证券代码：000933 证券简称：神火股份 公告编号：2025-025 河南神火煤电股份有限公司 股份回购报告书 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1、河南神火煤电股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）以不低于人民币 2.50 亿 元（含）且不超过人民币 4.50 亿元（含）的自有资金，以不超过人民币 20.00 元 /股（含）的价格回购公司发行的人民币普通股（A 股）股票，用于实施公司股权 激励计划。回购期限自董事会审议通过本次回购方案之日起 12 个月内。 2、公司于 2024 年 12 月 30 日召开董事会第九届十四次会议，以 9 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权的表决结果审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》。具体 详见公司于 2024 年 12 月 31 日在《证券时报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证 券日报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《公司董事会第九届 十四次会议决议公告》（公告编号：2024-057）。根据《上市公司股份回购规则》 （以下简称"《回购规则》"）《深圳证券交易所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance has declined primarily due to falling coal prices and production volumes, alongside rising costs of aluminum raw materials [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.07% [2]. - Coal production and sales volumes were 6.739 million tons and 6.7013 million tons, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 6.01% and 7.54% [3]. - The average price of coal products in 2024 was 1,019.3 yuan per ton, down 7.8% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The price of alumina, a key raw material for aluminum production, increased by 37.4% year-on-year, averaging 4,070.6 yuan per ton in 2024 [3]. - As of March 28, 2025, the price of alumina had dropped to 3,120 yuan per ton, a decline of 44.3% since the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The domestic supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is expected to improve from 2024 to 2026, with projected surpluses of 490,000 tons in 2024 and 240,000 tons in 2025, followed by a shortage of 350,000 tons in 2026 [4]. - The company is likely to benefit from a lower carbon tax due to its significant use of hydropower in aluminum production, which results in lower CO2 emissions compared to coal-fired production [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be negatively impacted by a decline in both volume and price in the coal sector, leading to a year-on-year decrease in net profit by 27.07% to 4.307 billion yuan [1]. - In contrast, the profit from electrolytic aluminum is anticipated to improve in 2025 due to a favorable supply-demand balance and a potential increase in aluminum prices [2][3]. - The report highlights that the average price of alumina in Henan has dropped significantly by 44.3% since the beginning of the year, which may benefit the company's profit margins in the future [2]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.307 billion yuan, down 27.07% [1]. - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 5.891 billion yuan and 6.309 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a recovery trend [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.62 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7 [4][14]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts a gross margin of 24.0% for 2025, up from 21.2% in 2024, reflecting improved profitability [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 22.3% in 2025, indicating strong financial performance [14]. - The company's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease to 1.6 by 2025, suggesting potential undervaluation [14][15].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tianlong Group Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and outlook of Tianlong Group, focusing on its coal and aluminum segments, as well as investment returns from associated companies. Key Points and Arguments Overall Performance - Tianlong Group's overall performance for 2024 is in line with expectations, with a profit decline of 27% year-on-year, yet maintaining a stable dividend of 0.81 yuan per share [3][7][4]. - The traditional coal segment's revenue contribution has decreased to below 25%, with significant profit fluctuations [3]. Profit Contributions - Core subsidiary Xinglong Company achieved a profit of 1 billion yuan, while the Xinjiang business generated a scale of 2.2 billion yuan, contributing a total profit of 3.3 billion yuan [3]. - The Yunnan segment reported a pre-tax profit of 1.7 billion yuan, with a scale of approximately 850 million yuan [4]. Investment Returns - Major investment returns stem from Guangxi Longzhou Xinxing Aluminum Industry and Xinzheng Coal Electricity Zhaojiashan Coal Mine, contributing profits of 200 million yuan and 100 million yuan, respectively [5]. Asset Disposal and Impairments - In 2024, the company executed asset swaps involving Shenhuo Power and Shenhuo Carbon, yielding 250 million yuan in asset disposal gains. However, losses from expired mining rights and impairments totaled approximately 150 million yuan [6]. Aluminum Pricing and Cost Expectations - The procurement price for alumina in 2025 is expected to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, with a significant reduction in petroleum coke prices, lowering production costs [9][10]. - The Yunnan carbon project is set to be fully operational by May 2025, with a total capacity of 400,000 tons [11]. Production Plans - The company plans to produce 1.7 million tons of aluminum in 2025, unaffected by seasonal factors, with a consistent quarterly output [15]. - Coal production is projected at 7.2 million tons for 2025, with expectations of stable coal prices [17]. Market Demand and Future Outlook - Despite economic challenges, market demand remains optimistic, particularly in traditional sectors like construction and emerging fields such as new energy [14]. - The company anticipates potential price increases for aluminum as the consumption peak season approaches in April [14]. Challenges and Strategic Focus - The company faces challenges in achieving full production capacity due to regulatory and operational constraints [21][27]. - There is a focus on resource development in Xinjiang, with plans to explore new coal resources [20]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a dividend policy that ensures a payout ratio of no less than 30%, with a long-term focus on stable dividends rather than one-time large distributions [23][24]. Future Capacity Expansion - The company is actively seeking opportunities for capacity expansion but faces difficulties in negotiations and resource acquisition [26]. Aluminum Foil Processing - The aluminum foil processing segment has seen increased competition, with a focus on optimizing the product mix to enhance profitability [22][28]. Conclusion - Tianlong Group's performance reflects a strategic shift towards stabilizing profits amid fluctuating market conditions, with a focus on maintaining dividends and exploring growth opportunities in both coal and aluminum sectors. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with attention to cost management and market demand dynamics.

