Group 1 - The company is advancing the second phase expansion project of the Tibet Julong Copper Mine, which is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual ore processing capacity exceeding 100 million tons and copper production of 300,000 to 350,000 tons, making it the largest copper mine in China and the largest single copper mine to be put into production globally this century [2] - The third phase of the Julong Copper Mine project has been planned, with a potential annual production capacity of 600,000 tons if approved, further solidifying its position as a top global copper mine [2] - The company anticipates short-term fluctuations in copper prices due to U.S. trade policies and interest rate cut expectations, while long-term benefits are expected from rigid supply at the mining end and increased demand for copper from energy transition and AI applications [2] Group 2 - In resource development, the company reported smooth progress in the renewal of the mining license for the Qarhan Salt Lake, having completed key approvals such as the "Resource Verification Report," aiming to complete the renewal before the license expires [2] - Regarding the potassium fertilizer business, the company noted that under national supply guarantee policies, the state reserve auction prices remain in the range of 2,800 to 2,900 yuan per ton, with regional prices affected by logistics costs; the increase in potassium fertilizer costs in 2024 is mainly due to investments in green mining construction, but these costs are not expected to be persistent, maintaining stable costs at reasonable levels [2] Group 3 - In the lithium salt sector, the company believes that attention should be paid to the progress of high-cost capacity elimination by 2025, while benefiting from demand driven by electric vehicles, energy storage markets, and solid-state battery technological innovations, maintaining a long-term positive outlook on supply-demand dynamics [3] - The company employs a "full production and full sales" strategy for lithium carbonate sales, with prices adjusted based on real-time market dynamics [3] - The company is actively advancing the mining license approval process for the Tibet Mami Cuo Salt Lake project, having completed construction preparations and process optimization, with plans to collaborate with Longjing Environmental Protection for the construction of a supporting energy station to ensure rapid commencement after approval [3] Group 4 - The company addressed the reason for a 40 million yuan asset impairment provision in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was due to equipment impairment caused by the shutdown of the potassium fertilizer production unit, but emphasized that this impact is not expected to be persistent [4]

Group 1: Company Operations and Financial Performance - The company is actively working on the renewal of the mining license for the Chaqi Salt Lake, with key reports already approved and the process progressing smoothly [2] - The average cost of potash fertilizer has remained stable over the past three years, despite a year-on-year increase in 2024 due to investments in green mining [2] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the supply-demand dynamics of lithium salts, driven by trends in electric vehicles and energy storage [2] Group 2: Sales and Pricing Strategies - The sales strategy for lithium carbonate focuses on full production and sales, adjusting the sales pace based on market conditions and price forecasts [3] - Potash prices are influenced by national supply policies, with current auction prices ranging from CNY 2800 to CNY 2900 per ton [2] Group 3: Project Development and Future Plans - The Ma Mi Cuo project is in the process of obtaining mining permits, with groundwork already laid for construction to begin once approvals are secured [3] - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual ore processing capacity exceeding 100 million tons and copper production of 300,000 to 350,000 tons [4] - Future phases of the Jilong Copper Mine could potentially increase production capacity to 600,000 tons of copper annually, making it the largest copper mine globally [4] Group 4: Financial Adjustments and Asset Management - A CNY 40 million asset impairment in Q4 2024 was due to production adjustments and the temporary shutdown of certain potash production units, which is not expected to recur [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Cangge Mining, is a significant player in the potassium-lithium salt and copper production sectors in China, leveraging opportunities in the global energy transition and expanding its business lines to include lithium and copper production [1][2]. Group 1: Potassium Fertilizer Business - Cangge Mining began its potassium fertilizer business in 2002 and has established a leading position in the industry by integrating resources from various potassium fertilizer companies, securing mining rights over 724.35 square kilometers in the Chaharhan Salt Lake [3]. - In 2024, the company achieved a potassium chloride production of 1.07 million tons and sales of 1.04 million tons, with potassium chloride product revenue accounting for over 60% of total revenue, solidifying its market leadership [3]. - The company is advancing its potassium salt resource reserves in Laos, having signed exploration agreements with the Laotian government and planning to develop a project with an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of potassium chloride, which will double its total production capacity upon completion [3]. Group 2: Lithium Production - Cangge Mining established Cangge Lithium in 2017 and began