顾伟拥有超20年的保险资管、公募基金、券商资管从业经验。对于券商资管的发展，顾伟提出明确路 径：应充分发挥在固收、FOF、衍生品等领域的优势，以强大的中央资产配置投研体系为基础，构建多 策略平台，通过组合管理有效提升产品和策略的风险后收益，即实现单位风险收益最大化或单位收益风 险最小化；同时通过深入有效的资产负债管理提升客户体验，最终实现券商资管的跨越式发展。 转自：证券时报 人民财讯11月19日电，11月19日，第十九届深圳国际金融博览会开幕，"2025中国金融机构年会暨中国 证券业资产管理高峰论坛"同步举行。申万宏源资管首席投资官顾伟表示，资管行业未来的目标是提供 更好用户体验的产品，共同开拓百万亿居民储蓄的增量市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is entering a new cycle of stable profitability, with long-term capital inflows ongoing, and a positive outlook for banks is emphasized [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The banking sector has transitioned from a "broken net" state to a deep valuation pressure, currently at approximately 0.7 times price-to-book (PB) ratio, with previous lows at 0.49 times PB [1]. - The current environment of low interest rates is driving capital towards dividend-paying sectors, with the banking index's dividend yield at about 4.3%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield [2]. - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is increasingly allocated to banks, with potential inflows estimated at around 600 billion yuan if 40% of new funds are allocated to banks [2]. Group 2: Expected Changes in Banking Fundamentals - The central bank aims to support banks in stabilizing net interest margins, which may lead to a slight year-on-year increase in interest margins in 2026 [3]. - The importance of high provisions is highlighted, as banks face narrowing space for balancing risk digestion and profit replenishment, focusing on banks with low non-performing loans and high provision ratios [3]. - Some smaller banks may face revenue growth challenges due to high base pressures in their capital market businesses, impacting their non-interest income [3]. - Capital adequacy will become a focal point, with banks that have strong internal capital and financial stability being better positioned for stable lending and dividends [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - If the macro environment in 2026 sees a gradual recovery in Producer Price Index (PPI) and marginal increases in long-term interest rates, it will create favorable operating conditions for banks [4]. - Even under economic pressure, banks are expected to maintain clear risk thresholds and stable dividend expectations, making them attractive dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [4].

Group 1: Oil and Gas Exploration - The supply of oil is expected to slow down, with Brent crude oil prices projected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel by 2026 [2] - OPEC+ is expected to slow down its production increase, while non-OPEC production is anticipated to decline significantly, with shale oil production expected to peak [2] - Global GDP growth is projected at approximately 3.1% in 2026, leading to a slowdown in oil demand growth [2] Group 2: Refining Industry - The refining sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to global supply contraction and domestic policies promoting efficiency [3] - New refining capacity additions are nearing completion, but there will still be projects focused on increasing chemical production [3] - The overall refining sector is expected to have reached a bottom in terms of profitability, with potential for upward elasticity in the future [3] Group 3: Polyester Industry - The polyester industry is anticipated to experience a significant recovery in profitability due to limited new investments and coordinated production cuts by leading companies [4] - The capital expenditure growth rate for PTA is expected to slow down, with no new capacity expected to be released in 2026 [4] - The demand for polyester products is expected to improve gradually, contributing to a positive outlook for the industry [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The tightening supply-demand dynamics in the polyester sector suggest an improvement in profitability, with recommendations for quality companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [5] - The refining sector is expected to benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages for leading companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5] - The offshore oil service sector is projected to maintain high profitability, with recommendations for companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the new opportunities in investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, driven by a new factor system, a restructured institutional framework, and an innovative service system in the capital market [1]. Group 1: New Factor System - The new factor system, represented by talent and new assets, is becoming a new driving force for China's economic growth. The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of technological innovation and original breakthroughs [2]. - Accumulation of technological factors will enable breakthroughs in future industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, embodied intelligence, and 6G mobile communication [2]. - Data factors will drive economic growth by transforming consumption channels and habits, leading to new consumption patterns such as service consumption, emotional consumption, and integrated consumption [2]. Group 2: New Institutional Framework - The capital market is expected to enhance its quality and capacity under the guidance of policies aimed at activating the market and coordinating investment and financing functions [3]. - Reforms in the capital market's basic systems will significantly improve market inclusiveness and adaptability, with a focus on deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange [3]. - The formation of a healthy market ecosystem will enhance the attractiveness of the Chinese market, promoting mutual constraints and cooperation among institutional investors, intermediaries, listed