Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown a mixed performance, with the small metals sector rising by 6.58% and the industrial metals sector declining by 3.49% in the past two weeks [3][12] - The rare earth and magnetic materials sector is experiencing a significant profit increase, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and price recovery [5][65] - Lithium prices continue to decline due to oversupply, but leading companies are expected to recover as high-cost production is phased out [66] Industry Performance Overview - As of July 17, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has decreased by 0.87% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.55 percentage points [12] - Year-to-date, the industry has increased by 20.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.55 percentage points, ranking first among 31 industries [12] - The small metals sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 24.87%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 16.89% [18] Price Trends - As of July 17, 2025, LME copper is priced at $9,678 per ton, LME aluminum at $2,589 per ton, and LME nickel at $15,065 per ton [24] - The rare earth price index has risen to 192.03, with significant increases in prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [42][65] - Lithium carbonate prices are stabilizing, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 64,800 yuan per ton [40][66] Company Performance Highlights - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71% for the first half of 2025 [56] - Ningbo Yunsheng anticipates a net profit increase of 133.55% to 250.33% for the same period [57] - Xiamen Tungsten's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected at 19.178 billion yuan, with a net profit of 972 million yuan, a decrease of 4.41% year-on-year [52][67]

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Pengyang Dividend Preferred Mixed A (009102) reported a profit of 568,900 yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 0.62% during the period [3]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 1.213 yuan, with a one-year compounded unit net value growth rate of 17.58%, ranking 333 out of 601 comparable funds [4][3]. - The fund's performance over the last three months showed a growth rate of 8.89%, ranking 359 out of 607, and over the last six months, it was 9.89%, ranking 326 out of 607 [4]. Fund Management Strategy - The fund manager, Li Renwang, indicated that adjustments were made based on risk-reward ratios, including clearing positions in companies heavily impacted by tariffs and increasing investments in music platform companies and food delivery services [3]. - The fund maintained an average stock position of 90.5% over the last three years, higher than the industry average of 85.32% [14]. Fund Holdings - As of June 30, the fund's top holdings included Tencent Holdings, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Kweichow Moutai, and others, indicating a diversified portfolio [19]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the last three years was 0.414, ranking 48 out of 468 comparable funds, while the maximum drawdown was 19.57%, ranking 447 out of 461 [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Lithium Industry, has been ordered to cease lithium resource development activities due to regulatory compliance issues, with plans to rectify and apply for resumption of operations once legal procedures are completed [1][2]. Group 1: Company Impact - Cangge Mining plans to achieve a lithium carbonate production target of 11,000 tons and sales of 11,000 tons in 2025, with an expected production of 5,350 tons and sales of 4,470 tons in the first half of the year, projecting a net profit of 49 million yuan, which is a small proportion of the company's overall net profit [2]. - The company indicated that the impact of the subsidiary's temporary shutdown on overall business performance is minimal, as operations of other subsidiaries remain normal [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - On July 17, Cangge Mining received a notification from the Haixi State Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi State Salt Lake Management Bureau, mandating an immediate halt to lithium resource development activities and requiring compliance with national laws and regulations [1]. - The company is actively working on completing the necessary lithium resource extraction procedures to apply for resumption of operations once compliance is achieved [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound today, with all three major indices closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34%. The total trading volume reached 1.571 trillion, an increase of 31.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance 1. Lithium Mining Surge - The lithium mining sector saw significant gains due to three main factors: 1. Cangge Mining announced that its potassium fertilizer company received a notice to immediately stop lithium resource development, impacting lithium supply [2] 2. The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose over 4%, surpassing 70,000 yuan [2] 3. The global demand for lithium, driven by the booming electric vehicle industry and the rapid development of energy storage, continues to grow [2] 2. Rare Earths Rally - The rare earth sector experienced a surge due to two key reasons: 1. Several rare earth permanent magnet companies reported significant profit increases, with Huahong Technology expecting a net profit growth of 3047%-3722% year-on-year, and Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit increase of 1883%-2015% [3] 2. A new rare earth mineral named "Neodymium Yellow River" was discovered in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to positively impact the rare earth sector [3] 3. Coal and Nonferrous Metals Rise - The coal and nonferrous metals sectors saw substantial increases due to: 1. High summer temperatures leading to increased electricity demand, boosting coal consumption for thermal power generation [4] 2. The CCTD reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region rose again, with a week-on-week increase of 14, 19, and 18 yuan per ton [5] 3. Rainfall affecting coal production, with a 3.6% decrease in output and a 2.6% reduction in total inventory week-on-week [5] 4. Protests at overseas mines exacerbating resource supply concerns, contributing to price increases in metals like tin and zinc [5] 4. AI Sector Activity - The AI sector was active today, primarily due to OpenAI's technical live stream showcasing the new ChatGPT agent, which possesses autonomous thinking and action capabilities [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 2.47% to 67,960 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 64,950 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,350 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 416 tons to 10,239 tons [3]. - Rio Tinto officially announced the suspension of the Mt Cattlin lithium mine in its 25Q2 production report. Zangge Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary, Zangge Potash, received a notice to stop lithium resource development activities on July 16 [3]. - In July, the production is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. Lithium imports in July are expected to change little compared to the previous month. The production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,620 tons [3]. - With the continuous fermentation of news, the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts, the continuous rise of lithium ore prices, and many market news disturbances, the price may still be stimulated to rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 68,060 yuan/ton, up 1,460 yuan. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 693 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,465 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 64,950 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 63,350 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 62,570 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. Most prices of other products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain remained unchanged [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - The report provides charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%) over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16]. 3.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts display the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts show the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts illustrate the downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other环节 inventory of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [37][39]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41][42].

