Group 1 - The passenger car sector increased by 0.12% on January 29, with SAIC Motor leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the passenger car sector showed varied performance, with SAIC Motor closing at 14.37, up 1.20%, and BYD closing at 92.31, down 1.10% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the passenger car sector was 709 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 501 million yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data indicates that major stocks like GAC Group and Great Wall Motors experienced significant net outflows from main funds [2] - Retail investors showed positive net inflows in several stocks, including GAC Group and Haima Automobile, despite overall sector outflows [2]

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle market in China is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by the strong performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and supportive policies for vehicle upgrades [1][7][12] - In December 2025, the sales of commercial vehicles reached 300,000 units, marking a 5% year-on-year increase and a 15% month-on-month increase [7][12] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is projected to reach 46% by December 2025, a substantial increase from 29% in December 2024 [12][14] Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - The total sales of commercial vehicles in China for 2025 are forecasted to be 3.1 million units, representing a 9% year-on-year growth compared to the stable period since 2022 [1][7] - The market showed a strong upward trend from March to December 2025, with December achieving a historical high for the month [5][7] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles in December 2025 are expected to hit 140,000 units, reflecting a 71% year-on-year increase and a 49% month-on-month increase [1][8] New Energy Vehicle Performance - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has increased significantly, from approximately 3% in 2019-2021 to 46% in December 2025 [12][14] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles for the entire year of 2025 are projected to reach 910,000 units, a 57% increase compared to the previous year [1][8] - The growth in new energy vehicle sales is attributed to strong demand and government incentives, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector [10][12] Market Structure and Competition - The market for commercial vehicles is characterized by a stable structure, with significant contributions from light and heavy-duty trucks [14][18] - Key players in the commercial vehicle market include Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, which dominate the light truck, heavy truck, and bus segments respectively [15][18] - The performance of heavy-duty trucks has improved significantly due to subsidy policies, with notable growth in electric heavy-duty trucks in regions like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai [16][17] Regional Market Dynamics - The light truck market is particularly strong in regions such as East China and South China, with increasing sales in these areas [18][19] - The penetration of new energy vehicles in the truck segment reached 38% in December 2025, while the bus segment saw a penetration rate of 78% [14][18] - The market for new energy light trucks is primarily concentrated in East China and South China, with significant growth observed in these regions [19][21]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On January 28, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after a decline, recovering part of the previous day's losses. The closing price of J2605 was 1684 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the trading volume was 13,284 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1134.5 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%, and the trading volume was 714,203 lots [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coke 2605 contract continued to decline, but the J - value was significantly dull. The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coking coal 2605 contract showed a differentiated trend, with the J - value and K - value turning up and the D - value continuing to decline. The green columns of the MACD of the daily line of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts enlarged for the second consecutive trading day [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On January 28, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1455 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1483 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1640 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1420 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1430 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1660 yuan/ton, all with no change [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: The regulatory policy tightening led to the decline of metal prices with poor fundamentals. