碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货上涨，受藏格矿业旗下格尔木藏格钾肥有限公司因违规开发被责令停 产消息带动，碳酸锂期货午后大涨，主力最高涨至 69980，藏格锂业 2025 年度计 划实现碳酸锂产量 11000 吨，月产量不足 1000 吨，该产量对国内碳酸锂市场供应 整体影响有限，在国内反内卷浪潮下，该消息的信号意义大于实际意义，不过现 货市场继续受到 ...

Group 1: Financial Instruments and Market Trends - The first batch of Sci-tech Bond ETFs has been launched, increasing the total number of credit bond ETFs to 21, which will help attract more medium to long-term funds into the market [1] - Insurance companies have raised over 74 billion yuan in capital this year, indicating a sustained high demand for capital supplementation [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - The penetration rate of L2-level assisted driving in China has exceeded 50%, the highest globally, with emerging technologies like parking assistance also gaining traction [2] - The automotive industry's competitiveness is shifting from mechanical hardware to intelligence and AI, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to this new landscape [2] Group 3: Solar Industry Performance - The solar industry is facing significant challenges, with most companies in the supply chain reporting losses, highlighting a clear divergence in performance among firms [2] - Only 8 out of 30 solar companies that released half-year performance forecasts expect positive net profits, with only 2 showing year-on-year growth [2] Group 4: Swine Industry Insights - Despite a decline in pig prices, many pig farming companies are expected to report profits, driven by effective cost control measures [3] - The industry is focusing on regulating sow production capacity to stabilize prices, which may lead to increased market concentration [3] Group 5: Film Industry Performance - The summer film season has seen box office revenues surpass 3.5 billion yuan, with diverse genres and innovative themes contributing to its success [4] Group 6: AI and Robotics Innovations - A new AI framework for malaria diagnosis has achieved an accuracy rate of 96.47%, showcasing advancements in AI applications for disease control [4] - A new type of robot capable of self-growth and repair by absorbing surrounding materials has been developed, marking a significant step towards sustainable robotic systems [4] Group 7: Corporate Changes and Market Reactions - JD.com has criticized the recent "0 yuan purchase" promotions in the food delivery sector as a form of unhealthy competition [5] - Wahaha's sales have reportedly dropped significantly following legal issues faced by its chairman, raising concerns among distributors [5] - Good Products announced a significant change in its controlling shareholder, with the Wuhan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission set to become the actual controller [9] - Han's announcement of a fundraising adjustment indicates a focus on projects related to large model chip platforms and software [11] - Zongheng's actual controller's divorce has led to a significant change in shareholding structure, but control remains unchanged [11] - Gujia Home's CFO and board secretary have resigned, with new appointments made to fill these roles [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares continue to feature sector rotation with multiple hotspots, and the index is rising. It remains in a pattern where it is easier to rise than to fall, awaiting more macro positive signals [3][13]. - The latest US retail data for June showed a 0.6% month-on-month increase, exceeding expectations, indicating the continued resilience of the US economy. The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][17]. - The bond market has limited upside potential and is expected to remain volatile recently, with potential for a rebound after the Politburo meeting in July [2][22]. - The five major steel products continued a slight destocking trend this week. The destocking of coils accelerated slightly, while the seasonal weakness of rebar was more obvious. However, the fundamental pressure is not significant, and the short-term steel prices are still supported [4][39]. - The oil market strengthened further due to frequent positive news [5][31]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term due to the off-season demand not being weak, uncertainties in the mining end, and the slow generation of new warehouse receipts [6][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The threshold for the consumption tax on ultra-luxury cars has been lowered, and new energy models are included in the scope of collection. The policy will be implemented from July 20, 2025 [12]. - The youth unemployment rate excluding students dropped to 14.5% in June. A-shares continue to rotate among themes, and the index is rising. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Kevin Warsh called for a comprehensive reform of the central bank's current policy framework and proposed establishing a policy cooperation mechanism with the Treasury [15]. - Mary Daly believes that it is reasonable for policymakers to plan two interest rate cuts this year and that the Fed should not wait too long to act [16]. - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, indicating the continued resilience of the US economy. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in July has further decreased, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile in the short term [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that interest rates should remain unchanged for some time as tariffs push up inflation [19]. - Kevin Warsh called for a complete reform of the Fed and criticized the current leadership. The better-than-expected US retail sales data and the decline in unemployment claims indicate the continued resilience of the US economy. However, there is a risk of a reversal in the optimistic expectation of a soft landing, and it is recommended to control positions carefully [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan. The bond market has limited upside potential and is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to sell positions when the futures rebound to the previous high and continue to allocate medium-term long positions on dips [22][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is oscillating strongly. The first round of coke price increases has basically been implemented. The rise in the coking coal futures is supported by factors such as the unexpected increase in hot metal production and the slow resumption of coal mines. