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格林大华期货早盘提示:全球经济-20260105
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 01:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook is turning weaker [1] Core View of the Report - The global economy is starting to weaken as the U.S. makes continuous policy mistakes and returns to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a far - reaching impact on major asset classes [2] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Important News - Goldman Sachs' 2026 top ten investment themes focus on AI infrastructure investment shifting to in - data - center and power suppliers, pharmaceutical R & D moving from weight - loss drugs to the cardiovascular field, and China's economic growth exceeding market expectations driven by technological progress and exports. Political uncertainties such as Fed policy and tariff rulings will dominate the market in the first half of the year [1] - U.S. officials confirmed that Trump ordered air strikes on locations in Venezuela including military facilities, and Venezuelan President Maduro declared a state of emergency [1] - In 2025, precious metal prices rose significantly: gold (+65%), silver (+148%), platinum (+127%), and palladium (+78%), with gold and silver achieving their best annual performance since 1979 [1] - SpaceX is valued at $800 billion, OpenAI is negotiating a new round of financing at a target valuation of $750 billion, and Anthropic is in talks for a new round of financing with a target valuation over $300 billion. A successful IPO of any of the three giants in 2026 would surpass the total fundraising of about 200 U.S. IPOs in 2025 [1] - Starting from January 8, the annual re - weighting of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window. There will be a 13% sell - off of the total open interest in the Comex silver market in the next two weeks [1] - Tesla's Q4 deliveries decreased 16% year - on - year to 418,227 units, lower than the estimate of 440,907 units. In contrast, BYD's battery - electric vehicle sales increased in Q4 and the full - year, with nearly 2.26 million units delivered in the full - year compared to Tesla's 1.64 million units [1] - U.S. top AI labs like OpenAI, xAI, and Google are building their own gas - fired power plants to solve the power problem for AI computing power [1] - U.S. President Trump threatened to interfere in the Iranian unrest and also threatened to support Israel to strike Iran if it develops its ballistic missile program again [1] 2. Global Economic Logic - Nomura expects Fed uncertainties to peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from U.S. assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, bought $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet. Trump may fire Fed Chair Powell and sue him for "gross negligence" [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The U.S. released a new National Security Strategy, abandoning global hegemony, adjusting economic relations with China, and revitalizing its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation is intensifying, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.0% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head said the company must double AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold growth in the next 4 to 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI race due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists think the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [2]
电力设备行业跟踪周报:锂电价格快速联动,太空光伏远期空间大-20260105
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-05 01:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery prices are rapidly linked, and there is significant long-term potential in space photovoltaic technology [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see substantial growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][7] - The electric vehicle market is anticipated to grow by 15% in 2026, supported by continued subsidies and a strong export contribution [26] Industry Trends - The electric power equipment sector experienced a decline of 2.18%, underperforming the market, with specific segments like wind power and new energy vehicles showing slight increases [3] - The report highlights the release of independent energy storage capacity compensation in Hubei Province at 165 RMB/kW·year, indicating government support for energy storage development [3] - The report notes that the global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with the U.S. projected to see a 60% increase in energy storage installations in 2025 [7] Market Prices and Changes - Lithium carbonate prices are reported at 112,500 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.9% [3] - The average price of polysilicon is reported at 53.00 RMB/kg, with no change, while N-type silicon wafers have seen a price increase of 20% [3] - The report indicates that the average bidding price for onshore wind power is 1,800 RMB/kW, reflecting a competitive market environment [3] Company Performance - Companies like Ningde Times and BYD are highlighted for their strong performance, with Ningde Times expected to see a net profit of 11-16 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 127%-230% [3] - Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are noted for their strategic partnerships and production capacity expansions, positioning them well in the lithium supply chain [3] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for companies involved in energy storage and lithium battery production, recommending investments in leading firms such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy [3][6]
开盘:三大指数集体高开,创业板指涨0.84%,商业航天概念股持续发酵,油气股涨幅靠前,脑机接口概念股活跃
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-05 01:34
A股三大指数集体高开,沪指涨0.46%,报3986.97点,深成指涨0.8%,报13633.63点,创业板指涨 0.84%,报3229.93点,科创50指数涨1.24%,报1360.9点。沪深两市合计成交额280.83亿元,全市场超 3100只个股上涨。 热门中概股集体走强。纳斯达克中国金龙指数单日大涨4.38%,创去年5月12日以来的最大单日涨幅。 其中,刚宣布分拆芯片业务IPO的百度收涨15.03%、阿里巴巴涨6.25%、腾讯ADR涨5.23%、网易涨 7.22%、台积电涨5.17%、富途控股涨8.68%、哔哩哔哩涨7.24%、万国数据涨9.86%、小马智行涨 10.83%。 港股三大指数上周五迎来2026年"开门红"。截至收盘,恒生指数涨2.76%,报26338.47点;科技指数涨 4%,报5736.44点;国企指数涨2.86%,报9168.99点。 从行业表现看,半导体、互联网科技、家电、汽车及商业航天相关个股成为当日领涨主力。 【假期重要资讯】 1、韩国总统李在明访华,四大龙头集团掌门随行 4日下午,韩国总统李在明乘机抵达北京首都国际机场,开启为期4天的访华行程。此次出访最核心的看 点,无疑是那支规 ...
