假日经济｜电商低价促销知名白酒常态化，酒商担忧"没有最低，只有更低" 【中国白酒网】电商与白酒企业的矛盾日益加剧。 电商平台与白酒企业的价格冲突仍在持续。记者注意到，今年双节前后，即时电商和平台电商的白 酒促销大战仍在持续，多个名酒品牌的核心产品优惠后价格都跌破了线下市场的批发价，这也加剧了线 下渠道的压力。 记者注意到，多个电商平台采用了限时补贴的方式进行优惠，优惠后的价格比批发价更低。比如飞 天茅台的市场零售价约在1900元/瓶左右，但优惠后价格只有1700元/瓶，而第三方平台该产品的批发价 约在1780元/瓶；五粮液的核心单品普五优惠后价格为769元/瓶，而同期市场批发价为840元/瓶。不仅仅 是头部酒企，记者注意到，包括山西汾酒、剑南春等名酒补贴后价格也都低于批发价。 济南酒商老盛告诉记者，由于价格的波动，线下终端商拿货非常谨慎，不愿囤货，经销商的出货节 奏也受到影响。一般而言，双节前名酒的价格都会有所上涨，但今年完全没有起色，预计节后酒价还有 下行空间。 多位经销商表示，前一段时间即时电商的售价更低，但在双节市场，电商平台的促销力度更大，消 费者已经养成了线上比价的习惯，这样一来，不得已也只能偷偷降 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the excitement and emotional engagement of fans during the ongoing Shandong Super League matches, showcasing both competitive spirit and personal moments [3][5][22] - The matches are crucial for teams' advancement, leading to a surge in ticket demand, making them a scarce resource [5][22] - The emotional narratives from the matches, such as a player’s tears after a draw and a public proposal during a game, illustrate the deep connection between fans and the sport [3][5] Group 2 - A promotional lottery event by Wuliangye has been launched, allowing fans to win tickets to the matches, with a high probability of winning [6][10][22] - The lottery includes various prizes, such as a car and collectible items, enhancing fan engagement and providing an alternative to the challenging ticket purchasing process [10][11][22] - The event encourages fans to participate by purchasing specific Wuliangye products, thus integrating consumer goods with sports entertainment [11][22]

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is currently at a bottoming phase, with strong players continuing to thrive [4] - The market has underperformed due to weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, with A-share food and beverage sector down 4.7% year-to-date, while H-share food and beverage sector increased by 29.5% [4] - There is a notable divergence among product categories, with alcoholic beverages facing pressure while mass-market products show signs of improvement, particularly in leading brands [4] Market Indicators - The trading volume, open interest, and valuation of the food and beverage sector are at historically low levels, with the sector's trading volume in A-shares dropping below 2% [9][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for food and beverage has been declining since 2021, with categories like liquor and beer at historically low percentiles [12][16] Fundamental Analysis - The report discusses the need for a top-down approach to assess the investment value of leading companies like Kweichow Moutai, which holds a 31% weight in the food and beverage sector [27] - A bottom-up approach is also suggested to identify rapidly growing segments or companies in recovery [27] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on policy-sensitive sectors such as liquor and the restaurant supply chain, highlighting companies like Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Haidilao [4] - Strong brands in the mass-market segment are also recommended, including Nongfu Spring, Dongpeng Beverage, and Yili Group [4] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in liquor consumption as the impact of recent policies diminishes, with positive signals expected from the supply side [4] - The fourth quarter is projected to see improvements in key indicators for the liquor sector, including the price of Moutai [4] Performance Forecast - For Q3 2025, Kweichow Moutai is expected to generate revenue of 1,863.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, while Luzhou Laojiao is projected to see a 10% decline in revenue [49][50] - The report provides detailed forecasts for various companies, indicating expected revenue and profit changes for the upcoming quarters [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, indicating a need for patience as the sector is still in a bottoming phase [5][8]. Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor industry is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [5][8]. - The report highlights that the consumption scenarios, particularly banquet and gift demands, have underperformed expectations, while the business sector shows some improvement but still has a significant year-on-year gap [5][8]. - The report suggests that the stock price turning point may occur before the fundamental turning point, indicating that investors should remain patient and wait for the right opportunities [5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - The liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with a projected demand drop of 20-30% and an increase in inventory levels [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for patience and suggests that high dividend yield stocks from leading companies may provide long-term value [5][8]. - Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a watch on Wuliangye, Jianshe, and Yingjia Gongjiu [5][8]. 2. Brand Performance - Moutai is performing the best, with expected sales decline in the single digits and stable pricing around 1780-1835 yuan [9][10]. - Wuliangye is expected to see a 15% decline in sales, with current pricing around 810-830 yuan [9][10]. - Guojiao 1573 anticipates a 20-30% sales drop, maintaining prices of 630 yuan for low-alcohol and 820-830 yuan for high-alcohol variants [9][10]. - Fenjiu is expected to see a 10-15% decline in sales, with pricing for Qinghua 20 around 330-360 yuan [10]. 3. Regional Insights - In Henan, overall sales volume dropped by 15%, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing declines of 6% and 8% respectively [11][12]. - In Jiangsu, the market is experiencing a 20% decline in sales, with Moutai maintaining stable pricing around 1800 yuan [19][20]. - The report notes that the business consumption scenario has been the most affected, with a recovery to only 70% of previous levels [18][22]. 