Group 1 - The average wholesale price of pork on December 23 was 17.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.7% increase from December 16, indicating a rebound in pork prices [1] - Since December, the price gap between medium and standard pigs has been insufficient in some regions, leading to a lack of confidence in medium to large pigs, which may accelerate the active reduction of production capacity [2] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.2% from December 16, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and a month-on-month increase of 3.3% [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the rapid decline in pig prices since mid-October has led to losses across the entire industry chain, which typically accelerates the reduction of production capacity [2] - Investment perspective suggests that the turning point for pork prices may occur in Q2-Q3 of 2026, with the price center expected to gradually rise [2] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, providing a sufficient margin of safety for investors [2] Group 3 - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810.SH) focuses on leading companies in the pig farming industry, with major holdings including Muyuan Foods (14%), Wens Foodstuff Group (13%), and Haida Group (6%) [3] - During the capacity reduction process, leading pig farming enterprises are expected to enhance their cost advantages, resulting in strong profit certainty [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the stable performance of the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275), with a price increase of 1.0% and a trading volume of 8.1348 million yuan, bringing the fund's latest scale to 178 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the ETF include Shennong Agricultural Industry, Yasheng Group, and Luoniushan, which saw significant gains of 10.81%, 9.0%, and 6.56% respectively, while Huazi Industrial, Haida Group, and Meihua Biological experienced declines of 3.8%, 0.24%, and 0.1% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation on imported pork and pork products from the EU, which may impact the domestic pig market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, the breeding industry is expected to reach a bottom by the first half of 2026, entering a low-volatility, low-profit phase, with weaker companies gradually exiting the market [1] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, nearing a reasonable level, and capacity is expected to continue to decline, while demand is projected to grow due to increased disposable income [1] - Pacific Securities noted that the capacity reduction in the pig industry is gaining momentum, with a decrease of 450,000 breeding sows compared to the previous month, and the industry has been in a state of moderate loss for 12 consecutive weeks [2]

Group 1: Livestock Industry - The pig industry is currently in a phase of deep losses, with supply contraction expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity. The average pig price for 2025 is projected to be below the cost line, with quarterly estimates of 15.5 CNY/kg, 13.5 CNY/kg, 16.4 CNY/kg, and 17.7 CNY/kg, resulting in an annual average of approximately 13.4 CNY/kg [11][25][26] - The white chicken market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a projected supply growth of less than 5% for 2026. The decline in the sales of commodity broiler chicks indicates a more conservative price expectation within the industry [30][35] - The yellow chicken sector remains stable, with production capacity not significantly affected. The prices are expected to follow trends in other protein sources, with a focus on seasonal price increases [39] - The beef market is anticipated to see a price increase due to a clear reduction in both domestic and international supply. The wholesale price of beef has been rising, reaching 66.21 CNY/kg in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [42][70] Group 2: Agricultural Inputs and Other Sectors - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in feed production for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improved demand from the livestock sector [71][76] - The edible mushroom sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly with the reversal of the predicament faced by enoki mushrooms and the potential growth of new products like Cordyceps [3][80] - The pet industry continues to thrive, with a notable trend towards high-end domestic products, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][63] - The natural sweetener market is expected to grow as consumer awareness of sugar reduction increases, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Baolingbao positioned to benefit from this trend [4][71]

