Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of stable structure and profitability, with a focus on quality over quantity in land acquisition [61]. Core Insights - The 2025 land market is characterized by a "quality over quantity" approach, with a significant decrease in land supply and transaction volumes, while average transaction prices have increased [25][61]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and leading real estate companies are becoming more active in land acquisition, with a notable increase in land acquisition intensity among major firms [48][61]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in national sample cities has risen, indicating strong competition for prime land in first and second-tier cities [31][61]. Summary by Sections Land Market Overview - In 2025, the total land supply in national sample cities decreased by 16.9% year-on-year to 1,172.42 million square meters, with first, second, and third-fourth tier cities experiencing declines of 27.6%, 6.4%, and 19.2% respectively [25][28]. - Land transaction volumes also fell by 12.5% to 986.63 million square meters, with transaction values dropping by 11.4% to RMB 28,488 billion, while the average transaction floor price increased by 3.4% to RMB 2,887 per square meter [25][28]. Premium Rates and City Focus - The average premium rate for land transactions in 2025 was 5.3%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with first-tier cities averaging 10.7% and second-tier cities at 6.2% [31][61]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw premium rates exceeding 10%, indicating a strong demand for quality land [31][61]. Investment Strategies of Key Players - In 2025, 12 real estate companies exceeded RMB 10 billion in land acquisition, with 11 being central SOEs, highlighting the dominance of state-owned enterprises in the market [48][61]. - The land acquisition intensity for the top 100 real estate companies was 0.29, reflecting a 70.6% increase year-on-year, with Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group leading at 81.9% [48][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the real estate sector, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land, among others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [61][65].

Investment Rating - Investment advice emphasizes high-quality development in the real estate sector, with low-valuation real estate showing potential for gains. The sector is expected to experience valuation recovery in 2026 due to improved regulations and policies [20]. Core Insights - The Fifteenth Five-Year Plan focuses on high-quality development in real estate, with market enthusiasm on the rise. The current total market cap of the AH real estate sector is misaligned with its economic position, indicating potential investment opportunities [20]. - The report highlights a decrease in planned land reserve acquisitions, with a total planned reserve exceeding RMB 700 billion. By 4Q25, 5,364 idle land plots are planned for acquisition, covering 290 million square meters, totaling RMB 706 billion [20][3]. - Special bond issuance remains high, with over RMB 300 billion in land reserve special bonds issued by 4Q25, covering 43% of planned reserves, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous quarter [20][3]. Summary by Sections Land Reserve Planning - In 4Q25, the new planned land reserve amount is RMB 79.8 billion, down 44.4% quarter-on-quarter. The top three regions by reserve scale are Zhejiang (RMB 90.7 billion), Guangdong (RMB 88.4 billion), and Chongqing (RMB 67 billion) [20][3]. - The average discount rate for land acquisition is 0.8, with 77.6% of the new plots acquired being from the 2020-2024 period [20][3]. Special Bonds - By 4Q25, the issuance of special bonds for land reserve has reached over RMB 3,000 billion, with a coverage rate of 43% for planned reserves. The new issuance in 4Q25 is RMB 109.5 billion, maintaining a high pace [20][3]. - Local governments plan to issue RMB 4.58 trillion in new special bonds in 2025, with 6.6% allocated for acquiring idle land [20][3]. Key Companies to Watch - Key targets for investment include development companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Gemdale, as well as property management firms like China Resources Mixc and Poly Property Services [20][3].

Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on January 9 to implement a package policy for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, emphasizing the need to guide social capital in promoting consumption and expanding investment, particularly in supporting resident consumption upgrades and private investment development [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy during its 2026 work meeting, aiming to support stable growth in the real economy and financial market, while also addressing financial risks in key areas [1] - Recent adjustments to the real estate financing coordination mechanism allow projects on the "white list" to extend loans for up to five years, compared to the previous maximum of two and a half years [1] Market News - In 2025, the total land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan, and the planned building area for residential land transactions fell by 13.5% to 620 million square meters [4] - The top 20 cities accounted for 52% of the national residential land transfer fees, indicating a concentration of land acquisition by major enterprises in core cities [4] Real Estate Company News - Vanke announced that Yu Liang has retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president, with no impact on the board's operation [8] - Country Garden's four bonds resumed trading on January 9 after early cash repayment was completed on December 26, 2025 [12] - Sunac China reported three new overdue debts totaling approximately 640 million yuan, with the main reasons being unpaid principal [13] - R&F Properties disclosed that as of November 30, 2025, the total overdue debt reached 38.7 billion yuan, primarily due to various financial obligations not being repaid [14] - Several real estate companies reported their 2025 sales performance, with Poly Developments achieving a signed sales amount of 253.03 billion yuan and China Overseas Development reaching 251.23 billion yuan [15]

Key Points - Major asset restructuring plans are underway for several companies, including JiaoYun Co. and Dongzhu Ecology, with significant risks of termination noted for Dongzhu Ecology's restructuring efforts [11][12] - ST KeliDa is set to resume trading on January 12, 2026, following a proposed change in its actual controller [5] - NineLink Technology has terminated its major asset restructuring plans due to disagreements on core transaction terms [6] - Companies like Huazhou Laojiao and others have announced substantial profit distributions and performance forecasts, indicating positive growth trends [8][9][10] Focus Area 1: Asset Restructuring - JiaoYun Co. is planning a major asset swap involving its automotive sales and service segments with assets from its controlling shareholder [11] - Dongzhu Ecology is attempting to acquire control of Kai Rui Xing Tong Information Technology but faces significant termination risks due to valuation disagreements [12] - NineLink Technology has decided to halt its plans to acquire a 51% stake in Chengdu Neng Tong Technology after failing to reach consensus on key transaction details [6] Focus Area 2: Trading Resumption and Risk Warnings - ST KeliDa will resume trading on January 12, 2026, after a proposed change in its actual controller [5] - China First Heavy Industries and Oriental Pearl have issued risk warning announcements regarding their stock trading, highlighting the volatility and lack of revenue from certain projects [3][4] Focus Area 3: Performance Forecasts - Huazhou Laojiao expects a net profit of between 235 million to 271 million yuan for 2025, a significant recovery from a loss in the previous year [8] - China Shipbuilding Defense anticipates a net profit increase of 149.61% to 196.88% for 2025, driven by improved production efficiency and revenue from joint ventures [9] - Daotong Technology projects a net profit of 900 million to 930 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 40.42% to 45.10% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with a notable drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions across major cities [4][37] - Recent government policies, such as talent attraction initiatives in Nanjing and housing loan optimizations in Shenyang, aim to stimulate demand in the real estate market [6][13] - The overall market performance shows a rebound, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 5.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 5.07%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.79%, indicating a relative outperformance of 2.29% [3][11] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 2-8, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 19,373 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 58.6% [4][21] - The total area sold was 178.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 64.5% [4][21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,210 units, down 21% year-on-year and 6.9% month-on-month [37][40] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - During the week, land supply reached 2,258.2 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [5] - However, land transactions fell sharply, with a total area of 2,488.6 million square meters sold, down 62.2% year-on-year [5] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 3.53 billion yuan in credit bonds, marking a year-on-year decrease of 57.67% but a month-on-month increase of 411.59% [5] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Yuexiu Property, which are expected to navigate market fluctuations effectively [6] - Property management companies like China Resources Mixc Life and Poly Property are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market recovery [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][24]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with positive policy factors accumulating. Recent central government directives emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a potential shift in policy support [2][24]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for some quality companies are at historical lows, making them attractive investment opportunities [2][24]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. First and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a 12.6% increase week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions are down 23.3% compared to the same period last year [10][12]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months is 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [18][24]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policy updates include an extension of loan financing for white-listed projects from 2 years to 5 years, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][24]. - Local governments are implementing various supportive measures, such as tax relief for property taxes in Shanghai and talent attraction policies in Nanjing, which include living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [24][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2]. Core Views - The fundamentals of the real estate industry are still bottoming out, but positive policy factors are accumulating. Recent policies include extending loan financing for whitelist projects from 2 years to 5 years and various local government initiatives to support housing and talent retention [2][26]. - The report highlights that the real estate market has undergone a deep adjustment, and with recent central government calls to stabilize the market, there is an expectation for positive policy changes ahead. The current valuation levels for quality companies are attractive [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - For the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. Among these, first and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.6%. However, year-on-year, January's cumulative transactions were down 23.3% compared to last year [10]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 key cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months was 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [19]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policies include the Shanghai announcement for tax relief on land use for eligible taxpayers, and Nanjing's new talent policies offering living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [26][29]. - The establishment of the first local government-guided REITs fund in Xiamen, with a target size of 5.5 billion over 10 years, aims to revitalize existing assets [26][30]. Company Dynamics - December sales data for major real estate companies showed significant declines, with China Overseas Development reporting 39.83 billion yuan (-1%), and CIFI Holdings down 58.3% to 1 billion yuan [35]. - Notable changes in shareholding include the reduction of shares by the controlling shareholder of Binhai Group, decreasing their stake to 60% [35].

