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1月30日每日研选丨白酒“回马枪”,是反弹还是反转?
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2026-01-29 23:53
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the liquor sector, particularly on January 29, indicates a potential turning point for the industry, driven by multiple factors including short-term market signals, low valuations, and macroeconomic easing expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the liquor sector saw a significant rally, with the Shenwan liquor index rising over 5%, reflecting strong performance from multiple stocks [1]. - The high-end liquor prices have established a "price bottom," with Moutai's bottle price stabilizing around 1560 yuan and Wuliangye's price also showing stability [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Dividend Appeal - The liquor sector's valuation is at a historical low of 4.1%, suggesting a high safety margin and potential for rebound [2]. - The sector's dividend yield is approximately 3.64%, with Wuliangye leading at over 5%, making it attractive for risk-averse investors [2]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - Expectations of macroeconomic easing, particularly regarding potential quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve, could open up monetary policy space in China, potentially driving consumption upgrades and benefiting the liquor sector [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The liquor industry may be on the verge of recovery after a deep adjustment, with expectations of improved sales and financial performance in the latter half of 2026 [2]. - High-end liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are actively reforming marketing strategies and expanding consumer bases, positioning themselves for future growth [2]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on high-end liquor leaders with strong brand certainty, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional companies likely to benefit from local consumption trends [3]. - Monitoring post-Spring Festival inventory reduction and price stability will be crucial for assessing the industry's bottoming out [3].
五粮液:公司承诺2024-2026年度分红率不低于70%且分红金额不低于200亿元
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-01-29 14:13
(文章来源:证券日报) 证券日报网讯 1月29日,五粮液在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,公司将坚定践行此前发布的三年股 东回报规划,承诺2024-2026年度分红率不低于70%且分红金额不低于200亿元。 ...
白酒板块,大涨!
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2026-01-29 14:00
1月29日,以酒类、文化传媒为代表的传统行业板块领涨A股,引发市场关注。 中信证券消费产业首席分析师姜娅认为,2026年以来,白酒行业发生了较多大事件和变化,推动白酒行 业渠道升级和突破。短期而言,白酒龙头企业开始积极拥抱消费者,消费者触达和消费者教育工作热度 空前;中部企业适当降价,维持市场量价平衡;尾部企业停产、出清库存。长期来看,"以消费者为核 心"的渠道协同体系料将成为行业下轮周期中的核心竞争力,需要企业逐步提升拓客能力、服务能力和 场景运营能力。 联合资信最新观点提出,从2025年年底中央经济工作会议等一系列会议精神来看,在消费端,国家仍将 坚持"促消费",并可能逐步释放相关政策。在供给侧,面对行业产能过剩的局面,国家和地方政府仍将 限制新增低效产能、鼓励行业兼并重组,有利于行业由粗放式增长向集约式发展转型。短期内,白酒行 业仍面临较大压力。长期看,经营者两极分化、优胜劣汰的局面将加剧,行业集中度的提高有望使头部 企业保持较强的发展韧性。 1月29日,白酒概念指数最终收涨9.93%,五粮液(000858)、泸州老窖(000568)等17只个股涨停, 行业龙头贵州茅台(600519)收报1437.72 ...
五粮液:地方国资一直以来非常支持公司的发展
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-01-29 13:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Wuliangye (000858) has received consistent support from local state-owned assets for its development [1] Group 2 - Wuliangye responded to investor inquiries on an interactive platform, emphasizing the backing from local state-owned enterprises [1]
白酒今天集体涨停的原因是啥?看这7张图
表舅是养基大户· 2026-01-29 13:26
先说个题外话,今天公布了一个数字,下图,去年12月单月,全国彩票销售同比下降9.1%,而25年合计还是增长的,这意味着相对24年同期, 以及25年的1-11月,12月单月确实跌的很多且很猛。 与此同时, 25年12月A股的单月成交额 是43.26万亿,而24年12月同期是35.44万亿,同比增22%;而25年的1-11月的月均是34.2万亿,12月单月 相对前11个月的月均,环比增26.4%。 从以上这个数据对比中,你能得出什么结论? 按照1月A股和贵金属的热度,咱们合理推测一下,1月彩票销售额同比、环比都会缩得比较厉害。 ...... 说回今天的A股——今天最靓的仔,有且仅有一个,就是被万众投资者"diss"的 白酒 。 我们用几张图,带大家聊聊今天的白酒,也试图复盘一下,大批量涨停背后的过程和逻辑。 第一张。 下图, 中证白酒一共18个成分股,今天除了茅台,全部涨停 ,这就意味着,买盘是以指数产品、或者指数形式,进行了大规模的扫货式买入,以至于雨 露均沾,集体涨停。 而茅台之所以没涨停,还是体量的问题,今日这18个票合计成交600亿出头,而茅台单只成交额就超过260亿,占比接近一半,这意味着,这笔突然涌入 ...