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter of 2025 will see stable prices, but inventory levels will need time to be digested [22][23]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is expected to face significant pressure due to high base effects from 2025, with overall performance likely to remain subdued [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][4][59] Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [3][7] - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, and patience is required for potential investment opportunities [3][7] - The report highlights that the stock price turning point may occur before the fundamental turning point, suggesting a need for cautious observation [3][7] Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report anticipates a significant decline in liquor demand, with banquet performance below expectations and gift demand decreasing [3][7] - The current high inventory levels in channels will require time to digest, and the consumption scenarios are still recovering, leading to weak demand [3][7] - Key recommendations include maintaining patience for high-dividend stocks and waiting for potential buying opportunities in quality stocks [3][7] Brand Performance - Moutai is performing the best, while Wuliangye is trading volume for price [8][9] - Moutai's expected sales decline is in single digits, with prices slightly down to around 1780-1835 yuan [8] - Wuliangye's sales are expected to drop by about 15%, with current prices around 810-830 yuan [8] - Guojiao 1573 is controlling inventory to maintain prices, with expected sales declines of 20-30% [8][9] Regional Liquor Situation - Feedback from various regions indicates a general decline in sales, with specific brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing varying performance [11][19] - The report notes that the business and banquet consumption scenarios are under pressure, with overall sales expected to decline by 30-25% during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [44][49] - The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of inventory levels and sales performance across different brands and regions [11][19] Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the food and beverage sector, highlighting projected net profits and PE ratios for companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [53]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price conflict between e-commerce platforms and liquor companies is intensifying, with promotional prices for well-known liquor brands falling below wholesale prices, raising concerns among liquor merchants about the sustainability of such pricing strategies [1][2]. Group 1: E-commerce Impact on Liquor Pricing - E-commerce platforms are employing limited-time subsidies, resulting in prices for products like Feitian Moutai dropping to 1700 RMB per bottle, below the wholesale price of 1780 RMB [1]. - Major liquor brands, including Wuliangye, are also seeing their promotional prices undercutting wholesale prices, with Wuliangye's core product priced at 769 RMB compared to a wholesale price of 840 RMB [1]. - The trend of e-commerce platforms offering lower prices is leading to increased caution among offline retailers, who are reluctant to stock up due to price volatility [1][2]. Group 2: Shift in Sales Dynamics - The traditional dominance of offline sales in the liquor industry is being challenged as e-commerce platforms increasingly offer low-priced liquor, disrupting the price control previously held by liquor companies [2]. - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with companies struggling to manage e-commerce pricing effectively [2]. - The internet penetration rate for liquor sales has increased from under 10% to approximately 20% due to recent e-commerce promotions, with projections suggesting it could reach 50% in the next five years [2]. Group 3: Future of Liquor Sales - The rise of e-commerce is prompting a necessary change in the sales model for liquor, as online sales now offer traceability and lower prices, potentially leading to the exit of half of traditional offline liquor retailers in the next three years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price conflict between e-commerce platforms and liquor companies is intensifying, with promotional prices for major liquor brands falling below wholesale prices, putting pressure on offline channels [2][3]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Major liquor brands are offering significant discounts, with prices for products like Feitian Moutai dropping from a market retail price of approximately 1900 RMB to 1700 RMB, while the wholesale price is around 1780 RMB [2]. - Wuliangye's core product, Pu Wuliang, is being sold at a promotional price of 769 RMB, compared to a wholesale price of 840 RMB [2]. - Other well-known brands, including Shanxi Fenjiu and Jian Nan Chun, are also selling below wholesale prices [2]. Group 2: Impact on Offline Channels - Due to price fluctuations, offline retailers are cautious about stocking inventory, affecting the sales rhythm of distributors [2]. - Traditionally, liquor prices would rise before major holidays, but this year there has been no increase, with expectations of further price declines post-holiday [2]. Group 3: E-commerce Influence - E-commerce platforms are increasingly offering lower prices, leading to a shift in consumer behavior towards online price comparisons, which pressures offline sales [3]. - The normalization of low-price promotions on e-commerce platforms is raising concerns among distributors about future profitability [3]. - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with companies struggling to control e-commerce pricing [3]. Group 4: Internet Penetration and Future Trends - The internet penetration rate for liquor sales has increased from under 10% to around 20% due to recent e-commerce promotions, with expectations to reach 50% in the next five years [3]. - The shift towards online sales necessitates changes in the sales model, as e-commerce now offers traceability and lower prices, potentially leading to the exit of many traditional offline liquor retailers [4].

