斑马消费 沈庹 尽管已临近农历新年，猪肉消费进入一年中最集中的时间节点，但猪价并未如想象的那样大幅上涨。 2026年1月以来，尽管全国生猪平均价格连续3周上涨，但涨幅有限。1月22日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格18.50元/千克，与前一日持 平。 行业正试图通过放缓生猪出栏量，来扭转供需关系挺价，但从趋势来看，即便猪价在下月的春节期间有所上涨，消费者的"红烧肉自由"也将毫 无压力。 这几乎是2025年生猪市场行情的延续。在行业产能大幅释放、消费需求疲软的双重压力下，传统猪周期的节奏，已经被彻底打乱。 日前，多家上市猪企披露年度产销数据显示，去年生猪出栏量增加、收入减少，导致业绩普遍下降。 有行业人士预计，2026年下半年市场行情或有好转，但未必好过2025年。 猪养多了 2025年，对于普通消费者来说，猪肉价格相当友好，平时过早吃不起的腰花猪肝浇头面，也能从容支付，一点压力都没有。 去年12月最后一周，生猪定点屠宰企业生猪平均收购价为13.09元/千克，同比下降24.5%；白条肉平均出厂价为17.10元/千克，同比下降 24.4%。 处于上游供应端的猪企们，日子更为难过。日前，多家企业披露年度产销数据显示 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The public fund allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has decreased by 0.15 percentage points, currently at a low allocation level of approximately 1.01%, which is 0.38 percentage points below the standard allocation ratio of 1.39% [15][21] - The report highlights a continued decline in holdings across various sub-sectors, with the feed sector experiencing the most significant drop of 0.14 percentage points [21] - Major public fund holdings are concentrated in leading companies within the livestock breeding industry and related agricultural sectors, with notable stocks including Muyuan Foods (0.28%), Wens Foodstuffs (0.07%), and others [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Allocation - The public fund allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is approximately 1.01%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low allocation level compared to the standard ratio of 1.39% [15] 2. Sub-sector Holdings - The holdings in the feed and breeding sectors have both decreased, with the feed sector at 0.47% (down 0.14 percentage points) and the breeding sector at 0.43% (down 0.01 percentage points) [21] 3. Major Holdings - The report indicates that public fund holdings are primarily in leading companies in the livestock breeding chain and related agricultural sectors, with significant holdings in Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [22] 4. Investment Recommendations - In the pig farming sector, the report suggests that companies with cost advantages will have a significant competitive edge, recommending major players like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential in smaller firms like Tian Kang Biological and Shennong Group [37] - For the poultry sector, the report notes potential supply declines due to avian influenza, recommending attention to companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Biological [37] - In the feed sector, the report remains optimistic about leading companies expanding their market share domestically and internationally, emphasizing the importance of cost efficiency [37] - The report also suggests monitoring developments in biotechnology and industry consolidation in the planting sector, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [37] - In the pet industry, the report highlights the trend towards market consolidation and recommends companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [37]

Core Insights - In December 2025, 16 major pig farming companies in China achieved a total sales volume of 17.72 million pigs, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.51% and a month-on-month increase of 7.15% [1][5][6] - The total revenue for these companies in December was 22.104 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.85% but a month-on-month increase of 4.87% [1][5][11] Sales Volume Analysis - The leading company, Muyuan Foods, sold 6.98 million pigs in December, while Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope reported sales of over 1.8 million pigs each [1][6] - Jin Xin Nong and Zhengbang Technology experienced significant sales growth, with increases exceeding 70% year-on-year, while four companies, including Muyuan Foods and Tangrenshen, saw declines of over 10% [1][6][10] Revenue Analysis - The revenue figures for December showed that Jin Xin Nong and Zhengbang Technology had revenue growth rates exceeding 20%, while four companies, including Zhenghong Technology and Tiankang Biological, reported revenue declines of over 30% [1][11] - Muyuan Foods generated 9.667 billion yuan in revenue for December, down 36.06% year-on-year, while Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope also reported declines of 11.38% and 10.75%, respectively [10][12] Price Trends - The average transaction price for pigs in the national market fluctuated around 15 yuan per kilogram in early 2025, dropping to a low of 11.05 yuan per kilogram in the latter half of the year [2]

Market Overview - A-shares showed significant selling pressure towards the end of the trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.08% at 4116.94 points, the Shenzhen Component rising 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.54%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.37% to 26585.06 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.11% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.31%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 2504.514 million HKD[1] International Developments - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.21%, the S&P 500 rising 1.16% to 6875.62 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.18%[1] - President Trump announced a framework agreement regarding Greenland, retracting the threat of tariffs on eight European countries, which led to a rebound in U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets[1][13] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra expressed anticipation for a quick meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss economic agreements[1][13] Trade Relations - The European Parliament indefinitely postponed the vote on the U.S.