lithium carbonate production in January 2019, achieving battery-grade standards [5][6]. - By the end of 2024, the company indirectly holds a 27% stake in Mami Cuo Mining and has completed the acquisition of a 39% stake in Guoneng Mining, which has significant lithium and potassium reserves [6]. - The company's lithium extraction process has a notable cost advantage, maintaining a production cost of 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per ton, while the average selling price of lithium carbonate in 2024 is 85,000 yuan per ton [7]. Group 3: Copper Production - Cangge Mining is the second-largest shareholder of Jilong Copper, holding a 30.78% stake, and the Jilong Copper Mine is recognized as the largest copper mine in China by registered resource volume [10]. - In 2024, Jilong Copper's production reached 166,000 tons, with expectations for significant increases following the approval of expansion projects [12]. - The company anticipates that copper prices will trend upward due to supply constraints, positioning itself to benefit from this market dynamic [15]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, Cangge Mining's revenue reached 3.25 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.58 billion yuan, driven significantly by investment returns from the copper segment [1]. - The company has implemented a second employee stock ownership plan with performance targets indicating confidence in achieving high growth in 2025 [16]. - Cangge Mining has prioritized shareholder returns, distributing 408 million yuan in cash dividends and repurchasing shares worth 300 million yuan in 2024, with total cash dividends over the past three years amounting to 7.429 billion yuan [17]. Group 5: Strategic Partnerships and ESG Initiatives - Cangge Mining announced a significant share transfer to Zijin Mining, which will become the controlling shareholder, potentially enhancing project development and operational efficiency [19]. - The company is committed to ESG principles, integrating sustainable development into its operations and actively participating in national carbon reduction strategies [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for 2024, with operating income of 3.251 billion yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.580 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [5][6] - The investment income from the company's subsidiary, Giant Dragon Copper Industry, accounted for 74.72% of the net profit, with a total investment income of 1.928 billion yuan, an increase of 48.72% year-on-year [5] - The company is actively expanding its potassium salt production and has achieved a production target of 1.073 million tons, exceeding its goal [5] - The lithium segment is progressing with projects in Tibet, with significant lithium reserves and production plans in place [5] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.251 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 37.79% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 2.580 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.56% [6] - Forecasted revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 3.036 billion yuan and 4.248 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.052 billion yuan and 5.415 billion yuan [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 44.9% in 2024 to 49.6% in 2025 [7] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute gains of 9.78%, 16.42%, and 28.35% over 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively [4]

5[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 藏格矿业(000408.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 31 日 所属行业：有色金属/能源金属 当前价格(元)：35.81 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 藏格矿业 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.78 | 16.42 | 28.35 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 11.11 | 13.85 | 30.45 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 买入（维持） 1.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：巨龙铜 业投资收益大幅增长；结则茶卡与龙 木错盐湖项目进展顺利》，2024.10.25 2.《铜行业跟踪：24Q3 降息影响定价， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 35.81 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue due to falling prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, but investment income from its stake in Jilong Copper Industry reached a new high [2][3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 3.251 billion CNY, a decrease of 37.79% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.580 billion CNY, down 24.56% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is set to change its controlling shareholder to Zijin International, which is expected to enhance resource development and operational synergy [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 927 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.98%. Net profit for the same quarter was 712 million CNY, up 57.76% year-on-year and 24.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average selling prices for potassium chloride and lithium carbonate were approximately 2,115 CNY/ton and 75,200 CNY/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 14.9% and 60.8%, respectively [2]. Investment Income - The investment income from Jilong Copper Industry was 1.928 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.7%. The copper concentrate production for the year was 166,300 tons [2]. - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual copper production capacity of 300,000 to 350,000 tons [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.028 billion CNY, 4.369 billion CNY, and 5.175 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, following the decline in 2024 [4].