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the coal - coke prices rebounded after reaching a low [10]. - Fundamentals: Independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 5 weeks, and the loss amplitude has been expanding for 3 weeks. The coke production has decreased slightly for 2 consecutive weeks after increasing in the first 2 weeks of the year. The port coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the steel mill coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early October last year, while the coking enterprise coke inventory has increased after decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded since January 12, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically remained above 190,000 tons recently. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since the end of January last year, while the coking coal inventory of steel enterprises and ports has been relatively stable [10]. - Forecast: The news has a dual impact on the coal - coke futures prices, but the fundamentals change little, resulting in the relative stability of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise. It is advisable to try the strategy of buying for hedging or investment at low prices after the callback stabilizes [11]. Group 5: Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the total assets of central enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with a total profit of 2.5 trillion yuan, fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan, and tax payment of 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025. The investment in strategic emerging industries was 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.8% of the total investment [12]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12]. - The number and production capacity of open - pit coal mines in China will continue to increase, and their position in the energy supply system will become more important [12]. - By January 25, Wuhai Energy Company completed 1.2284 million tons of raw coal production and 1.0239 million tons of commercial coal sales, achieving a good start [13]. - Haohua Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 419 million yuan and 569 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 45.08% - 59.55% [13]. - Baofeng Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 11 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 73.57% - 89.34% [13]. - In 2025, the raw coal production of large - scale industrial enterprises in Ningxia was 10.28106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13]. - In 2025, Shaanxi added 30.95 million tons/year of coal production capacity, and 10.04 million kilowatts of renewable energy installed capacity [13]. - The iron ore "water - rail intermodal transport" business of Hubei Energy Jingzhou Coal Port was officially launched [13]. - Shanxi is promoting economic development and "major project construction year" work [13]. - Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding signed a contract to build 4 + 2 LNG carriers [14]. - Huaibei Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be about 1.495 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.21% [14]. - China National Energy Group opened a new coal supply channel to the central - China region [14]. - Northeast Power Grid's power consumption load reached a record high in late December 2025 [14]. - The daily power generation of Datang Huayin Electric Power's thermal power units reached a record high [14]. - Shanxi Coking expects to be profitable in 2025, but its net profit will decline by more than 50% year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's effective supply of coking coal was close to 480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The net import volume of coking coal decreased for the first time since 2021, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [14]. - In 2025, the freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port reached 42.433 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, a record high [14]. - The anti - dumping measures for stainless steel welded pipes originating from China in the Eurasian Economic Union will be extended to November 12, 2026 [14]. - Mongolia plans to produce 90 million tons of coal, 1.9 million tons of copper, and 9.4 million tons of iron ore in 2026 [14]. - India and the EU reached a free - trade agreement on January 27 [14]. - India's coal production target for the 2026 - 27 fiscal year is 1.31 billion tons [15]. - A barge collision accident in Indonesia may affect coal barge transportation [15]. - In 2025, Brazil's Vale's iron ore production reached 336 million tons, a new high since 2018 [15]. - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and oil [15]. - In 2025, South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal's coal export volume increased by 11% year - on - year to 57.66 million tons, a four - year high [15]. - India Oil Corporation plans to purchase at least 24 million barrels of Brazilian crude oil in the next two years [15].