-EU trade agreement until the U.S. returns to a cooperative stance, following Trump's threats regarding tariffs[13] - The European Commission is considering countermeasures against U.S. goods worth 930 billion euros (approximately 1.09 trillion USD) if necessary[13] Corporate Developments - China Galaxy received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue up to 5 billion RMB in technology innovation bonds[15] - Huatai Securities raised 7.5 billion RMB through the issuance of subordinated bonds, with a minimum coupon rate of 1.99%[15] - The PCB equipment manufacturer Dazhu CNC reported a 144% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first ten months of the previous year[11]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.08% at 4116.94 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.7% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.54%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index gained 0.37% to close at 26585.06 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.11% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.31%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 2504.514 million HKD[1] International Developments - U.S. President Trump announced a framework agreement regarding Greenland, retracting the threat of tariffs on eight European countries, which had previously been set to take effect on February 1[1][13] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed anticipation for a quick meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, indicating ongoing discussions about the U.S.-China economic agreement[1][13] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.21%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.16% to 6875.62 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18%[1] - In China, the GDP growth rate for Q4 was reported at 4.5%, slightly below the expected 4.8%[18] - China's industrial output for December increased by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.8%[18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Muyuan Foods has taken significant steps towards its internationalization strategy by planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2][3] - The company's board of directors approved the proposal for the global offering of H-shares and authorized relevant personnel to handle the listing process [2] - Muyuan Foods submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in April 2025 and successfully passed the hearing on January 16, 2025 [3] Group 2 - The IPO proceeds are intended to explore overseas opportunities and expand the company's business footprint [3] - The company plans to invest in research and development over the next three years to drive technological innovation across its entire industry chain, focusing on breeding, smart farming, nutritional management, and biosecurity [3] - The funds will also be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance of the consumer sector in China, particularly the growth of brand value for Kweichow Moutai, which increased by 2.2% to reach $59.63 billion, ranking first in the global liquor industry [1] - The China Securities Index shows that the major consumer index has risen by 0.20%, with significant gains from stocks such as Hainan Rubber (+2.15%), Yanjing Beer (+1.64%), and Dongpeng Beverage (+1.53%) [1] - The market is currently favoring sectors like snacks and dairy, which are experiencing clear growth and higher elasticity, driven by policy support and improving monthly data, while the liquor sector is in a "bottoming out" phase [1] Group 2 - The major consumer index includes leading A-share consumer stocks across various categories, with liquor being the largest sector, accounting for over 38% of the index [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumer index, which include Yili, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye, collectively account for 68.63% of the index [1] - Investors can also access the consumer recovery trend through the Consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's statements on Greenland and other issues have led to changes in market risk preferences, affecting the trends of various assets such as the US dollar, gold, and US stocks [2][4][14]. - The A - share market has shown a trend of shock and upward movement, and the market sentiment has been repaired after the previous callback. The regulatory authorities' measures to cool the market are still ongoing [3][24][26]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical risks, and policy changes, showing different trends and investment opportunities [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Trump reached a framework agreement on Greenland and will not impose tariffs on it. The US Supreme Court is cautious about Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump hinted at the selection of the next Fed Chairman [12][13][14]. - Comment: Market risk preferences have rebounded, and the US dollar has rebounded. However, market volatility risks still exist [14]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Trump stated that the US has no intention of using force to obtain Greenland and will not implement the original European tariff measures [16]. - Comment: Gold prices first rose and then fell. The short - term callback risk of precious metals has increased, but the long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged [17][18]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the safe - haven sentiment has eased, precious metals face callback