藏格矿业（000408） 2024 年年报点评：Q4 钾锂销量双升，铜矿盈 利维持高位 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5226 | 3251 | 3113 | 4749 | 7987 | | 同比（%） | (36.22) | (37.79) | (4.25) | 52.58 | 68.17 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3420 | 2580 | 2725 | 3499 | 5425 | | 同比（%） | (39.52) | (24.56) | 5.64 | 28.40 | 55.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.18 | 1.64 | 1.74 | 2.23 | 3.46 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.44 | 21.79 | 20.63 | 16.07 | 10.36 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [13]. Core Views - The decline in potash and lithium prices has negatively impacted the company's performance, with a reported revenue of 3.251 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 37.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.580 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company's growth potential is significantly bolstered by the Giant Dragon Copper Mine, which contributed 1.928 billion yuan to the net profit, accounting for 74.72% of the total [5]. - Future projects in the potash and lithium sectors are progressing steadily, with significant growth potential anticipated from the Ma Mi Cuo and Laos projects [5]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 3,251 million yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year - Net profit: 2,580 million yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year - Fourth-quarter revenue: 927 million yuan, down 10.55% year-on-year, but up 64.98% quarter-on-quarter - Fourth-quarter net profit: 712 million yuan, up 57.76% year-on-year, and up 24.71% quarter-on-quarter [1][5]. - **Future Financial Projections**: - Expected revenues for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.258 billion yuan, 3.391 billion yuan, and 3.391 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to rise to 3.240 billion yuan, 5.119 billion yuan, and 5.498 billion yuan [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.64 yuan in 2024 to 3.50 yuan by 2027 [6]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 22 in 2024 to 10 by 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [6]. - The target price for the stock is set at 39.2 yuan, based on a 19 times valuation for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from three driving forces: potassium, lithium, and copper, with significant growth potential. The cost advantage in lithium extraction from salt lakes is notable, and the expansion projects for the giant dragon copper segment are progressing steadily. The copper segment shows significant earnings elasticity, and with Zijin Mining's involvement, project timelines may exceed expectations. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.93 billion, 4.97 billion, and 6.71 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 19, 11, and 8 based on the closing price on March 28 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.58 billion yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 65.0%, with a net profit of 710 million yuan, up 57.8% year-on-year and 24.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Lithium Segment - The company met its annual production target for lithium, producing 11,600 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, while sales increased by 31.7% to 13,600 tons. The average market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 was 90,000 yuan, down 64.6% year-on-year, with the company's selling price at 75,000 yuan, a decrease of 60.8% [2]. Potassium Segment - The potassium chloride production and sales reached 1.07 million and 1.04 million tons, respectively, in 2024, with a significant recovery in Q4 sales, which increased by 88.7% quarter-on-quarter. The average market price for potassium chloride was 2,519 yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year, while the company's selling price was 2,115 yuan, a decrease of 14.9% [3]. Copper Segment - The giant dragon copper segment produced 166,000 tons in 2024, with a net profit of 6.26 billion yuan, achieving a net profit per ton of approximately 38,000 yuan. The average LME copper price was 9,271 USD per ton, up 8.8% year-on-year. The company holds a 30.78% stake in the giant dragon, contributing 1.93 billion yuan in investment income in 2024 [4]. Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company announced a second employee stock ownership plan to enhance management and employee motivation, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 based on net profit growth and project milestones [5].

藏格矿业（000408.SZ）2024 年年报点评 铜矿业绩贡献再创新高，期待巨龙扩产落地 2025 年 03 月 30 日 ➢ 钾：Q4 销量大幅恢复，成本恢复正常水平。1）量：24 年氯化钾产销 107、104 万 吨，完成年度产量目标，其中 24Q4 产量 31.7 万吨，环比+35.7%，销量 33.0 万吨，环 比+88.7%，Q4 销量大幅恢复；2）价：24 年国内氯化钾市场价 2519 元，同比-14.8%， 公司 24 年氯化钾不含税销售均价 2115 元，同比-14.9%；3）本：24 年单吨生产成本 1167 元，同比+7.1%，其中 24Q4 单吨生产成本 1072 元，环比-555 元，我们预计主要 由于 Q3 盐田一次性绿色矿山投入较高，Q4 钾肥成本恢复正常。 ➢ 铜：巨龙 Q4 单吨净利约 4.1 万，投资收益亮眼。1）量：24 年巨龙铜产量 16.6 万 吨，其中 24Q4 产量 4.4 万吨，环比+8.0%；2）价&利：24 年 LME 铜均价 9271 美元/ 吨，同比+8.8%，凭借优秀的控本能力，巨龙铜业实现净利润 62.6 亿元，单吨净利约 3.8 万元，其中 24Q ...