Key Points - The core view is that in the heavy truck sector, exports will surpass domestic sales by 2026, with electric and natural gas vehicles outpacing diesel trucks, focusing on export leaders [2][3][12] - For 2025, domestic sales are expected to reach 814,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, while exports are projected at 332,000 units, up 14.3%, leading to a total wholesale volume of 1,143,000 units, reflecting a 26.7% increase [2][19] - The natural demand for heavy trucks is stabilizing, with an estimated 646,000 units driven by natural demand in 2025, indicating that policy support is not the sole driver of growth [2][19] - By 2026, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is expected to rise to 30%-35%, with natural gas trucks also gaining traction as gas prices decline and oil prices stabilize [3][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on export leaders such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck H), engine leaders like Weichai Power, and companies with potential in both export and domestic sales like China National Heavy Duty Truck A, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and CIMC Vehicles [3][12] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected 3% increase in domestic sales and a 30% increase in exports [5][13] - The key players in the bus sector include Yutong and King Long, which are expected to benefit from the dual drivers of domestic recovery and sustained overseas demand [6][13] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is witnessing a decline in domestic sales but a significant increase in exports, particularly for large-displacement motorcycles, which are expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2026 [8][14] - The total motorcycle sales for 2026 are projected to reach 19.38 million units, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to account for 1.26 million units [8][14] - Investment recommendations in the motorcycle sector favor leading companies such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [9][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][18]. Core Insights - The continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy is expected to bolster demand resilience in 2026, although the marginal stimulus from subsidies is diminishing, leading to increased competition among domestic automakers [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities within the industry, particularly for companies that can differentiate their products [15][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Market Review - The automotive index remained flat over the past week, with the new energy vehicle index down by 1% [2][8]. - Year-to-date, the automotive index has increased by 19%, while the new energy vehicle index has only risen by 1% [9][10]. 2. Vehicle Trade-in Policy Continuation - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to boost consumption and investment efficiency, extending the "two new" policies, which include large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [15]. - From January to November 2025, the trade-in policy facilitated over 11.2 million vehicle exchanges [15]. 3. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high cost-performance ratios and emerging technologies, recommending leading firms such as Dechang Motor Holdings and Haoneng Co [18]. - It highlights the competitive pressure in the passenger vehicle market and recommends companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor for their differentiated product strategies [18]. - The report also identifies opportunities in the data center power supply sector, recommending Weichai Power and Yuchai International [18]. 4. Key Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, all rated as "Overweight" [19]. - Notable recommendations include BYD, which has a projected EPS of 3.80 for 2025, and Great Wall Motors, with an EPS of 1.53 for the same year [19].

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power showcases its strong technical capabilities and precise market understanding by launching multiple new commercial vehicle power products at the 2026 Business Conference, aimed at different operational scenarios [1][20]. Group 1: New Engine Products - Weichai launched three new engines: WP2.5T, WP5H, and WP14NG, targeting key scenarios such as trunk logistics and various cargo transport needs, providing efficient, economical, and reliable power solutions [3]. - The WP14NG-4.0 engine, designed for trunk logistics, delivers a maximum power of 610 horsepower and a peak torque of 2800 Nm, excelling in power performance for complex road conditions and heavy loads [3]. - The WP5H engine, with a maximum power of 300 horsepower and a peak torque of 1100 Nm, is optimized for yellow plate cargo vehicles, ensuring high efficiency across various road conditions [5][7]. - The WP2.5T engine, with a maximum power of 190 horsepower and a peak torque of 500 Nm, offers high cost-effectiveness and reliability, making it suitable for blue plate cargo transport [9]. Group 2: Energy Efficiency and Reliability - The WP14NG-4.0 engine achieves a 6% reduction in gas consumption under high-speed conditions compared to previous models, outperforming the industry average [5]. - The WP5H engine reduces fuel consumption by 5% compared to competitors, translating to lower operational costs and increased profits for operators [7]. - The WP2.5T engine boasts a B10 lifespan of 800,000 kilometers, ensuring high reliability crucial for urban logistics [9]. Group 3: New Energy Products - Weichai demonstrates its strength in the new energy sector with a comprehensive product lineup, including power batteries and motor controllers, supporting the transition of commercial vehicles to new energy [10]. - The CTB power battery features an integrated design that enhances safety and stability while reducing weight and volume, addressing traditional battery issues [10][12]. - The WMC-L/H/B multi-in-one integrated controller, suitable for various vehicle types, enhances system reliability and efficiency, achieving a maximum efficiency of 99.2% [14]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - Weichai holds a leading position in the commercial vehicle market, with a 34% market share in heavy-duty engines and a strong presence in the gas engine sector [17]. - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to exceed 25% by 2025, marking a shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth [19]. - Weichai's strategic layout in the new energy sector includes a production capacity of 50 GWh for its new energy power industry park, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the supply chain [19].