Group 1 - On July 17, a total of 32 companies were investigated by institutions, with 20 companies being surveyed by funds, highlighting a significant interest in certain firms [1][2] - The most notable company was Yingzi Network, which attracted 52 funds for investigation, followed by New Times and Cangge Mining with 29 and 28 funds respectively [1] - The surveyed companies spanned 11 industries, with the electronics sector having the highest representation at 5 companies, followed by machinery and computer sectors with 3 and 2 companies respectively [1] Group 2 - Among the surveyed companies, 3 had a total market capitalization exceeding 500 billion, with companies like BOE Technology Group and Pengding Holdings surpassing 1 trillion [1] - In terms of market performance, 11 stocks among the surveyed companies increased in value over the past 5 days, with notable gains from Zhongdian Port, Pengding Holdings, and New Times, showing increases of 20.53%, 15.78%, and 14.00% respectively [1][2] - Conversely, 9 stocks experienced declines, with the largest drops seen in Juxin Technology, Sunong Bank, and Zhongtong Bus, with decreases of 5.56%, 4.44%, and 3.34% respectively [1][2] Group 3 - In terms of capital flow, 7 stocks saw net inflows over the past 5 days, with Ice Wheel Environment leading with a net inflow of 100 million, followed by Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Sirui Pu with inflows of 47.79 million and 47.21 million respectively [2] - Among the surveyed companies, 10 released half-year performance forecasts, with 9 expecting profit increases and 1 expecting profitability, indicating a positive outlook for the majority [2] - Jilin Aodong is projected to have the highest net profit growth, with an expected median net profit of 1.263 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 135% [2]

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector experienced significant fluctuations on July 18, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Jinyuan Co. hitting the daily limit up, while others like Zhongmin Resources and Tianqi Lithium also saw notable gains [1][2] - The main driver behind this market movement was a sudden announcement from Zangge Mining, which stated that its subsidiary was ordered to halt lithium resource development activities due to compliance issues [3][7] - The announcement highlighted a tightening of local government regulations regarding lithium resource development, signaling potential challenges for the industry [7] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, referred to as the "lithium mining twins," both released their half-year performance forecasts, with Tianqi expecting a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year [8] - Ganfeng Lithium, on the other hand, projected a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, although this was an improvement from a loss of 760 million yuan in the previous year [8][9] - The differing strategies of the two companies in response to lithium price fluctuations were noted, with Tianqi adjusting its pricing mechanism to a monthly basis, while Ganfeng focused on expanding its battery business [10] Group 3 - The lithium carbonate market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with prices continuing to decline, which has led to inventory pressures [10] - Recent data indicated that the price of lithium carbonate futures had reached a new high of 70,980 yuan per ton, marking a 4.32% increase [2][11] - The supply-demand dynamics are shifting, with rising costs for lithium raw materials and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting potential support for prices in the near term [11][12] Group 4 - Policy measures are being implemented to support the lithium carbonate market, including the elimination of inefficient production capacities and government stockpiling of industrial-grade lithium carbonate [12][13] - The overall sentiment in the market is currently characterized by a rebound phase driven by market emotions, although the reality of weak fundamentals may limit significant price increases [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply disruptions have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate futures prices. However, the actual impact on the fundamentals is limited, with supply increasing and demand remaining stable. Short - term downstream replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space may be limited, and the support for prices may weaken. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 63,350 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change [1][2]. - Futures contracts: Lithium carbonate 2508 closed at 68,060 yuan/ton, up 2.1%; 2509 at 67,960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%; 2510 at 67,580 yuan/ton, up 2.3%; 2511 at 67,180 yuan/ton, up 2.07%; 2512 at 67,500 yuan/ton, up 2.03% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 693 dollars/ton, with a change of 8 dollars/ton. Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 910 dollars/ton, with a change of 20 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1465 dollars/ton, with a change of 15 dollars/ton. Phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4670 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5535 dollars/ton [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,345 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,650 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,195 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,115 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade and the main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,540 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons, a decrease of 559 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons, an increase of 506 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,239 tons, a decrease of 416 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 64,189 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 126 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 69,638 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7,116 yuan/ton [3]. Company News - On the afternoon of July 17, 2025, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., received a notice from the Haixi Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi Salt Lake Administration on July 16, 2025, requiring it to stop illegal lithium resource development activities immediately, rectify actively, and improve legal procedures for resources. It can only resume production after applying and getting approval [3].

Group 1 - The chemical sector showed strong performance with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a maximum intraday increase of 1.63% [1] - Major stocks in the sector saw significant gains, with Wanhua Chemical rising by 7%, Huafeng Chemical increasing over 4%, and several others gaining more than 3% [1] - The basic chemical sector attracted substantial capital inflow, with net inflows exceeding 5 billion yuan, ranking second among 30 major sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.94, which is at a low point historically, indicating potential for long-term investment [4] - Analysts predict a recovery in the chemical industry, with improvements expected in supply-demand dynamics and a gradual increase in industry sentiment [5][6] - The government is focusing on reducing disorderly competition and promoting product quality, which may lead to a more favorable environment for the chemical sector [6] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, providing exposure to major companies and various sub-sectors within the chemical industry [7] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (A class 012537/C class 012538) for broader exposure to the sector [7]