Core Viewpoint - The steel sector experienced a rise of 1.47% on January 20, with Xinxing Casting leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.01% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1]. - Xinxing Casting's stock price increased by 4.48% to 4.66, with a trading volume of 1.4421 million shares and a transaction value of 664 million [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Hualing Steel's stock rose by 4.24% to 5.90, with a trading volume of 1.6286 million shares and a transaction value of 949 million [1]. - New Steel's stock increased by 3.15% to 3.93, with a trading volume of 0.9027 million shares and a transaction value of 350 million [1]. - Liugang's stock price rose by 2.37% to 5.18, with a trading volume of 0.2365 million shares and a transaction value of 121 million [1]. Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - The steel sector saw a net outflow of 154 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.6 billion [2]. - The main funds showed a net outflow of 52.18 million from Chongqing Steel, while retail investors had a net inflow of 2.68 million [3]. - Shandong Steel experienced a net inflow of 15.79 million from main funds, with a net outflow of 1.23 million from retail investors [3].

证券日报网讯 1月19日，华菱钢铁在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，钢铁行业盈利水平会随着宏观经 济周期、行业供需关系等因素的波动而变化。同时，各钢企在地理位置、品种结构和产品布局、竞争战 略上有各自特点，下游领域需求景气度差异使得不同钢企之间盈利水平存在差异。公司保持战略定力， 在产品结构调整等方面的持续投入，是着眼于公司长远发展、提升长期竞争力的战略举措。公司重大项 目投资严格按照公司章程和内部制度进行充分论证，这些重大技改和高端品种项目从建成投产到达产达 效，再到实现预期经济效益均需要合理时间和周期。公司在专注于做精做强钢铁主业的同时，也关注产 业链上下游合适的投资布局机会。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][4]. - The report highlights that despite a long period of micro-profitability in the industry, market-driven supply adjustments have begun, and if supply policies are implemented, the pace of supply contraction may accelerate [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.2612 million tons, a decrease of 1.77% week-on-week but an increase of 4.33% year-on-year [6]. - The total steel inventory was 12.47 million tons, down 0.55% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [6]. - The average profit margin for rebar was 199.4 CNY/ton, down 15.2 CNY/ton from the previous week [6]. Production and Capacity Utilization - The production of five major steel products was 8.192 million tons, a slight increase of 0.08% week-on-week [6]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous week [6][29]. - The capacity utilization rate for these mills was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week-on-week [6][29]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices decreased by 0.31% to 812 CNY/ton [48]. - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 165.55 million tons, an increase of 1.72% [52]. - The total shipment volume from major iron ore producers decreased, with Brazil's shipments down 7.37% and Australia's down 2.29% [53][61]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hesteel, as well as those with competitive advantages like CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Materials [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [6]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][4]. - The report highlights that despite a long period of micro-profitability in the industry, market-driven supply adjustments have begun, which could accelerate the industry's upward progress if supply policies are implemented [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.2612 million tons, a decrease of 1.77% week-on-week but an increase of 4.33% year-on-year [6][20]. - Total steel inventory was 12.47 million tons, down 0.55% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [6][12]. - The average profit margin for rebar was 199.4 CNY/ton, down 15.2 CNY/ton from the previous week [6][41]. Production and Capacity Utilization - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week [6][29]. - The capacity utilization rate for these mills was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week-on-week [6][29]. - The total steel production was 8.1921 million tons, a slight increase of 0.08% week-on-week [6][40]. Raw Materials - Iron ore inventory at ports reached 165.55 million tons, an increase of 1.72% week-on-week, marking a historical high [6][52]. - The spot price of iron ore remained unchanged, while futures prices decreased slightly [6][48]. - The total shipment volume of the four major iron ore producers decreased, with Brazil's shipments down 7.37% and Australia's down 2.29% [6][53][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [6]. - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies like Hebei Resources and Erdos, which may benefit from a recovery in demand [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key steel companies, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the coming months [10]. Core Insights - The steel industry has experienced a fluctuating demand pattern, with a peak in early 2025 followed by a decline, leading to an increase in the material-to-steel ratio, which reached 1.69 in December [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption grew by 2.9% year-on-year in 2025, although December saw a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2]. - The net export of steel in 2025 reached 11.296 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, driven by strong exports in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3]. - The report highlights a shift in economic drivers from investment to consumption, with fixed asset investment declining by 3.8% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 3.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Steel Production and Consumption - In December 2025, crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a 10.3% year-on-year decrease, with an annual total of 960.81 million tons, down 4.4% [6]. - Steel production in December was 115.31 million tons, a 3.8% year-on-year decrease, while the annual total was 1,446.12 million tons, up 3.1% [6]. Export and Import Dynamics - December steel exports were 11.30 million tons, up 16.2% year-on-year, with total exports for the year at 11.902 million tons, a 7.5% increase [6]. - Steel imports in December were 520,000 tons, down 16.3% year-on-year, with total imports for the year at 6.06 million tons, down 11.1% [6]. Economic Context and Policy Implications - The report notes that the Chinese economy is transitioning to a more stable phase, with GDP growth projected at 5% for 2025, reflecting a pattern of high demand followed by a decline [2]. - Recent structural interest rate cuts by the central bank are expected to support credit flow to specific industries, indicating a potential for economic stabilization [8]. - The valuation of the steel sector has improved, moving from absolute undervaluation to a moderately low position, suggesting room for further gains [8]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks, including: - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) [10] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) [10] - Baosteel (宝钢股份) [10] - New Steel (新钢股份) [10] - Jiuli Special Materials (久立特材) [10] - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (甬金股份) [10] - Changbao Steel (常宝股份) [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Xining Steel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the coming months [10]. Core Insights - The steel industry has experienced a fluctuating demand pattern, with a peak in early 2025 followed by a decline. The material-to-steel ratio has reached a new high of 1.69 in December, with an annual average of 1.51, suggesting a shift in consumption patterns [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption increased by 2.9% year-on-year in 2025, although December saw a decline of 5.0% compared to the previous year. The economic growth rate is projected to be 5% for 2025, with a quarterly breakdown showing a decreasing trend [2]. - The net export of steel reached 11.296 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, driven by strong demand in the automotive and home appliance sectors. Exports to ASEAN countries have significantly increased, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In December 2025, crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 10.3% year-on-year, while the total for the year was 960.81 million tons, down 4.4%. Steel production in December was 115.31 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year, with an annual total of 1,446.12 million tons, up 3.1% [6]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China is expected to be more accurately estimated by using steel production growth rates instead of crude steel production growth rates [2]. Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment in 2025 is projected to be 48.5186 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous year, while retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% [2]. - The report highlights a transition from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth as China's economy matures [2]. Market Outlook - The recent structural interest rate cuts by the central bank are expected to support credit growth in specific sectors, indicating a potential for economic stabilization. The steel sector's valuation has improved, moving from absolute undervaluation to a moderately low position, suggesting room for further gains [8]. - Recommended stocks include Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, which are expected to benefit from various economic cycles and trends [8].