companies, and retail investors [3]. Group 3: New Service System - The company is accelerating reforms in its organizational structure, management model, and business system to adapt to changes in the economic landscape, focusing on a comprehensive service system [4]. - In financing services, the company is developing diversified service solutions that encompass venture capital, IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, refinancing, asset securitization, ESG, and strategic consulting [4]. - The investment service aims to meet diverse asset allocation needs of investors with a robust product offering, while trading services are enhancing liquidity support through innovative products like OTC derivatives, market making, ETFs, and carbon finance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant structural changes in both company and investor composition, suggesting a potential systemic uplift in valuations, with the equity risk premium (ERP) likely to decline in the medium to long term [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 29.15% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 32.23% in the first ten months of the year, indicating a bullish market [2]. - The current market performance is primarily driven by valuation expansion, yet the overall valuation remains relatively low compared to global peers [2]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - There has been a continuous upward revision in earnings expectations for many companies, reflecting a positive outlook for corporate profitability [2]. - In a neutral scenario, the potential return for the Hang Seng Index next year is estimated at approximately 22.92%, with an optimistic scenario reaching up to 33.83% [2]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The industry and investor structures in the Hong Kong market have undergone profound changes, with the technology sector's market capitalization and trading volume surpassing that of traditional sectors over the past decade [4]. - The current ERP in the Hong Kong market is around 5%, a low level not seen since early 2018, indicating potential for valuation uplift [3]. Group 4: Offshore Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market's offshore characteristics lead to a higher volatility in ERP compared to other major global markets, with historical lower bounds around 4% [4][5]. - The proportion of trading through the Stock Connect program is approximately 25%-30%, which is on an upward trend, indicating a shift towards reducing the offshore discount and aligning valuations with global markets [5].

Group 1: Overall Industry Outlook - The automotive industry is entering a new growth phase driven by mid-to-high-end vehicle replacements and overseas expansion, with limited impact from policy changes expected next year [1] - The demand for vehicles is anticipated to recover significantly, particularly in the mid-to-high-end segments, due to changes in consumer habits, capabilities, and product competitiveness compared to eight years ago [1] - The global sales of Chinese smart electric vehicles are expected to approach 10 million units in five years, indicating a strong international market potential [1] Group 2: Automotive Components - Automotive components represent a typical example of China's "high-end manufacturing," characterized by scale effects, cost advantages, and technological superiority [2] - New applications such as robotics and low-altitude economy are becoming essential areas for component manufacturers, with a significant focus on companies like Tesla and Zhiyuan [2] - The globalization strategy is seen as a long-term growth path for leading automotive component companies, particularly with an emphasis on European markets by 2026 [2] Group 3: AI Integration - The automotive industry is undergoing dual transformations of electrification and AI integration, with AI expected to play a crucial role in the physical world [3] - AICar is projected to become a super intelligent entity by integrating four major intelligent systems: driving, cabin, chassis, and power [3] - The future will likely see technology spillover from smart vehicles to robotics, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a positive trend, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and ongoing reforms, which are expected to enhance banks' operational stability and their ability to support high-quality economic development [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the CSI Bank Index (399986) rose by 1.14%, while the E Fund Bank ETF (516310) increased by 1.24%, with a transaction volume of 52.8 million yuan [1]. - Over the past three months, the E Fund Bank ETF (516310) has seen an increase in scale by 808 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Context - The central bank emphasizes a scientific approach to financial total indicators and maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship, which is beneficial for banks' stable operations and their alignment with economic development [1]. - The introduction of the 14th Five-Year Plan is driving transformation in the banking sector, with improvements in net profits observed in the third quarter [1]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Research, the banking sector is at the beginning of a long-term recovery, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio around 0.7 times, indicating a solid foundation for valuation uplift [1]. - The current low interest rate environment is encouraging long-term capital, such as insurance funds, to increase allocations to high-dividend assets, making bank stocks attractive [1]. - Public fund holdings have dropped to the lowest level in nearly a decade, suggesting significant room for recovery [1]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the