金融界财经早餐:假期中国资产全线大涨,十大券商看好牛市延续,DeepSeek又成焦点,宇树回应“绿色通道”上市(1月5日)
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-05 01:33
Group 1: Capital Market Insights - Global markets showed overall recovery during the New Year holiday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising 2.7%, marking the strongest start in over a decade [2] - The Chinese yuan continues to appreciate, breaking the 7 mark, benefiting Chinese assets due to a weaker dollar and stable economic fundamentals [2] - Major brokerages remain optimistic about the A-share market, predicting a sustained bull market into 2026 [2] - A total of 71 new funds are scheduled for issuance in January, with 44 launching in the first trading week [2] Group 2: Industry Highlights - AI sector sees renewed attention with DeepSeek introducing a new AI model architecture that significantly reduces computing power requirements while enhancing efficiency [4] - The low-altitude economy is set to grow, with Shanghai aiming for a core industry scale of approximately 80 billion yuan by 2028 [4] - The film industry is projected to reach a box office of 51.83 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.95% [4] - The real estate market in Beijing has seen increased viewing and transaction volumes since the implementation of new policies, with daily new home sales rising significantly [4] Group 3: Company Developments - Baidu plans to spin off Kunlun Chip for an IPO, with Goldman Sachs estimating its valuation at up to $16.5 billion, leading to a 10% surge in Baidu's Hong Kong shares [6] - BYD's electric vehicle sales have surpassed Tesla for the first time, with BYD selling 2.25 million units, a 28% increase year-on-year, while Tesla's deliveries are projected to decline by 8.6% to 1.64 million units in 2025 [6] - Ningde Times has repurchased 15.99 million shares for a total of 4.386 billion yuan [7] - DreamNet Technology has partnered with Shenzhou Liuhe to develop heavy-duty drone products [7]
开门红!多年来最强开局;大基金,大幅增持!茅台、比亚迪,重磅!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 00:55
来源:光大证券微资讯 热点聚焦 HOT 1、2026年新兴市场股票迎来多年来最强开局,升至2021年以来最高,市场看好亚洲在人工智能领域的 地位上升,推动该地区科技股大涨。MSCI发展中国家指数新年首个交易日上涨1.7%,达到自2021年2 月以来最高。1月2日,港股开年大涨,恒指收涨2.76%,恒生科技指数涨4%。"港股GPU第一股"壁仞科 技上市首日大涨超75%,公开发售阶段获逾2347倍认购。港交所披露,国家集成电路基金在中芯国际H 股的持股比例于12月29日从4.79%升至9.25%。 2、1月2日,离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97,最高升至6.9678,创2023年5月以来新高。2025年美元创下八 年来最大年度跌幅,美元即期指数全年下跌了约8%,交易员押注其将进一步走低。投资者认为,若下 一任美联储主席如预期般选择大力降息,美元将进一步贬值。 3、据央视新闻,白宫表示,美国对委内瑞拉的石油禁运仍完全有效。将让美国大型石油公司进入委内 瑞拉。此前,消息人士称,八个欧佩克+国家原则上同意在26Q1暂停石油产量增长。1月3日,WTI原油 期货跌0.17%,报57.32美元/桶,一周累涨1.04%;布油期货跌 ...
