving from a single paint manufacturer to a comprehensive service provider, integrating paint, consulting, and construction services, which is expected to become a new growth driver [4][15]. - The company has established a solid position in the engineering market, with a stable market share and improved accounts receivable turnover, indicating a controlled risk environment [14][16]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 7.8 billion, RMB 9.8 billion, and RMB 12.1 billion, respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 54.0% [5][14]. - The target price of RMB 53.19 is based on a 40x PE for 2026, with the company expected to benefit from the rapid replication of new business formats and reduced impairment risks [5][14].

Group 1: Special Electronic Fabrics - The demand for M8/M9 and second-generation/Q fabrics is expected to increase significantly, with high barriers to entry and few players in the market, leading to a prolonged period of prosperity [1] - The supply-demand dynamics for first-generation fabrics are anticipated to be better than market expectations [1] - Low CTE electronic fabrics continue to face shortages, with recommendations for Zhongcai Technology and attention to Honghe Technology [1] Group 2: Cement Industry - Cement stock configurations are becoming increasingly cost-effective, with negative factors already fully priced in; the industry is expected to maintain a bottom line [1] - Recommendations include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with attention to China National Building Material and other companies [1][4] - National cement market prices have shown a slight decline of 0.4%, with regional price drops of 10-20 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Glass Fiber Industry - The industry is entering a new normal, with stable prices for electronic yarn and a gradual recovery in profitability [5] - The main transaction price for 2400tex non-alkali yarn is between 3300-3700 yuan/ton, while electronic yarn prices remain stable at 8800-9200 yuan/ton [5] - Recommendations include leading companies such as China Jushi, Zhongcai Technology, and Changhai Co., with attention to International Composite Materials and Shandong Glass Fiber [5] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Glass - The upgrade of borosilicate glass is accelerating, with a favorable competitive landscape for molded bottles [6] - Recommendations focus on Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, which is expected to see significant growth due to product upgrades and cost reductions [6] Group 5: Safety Building Materials - Qingniao Fire Protection is highlighted as a leading player with strong growth potential due to its comprehensive competitive advantages [10] - Zhenan Technology is expected to benefit from legislation opening up a significant market space for building isolation [10] - Zhizhi New Materials is positioned to increase its market share domestically and expand overseas, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to lead to significant improvements in the fundamentals of the real estate chain. Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a special action plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry, aiming to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, with a target of reducing comprehensive energy consumption per unit product by 3.7% compared to 2020 [3] - The "equal tariff" policy is expected to benefit fiberglass leaders with overseas production bases, allowing them to raise prices and consolidate profitability [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index rose by 3.34% in the week from July 7 to July 11, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.52 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index increased by 6.41%, while the construction materials index rose by 6.60%, indicating a slight outperformance of 0.18 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index increased by 15.62%, and the construction materials index rose by 15.80%, also showing a slight outperformance of 0.18 percentage points [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 11, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 282.89 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.48% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio was 65.89%, down 2.29 percentage points [6][23][24] - The price of cement varied by region, with notable declines in Northeast (-4.76%), North China (-2.33%), East China (-2.98%), South China (-5.74%), Central China (-3.41%), and Southwest (-4.93%) regions [23][29] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass as of July 11, 2025, was 1205.63 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.17%. The average price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 116.02 CNY/weight box [6][71][78] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 970,000 weight boxes nationwide, a decline of 1.66% [73][74] Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4100 CNY/ton, with flexible pricing based on regional differences [6] Consumer Building Materials - As of July 11, 2025, the price of crude oil was 70.63 USD/barrel, down 0.39% week-on-week. The price of asphalt was 4570 CNY/ton, up 1.11% week-on-week [6]