天眼查资料显示，重庆长安汽车股份有限公司，成立于1996年，位于重庆市，是一家以从事汽车制造业 为主的企业。企业注册资本991408.606万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，重庆长安汽车股份有限公司 共对外投资了120家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息3101条，专利信息5000 条，此外企业还拥有行政许可1065个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，重庆长安汽车股份有限公司申请一项名为"音频芯片的频率和电压调节方 法、装置、设备及车辆"的专利，公开号CN121411602A，申请日期为2025年10月。 专利摘要显示，本发明涉及一种音频芯片的频率和电压调节方法、装置、设备及车辆，在该方法中，通 过获取到音频任务量参数和调优数据后，音频任务量参数包括当前音频缓冲区填充率、当前音频任务队 列堆积率、当前音频编码复杂度、当前音频延迟、数字信号处理器的当前占用率和当前温度中的至少一 个，根据音频任务量参数，确定第一频率和第一电压；根据调优数据，对第一频率和第一电压进行调 优，得到第二频率和第二电压；进而根据第二频率和第二电压，逐步调节音频芯片的时钟频率和工作电 压。本方案通过音频任务量参数和调优数据，实 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Russian automotive market is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with a total market size of 13.8 trillion rubles in 2025, down 7.8% from 2024, marking the first negative growth since 2015 [1] - In 2025, the new car market in Russia is projected to generate 4.6 trillion rubles, a decrease of 18.4% year-on-year, while the used car market is expected to reach 9.2 trillion rubles, down 1.4% [1] - The decline in the Russian automotive market is attributed to high benchmark interest rates increasing loan costs and weak market demand, along with policy changes such as increased vehicle scrappage taxes [1][3] Group 2 - In 2025, new cars will account for 33% of the market's monetary value in Russia, while used cars will represent 67%, highlighting the higher share of used cars in the market [2] - Chinese automotive brands are experiencing a decline in market share in Russia, with sales of new cars dropping to 68.5 million units in 2025, a 25% decrease, resulting in a market share reduction from 58.5% in 2024 to 51.7% [2] Group 3 - Before the Ukraine conflict, European car manufacturers dominated the Russian market, holding about 30% of the market share, while local manufacturers had only 25% [3] - Following the conflict, Western car manufacturers exited the market, allowing local manufacturers to increase their market share to 40%, while Chinese brands surged from around 5% to over 50% by 2023 [3] - In 2024, Russia became the top destination for Chinese automotive exports, but the market showed signs of decline at the beginning of 2025 due to tightening export policies and rising tariffs [3][4] Group 4 - A significant turning point occurred in 2024 when new taxes and increased scrappage fees were implemented, affecting the cost of imported vehicles [4] - The number of Chinese brand showrooms in Russia is expected to decrease significantly, with 643 showrooms closing by 2025, reflecting a cooling market for Chinese vehicles [6] - The competitive landscape for Chinese automotive brands in Russia has intensified, leading to lower profit margins and increased price competition due to market saturation [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant decline in profitability, with upstream components showing steady growth, while vehicle manufacturing and downstream dealerships face considerable pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Profitability Trends - In 2025, the automotive industry achieved a profit of 461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, but the sales profit margin dropped to 4.1%, lower than the average of 5.9% for downstream industrial enterprises [2]. - The profit margin for the automotive industry fell to 4.1% in 2025, marking a five-year low, with December profits plummeting to 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.4% [2][3]. - The overall profit margin for the automotive industry in December 2025 was the lowest in five years, with a significant decline from 4.1% in December 2024 to 1.8% [2]. Group 2: Performance of Different Segments - Among 129 A-share automotive parts companies, 80 reported a year-on-year profit increase, indicating over 60% had both revenue and profit growth [3]. - In the vehicle manufacturing segment, 16 out of 22 A-share car manufacturers were profitable, but major players like BYD and GAC Group saw significant profit declines, with GAC Group's profit dropping by 3691.33% [3]. - The downstream dealership segment is under severe pressure, with only 28% meeting sales targets and a loss rate climbing to 55% [3]. Group 3: Cost Pressures - The overall unit cost for industrial enterprises has increased significantly, with lithium carbonate prices doubling and raw material costs rising for midstream and downstream sectors [3][4]. - The cost of a typical mid-sized smart electric vehicle has increased by 4,000 to 7,000 yuan due to rising prices of lithium, aluminum, and copper, which are difficult for manufacturers to pass on to consumers [4]. - Starting in 2026, a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles and changes to subsidy policies will further increase consumer costs, complicating demand and supply dynamics in the automotive market [4]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Some automotive companies are accelerating collaboration with upstream suppliers to address challenges, as seen in the strategic discussions between China Aluminum Group and China FAW Group [5].