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ABIOVE raised its export forecast for Brazilian soybeans in the 24/25 season. The USDA weekly export sales report was in line with expectations. The US soybean futures continued to rise, while the domestic soybean meal supply and demand remained weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the development of Sino-US relations [25][26][27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is studying how to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%. Malaysia has raised the export tariff for crude palm oil in August to 9%. The Indonesian plantation fund is expected to have sufficient income to fund the biodiesel quota plan. The oil market strengthened further. It is not recommended to short, and it is advisable to wait for signs of a weakening in the commodity market sentiment before considering long positions [28][31][32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start-up rate in North China has recovered, while that in Northeast China has declined. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The theoretical loss of starch enterprises has widened, and the CS09 - C09 spread has remained weakly volatile. The future of the CS - C spread is highly uncertain [33][34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of corn processing enterprises has decreased, and the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has also declined. It is recommended to consider entering short positions on new crops in advance and continue to monitor the import auction and inventory situation [35][36]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In June, China's rebar production decreased year - on - year, while the production of medium - thick wide steel strips increased. The five major steel products continued to destock slightly this week. The short - term steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, but the driving force for continuous recovery is limited. It is recommended to hedge on the spot side when prices rebound [37][39][40]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Luoniu Mountain plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per 10 shares. The spot price has been oscillating weakly recently. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [41][42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern ports has been rising moderately this week. High temperatures have supported the daily consumption, and the overall coal price is expected to remain seasonally strong [43]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China National Steel & Equipment Corporation has reached an agreement with Azerbaijan to start a 187 - million - ton iron ore development project. The iron ore price is expected to remain highly volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead price has continued to fall, but the overall consumption is still recovering. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term buying opportunities on dips and consider internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [47][48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The inventory of zinc ingots in seven places has increased. The zinc price has oscillated upward, mainly following the trend of black commodities. It is recommended to consider short - term light - position short - selling opportunities on rebounds and long - term positive arbitrage opportunities in the spread [50][55]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Potash has been ordered to stop lithium resource development and utilization activities. The lithium carbonate contract has risen rapidly. The supply side is uncertain, and it is recommended to consider short - term long positions on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's refined copper production in June increased year - on - year. The short - term macro factors have a slightly positive impact on the copper price. The copper price is expected to be highly volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][55]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association has proposed to revise the HPM formula. The nickel price is expected to be range - bound in the short term and is likely to decline in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [56][58]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on July 17 was 72.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day. The CEA price is expected to be volatile in the short term [59][60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has been slightly adjusted. The caustic soda market is expected to have limited room for further increase [61][63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has mostly remained stable. The pulp price is expected to have limited upside potential [63][64]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market has been range - bound. The PVC price is expected to have limited upside potential [65]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly start - up rate of styrene has decreased. The styrene price is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the near - end profit still has room to decline. It is recommended to wait for a further decline in BZN before considering long - term allocation [66][68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased by 46 Bcf week - on - week. The Nymex natural gas price is expected to be volatile in the short term [69][70]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly increasing. The bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin of bottle chips on dips [71][74]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area has been weakly stable. The soda ash price is expected to remain under pressure in the medium term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [75]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has remained stable. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [76][77].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Cangge Mining indicates that its subsidiary, Cangge Lithium, has halted production for rectification due to illegal lithium resource mining, reflecting stricter compliance scrutiny in the domestic mining industry [1] Industry Summary - The mining sector in China is experiencing increased regulatory focus on compliance with mining rights, with local governments prioritizing the crackdown on illegal activities [1] - There is a potential risk of compliance issues spilling over to other lithium extraction companies in Qinghai and Yichun, which could lead to production halts and significantly impact domestic lithium resource supply [1] Price Outlook - Long-term lithium prices are expected to have strong cost support at 60,000-70,000 yuan per ton, combined with short-term supply disruptions and robust demand, suggesting that lithium prices may emerge from their bottom range [1]