证券日报网讯 1月19日，华菱钢铁在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，钢铁行业盈利水平会随着宏观经 济周期、行业供需关系等因素的波动而变化。公司保持战略定力，在产品结构调整等方面的持续投入， 是着眼于公司长远发展、提升长期竞争力的战略举措。近年投资布局的重大技改和高端品种项目从建成 投产到达产达效，再到实现预期经济效益均需要合理时间和周期。公司积极向优秀同行对标学习，未来 将继续保持战略定力，加快推进"四化"转型，在技术创新、品种结构高端化、降本增效、市场开拓等方 面持续发力，进一步提升高附加值产品占比和盈利能力。 （编辑 任世碧） ...

Market Performance - The steel sector saw an increase of 0.82% on January 19, with Nanjing Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Nanjing Steel (600282) closed at 5.46, up 3.80% with a trading volume of 700,900 shares and a transaction value of 380 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Sijiang Steel (600808) at 4.13, up 3.77% with a transaction value of 622 million yuan [1] - Hualing Steel (000932) at 5.66, up 3.28% with a transaction value of 576 million yuan [1] - Benxi Steel (000761) at 3.30, up 3.12% with a transaction value of 51.21 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The steel sector experienced a net outflow of 179 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 176 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Sijiang Steel had a main fund net inflow of 84.80 million yuan, but a retail net outflow of 76.47 million yuan [3] - Hualing Steel had a main fund net inflow of 40.99 million yuan, with a retail net inflow of 0.78 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a potential recovery in profits for the steel industry. The report highlights that production of major steel products has increased, while total inventory has decreased, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics [7][30]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of steel manufacturers is expected to recover in the short term due to improved supply-demand conditions and stable cost support from raw materials [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Steel Market - As of January 16, steel prices have risen, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,320 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other products like high-line and hot-rolled steel also saw price increases [13][14]. 2. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.19 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 11,700 tons to 865,320 tons, indicating a positive trend in inventory management [7][30]. 3. Profitability - The report notes a decline in steel profits, with average margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 13 CNY/ton, 4 CNY/ton, and 18 CNY/ton respectively. However, the overall outlook for profit recovery remains optimistic [7][30]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - General Steel Leaders: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel - Special Steel Sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel - Pipe Manufacturers: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. - Raw Material Sector: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium ore), Fangda Carbon [7][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [9]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a recovery in valuation, with absolute valuations moving from undervalued to moderately low levels, indicating potential for absolute returns [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural reforms in the capital market, which are expected to facilitate a shift towards value investing in the steel industry [2]. - The report highlights that the demand for steel is improving, with significant increases in apparent consumption, particularly for rebar [6][41]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 16,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, while steel production has slightly increased [15]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is at 85.5%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [21]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 0.6% [27]. - The social inventory of five major steel products is 8.663 million tons, up 0.1% week-on-week and up 8.7% year-on-year [29]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has improved significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [51]. - Rebar apparent consumption reached 1.903 million tons, up 8.8% week-on-week and 2.8% year-on-year [51]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have weakened, with a decrease in the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have increased [50]. - The price index for imported iron ore is reported at 106.2 USD/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [59]. Price and Profit Analysis - Steel prices are stable with slight increases, and the gross profit margins for steel products are improving [69]. - The comprehensive steel price index is at 122.7, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.2% [70].