反内卷下的钢铁板块投资机会 20250613 摘要 反内卷政策推动钢铁行业供给侧改革，加速行业出清、兼并整合和龙头 集中，旨在改善无序竞争和同质化竞争局面，为钢铁行业带来长期投资 机会。政策导向明确，但需关注地方政府执行力度。 钢铁企业盈利能力受供需关系影响显著。螺纹钢利润超过 100 元时，企 业增产意愿强烈，但易导致钢价下跌，盈利难以持续修复。成本端，焦 煤和矿石价格下跌有助于改善钢企盈利，但需关注海外矿山成本上升风 险。 房地产市场下滑拖累建筑用钢需求，房屋新开工面积和施工面积均下降。 基建投资虽有所增长，但难以完全抵消房建下滑的影响，预计 2025 年 建筑用钢需求将下降 5%-6%。 全球矿石供应预计增加，新芒度项目等低成本矿投放将打破寡头垄断格 局，优化成本结构。中国生铁产量压减有助于优化全球矿石供应格局， 但需关注海外钢铁生产对废钢的依赖。 钢铁行业库存周期处于历史低位，反映市场悲观预期。低库存成为供需 关系的缓冲垫，若后续供需紧张，补库周期启动将加剧供需紧张程度， 推动市场改善。 Q&A 钢铁板块目前的投资机会和核心逻辑是什么？ 钢铁板块目前处于盈利周期的底部，尽管从去年三季度开始有边际改善， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry, suggesting to focus on the bottom repair opportunities in steel stocks [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, but improved market sentiment has led to an increase in steel prices [2][3]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry has improved in the first half of the year due to a significant decline in raw material prices, which has positively impacted steel production costs [3][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Central Financial Committee is expected to enhance market conditions for the steel industry, leading to both valuation and performance recovery in the long term [4][10]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - As of July 11, the production of five major steel products totaled 8.7272 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 124,000 tons [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3981 million tons, down 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.7307 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 121,900 tons [1][2]. - The consumption changes for specific products included a decrease of 33,700 tons for rebar, 29,100 tons for wire rod, and 18,600 tons for hot-rolled products [1]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory was reported at 13.3958 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 3,500 tons [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 9.1401 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [1]. Profitability Data - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills was stable at 2,256 yuan per ton [1]. - As of July 11, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar was 196 yuan, hot-rolled sheets 142 yuan, and cold-rolled sheets 31 yuan, with week-on-week increases of 9 yuan, 16 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Group 1 - Insurance capital has become a significant force in the capital market, with at least 20 instances of shareholding increases in A-shares and H-shares this year, primarily targeting stable dividend-paying assets like banks and public utilities [1][2] - Recent announcements indicate that Li'an Life and Xintai Life have increased their holdings in Jiangnan Water and Hualing Steel, respectively, with Li'an Life acquiring 46.99 million shares (5.03% of total shares) and Xintai Life acquiring 343 million shares (5.00% of total shares) [2][3] - The trend of insurance capital actively participating in shareholding increases is attributed to a low interest rate environment, leading to a search for stable cash flow and strong performance companies [1][6] Group 2 - The increase in shareholding by insurance capital is seen as a response to "asset scarcity," with a focus on high-dividend equities to enhance returns and offset the pressure from low fixed-income asset yields [6][7] - Regulatory changes, such as adjustments to the equity asset ratio for insurance funds, have facilitated greater participation of insurance capital in the equity market, creating favorable conditions for shareholding increases [6][7] - The rise in shareholding activities is viewed as a positive signal for the long-term development of the capital market, potentially enhancing investor confidence and attracting more capital [7][8] Group 3 - The participation of various capital types, including financial capital, industrial capital, and private equity, in shareholding increases reflects a positive outlook on the long-term performance of the companies involved [7][8] - The concentration of insurance capital in high-dividend sectors, particularly banks, raises concerns about potential systemic risks due to high industry concentration [7][8] - Future strategies for insurance capital may involve diversifying into less cyclical and more diversified high-dividend sectors to balance returns and risks [8]

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital has become a significant force in the capital market, actively acquiring shares in A-share and H-share listed companies, particularly in stable dividend-paying sectors like banking and public utilities [1][5][12]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Activity - Insurance capital has made at least 20 acquisitions of listed companies this year, focusing on stable cash flow and dividend-yielding assets [1][5]. - Recent notable acquisitions include Li'an Life increasing its stake in Jiangnan Waterworks by 46.99 million shares (5.03%) and Xintai Life acquiring 343 million shares (5.00%) of Hualing Steel [4][5]. - Hongkang Life has also increased its stake in Zhengzhou Bank, reaching 6.68% after multiple acquisitions [4]. Group 2: Market Environment and Strategy - The current low-interest-rate environment has led funds to seek