Core Insights - The ongoing price conflict between e-commerce platforms and liquor companies is intensifying, with promotional prices for major liquor brands falling below wholesale prices in offline markets [1] - E-commerce platforms are employing limited-time subsidies, leading to lower prices than wholesale, which is putting additional pressure on offline channels [1][5] - The trend of online price comparison among consumers is becoming habitual, forcing offline sellers to reduce prices discreetly, further impacting their profit margins [5] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Major liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are seeing promotional prices significantly lower than their wholesale prices, with Moutai priced at approximately 1700 RMB per bottle compared to a wholesale price of 1780 RMB [1] - Other brands, such as Wuliangye, are also experiencing similar price drops, with their core product priced at 769 RMB per bottle against a wholesale price of 840 RMB [1] - The overall expectation is that liquor prices may continue to decline post-holiday, contrasting with the typical price increase seen during festive seasons [1] Group 2: E-commerce Impact - The penetration rate of e-commerce in the liquor industry has increased from under 10% to around 20% due to recent promotional activities, with projections suggesting it could reach 50% in the next five years [5][6] - The shift towards online sales is prompting a reevaluation of traditional sales models, as e-commerce now offers traceability and lower prices, which could lead to the exit of many traditional offline liquor retailers [6] - The current environment is characterized by a low-price competition cycle among e-commerce platforms, which is harming the traditional liquor distribution system [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Wuliangye has announced its recruitment plan for the second half of 2025, aiming to hire 141 individuals, with some positions requiring physical fitness tests [1] - Specific physical tests include a 3000-meter run and a 200-meter weighted shuttle run, which has attracted attention [1] - The recruitment process will consist of a comprehensive examination that includes a written test (30%), a physical fitness test (30%), and an interview (40%) [2]

Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - The recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period, expected to boost consumer spending, instead revealed a disappointing market performance, with widespread discount promotions failing to ignite shopping enthusiasm [1][3] - Many products, including high-end liquor and cigarettes, are experiencing significant price drops, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards health and rational spending [3][9] - Sales of high-end liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have declined sharply, with Moutai's price dropping from 2200 yuan to 1740 yuan, a decrease of over 20% [5][6][7] Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - The social status associated with luxury goods, such as high-end liquor and cigarettes, is diminishing, as consumers prioritize health and practicality over social capital [11][13] - The market for premium products, including mooncakes and crabs, is shifting towards more affordable options, with consumers increasingly rejecting high-priced items in favor of better value [19][21] - The demand for traditional luxury items is declining, as evidenced by the poor sales of extravagant mooncake gift boxes and the reduced interest in high-end crabs from the Yangcheng Lake region [23][39] Group 3: Automotive Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a significant downturn, with showrooms unusually quiet during the holiday period, contrasting sharply with previous years [25] - Both traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles are engaged in aggressive price competition, with notable discounts being offered across various brands [27][29] - Consumer hesitation and a preference for electric vehicles, driven by lower operating costs and increased charging infrastructure, are reshaping market dynamics [31][37] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The overall decline in consumer spending during the holiday season reflects a deeper transformation in value systems, moving away from traditional consumption patterns towards more pragmatic choices [39][41] - The market is increasingly favoring brands that offer transparent pricing and high product quality, signaling a shift towards a more informed and rational consumer base [41]