五粮液:1月29日收盘,公司市值为4300亿元
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-01-29 12:48
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Wuliangye's market capitalization reached 430 billion yuan as of the close on January 29 [2] Group 2 - Wuliangye responded to investor inquiries on its interactive platform [2] - The information was reported by Securities Daily [2]
五粮液:近五年累计分红已超768亿元
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2026-01-29 12:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that cash inventory is an asset indicator for the company, while market capitalization is a result of market valuation, indicating no inherent connection between the two [1] - The company places a high priority on protecting investor rights and has continuously increased cash dividend efforts in recent years [1] - Over the past five years, the company has distributed more than 76.8 billion yuan in dividends to shareholders [1]
白酒股逆袭暴涨,“老登”股或再次轮动
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2026-01-29 11:52
2026.01.29 业内人士认为,贵州茅台等暴涨,接下来预计蓝筹股将会再次发力,因为稳定的业绩、较高的分红比 例,预计春节前其他高股息的"老登"股们将会出现轮动行情,包括银行、电力、医药等板块,投资者都 可以重点关注,抓紧春节前投资机会。 奶酪基金投资经理潘俊向第一财经分析, 1月29日白酒板块大幅上涨,催化来自地产预期改善与资金面 回暖,指数ETF成交量回落导致权重抛压缓解,同时批发价格延续回升、线下动销同比正增、回款发货 稳步推进,形成"以价换量"的积极信号,白酒行情持续性需跟踪春节前后价格能否继续回升。 潘俊认为, 在当前低利率及宏观不确定性环境下,高股息策略已从单纯的"防御"属性进化为"攻守兼 备"的底仓配置。在全球降息周期开启的背景下,高股息资产对全球配置型资金具有极强吸引力,资金 买入不仅是看中股息,更是交易中国资产的估值修复。 慧研智投投资顾问李谦对第一财经说,1月29日之前,本轮结构性市场行情呈现明显分化特征。以黄金 为代表的资源类板块及芯片、半导体等科技主线持续获得市场资金青睐,涨幅显著;而高股息板块中的 白酒、银行、电力、医药等领域则表现相对低迷,股价持续走低并创阶段性新低。临近春节,市 ...
中国必选消费品1月价格报告:次高端及以上白酒分化加剧,本期无大众品折扣减小
Haitong Securities International· 2026-01-29 11:28
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - There is an intensified divergence among mid-to-high-end baijiu products, with no discount contraction observed in food and beverage categories [1]. - The report highlights that the wholesale prices of various baijiu brands have shown stability or slight changes, with some brands experiencing price increases while others remain flat or decrease [3][4][35]. - Discounts on representative products in condiments, liquid milk, and soft drinks have widened compared to the end of December, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [19][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) and Moutai 1935 are reported at 1600, 1580, and 630 yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and -10 yuan compared to last month [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 830 yuan, reflecting a +10 yuan increase from the previous month [35]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 850 yuan, unchanged from last month [35]. Discount Trends - The average discount rate for condiments decreased from 87.1% to 85.0%, while liquid milk discounts fell from 62.8% to 61.4% [19][22]. - In contrast, discounts for beer, infant formula, and convenience foods remained stable, with beer discounts slightly increasing from 80.3% to 80.7% [20][22][32]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Qingdao Beer - China Feihe - Others [1].
今日白酒板块表现强势,皇台酒业、酒鬼酒、金徽酒、水井坊、泸州老窖、金种子酒领涨,板块整理
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-29 10:46
最新股价:14.48元 日涨幅:+10.03% 亮点:甘肃区域性白酒(核心股)企业,拥有一定的品牌历史积淀。 酒鬼酒(000799.SZ) 白酒(核心股)板块全线飘红,多股午后涨停!消费复苏预期点燃板块热情,皇台酒业、酒鬼酒、金徽 酒、水井坊、泸州老窖、金种子酒领涨,板块整理如下: 最新股价:56.85元 皇台酒业(000995.SZ) 日涨幅:+10.00% 日涨幅:+10.01% 亮点:中国西北地区优势白酒(核心股)企业,旗下拥有"金徽"、"陇南春"两大品牌。 水井坊(600779.SH) 最新股价:41.99元 日涨幅:+10.01% 亮点:主营"水井坊"系列高端白酒(核心股),是中国知名的高端白酒品牌。 泸州老窖(000568.SZ) 最新股价:124.23元 日涨幅:+10.00% 亮点:中国馥郁香型白酒(核心股)创立者,产品具有"前浓、中清、后酱"的独特风格。 金徽酒(603919.SH) 最新股价:21.54元 亮点:浓香型白酒(核心股)鼻祖,"国窖1573"是中国白酒鉴赏标准级酒品。 金种子酒(600199.SH) 最新股价:10.30元 日涨幅:+10.04% 亮点:深耕安徽地区的白酒(核心 ...