companies with stable cash flows and strong performance as optimal investment choices [2][14]. - The "asset shortage" phenomenon has intensified, pushing insurance capital to invest in high-dividend equities to enhance returns and offset the pressure from fixed-income assets [14][20]. - Regulatory changes, such as adjustments to insurance capital investment ratios, have facilitated greater participation of insurance funds in equity markets [13][12]. Group 3: Broader Participation - Besides insurance capital, other entities like Asset Management Companies (AMCs) and private equity firms have also engaged in share acquisitions [7][8][9]. - The involvement of various capital types, including financial and industrial capital, reflects a positive outlook on the long-term development of the capital market [17]. Group 4: Market Impact and Future Outlook - Increased share acquisitions serve as a market confidence booster, attracting more capital and promoting a virtuous cycle in the market [19]. - The concentration of insurance capital in specific sectors, particularly banking, raises concerns about potential systemic risks due to high industry concentration [20][21]. - Future strategies may involve diversifying investments into less cyclical and higher-dividend sectors to balance risk and return [21].

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital is increasingly entering the market, with significant investments in listed companies, indicating a trend towards high-frequency and concentrated acquisitions in 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Activity - In 2025, insurance companies have made 19 acquisitions involving 15 listed companies, matching the total number for the entire year of 2024 [1][6]. - Notable acquisitions include Xintai Life Insurance increasing its stake in Hualing Steel to 345 million shares (5% of total shares) and Lianan Life Insurance acquiring 46.9954 million shares (5.03% of total shares) in Jiangnan Water [1][2][4]. - The trend shows a preference for high-dividend equity assets, particularly in sectors like banking and public utilities, while also diversifying into undervalued cyclical stocks like Hualing Steel [1][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Context - The increase in insurance capital activity is driven by supportive policies, optimized accounting standards, and a scarcity of alternative assets, leading to a focus on high-dividend equity assets [1][7]. - The total amount of insurance funds invested reached 33.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with equity assets accounting for approximately 19.6% of this total [6]. - Recent regulatory changes have allowed for a higher allocation of equity assets, further encouraging insurance companies to invest in the stock market [6][7]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Xintai Life Insurance's investment in Hualing Steel is based on a positive outlook for the company's future and aims to enhance its influence and share in the long-term benefits of Hualing Steel's growth [7][8]. - Lianan Life Insurance's acquisition of Jiangnan Water is characterized as a long-term investment based on the company's value and the insurance firm's own allocation needs [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights the steel industry's two main contradictions: weak demand and strong costs, with the industry entering its fourth year of a downward cycle in 2025. The effective demand has significantly decreased, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to a 42.9% drop in demand for steel used in real estate from 377 million tons in 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024 [6][18][25]. - The report anticipates a marginal rebound in the steel sector due to weakening costs and resilient demand, driven by a decline in coking coal prices and an expected increase in iron ore supply [6][37][45]. Demand and Cost Analysis - Weak demand is characterized by insufficient effective demand, making it easier to maintain volume than prices. The real estate sector's demand for steel has plummeted, contributing to a significant overall decline in steel prices [6][18][25]. - Strong costs are attributed to tight supply of raw materials like iron ore and coking coal, which have severely squeezed steel profits. The profit share of steel in the industrial chain has dropped to 16%, significantly below the historical average of 28% [6][31][34]. Supply-Side Strategies - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing excess capacity in the steel industry, which is expected to stabilize steel prices and improve profitability for steel companies. A potential reduction of 30 million tons in crude steel production in 2025 could lead to a price increase of 229 yuan per ton for rebar [6][8][37]. - Long-term capacity reduction is expected to be gradual, with approximately 20% of capacity facing compliance challenges, particularly among small private enterprises, which may face pressure to exit the market starting in 2026 [6][8][37]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-end steel products, such as Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, which are expected to maintain profitability and enhance shareholder returns through capital expenditure and