上市公司掌门人筹谋“十五五” 铿锵向未来
Group 1 - BYD aims to maintain significant R&D and financial investment to consolidate electrification and promote intelligence in the new "15th Five-Year Plan" period [3] - The company plans to integrate global resources for collaborative innovation and accelerate its global industrial layout to build a world-class Chinese brand [3] - BYD's annual sales have achieved a tenfold growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, establishing it as the largest electric vehicle manufacturer globally [3] Group 2 - Oriental Fortune emphasizes the importance of empowering the real economy and serving people's needs in the financial sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The company aims to leverage technology to connect wealth management and financing needs effectively [5] Group 3 - Moore Threads focuses on accelerating the application of domestic GPUs across various industries to support digital transformation [7] - The company has established a complete technology stack based on a unified architecture, achieving a systematic closed loop from hardware to application [7] Group 4 - Muyuan Foods is committed to producing safe and healthy pork products, aiming for high-quality development in the pig farming industry [9] - The company plans to leverage technology to address industry challenges and contribute to the high-quality development of China's pig farming sector [9] Group 5 - Zhongwei Company aims to achieve 50% to 60% market coverage in high-end semiconductor equipment through organic growth and external expansion [12] - The company emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and industry chain collaboration to enhance global competitiveness [12] Group 6 - Huayou Cobalt plans to align its strategy with national planning during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on creating customer value and leading industry development [16] - The company aims to become a leading technology enterprise in energy materials globally [16] Group 7 - Aier Eye Hospital integrates clinical services, research innovation, and public health education into a comprehensive eye health ecosystem [18] - The company is committed to advancing AI diagnostics and expanding its eye health service network [18] Group 8 - Tianci Materials focuses on sustainable development principles, enhancing innovation capabilities in lithium-ion battery materials and specialty chemicals [20] - The company aims to embrace a new growth cycle in the lithium and energy storage industry over the next five years [20] Group 9 - JinkoSolar emphasizes technological innovation as the core driver of its development, aiming to enhance the efficiency of photovoltaic applications [22] - The company is focused on integrating advanced technologies with traditional manufacturing to foster new productive forces [22] Group 10 - Jishi Media aims to integrate cultural and technological advancements, focusing on digital transformation and innovation in the media sector [24] - The company plans to enhance its competitiveness by focusing on AI, data elements, and low-altitude economy [24] Group 11 - China National Machinery Industry Corporation aims to transform into a technology-driven engineering company while embedding its development into the national modernization blueprint [26] - The company plans to enhance its efficiency and investment value through capital market engagement and focus on green engineering and digital infrastructure [26]
比亚迪年度销量首超特斯拉,后者2025年交付量下滑近9%
Xin Lang Ke Ji· 2026-01-05 00:32
【#比亚迪年度销量首超特斯拉##特斯拉2025年交付量下滑近9%#】当地时间1月2日,特斯拉公布其 2025年第四季度及全年汽车交付数据。数据显示,特斯拉2025年交付量为163.6万辆。同期,比亚迪的 纯电动汽车销量已达到225.67万辆。比亚迪在年度销量上首次超越特斯拉,意味着特斯拉失去长期占据 的"全球纯电动车销量冠军"宝座。 据《每日经济新闻》记者观察,特斯拉2025年四季度和全年的销量均出现大幅下滑。2025年第四季度, 特斯拉交付量较2024年同期减少约16%,产量较2024年同期下降5.5%。就2025年全年来看,特斯拉的交 付量由2024年的178.9万辆下降8.6%至163.6万辆。 虽然特斯拉此次没有发布区域销量,但数据显示,除了美国,特斯拉在欧洲的销量同样有所放缓。据欧 洲汽车制造商协会(ACEA)发布的数据,2025年前11个月,特斯拉在欧洲的注册量下降了39%,而其 竞争对手比亚迪在欧洲的注册量则增长了240%。 自2014年进入中国市场以来,特斯拉经历了从快速崛起到面临激烈竞争的完整周期。数据显示,最初三 年,特斯拉累计交付2.12万辆汽车;2017年,其单年销量即达到此前总和,此 ...