Group 1: Commercial Vehicles - The core conclusion for heavy trucks indicates that exports will surpass domestic sales in 2026, with a focus on leading exporters [2] - In 2025, the total wholesale volume for heavy trucks is expected to reach 1.143 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, with domestic sales at 814,000 units (+35.2%) and exports at 332,000 units (+14.3%) [11][12] - The penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is projected to rise to 30%-35% in 2026, with natural gas trucks also expected to gain market share [2][11] Group 2: Buses - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected growth of 3% for domestic sales and 30% for exports [3][22] - The key players in the bus industry, such as Yutong and King Long, are anticipated to benefit from the recovery in both domestic and overseas markets [3][22] - The overall profitability of the bus sector is expected to improve, driven by the recovery in demand and the performance of leading companies [23][39] Group 3: Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to grow by 31% [4][29] - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 830,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 50% increase compared to the previous year [4][29] - Leading motorcycle manufacturers, such as Chunfeng and Longxin, are expected to benefit from the continued growth in exports and large-displacement motorcycle sales [4][30]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai has established a new path for "Chinese manufacturing" towards high-quality development, showcasing its comprehensive layout in both traditional and new energy sectors through the launch of seven new products at its 2026 business conference [1] Market Position and Growth - Weichai has achieved comprehensive growth in the commercial vehicle power market, maintaining a market share of 34% in heavy-duty engines with projected sales of 270,000 units by 2025, and leading the gas power sector with a 55% market share and sales exceeding 110,000 units [3][4] - The company has also projected a 10% year-on-year increase in light truck sales, expecting to surpass 710,000 units, and aims for a 52% market share in the bus segment with sales of 25,000 units [3] Product Development and Innovation - Weichai has achieved full coverage of 2-17L power in the commercial vehicle sector, launching the world's first diesel engine with thermal efficiency exceeding 53%, and introducing new high-power products aimed at enhancing fuel efficiency [4][6] - The company emphasizes transforming technical advantages into actual user benefits, with the NG4.0 platform expected to sell over 30,000 units by 2025, reflecting strong market trust and economic returns for truck drivers [6] New Energy Strategy - Weichai is positioning itself for future growth in the new energy sector, with plans for its new energy industrial park to generate sales exceeding 3.5 billion yuan in 2025 and a projected 170% increase in battery sales [10][12] - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix in the new energy sector, including over 100 battery products and 30 motor products, focusing on safety, durability, efficiency, and lightweight design [12] Collaboration and Industry Leadership - Weichai calls for collaboration with partners to navigate the challenges of the evolving commercial vehicle industry, emphasizing the importance of market insight, service collaboration, and data sharing [13] - The company aims to build a resilient industrial ecosystem through a complete layout of traditional and new energy products, continuous optimization of classic products, and tailored services [13]