Group 1: Basic Information - Report research industry: Fertilizer industry [2][8] - Report research company: Zangge Mining [8] - Research date: July 17, 2025 [1][8] - List of participating institutions:华夏 Fund, Huatai-PineBridge Fund, etc. [2][9][10] Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of lithium resource development has little impact on the company's operating performance, and the operations of Zangge Potash and other subsidiaries are normal [16] - The company is actively promoting the handling of lithium resource mining procedures and will apply for resumption of production in time after completion [16] - The progress of the renewal of the mining license for Qarhan Salt Lake is smooth [17] - The first-phase project of the Mamilacuo project has started construction, and the construction period is expected to be 9 - 12 months [18] Group 3: Specific Data - In 2025, the company plans to produce 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate and sell 11,000 tons; in the first half of the year, it is expected to produce 5,350 tons and sell 4,470 tons, with an expected net profit of about 49 million yuan, accounting for a low proportion of the company's current overall net profit [16] - In 2025, the company plans to produce 1 million tons of potassium chloride and sell 950,000 tons [16]

Group 1: Company - Specific Information - The wholly - owned subsidiary of Zangge Mining Co., Ltd., Golmud Zangge Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., received a notice on July 16, 2025, to immediately stop lithium resource development and actively rectify, and apply for resumption of production after completing legal procedures [1][3] - After receiving the notice, Zangge Lithium Industry has stopped production as required and is actively promoting the handling of lithium resource mining procedures [2] - In 2025, Zangge Lithium Industry planned to produce and sell 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate. In the first half of the year, it was expected to produce 5,350 tons and sell 4,470 tons, with an expected net profit of 4.9 million yuan, which has a small impact on the company's operating performance [3][4] Group 2: Industry - Specific Information - The new version of the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export by China" restricts the export of battery technology and lithium ore lithium extraction technology, increasing the threshold for overseas lithium salt production technology and the expansion time cycle [4] - In 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 701,000 tons. The suspension of Zangge Lithium Industry has a small impact on the annual lithium carbonate production [4] - The government will strictly supervise the development procedures and processes of lithium resources, and future new production capacity of salt lakes may be restricted. In the short - term, without other emergencies, the lithium carbonate price will run strongly between 66,000 - 69,000 yuan, and short - term operations are recommended [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains weak, with high and continuously accumulating inventory. The market shows abnormal movements due to the information of suspended lithium resource exploitation by listed companies, but fundamental pressure still exists after the news fades. Short - term trading requires caution and risk control [2]. - The put - call ratio of option positions is 36.57%, a - 1.5477% month - on - month decrease. The call positions in the option market dominate, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly expand. - The operation suggestion is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 120,421 hands, down 4,072 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 363,676 hands, up 23,058 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 11,203 hands, down 1 hand [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, down 1,490 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; power battery production is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 49,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000, down 2,000; the monthly sales are 1,329,000, up 22,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales are 6,937,000, up 1,993,000; the monthly export volume is 205,000, down 7,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,060,000, up 455,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.82%, up 0.86 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 22.49%, up 0.61 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 178,316, up 13,582; the total put position is 65,218, up 2,418; the put - call ratio of total positions is 36.57%, down 1.5477 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.28%, down 0.0033 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The State Council Executive Meeting studied the implementation of key policy measures to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and listened to the report on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry. It aims to promote the high - quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and standardize the competition order [2]. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,147.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 58.1%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 580.1 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [2]. - Zangge Mining announced at noon on July 17 that its wholly - owned subsidiary received a notice to immediately stop lithium resource development and utilization activities on July 16 [2].

