1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The price of lithium carbonate is likely to fall rather than rise due to cost factors, but investors should be wary of production cuts or construction halts in the domestic and foreign lithium industries. It is recommended that investors mainly place short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 53,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Futures Market - **Price**: On May 20, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 60,960 yuan/ton, 60,860 yuan/ton, 62,100 yuan/ton, and 62,100 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend compared with the previous trading day [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 242,276 lots, an increase of 18,212 lots compared with the previous day; the open interest was 339,673 lots, an increase of 3,866 lots [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 36,545 tons, a decrease of 139 tons compared with the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 3,180 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Lithium Spot Market - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone decreased to varying degrees on May 20, 2025 [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds also showed a downward trend. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) decreased by 450 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Products**: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also decreased to varying degrees [1] 3.3 Industry News - **New Project Commissioning**: Shandong Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL, officially put its energy storage and power battery production base in Yanzhou, Jining into operation. The first - phase project has a total scale of 60GWh. The second and third phases are expected to be put into operation in the next two years, which is expected to form a global leading 100 - billion - level new energy battery industrial cluster [1] - **Production Plan**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. said that with the support of China Minmetals and China Salt Lake, the newly built 40,000 - ton lithium salt project will produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year [1] - **Project Commencement**: On May 19, the annual production project of 10GWh of electronic energy - storage cells and 10GWh of ion batteries 2PAC of Changyi Zhongdian (Yunnan) Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. started construction in Simao Industrial Park, Yunnan [1] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: After the Greenbushes project of Tianqi Lithium is put into operation in October 2025, the total production capacity will reach 24,000 tons/year, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic (imported) lithium ore. The production volume of lithium carbonate in China in May is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo inspections, and the production costs and profits of different production methods vary [2] - **Demand Side**: The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate by different production processes in China is 32,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton. The production volume of lithium iron phosphate in May is expected to increase. The production costs of some cobalt - related products are rising, and the production volume of some products may change [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the lithium industry is expected to see significant production increases from key players such as Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others from 2024 to 2026, driven by various projects coming online [3][4] - Ganfeng Lithium is projected to have the highest production capacity in 2025 and 2026, with major contributions from the Goulamina project and several salt lake projects [3] - The report emphasizes the rapid growth in production rates for companies like Yahua Group and Sichuan Energy Power, indicating a robust expansion in the lithium sector [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Production Forecast - Ganfeng Lithium: Expected production of 8.6 million tons LCE in 2025, growing to 11.4 million tons LCE by 2026, with a CAGR of 49% [4] - Tianqi Lithium: Projected to produce 9.3 million tons LCE in 2025, increasing to 10.4 million tons LCE by 2026, with a CAGR of 8% [4] - Yahua Group: Anticipated to ramp up production significantly from 0.5 million tons LCE in 2024 to 3.3 million tons LCE by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 145% [4] - Other companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Xizang Mining are also expected to see substantial increases in production, contributing to the overall growth of the industry [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price is approaching 60,000 yuan per ton, with significant fluctuations observed in the lithium battery industry since 2010, currently experiencing a second wave of price volatility since 2020 [1][2] Industry Overview - Lithium carbonate prices have dropped significantly from a peak of nearly 600,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to around 60,000 yuan per ton currently, indicating a severe market correction [1][2] - The lithium industry has experienced two major price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with the first cycle from 2015 to 2019 and the current cycle starting in 2020 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to an increase in supply and lower-than-expected downstream demand, leading to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [2][3] - Current lithium carbonate prices have fallen below the breakeven point for processing companies, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises, which may be forced to reduce or halt production [2][3] Price Trends and Forecast - Short-term forecasts indicate that lithium carbonate prices may continue to experience downward pressure due to high inventory levels and a lack of significant production cuts from salt lake operations [3][4] - Long-term projections suggest that lithium carbonate prices may stabilize between 50,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton, depending on supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements [4][5] Company Performance - Major lithium companies such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Shengxin Lithium have reported losses due to the declining lithium carbonate prices, while companies with low-cost salt lake lithium extraction technologies have managed to remain profitable [5] - The gross profit margins for lithium products vary significantly, with salt lake companies achieving margins around 50.68%, while other major players report much lower margins [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a return to weak realities from strong expectations in the cobalt and lithium markets, with prices rebounding before retreating [14][15]. - The easing of US-China trade relations is expected to buffer the downward trend in lithium prices, although the overall market remains cautious [14][15]. - Cobalt market