2024Q4 业绩拆分：氧化铝上涨侵蚀利润。环比来看，主要增利项：费用及税金（4.58 亿元，主要 是研发费用、财务费用环比减少），其他/投资收益(2.74亿元，主要是参股龙州铝业投资收益) ，少数股 东损益（3.17 亿元）。主要减利项：毛利（-12.63 亿元，主要是氧化铝上涨影响），减值损失等（-1.37 亿元），营业外利润（-0.65 亿元），所得税（-0.49 亿元）。 未来看点：1）电解铝成本优势突出，新疆电力价格稳定。公司新疆和云南电解铝产能分别有80 万 吨和90 万吨，新疆因为电价较低，成本处于全国低位，公司成本优势明显，安全垫较厚。云南地区水 电为主，受煤炭影响较小，新疆地区煤炭资源丰富，煤价涨幅也远远低于内陆，成本变动较小，低且稳 定的成本构筑了较深的护城河。2）估值低，煤铝齐飞彰显业绩弹性。公司煤炭为无烟煤和贫瘦煤，顺 周期预期下，煤铝齐飞概率大，公司业绩弹性十足，加上估值低，股价弹性高。 投资建议：公司电解铝成本优势明显，煤铝业绩弹性十足，低估值、高弹性有望催化股价。我们预 计公司2025-2027 年将实现归母净利59.10 亿元、64.81 亿元和70.10 亿元，对应现价的PE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6][41]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in net profit for 2024 due to falling coal prices and production, but anticipates a recovery in 2025 driven by increased aluminum production and stable costs [4][38]. - The company has a significant cost advantage in aluminum production, particularly in Xinjiang, which is expected to enhance profitability [38][41]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 5.91 billion, 6.48 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 7, and 6 [41][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while net profit dropped to 4.307 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.07% [1][9]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 10.059 billion yuan, with a net profit of 768 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 57.38% [1][9]. 2. Production and Profitability Analysis - Coal production decreased by 6.01% to 6.739 million tons, while aluminum production increased by 7.28% to 1.6285 million tons in 2024 [2][18]. - The gross profit per ton of aluminum rose to 4,462 yuan, an increase of 509 yuan, while coal's gross profit per ton fell to 170 yuan, a decrease of 299 yuan [2][18]. 3. Future Operational Plans - The company plans to produce 1.7 million tons of aluminum, 7.2 million tons of coal, and 660,000 tons of carbon products in 2025 [2][41]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's low valuation and high earnings elasticity could catalyze stock price increases, with a strong emphasis on the cost advantages in aluminum production [4][41]. - The anticipated growth in net profit and the favorable PE ratios indicate a promising investment opportunity [41][42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][36] Core Views - The company's net profit is expected to decline by 27% in 2024, with revenue projected at 38.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [6][28] - The decline in profitability is primarily due to a drop in both volume and price in the coal sector, alongside rising costs [6][7] - The aluminum smelting segment is expected to see stable profits, with a projected gross profit of 4,014 yuan per ton in 2024 [7][28] - The company is positioned to benefit from structural reforms in the supply side of both the aluminum and coal industries, which are currently in a favorable cycle [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 38.37 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.31 billion yuan, and a cash flow from operating activities of 7.72 billion yuan [6][34] - The coal production is projected to be 6.74 million tons, a decrease of 430,000 tons year-on-year, leading to increased costs [6][28] - The average coal selling price is expected to drop by 74 yuan per ton, resulting in a significant reduction in gross profit from the coal segment [6][28] Aluminum Segment - The aluminum segment is expected to maintain stable profitability, with costs at 12,000 yuan per ton and a gross profit of 4,014 yuan per ton [7][28] - The Xinjiang Shenhui subsidiary remains the most profitable, with a projected net profit of 2.06 billion yuan from the sale of 810,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [28] Future Projections - For 2025-2027, revenue is projected to grow to 40.56 billion yuan, with net profits increasing to 5.54 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.7% [3][34] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 2.46 yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.6, 7.5, and 7.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][34]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 证券分析师 翟堃 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

Core Viewpoint - Investing in high-dividend companies may be a direction to outperform the index in the short term, with a focus on state-owned enterprise dividend ETFs showing slight upward movement [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of March 26, 2025, the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) decreased by 0.05%, with component stocks showing mixed performance [1]. - The State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) increased by 0.09%, with the latest price reported at 1.09 yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF reached 51.1486 million yuan, marking a one-month high [2]. Group 2: Component Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index accounted for 15.22% of the index, with notable stocks including COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [3]. - The performance of key stocks varied, with COSCO Shipping Holdings down by 0.68% and Shanxi Coal International up by 1.07% [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - East Asia Securities suggests that focusing on high-dividend companies based on fundamentals may lead to short-term outperformance [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market rhythm and industry progress, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and robotics, which are expected to see growth [2]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in marine economy, military industry, and consumer sectors with clear policy expectations [2].