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate main contract prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 69,980 yuan/ton before closing at 67,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.47% increase [1] - Analysts believe that supply-side disturbances and a continuous decrease in exchange warehouse receipts are the main factors driving recent price increases, while the overall supply remains sufficient [1] - Despite being a traditional off-season for demand, downstream orders are still relatively stable, indicating a less pronounced seasonal effect [1] Group 2 - Cangge Mining announced a halt in lithium resource development activities, affecting a production line with a monthly capacity of approximately 1,200 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, but the overall impact on the domestic lithium carbonate market supply is limited [2] - Domestic lithium carbonate production plans for July are projected to be 79,300 tons, a 7.1% increase month-on-month, with high operating rates maintained in Jiangxi and stable output in Qinghai [2] - Some manufacturers are experiencing increased orders and production enthusiasm, despite planned maintenance on certain spodumene production lines [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment is significantly driven by disturbances at the mining end, with lithium prices remaining strong, although downstream material manufacturers show little intention to actively replenish stocks [3] - The recent price increases are primarily driven by supply-side disturbances, with limited actual impact on the fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach in the short term [3] - Continuous reduction in warehouse receipts and rising lithium ore prices, combined with various market news disturbances, are stimulating price increases, while long-term hedging pressures may arise [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector experienced a significant rally following the announcement from Cangge Mining regarding the suspension of lithium resource development activities due to regulatory orders, although the overall impact on supply is considered limited given the current oversupply in the industry [2][3][7]. Group 1: Company Actions and Announcements - Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Lithium Industry Co., has halted production in compliance with a notice from the Haixi State Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi State Salt Lake Management Bureau [3]. - The company is actively working to rectify its operations and will apply for resumption of production once it has completed the necessary legal procedures for lithium resource extraction [3][4]. - Cangge Mining reported that its lithium production for the first half of the year is expected to be 5,350 tons, with a projected net profit of 49 million yuan, which is a small fraction of the company's overall profitability [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Industry Context - Following the announcement, Cangge Mining's stock initially dropped but later rebounded, closing at 42.92 yuan, up 1.27% [5][6]. - The Wind Lithium Index rose by 2.11%, with several lithium mining stocks, including Dazhong Mining and Rongjie Co., experiencing significant gains [6]. - The overall market sentiment indicates that the supply tightening expectations due to Cangge Mining's suspension are more emotional than substantive, as the industry is currently characterized by an oversupply situation [7]. Group 3: Regulatory and Environmental Background - The suspension of Cangge Mining's operations is part of a broader regulatory crackdown on the disorderly expansion of salt lake resource development in Qinghai Province, which has been highlighted in recent environmental protection inspections [7][8]. - The inspections revealed that the development of salt lake resources has exacerbated the ecological burden in the region, prompting the government to take action against multiple responsible parties [8].

Group 1: Company Performance and Impact - The company plans to achieve a lithium carbonate production of 11,000 tons and sales of 11,000 tons in 2025 [3] - In the first half of 2025, the expected production is 5,350 tons, with sales of 4,470 tons, and a projected net profit of approximately 49 million yuan, which is a small proportion of the overall net profit [3] - The impact of the temporary suspension of lithium production is minimal on the company's overall performance, as other subsidiaries are operating normally [3] Group 2: Potash Production - The company plans to achieve a potash production of 1 million tons and sales of 950,000 tons in 2025, with operations proceeding as planned [3] - The company confirmed that the suspension of lithium resource development will not affect potash production [3] Group 3: Mining License and Project Updates - The renewal of the mining license is progressing smoothly, with documentation submitted to the Ministry of Natural Resources for pre-examination [4] - The Marmicuo project has officially obtained a mining license, with construction of the first phase expected to take 9-12 months [4]