Economic News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for central enterprises to enhance budget management and cost control across all aspects of operations [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim for a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts for solar thermal power by 2030, with costs comparable to coal power [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed measures to promote the sale of existing homes and optimize affordable housing supply [2] - The General Administration of Customs conducted research on cutting-edge technology development and technology transfer [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has begun exporting self-produced goods with a value of 32,000 yuan, benefiting from over 12% cost savings [2] - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau announced a subsidy for pig income insurance, with the municipal government covering 50% of the premium [2] - The U.S. economy showed a revised annualized GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3, exceeding expectations [2] - Japan reported a leak of radioactive water from a new reactor, with ongoing investigations into external radiation exposure [2] - Brazil confirmed anti-dumping duties on automotive glass from China, with specific rates for Malaysian producers [2] - South Korea's BC Card completed a pilot project for stablecoin payments, allowing foreign users to pay local merchants [2] Company Insights - Haibo Technology plans to invest 2 billion yuan in a smart green energy storage factory, expected to be completed by December 2028 [6] - Zhenyu Technology's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement to invest at least 1 billion yuan in projects related to new energy vehicle components and humanoid robots [6] - Huaxin Cement's major shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 200 million to 400 million yuan within six months [6] - Biological Shares' major shareholder intends to increase its stake by 50 million to 100 million yuan over the next year [6] Industry Strategy Agriculture Sector - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines for the agriculture sector in 2026, with an emphasis on pig farming, feed, and pet food [7][9][10] - The pig farming industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on cost management as a key factor for long-term growth [7] - The report highlights the potential for leading companies like Muyuan Foods to benefit from improved valuations and market conditions [8] Feed and Veterinary Medicine - The veterinary medicine sector is shifting towards innovation, with companies that prioritize R&D expected to thrive [9] - The feed industry is anticipated to see stable demand supported by high livestock inventory, with leading companies likely to gain market share [9] Pet Food Market - The domestic pet food market is projected to grow, with local brands gaining market share despite tariff disruptions [10][11]

农林牧渔行业：农产品保供稳价， 积极推进农业高质量发展 坚持创新驱动，培育农业新质生产力。中央经济会议提出要实施新一轮重点产 业链高质量发展行动；深化拓展"人工智能+"，完善人工智能治理。农业作为 传统行业也要发展新质生产力，以智能化赋能产业高质量发展。结合《加快建 设农业强国规划（2024-2035）》的内容，农业科技领域我们建议关注生物育种 创新、农业机械升级和智慧农业三个方向。生物育种方面推荐标的隆平高科、 大北农，其他受益标的登海种业、荃银高科等；农业机械受益标的一拖股份、 吉峰科技、中联重科等；智慧农业受益标的托普云农、富邦股份等。 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议点评 事件：中央经济工作会议 2025 年 12 月 10 日-11 日在北京召开，会议全面总 结 2025 年经济工作，深刻分析了当前经济形势，并对 2026 年经济工作进行 重点部署。会议对农业工作的部署聚焦粮食安全底线和乡村振兴战略。 抓好粮食生产，农产品稳保供给。中央经济会议提出要严守耕地红线，毫不放 松抓好粮食生产，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理水平。粮食安全与农 产品稳保供给再次作为基本准则获得政策关注。此外，生猪是农产品 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - In November, the average price of live pigs continued to decline, but the rate of decline narrowed. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 24.25 CNY/kg, 12.55 CNY/kg, and 23.05 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of -5.99%, -0.20%, and -1.54% [3][18] - The supply side showed active slaughtering, with competitive pressure on large-scale enterprises. The overall supply was loose, while the demand side lacked strong support, leading to a decrease in the slaughtering rate [21] - The production capacity is on a downward trend, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 39.90 million heads by the end of October, a month-on-month decline of 1.10% [4][27] - The industry is expected to see accelerated capacity reduction due to policy adjustments and ongoing losses in breeding operations, with a potential price rebound anticipated in the second half of 2026 [5][31] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Performance - In November, the slaughtering rate of live pigs decreased by 0.30 percentage points to 34.12%, indicating a lack of strong demand support [21] - The average slaughter weight of pigs slightly declined, with the average post-slaughter weight around 88 kg [21] Capacity Changes - The number of breeding sows has been decreasing, with a reported 39.90 million heads by the end of October, reflecting a trend of capacity reduction [4][27] - The policy environment is focused on capacity control, which is expected to accelerate the reduction of less efficient production capacity [5][27] Market Outlook - The industry is expected to experience a turning point in prices in the second half of 2026, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods expected to benefit from cost advantages [5][32] - The industry index price-to-book ratio (PB) has shown some recovery but remains below historical median levels, indicating a safety margin for valuations [5][32] Sales Data - In November, major companies reported mixed sales performance, with Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others showing slight month-on-month changes in sales prices [34][37] - The total sales volume for listed pig companies in November decreased by 2.90% month-on-month but increased by 27.01% year-on-year [43]