上市公司掌门人筹谋“十五五” 铿锵向未来
证券时报· 2026-01-05 00:25
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic plans and aspirations of various companies as they embark on the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting their commitment to innovation, technology, and global competitiveness. Group 1: BYD - BYD aims to maintain significant R&D and financial investment to solidify its position in electrification and promote smart technology, leveraging global resources for innovation [4] - The company has achieved a tenfold increase in annual sales during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and seeks to capitalize on the global expansion of Chinese brands [4] Group 2: Oriental Fortune - Oriental Fortune expresses confidence in the resilience of the Chinese economy and emphasizes the importance of financial technology in connecting wealth management with real economy financing [6] - The company aims to serve diverse stakeholders and enhance its role in the financial transformation landscape [6] Group 3: Moore Threads - Moore Threads focuses on accelerating the application of domestic GPUs across various industries, contributing to the digital transformation [8] - The company has established a comprehensive technology stack and aims to maintain high R&D investment to strengthen its competitive edge [8] Group 4: Muyuan Foods - Muyuan Foods is committed to producing safe and healthy pork products, responding to consumer demand while advancing the pig farming industry towards high-quality development [10] - The company plans to leverage technology to address industry challenges and enhance overall quality [10] Group 5: Zhongwei Company - Zhongwei Company aims to achieve 50% to 60% market coverage in high-end semiconductor equipment through organic growth and expansion over the next five to ten years [12] - The company emphasizes collaboration within the industry to enhance global competitiveness [12] Group 6: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft is focused on achieving significant milestones in the "15th Five-Year Plan" by enhancing core functions and competitiveness [14] - The company aims to contribute to the construction of a strong aviation nation through strategic initiatives [14] Group 7: Huayou Cobalt - Huayou Cobalt plans to align its strategy with national planning during the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on creating customer value and leading industry development [16] - The company aims to become a leading technology enterprise in energy materials [16] Group 8: Aier Eye Hospital - Aier Eye Hospital integrates its development with national strategies, focusing on innovation in eye health services and technology [18] - The company aims to enhance its service network and collaborate with partners to improve public health outcomes [18] Group 9: Tinci Materials - Tinci Materials is committed to sustainable development through innovation in lithium-ion battery materials and specialty chemicals [21] - The company anticipates a new growth cycle in the lithium and energy storage industries over the next five years [21] Group 10: JinkoSolar - JinkoSolar emphasizes technology innovation as a core driver for its development, focusing on high-efficiency solar cell technologies [23] - The company aims to integrate advanced technologies with traditional manufacturing to foster new productive capabilities [23] Group 11: Jishi Media - Jishi Media aims to integrate cultural and technological advancements, focusing on becoming a leading cultural technology enterprise [25] - The company plans to leverage AI and digital transformation to enhance its service offerings [25] Group 12: China National Machinery Industry Corporation - China National Machinery Industry Corporation is focused on deepening its role in China's modernization efforts while enhancing its international competitiveness [27] - The company aims to foster new productive capabilities in emerging sectors such as green engineering and digital infrastructure [27]
特斯拉2025全年交付163.6万辆落后比亚迪 11个月销量降7.37%中国仍是最大市场
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2026-01-05 00:24
怀揣着万亿元薪酬方案,特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)首席执行官埃隆·马斯克要为公司销量加把劲了。 1月2日,特斯拉公布的数据显示,该公司2025年全球交付汽车163.6万辆,同比下降约8.6%。 值得一提的是,比亚迪(002594)2025年全球纯电动汽车销量达226万辆,同比增长28%。这意味着, 特斯拉纯电动汽车年销量首次被中国汽车制造商比亚迪超越。 2025年前11个月,特斯拉在中国市场的挂牌销量达53.19万辆,较上年同期57.42万辆下降7.37%,低于 其2025年全球销量降幅。中国依然是其全球最大单一市场。 近期,特斯拉为马斯克制定了薪酬激励方案,该方案最高价值可达1万亿美元,但完成目标难度极高。 其中,特斯拉未来10年累计交付2000万辆,平均每年交付量要达到200万辆。 汽车观察员肖红向长江商报记者表示,随着越来越多的车企进入电动汽车市场,特斯拉面临来自全球各 地的竞争压力。 全球交付量降8.6% 1月2日,特斯拉公布的数据显示,该公司2025年全球交付汽车163.6万辆,同比下降约8.6%。 就在前一天,1月1日,比亚迪表示,2025年其全球纯电动汽车销量达226万辆,同比增长28%。其 ...
比亚迪董事长兼总裁王传福:打造世界级中国品牌
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-05 00:13
新年伊始,我谨代表比亚迪公司,向大家致以诚挚的新年祝福!起航"十五五",比亚迪满怀希望、充满 期待,将与所有上市公司一起,永葆创新创业的激情和艰苦奋斗的精神,共同谱写新的华章! "十四 五"时期,我国新能源汽车站上世界舞台的中央。比亚迪成长为全球最大的新能源汽车企业,年销量实 现了十倍的跨越发展。 进入"十五五",我国新能源汽车将进入技术迭代、智电融合和全球化发展的新 阶段。站在新的起点,比亚迪在技术上,将继续保持大量研发和资金投入,巩固电动化、推进智能化, 用技术带来新的增长曲线;在产业协作上,将站在全球产业链的肩膀上,整合全球资源合作创新;在全 球化上,抢抓中国品牌出海机遇乘势而上,加快推进全球化产业布局,打造世界级中国品牌。 新岁已 至,未来可期。面向"十五五",比亚迪将牢记上市公司主体责任,持续发展壮大新质生产力,为汽车强 国梦贡献更大力量!新的一年,祝朋友们心想事成、幸福相伴! ...