risks, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Trump hinted at the selection of the next Fed Chairman, reached a "framework agreement" on Greenland with NATO, and the US Supreme Court is cautious about removing Fed Governor Cook [20][21][22]. - Comment: Geopolitical risks have eased, market risk preferences have improved, and the US stock market has repaired its previous decline and maintained high - level oscillations [22]. - Investment advice: The volatility of the US stock market will increase during the earnings season, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: A - share indexes rose in shock, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to implement the spot - housing sales system [24][25]. - Comment: Market sentiment has been repaired, trading volume has shrunk but the index has risen. The regulatory authorities' measures to cool the market are still ongoing. The strategy of buying on dips is better than chasing highs [26]. - Investment advice: Hold the long - position strategy for stock index futures [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The central bank conducted 3635 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1227 billion yuan [28]. - Comment: The rapid rebound of treasury bond futures is due to the alleviation of institutional concerns. However, it is difficult to chase the rise, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [28][29]. - Investment advice: It is difficult to chase the rise, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: Xingtai City launched an orange - level emergency response for heavy pollution weather [31]. - Comment: Steel prices are weakly oscillating. The fundamental pressure on finished products has increased, but the price decline space is limited in the short term [32]. - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillating mindset and consider inventory hedging on rallies [32]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - News: The price of coking coal in the Hebei market remained stable. Coke producers initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have not responded [33]. - Comment: The futures price is oscillating downward, and the spot price is rising. The supply is stable, and the demand for replenishment by downstream enterprises is strong, but the market trading activity has declined [33]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the spot price is supported, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: It is reported that Muyuan Co., Ltd. may be listed in Hong Kong as early as February [34]. - Comment: The main contract of live - hog futures has declined. The market is worried about the price decline after the Spring Festival, and the technical side shows a bear - dominated pattern [34][35]. - Investment advice: Hold the short - position established earlier and pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, frozen - product inventory changes, and policy reserve purchase trends [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, and Indonesia revoked the licenses of 28 companies [36][37]. - Comment: The oil market is generally strong, with palm oil leading the rise. The decline in palm oil production has maintained the expectation of inventory reduction in January [37]. - Investment advice: The supply pressure of Malaysian palm oil is alleviating, and the Indonesian government's measures have increased market concerns. The palm oil price is still supported, but attention should be paid to the prices of crude oil and US soybean oil [38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: On January 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 46.32 US dollars/ton, and the import volume of lead ore and concentrates in December increased by 35.8% month - on - month [39]. - Comment: The lead price oscillated downward. The fundamentals are weakening, the inventory is expected to rise, and the demand feedback at high prices is negative [39][40]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: Teck Resources' zinc concentrate and zinc ingot production in 2025 were at the high end of the guidance range, and on January 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 43.57 US dollars/ton [42][43]. - Comment: The zinc price oscillated and stabilized. The fundamentals of LME zinc are weakening, and the social inventory is expected to rise before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment is stable, but the upward drive is limited [43]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, short - term wait - and - see; for arbitrage, wait - and - see [43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: The Democratic Republic of the Congo opened its cobalt and copper mines to the US, and there are disturbances in the lithium ore market [44]. - Comment: The price of lithium carbonate rose sharply. There are continuous disturbances in the ore end, and there are expectations of supply reduction due to the maintenance of lithium salt plants. The downstream demand is weak, and the key lies in price transmission [44][45]. - Investment advice: The capital game in the lithium carbonate futures market is stronger than the fundamental game. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities after the position and volatility stabilize [46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: The Democratic Republic of the Congo opened its mines to the US, Vale aims to achieve an annual copper production capacity of 1 million tons, and BHP Billiton raised the production guidance of the Escondida mine [47][48][49]. - Comment: The macro - sentiment is highly complex, and there is a risk of repeated expectations. The domestic inventory is rising, and the overseas squeeze - out risk has decreased [50]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, the market is expected to oscillate widely, and short - term wait - and - see; for arbitrage, wait - and - see [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that artificial intelligence has injected strong impetus into industrial economic growth, and on January 20, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of 92 US dollars/ton [51][52]. - Comment: The inventory of SHFE tin decreased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The processing fee of smelters rose, demand is weak, and the inventory replenishment may be restricted by high prices [52]. - Investment advice: The price trend divergence increases, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. Pay attention to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [52]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: India's Reliance Group plans to buy Russian oil in February and March, and the API crude oil inventory increased [53][54]. - Comment: Oil prices rose. The IEA raised the global demand growth forecast, but the market still faces a large surplus. The geopolitical situation has eased slightly, and the import of Russian oil by India will resume [54]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [55]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) - News: The price of LPG in the South China market continued to decline, and the US issued an emergency warning of extreme cold [56]. - Comment: The domestic and foreign prices rose slightly due to the sharp rise in HH natural gas prices. The market is worried about the short - term supply and export of US LPG [56]. - Investment advice: The overseas price is expected to be strong in the near term, and the domestic price may follow passively [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - News: The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased [57]. - Comment: The asphalt market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand and cost game. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the low - price resources are decreasing [57]. - Investment advice: The futures market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to cost changes [58]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - News: In December 2025, China's styrene export volume decreased by 30.86% month - on - month and increased by 382.71% year - on - year [59]. - Comment: The styrene price fluctuated greatly. The market is in an emotional game stage, and the previous upward drive has been challenged [59]. - Investment advice: If there is no new supply - side disturbance, the styrene market may adjust [60]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - News: The price of soda ash in the South China market was stable on January 21 [61]. - Comment: The soda ash futures price fell, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The soda ash factory's inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [61]. - Investment advice: In the expansion cycle, take a bearish view of soda ash in the medium term, and consider short - selling long - term contracts on rallies [62]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - News: The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased on January 21 [63]. - Comment: The glass futures price continued to fall, the inventory replenishment enthusiasm of traders weakened, and the supply - demand situation of the 05 contract is still in surplus [64]. - Investment advice: In 2026, the FG contract is expected to oscillate between 900 - 1250 yuan/ton. Short - sell on rallies. Pay attention to potential supply - side changes [64].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Muyuan Foods, one of the largest pig farming and pork production companies globally, is evaluating investor interest for its upcoming IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising up to $1.5 billion [1] - Muyuan Foods is expected to list its H-shares in Hong Kong, with Morgan Stanley, CITIC Securities, and Goldman Sachs acting as joint sponsors [1][5] - The company has a vertically integrated business model covering the entire pig industry chain, including breeding, farming, feed production, and slaughtering [1] Group 2 - According to Frost & Sullivan, since 2021, Muyuan Foods has been the world's largest pig farming enterprise by production capacity and output, maintaining the highest output for four consecutive years [1] - The global market share of Muyuan Foods has increased from 2.6% in 2021 to an expected 5.6% in 2024, surpassing the combined market share of the second to fourth largest competitors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, with a potential fundraising target of $1.5 billion, and is currently assessing investor interest [1] - Muyuan Foods has been recognized as the global leader in the pig farming industry, with a vertically integrated business model covering the entire supply chain from breeding to slaughter [1] - The company's global market share in pig production is projected to increase from 2.6% in 2021 to 5.6% by 2024, surpassing the combined market share of its second to fourth competitors [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods has reported an expected decline in net profit for 2025, forecasting a range of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.2% to 17.79% [2] - The company's EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2014 to 2024 is projected to be 60.2%, with an average EBITDA margin of 30.8%, outperforming other major listed companies in the Chinese pig farming industry [1]