证券日报网讯1月9日，招商蛇口（001979）发布2025年12月份销售及近期购得土地使用权情况简报称， 2025年12月份，公司实现签约销售面积97.72万平方米，实现签约销售金额258.44亿元。2025年1月-12月 份，公司累计实现签约销售面积716.12万平方米，累计实现签约销售金额1，960.09亿元。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 李晗）2026年1月9日，招商蛇口披露2025年12月销售简报。简报显示，2025年12月 招商蛇口实现签约销售面积97.72万平方米，实现签约销售金额258.44亿元。 ...

Core Insights - Chengdu's new housing market demonstrated strong resilience in 2025, with total transactions reaching 91,858 units and an average unit size of approximately 131.27 square meters, likely leading the nation in new home sales for the third consecutive year [1] - The market's performance is attributed to continuous product iteration and improvements in residential design, driven by macro policy optimization and a focus on product value [1] - Buyers are increasingly seeking refined living experiences, with features like independent elevator access and multifunctional community spaces becoming standard in high-quality projects [1] Market Dynamics - In 2025, five companies in Chengdu's real estate sector achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in the number of top-tier firms and an increase in industry concentration [3] - China Resources Land maintained its leading position with a sales amount of 12.268 billion yuan, supported by projects like Huachengfu and Tiancheng Shangyuan, which emphasize differentiated living environments [3][5] - Chengdu Rail City topped the sales area chart with approximately 510,000 square meters, leveraging a comprehensive TOD development model [5] High-End Market Trends - The introduction of premium product lines by major developers, such as Jianfa's "Haiyao" and Beike's "Beicheng S1," reflects the market's vitality and residential value [7] - Jianfa's Haiyao achieved a record average price of 84,952.16 yuan per square meter, setting a benchmark for high-end living in Chengdu [7][8] - The high-end market saw a historic peak in the supply and sales of properties priced over 10 million yuan, with over 140 transactions for homes priced above 20 million yuan [10] Unique Project Highlights - Projects like Chengdu Jiabai Road and LACADIERE Tianlan have distinguished themselves through unique product offerings and resource advantages, attracting significant market interest [11][13] - Jiabai Road's new club at 200 meters high and LACADIERE Tianlan's panoramic views and international design have set them apart in the competitive landscape [11][13] - The ecological development of Mulu Lake Ecological City, with its community-driven cultural events, has contributed to its nearly 10 billion yuan sales performance in 2025 [16] Structural Market Shift - Chengdu's real estate market is transitioning from a scale-driven approach to a product-driven one, with buyers increasingly valuing community ecology and long-term value [16] - The competition is shifting towards product strength and community operation capabilities, which are essential for companies to navigate market cycles effectively [16]