Group 1 - The automotive industry is divided on the approach to L3 and L4 autonomous driving, with some companies advocating for skipping L3 and moving directly to L4, while others are focused on accelerating the implementation of L3 [2][3] - Companies like Xiaopeng and Mercedes-Benz have expressed skepticism about L3, with Xiaopeng's founder stating that true fully autonomous driving will arrive by 2026, skipping L3 altogether [2][3] - In contrast, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China has issued licenses for L3 vehicles, indicating a push towards practical implementation, with companies like BYD and Hongmeng already conducting extensive testing [2][8] Group 2 - The distinction between L3 and L4 is primarily based on legal and responsibility frameworks rather than clear technological differences, with L3 being seen as a limited version of L4 [4][6] - The current classification system for autonomous driving levels may not accurately reflect the technological capabilities, as many experts believe that the future will categorize driving into two main scenarios: driver assistance and true autonomous driving [4][6] - Despite the push for L3, regulatory hurdles remain significant, with companies facing lengthy approval processes and strict operational limitations even after receiving licenses [9][11] Group 3 - The market demand for L3 systems is currently insufficient, as evidenced by Mercedes-Benz's decision to pause its L3 rollout due to high costs and low consumer interest [13][14] - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) option has seen low adoption rates, prompting the company to shift to a subscription model to increase accessibility [14] - The timeline for mass production of L3 vehicles remains uncertain, with various interpretations of what "mass production" entails, leading to discrepancies between technical capabilities and regulatory approvals [15][16]

Group 1 - The passenger car sector experienced a decline of 0.81% on January 28, with Seres leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - BYD's stock price increased by 1.67% to 93.34, while several other major automakers like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor saw declines of 1.04% and 1.25% respectively [1] Group 2 - The passenger car sector saw a net outflow of 1.029 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 762 million yuan [1] - Specific stocks like SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors experienced significant net outflows from institutional investors, with amounts of -12.24 million yuan and -24.21 million yuan respectively [1] - In contrast, Haima Automobile and BYD saw net inflows from retail investors of 40.35 million yuan and 28.6 million yuan respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is facing significant profit declines, with 2025 projected profits at 461 billion yuan, a mere 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a sales profit margin of 4.1%, which is below the average of 5.9% for downstream industrial enterprises [2] Group 1: Profit Trends - The automotive industry's profit margin is expected to drop to 4.1% in 2025, marking a five-year low, following a decline to 4.3% in 2024 [2] - In December 2025, the automotive industry reported profits of 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.4%, with a profit margin of 1.8%, significantly lower than the 4.1% in December 2024 [2] - Excluding the pandemic-affected April 2022, December 2025's profit margin is the lowest in five years [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The automotive supply chain shows a mixed performance, with upstream parts manufacturers experiencing stable growth, while vehicle manufacturing and downstream dealerships face significant challenges [3] - Among 22 A-share automotive companies, 16 reported profits, but major players like BYD and GAC Group saw substantial profit declines, with GAC Group's profit dropping by 3691.33% [3] - The dealership segment is under severe pressure, with only 28% meeting sales targets and a loss rate climbing to 55% [3] Group 3: Cost Pressures - The automotive industry is experiencing increased cost pressures, with lithium carbonate prices doubling and overall raw material costs rising, impacting profit margins [3][4] - The cost of a typical electric vehicle has increased by 4,000 to 7,000 yuan due to rising prices of lithium, aluminum, and copper, which manufacturers struggle to pass on to consumers [4] - Starting in 2026, a 5% tax on new energy vehicle purchases and changes to subsidy policies will further increase consumer costs, complicating demand and supply dynamics [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The China Automotive Industry Association forecasts total vehicle sales to reach 34.75 million units in 2026, a 1% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles projected to grow by 15.2% to 19 million units [5] - Some automotive companies are accelerating collaborations with upstream suppliers to address these challenges, focusing on strategic partnerships and new material development [5]

行业： 评级： 汽车 强于大市（维持） 2026年1月28日 证券研究报告 智能化+全球化驱动，把握结构性机会 2026年汽车行业投资策略 分析师：吴迪（汽车首席） SAC：S0820525010001 wudi@ajzq.com 联系人：徐姝婧 SAC：S0820124090004 xushujing@ajzq.com 0. 核心摘要 1. 复盘展望：总量承压，结构突围 2. 行业趋势：智能化+全球化驱动增长 3. 投资建议 目 录 2 0. 核心摘要 1. 复盘展望：总量承压，结构突围 2. 行业趋势：智能化+全球化驱动增长 3. 投资建议 4. 风险提示 4. 风险提示 目 录 3 0. 核心摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 4 n 复盘：受益于设备更新及消费品以旧换新的"两新"政策助力，以及企业新品密集上市，终端需求持续释放，全年汽车销 量实现较快增长。2025年申万汽车板块整体涨幅+24.3%，同期沪深300指数涨幅+17.7%。2025年中国汽车总销量达 3440万辆，同比+9.4%，其中乘用车销量3010万辆，同比+9.2%，商用车销量430万辆，同比+10.9%。 n 展望：202 ...