asset optimization [6][8][37]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in valuation and performance for companies with low price-to-book ratios, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel, as well as opportunities in state-owned enterprise reforms and mergers and acquisitions [6][8][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy has driven an increase in steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for value recovery in the steel sector [3][4]. - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 5.27%, compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index [11]. - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector saw a weekly increase of 5.27%, outperforming the market, with specific segments like long products rising by 8.32% and flat products by 6.95% [3][11]. - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4085 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.44 tons but a year-on-year increase of 1.41 tons [3][26]. Supply Data - As of July 4, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.3%, down 0.54 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization was at 51.1%, down 3.45 percentage points [3][26]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.06 thousand tons [3][26]. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products increased to 8.853 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 5.41 thousand tons [3][35]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 107 thousand tons, up 0.81 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting an increase of 8.23% [3][35]. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products rose to 9.161 million tons, an increase of 9.62 thousand tons week-on-week, but down 29.01% year-on-year [3][42]. - Factory inventory decreased to 4.238 million tons, down 9.72 thousand tons week-on-week, and down 13.43% year-on-year [3][42]. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,390.0 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 45.42 CNY/ton [3][49]. - The comprehensive index for special steel decreased to 6,576.5 CNY/ton, down 14.61 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][49]. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 187 CNY, an increase of 42.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][58]. - The average iron water cost was 2,148 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.0 CNY/ton [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [4].

今年以来险资频频举牌，尤其在公用事业、银行领域布局明显加快，近期更是少见举牌钢铁业。7月3 日，"湖南钢铁巨头"华菱钢铁（000932）公告称，信泰人寿已通过二级市场集中竞价方式购买该公司股 份至3.45亿股，占公司总股本的比例已达到5%，触及举牌线。险资举牌钢铁企业较为少见。数据显 示，截至2025年第一季度，在46家A股钢铁企业中，仅有15家企业被险资持股，华菱钢铁、抚顺特钢 （600399）、武进不锈（603878）有3家险资持股，其余均仅有1至2家险资持股。(21世纪经济报道) ...

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index increased by 1.32% this week, closing at 4662.51 points on July 4 [4] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 18341.42 billion yuan, with a week-on-week decrease of 9.22% [4] Top Performing Stocks - The top ten stocks with the highest gains this week included: 1. Tian Shou Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a gain of 23.34% 2. Daqian Energy (688303.SH) with a gain of 22.18% 3. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a gain of 18.93% 4. Lepu Medical (300003.SZ) with a gain of 17.99% 5. Giant Network (002558.SZ) with a gain of 17.42% 6. Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) with a gain of 17.32% 7. Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) with a gain of 15.37% 8. Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ) with a gain of 14.57% 9. Shenzhou Taiyue (300002.SZ) with a gain of 13.70% 10. Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) with a gain of 13.36% [3] Underperforming Stocks - The ten stocks with the largest declines this week included: 1. Hengxuan Technology (688608.SH) with a loss of 33.40% 2. Huazhi Shihua (688120.SH) with a loss of 32.34% 3. Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ) with a loss of 22.87% 4. Weining Health (300253.SZ) with a loss of 8.77% 5. China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH) with a loss of 7.07% 6. Xingyuan Material (300568.SZ) with a loss of 6.99% 7. Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH) with a loss of 6.50% 8. Beiyi Innovation (603986.SH) with a loss of 5.93% 9. Jixiang Airlines (603885.SH) with a loss of 5.84% 10. New Zhou Bang (300037.SZ) with a loss of 5.49% [3] Fund Performance - This week, 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose, with Pu Yin An Sheng leading at a 1.72% increase [5] - The top three funds by size were Huatai-PB (200.88 billion yuan), Guotai (181.5 billion yuan), and GF Fund (174.22 billion yuan) [5] Market Trends - A new trend has emerged in the Hong Kong stock market where A-share listed technology companies are increasingly pursuing secondary listings in Hong Kong [7] - The secondary listings provide diversified financing channels and enhance international market recognition for the companies [7] - The median discount rate for five companies planning secondary listings in Hong Kong is approximately -17% [7] - The core factors driving asset performance are expected to shift from external to internal influences in the second half of the year [7]