central bank aims to support banks in stabilizing net interest margins, which could lead to positive growth in net interest income, especially for banks with ample provisions and strong internal capital capabilities [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the AI revolution is still in its early stages, and the potential for a "golden era" in AI capital may follow the current bubble phase [1][3] - The article discusses the divergence in asset prices since the emergence of ChatGPT, highlighting a conflict between strong expectations for the AI industry and weak economic realities [1] - It predicts that by 2025, the U.S. economy will experience a "soft landing," with a continued trend of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, while both risk and safe-haven assets will perform well [1][2] Group 2 - In 2025, AI capital expenditure is expected to become a new pillar of the U.S. economy, although there are concerns about cash flow pressures and debt financing needs for representative companies [3] - The article outlines that the monetary policy cycles in the U.S., Europe, and Japan will diverge, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to cut rates twice, while Japan may restart rate hikes depending on internal political stability [2] - It highlights the fiscal expansion expected in the U.S., Germany, and Japan, with respective increases in deficit rates of +1.0%, +0.84%, and +0.77%, and the impact on GDP growth from fiscal expansion is ranked as follows: Germany +0.63%, U.S. +0.6%, Japan +0.25%, and Eurozone +0.2% [2]

Group 1 - The core concern in the market regarding the "AI bubble" is the gap between the time it takes for new technologies to generate economic scale effects and the optimistic expectations of capital market returns from these technologies [2][3] - Since 2023, the current AI market in the US has been ongoing for three years, primarily focusing on valuation increases, with widespread growth in AI infrastructure and profitable AI applications [1][3] - By 2025, the contribution of valuations from AI-related industries (technology, communication) is expected to be limited, with increased reliance on debt financing for investments, leading to a more stringent market evaluation of returns on investment (ROI) in the AI sector [1][5] Group 2 - Hard constraints affecting the AI sector often lead to periodic adjustments in stock prices, with the "Buy the Dip" strategy still showing effectiveness in the US market [3] - Since 2023, each round of adjustment in the AI sector has been triggered by macro liquidity tightening and concerns over computing power, algorithms, and electricity [3][4] - The soft constraints, when they manifest, could trigger a systemic bubble burst, necessitating a strategic reduction in positions based on ROI indicators [4][5] Group 3 - The cost of inference for AI models has been decreasing, while the training costs for cutting-edge AI models are rising significantly, indicating a divergence in cost dynamics [4] - The penetration rate of AI in US enterprises is currently around 10%, with higher rates in information-intensive sectors, and is expected to rise in the next six months [4][5] - The total investment commitment for AI by foreign and US companies is projected to be approximately $3.8 trillion by 2028, with ROI sensitivity to GPU depreciation periods being a critical factor [4][5] Group 4 - Under a neutral assumption, the risk of soft constraints in AI by 2026 is manageable, with a focus on the penetration rate of B-end enterprises and the stability of cash flows [5] - In an optimistic scenario, the acceleration of B-end enterprise penetration and high growth in AI infrastructure capital expenditures (capex) could lead to increased profitability for cloud companies [5] - In a pessimistic scenario, inflation pressures could resurface in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to valuation corrections if AI application costs do not decrease sufficiently [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming year 2026 is anticipated to be a year of comprehensive reform and development, with new driving forces for economic growth emerging, particularly in technology and innovation [1][2][3]. Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, which is expected to drive new productivity in the economy [2]. - The accumulation of technological factors is projected to lead to breakthroughs in future industries such as AI, biomedicine, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communications [2]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to strengthen under the reform framework, with a notable emphasis on structural economic recovery in 2026 [3]. A-Share Market Strategy - A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of high valuation and potential adjustment, particularly in the AI sector, but a significant upward trend is not yet concluded [6][7]. - A small rebound in technology growth is expected before the spring of 2026, with a potential comprehensive market rally in the second half of the year [7]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include recovery trades in basic chemicals and industrial metals, technology industry trends in humanoid robots and energy storage, and enhanced manufacturing influence [7]. Consumer and Investment Trends - The nominal GDP is expected to improve, leading to better profitability and a recovery in investment growth, with fixed asset investment projected to return to around 3% [4]. - Consumer retail growth is anticipated to be 4.5% in 2026, with service sector retail expected to perform better at 5.5% [3]. External Demand - Export resilience is expected to remain strong, with a narrowing decline in exports to the U.S. and an increase in trade with non-U.S. regions [5].