dynamics are characterized by a tightening supply and a cautious outlook from industry players, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium sector is experiencing a slight price decline, with the Wuxi 2507 contract down 1.57% to 62,600 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2507 contract down 1.94% to 61,800 CNY/ton [14]. - Lithium concentrate prices have decreased to 712 USD/ton, down 13 USD/ton from the previous period [14]. - Recommended stocks for overweight positions include Zhongmin Resources, Yahua Group, Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Keda Manufacturing, and Tibet Mining [14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes significant developments in the industry, including a major discovery at the Tamarack copper-nickel project in Minnesota [19]. - The International Cobalt Institute predicts a shift to a cobalt shortage by the early 2030s, driven by demand growth outpacing supply [19]. - Salt Lake Co. has signed a project cooperation letter indicating a potential investment of around 300 million USD in Highfield Resources [19]. 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - Domestic production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw a month-on-month decline in April [20]. - Lithium carbonate production decreased by 7% month-on-month but increased by 40% year-on-year [22]. - Cobalt sulfate production increased by 11% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year [23]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2.15% to a range of 66,100-64,600 CNY/ton [57]. 4. Listed Company Profit Forecasts - Ganfeng Lithium is projected to have a PE ratio of 86.06 for 2025, while Tianqi Lithium is rated cautiously with a PE of 58.30 for 2025 [94]. - Huayou Cobalt is rated for an overweight position with a PE of 11.79 for 2025 [94].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the Market" for the basic chemical industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index fell by 3.61% in April 2025, ranking 20th among 30 major industries, with a year-on-year decline of 0.37% [5][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on potassium fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industries, which are expected to see price recovery due to tightening supply and strong demand [5][8]. Market Review - In April 2025, 12 out of 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector saw price increases, with daily chemical products, inorganic salts, and fluorine chemicals leading the gains at 8.56%, 4.37%, and 3.46% respectively [12]. - The overall performance of the basic chemical sector was characterized by a significant price drop in chemical products, influenced by falling international oil prices [5][8]. Industry and Company News - The report highlights that the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 78.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.4% [16]. - The report notes that the potassium fertilizer sector is characterized by strong resource attributes and a concentrated supply structure, which is expected to drive price recovery [5][8]. Product Price Tracking - In April 2025, the prices of chemical raw materials and products saw a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, with significant impacts from the drop in oil prices [20][21]. - The report tracks the price movements of various chemical products, indicating a general downward trend due to external market pressures [5][8]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for May 2025 suggests continued focus on potassium fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industries, which are expected to benefit from tightening supply and robust demand [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate industry is currently facing significant challenges, with prices falling below the breakeven point for many producers, leading to operational difficulties and potential bankruptcies [3][4][5]. Price Trends - As of May 15, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 65,050 yuan per ton, marking a decline of over 10,000 yuan since the beginning of the year [2]. - The price drop has been attributed to insufficient downstream demand and increased supply, with some traders contributing to the downward pressure by offloading inventory [2][5]. Industry Impact - The breakeven price for lithium carbonate processing companies is generally considered to be 70,000 yuan per ton, and many producers are struggling to remain profitable at current price levels [4]. - Some companies have resorted to production cuts and maintenance to reduce costs, while others are attempting to maintain customer relationships despite the challenging market [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue increasing, while downstream demand, particularly from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, is stabilizing without significant growth [5]. - Inventory levels have reached a high of 96,000 tons as of April 30, indicating a loose supply in the market [6]. Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that a recovery in lithium prices is unlikely in the short term due to ongoing supply increases and stable demand [5]. - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and resource self-sufficiency to enhance competitiveness, with some considering strategic shifts from expansion to value creation [8][9]. Technological Innovation - Investment in technological innovation is seen as crucial for improving extraction efficiency and reducing costs, which could help alleviate resource constraints and influence market pricing mechanisms [9].

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co. intends to invest approximately $300 million to acquire shares in Highfield Resources Limited, aiming to become its largest shareholder and gain control over the company [2]. Group 1: Investment and Acquisition - Salt Lake Co. signed a project cooperation letter with Highfield Resources, Yancoal Energy Group, and EMR Capital to acquire shares in Highfield Resources [2]. - The acquisition will allow Salt Lake Co. to control Yancoal Canada Resources and Highfield Resources' Southey and Muga potash projects [2][3]. - If successful, the transaction will add an annual production capacity of 380,000 tons of potash for Salt Lake Co. [5]. Group 2: Company Background - Highfield Resources, established in 2011 and listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, focuses on potash project development, with its core asset being the Muga potash project in northern Spain [2]. - Yancoal Canada, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yancoal Energy, was established in 2011 and is engaged in potash exploration and development, holding the Southey potash project [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The global potash production capacity is concentrated, with Canada, Russia, and Belarus accounting for 65% of total production [7]. - China's potash production is limited, with over 50% of its demand met through imports, highlighting the strategic importance of domestic production [7][8].