编者按 近年来,烟台以打造绿色低碳高质量发展示范城市为远景目标,将新质生产力、绿色低碳高质量发展转化 为烟台人可感可知的日常场景。为讲述2025年烟台经济民生领域取得的卓越成绩以及烟台全力打造绿色 低碳高质量发展示范城市的亮眼举措,烟台市委网信办、齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点烟台融媒中心联合推出"网语 烟台 与新质握手"网络宣传引导活动,以具体的场景和真实的故事,连接产业进步与民间共鸣,共述一座 城的焕新之旅。 秦雪丽 杜晓丹 烟台报道 初冬的烟台,寒风凛冽。但在烟台福山新能源汽车产业园内,却是一派热火朝天的建设景象。塔吊林立,机 器轰鸣,工程车辆穿梭不息,一座现代化的产业新城正在这片曾经荒芜的土地上拔地而起。 "你看那边,潍柴弗迪项目一期已经投产；这边,中质国检、创明电池等项目也在全速推进……"站在产业 园的观景平台上,望着眼前这片充满活力的热土,纪仁鹏,这位"90后"博士,高新区福山园挂职工委委员、管 委副主任,眼中满是自豪与期待。 从荒芜之地 到新能源汽车高地 时间拨回三年之前,福山西部这片土地却是另一番模样。 2022年8月,作为烟台"菁英计划"招引人才,博士毕业的纪仁鹏来到高新区福山园,开启新能源汽车产业园 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has included Weichai Power (000338.SZ/02338.HK) in its selected list of 50 core investment targets for the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), indicating that the company has surpassed traditional cyclical attributes and aligns well with future national industrial policy directions [1][2] Group 1 - Weichai Power's strategic transformation is confirmed by its recent announcement at the 2026 Business Conference, highlighting a new development cycle during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the expected explosive growth in data center energy power [1] - The company's emerging strategic business has shown strong growth, particularly in large-bore engines for data centers, with sales increasing by 41% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and sales of engines for data centers (AIDC) skyrocketing by nearly 491% [1] - Weichai Power's expansion into the new energy sector is also contributing to incremental growth, with rapid increases in power battery sales [1] Group 2 - The successful transition of Weichai Power from a traditional heavy-duty truck power leader to high-value areas such as data center backup power, high-end large-bore engines, and SOFC is key to its classification as a "mid-cap growth + policy dividend" company [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" places high-end manufacturing and energy security at its core, suggesting that Weichai Power's diversified industrial layout, especially in AI power generation systems, is likely to continue receiving development momentum [2]

Group 1 - On December 11, a total of 33 companies were investigated by institutions, with 20 companies being surveyed by funds, including 5 companies that attracted more than 5 funds each [1] - Chaojie Co., Ltd. was the most popular, with 34 funds participating in the survey, followed by Zhishang Technology and Guanglian Aviation, which had 20 and 7 funds respectively [1] - Among the surveyed companies, 6 were from the Shenzhen Main Board, 12 from the ChiNext, 1 from the Shanghai Main Board, and 1 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, covering 9 different industries [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the surveyed companies included 2 with a market cap over 50 billion yuan, and 10 with a market cap under 1 billion yuan, such as Jiama Clothing and Mankalon [1] - In terms of market performance, 15 of the surveyed stocks increased in the last 5 days, with Chaojie Co., Ltd., Zhishang Technology, and Binglun Environment showing gains of 39.03%, 35.00%, and 30.32% respectively [1] - Conversely, 5 stocks experienced declines, with Asia Pacific Technology, Huali Group, and Changhong Meiling showing decreases of 8.74%, 7.51%, and 2.24% respectively [1] Group 3 - Among the surveyed stocks, Chaojie Co., Ltd. had a net capital inflow of 402 million yuan over the last 5 days, the highest among the surveyed companies [2] - Other companies with significant net inflows included Guanglian Aviation and Shaanxi Huada, with inflows of 155 million yuan and 144 million yuan respectively [2] - A detailed list of surveyed companies included Chaojie Co., Ltd. (34 funds, 80.65 yuan, 39.03% increase), Zhishang Technology (20 funds, 103.33 yuan, 35.00% increase), and Guanglian Aviation (7 funds, 23.75 yuan, 23.38% increase) [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338.SZ) has indicated that its large-bore engines and SOFC products can be widely applied in niche markets such as data centers [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on the application of its large-bore engines in specific sectors [1] - SOFC products are highlighted for their potential use in data centers, indicating a strategic direction towards energy-efficient solutions [1]

| | 2.公司大缸径及数据中心相关业务市场情况与公司表现 | | --- | --- | | | 今年前三季度公司 M 系列大缸径发动机销售超 7700 台，同 | | | 比增长超 30%；其中数据中心市场销售超 900 台，同比增长超 3 | | | 倍，业绩贡献持续增长。 | | | 近年来，AI 技术快速迭代驱动算力基建加速，由此推动数 | | | 据中心备用电源市场快速扩容，进而带动面向该细分领域的高 | | | 端发动机的需求井喷。公司大缸径发动机启动速度快、加载能 | | | 力强，具有更可靠、更高效及更经济的优势，并凭借稳定交付 | | | 节奏，现国内外多个地区的数据中心项目均已完成产品交付验 | | | 收，国内外市场认可度持续提升。后续，公司将积极开拓国内 | | | 外战略客户，推动市场份额持续提升。 | | | 3.分红比例后续展望 | | | 一方面，公司持续做好业务经营，提升公司业绩表现。另 | | | 一方面积极通过现金分红、股份回购等方式回报股东。除一年 | | | 两次现金分红派息外，2025 年公司开展 A 股股份回购，2025 | | | 年中期分红也进一步提升至 5 ...