Group 1: Core Insights - The launch of lithium carbonate futures on July 21, 2023, has effectively demonstrated its price discovery, risk hedging, and resource allocation functions, particularly through the mergers and acquisitions of large state-owned enterprises represented by Salt Lake Co [1][14] - By the end of 2024, 66 lithium battery listed companies announced plans to actively use lithium carbonate futures for hedging, a 186% increase from 23 companies at the end of December 2023 [1][14] - The average daily position of general corporate clients in the lithium carbonate futures market reached 43.86%, with leading enterprises participating at over 50%, indicating a steady increase in market participation [1][14] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate futures has declined from 230,000 yuan/ton at launch to 85,400 yuan/ton by December 5, 2023, followed by a rebound to 125,000 yuan/ton on March 4, 2024, before dropping to a new low of 62,560 yuan/ton by May 12, 2025 [2] - The lithium carbonate industry is currently experiencing widespread losses due to an oversupply in the market [2] Group 3: Company Performance - In Q1 2025, 20 listed lithium companies reported a total revenue of 43.555 billion yuan, with 12 companies profitable, including Salt Lake Co with a net profit of 1.145 billion yuan, ranking first [8][12] - The top three companies by revenue were EVE Energy (12.8 billion yuan), Hunan Youneng (6.762 billion yuan), and Ganfeng Lithium (3.772 billion yuan), while the lowest were Weiling Co (61 million yuan), Tibet Mining (68 million yuan), and Rongjie Co (95 million yuan) [8][12] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - As of July 2024, the profit margins for lithium carbonate production from different sources were approximately 35,485 yuan for lithium mica, 46,652 yuan for spodumene, and 64,964 yuan for lithium extraction from salt lakes, with the latter having the lowest cost and highest profit margin [8] - Salt Lake Co's production cost for lithium carbonate was 36,400 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the market average prices of 90,000 yuan/ton for battery-grade and 86,000 yuan/ton for industrial-grade lithium carbonate, resulting in a gross margin of 50.68% [18] Group 5: Resource Allocation and Mergers - The resource allocation function of lithium carbonate futures is exemplified by the acquisition of Salt Lake Co by China Minmetals, which became the actual controller, and the planned investment of approximately 300 million USD in Highland Resources [15][16] - Salt Lake Co has maintained profitability for five consecutive years, with a cumulative net profit of 34.66 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, and a low debt-to-asset ratio of 12.67% as of Q1 2025, providing a solid foundation for further mergers and acquisitions [16]

Core Viewpoint - China Salt Lake Industry Group is rapidly initiating external acquisitions to achieve its goal of 10 million tons of potash fertilizer production capacity by 2030, following a clear capacity planning announcement [1][6][8]. Group 1: Acquisition Plans - Salt Lake Co. intends to invest approximately $300 million in Highland Resources to become its largest shareholder and gain control over the company [1][3]. - The acquisition includes the Southey and Muga potash projects, which have a combined planned capacity of 380,000 tons per year, currently in the greenfield development stage [1][9]. - The Southey project is recognized as a world-class potash mine located in Saskatchewan, Canada, known for its high grade and thick mineral layers [2][4]. Group 2: Strategic Development - The company has outlined a "three-step" strategy to achieve its production goals, which includes integrating and optimizing operations by 2025 and establishing a world-class salt lake industry by 2030 [8][9]. - As of now, China Salt Lake has a total potash fertilizer production capacity of 5.3 million tons per year, with the acquisition potentially advancing its goal significantly [9]. - The company has maintained a low debt ratio of 12.67% and a strong cash position of 13.86 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for external acquisitions [7][8]. Group 3: Market Context - The domestic market has a long-term reliance on imported potash, making overseas acquisitions a necessary strategy for Chinese potash fertilizer companies [6]. - The acquisition process involves complex approval procedures due to the involvement of foreign investment and state-owned enterprises [9][10]. - The experience of the controlling shareholder, China Minmetals, in cross-border mergers and acquisitions may provide additional support for the transaction [10].

盐湖股份表示，本次签署的《项目合作意向书》系各方基于合作意愿签署的框架性、意向性的无法律约 束力文件，后续公司将就本次合作展开尽职调查，交易各方将就核心的交易条件、交易金额进行商讨， 并履行各自审批程序，决定是否签署《投资协议》等正式文件，最终能否达成合作并签署正式协议尚存 在较大不确定性。 当晚，兖矿能源也就此事进行了公告，资料显示，兖矿能源于2024年9月23日与高地资源签署了《实施 协议》及《股份认购协议》。兖矿能源将通过资产注入和现金认购方式获得高地资源新增发股份，成为 交易后高地资源的第一大股东并控制董事会("原交易安排")。 兖矿能源披露的合作意向书内容与盐湖股份披露情况一致。相较原交易安排，新增的主要交易方为盐湖 股份。 兖矿能源称，根据合作意向书，盐湖股份将成为高地资源的最大股东，公司将支持盐湖股份认购交易。 如果原交易安排和盐湖股份认购交易的条款和承诺之间存在任何冲突或潜在冲突，公司将在保障公司及 股东权益的基础上，与相关方进行商务协商，在合规履行上市监管和国资监管要求的审批流程的前提 下，签署必要的法律文件，以推进拟议交易。 5月12日晚间，盐湖股份（000792）公告，为积极落实公司发展 ...