Core Insights - The swine industry is entering a "cost competition new pattern," with policy adjustments leading to weak cycles and strong differentiation, resulting in overall micro-profitability in 2025, favoring leading enterprises [4][5] - The beef industry is experiencing a significant supply reduction, creating a large cycle, with domestic beef farming being highly fragmented and facing substantial overcapacity risks due to prolonged losses [4][5] - The edible fungus sector is seeing a rational return of industry capacity, with leading companies solidifying their market positions, particularly in the artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis [4][5] Swine Industry - The breeding sector is characterized by a new cost competition landscape, with the overall industry expected to be micro-profitable in 2025, while leading companies maintain strong profitability [4] - The number of breeding sows is at a reasonable high level, with policies guiding reductions, leading to weaker price fluctuations [4] - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and Lihua Agricultural (立华股份) [4] Beef Industry - The beef industry is undergoing deep supply clearance, with significant fragmentation in domestic beef farming, where over 90% of farmers have fewer than 10 cattle [4] - In 2024, beef prices hit a five-year low, with losses exceeding 1,600 yuan per head for eight consecutive months, accelerating the elimination of breeding cows [4] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy (优然牧业) and Fucheng Co., Ltd. (福成股份) [4] Edible Fungus Sector - The industry is rationally returning to capacity, with leading companies consolidating their market positions [4] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis is entering a performance release period, opening a second growth curve [4] Supply Dynamics in Swine Industry - The supply dynamics of breeding sows are changing in three phases: expansion, stabilization, and reduction, with a notable decrease in sow inventory expected in the latter half of 2025 [15][19] - The feed consumption trends indicate a correlation with sow inventory changes, with feed sales peaking in September 2025 [17] - The profitability of self-breeding operations remains positive despite recent price declines, but losses have begun to emerge as prices drop below 14 yuan per kilogram [20] Cost Trends - The overall trend in breeding costs is declining, supported by lower corn and soybean meal prices, with costs for large-scale and purchased pig farming at 12.40 yuan/kg and 13.31 yuan/kg respectively [34] - The pig-to-grain price ratio has dropped significantly, indicating worsening profitability for farmers [36] Market Opportunities - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a catalyst for market opportunities, with government efforts to guide production capacity adjustments and improve product quality [58] - The current valuation of the swine breeding sector is at historical lows, with potential for profit recovery as supply reduces and prices stabilize [60] Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for the swine industry is shaped by supply-side reforms and capacity reductions, with a strong expectation for capacity restructuring [64] - The policy environment is focused on reducing inefficient production capacity, enhancing the competitive position of leading companies [64]

Core Insights - The Bioeconomy Index (970038) closed at 2118.88 points, up by 0.65%, with a trading volume of 13.54 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.14% [1] - Among the constituent stocks, 41 companies saw an increase, with Pailin Bio leading at a 6.87% rise, while 9 companies experienced a decline, with Muyuan Foods leading the drop at 2.47% [1] - The net outflow of main funds from the Bioeconomy Index constituents totaled 66.18 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 166 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The Bioeconomy Index constituents experienced a total net outflow of 66.18 million yuan from main funds and 100 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 166 million yuan [1] - Over the past 10 days, the Bioeconomy Index has undergone adjustments, adding 9 new stocks and removing 9 stocks [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53% on December 24, with 26 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the defense and electronics sectors, which increased by 2.88% and 2.12% respectively [1] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector had the largest decline, falling by 0.85%, followed by the coal sector, which decreased by 0.70% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 10.37 billion yuan, with 17 sectors seeing net inflows. The electronics sector had the highest net inflow of 8.68 billion yuan, corresponding to its 2.12% increase [1] - The power equipment sector also saw a positive performance with a 1.03% increase and a net inflow of 3.76 billion yuan [1] - Conversely, 14 sectors experienced net outflows, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a net outflow of 1.635 billion yuan, followed by the basic chemicals sector with a net outflow of 1.212 billion yuan [1] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector saw a net outflow of 465 million yuan, with 49 out of 105 stocks rising and 47 falling [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in this sector were Pingtan Development (1.89 billion yuan), Haodangjia (537.47 million yuan), and Guotou Zhonglu (473.38 million yuan) [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Muyuan Foods (-2.04 billion yuan), Shennong Seed (-1.35 billion yuan), and Luoniushan (-950.62 million yuan) [4] Top Gainers in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The top gainers included: - Pingtan Development: +3.06% with a turnover rate of 23.09% and a net inflow of 189.11 million yuan - Haodangjia: +5.26% with a turnover rate of 15.63% and a net inflow of 53.74 million yuan - Guotou Zhonglu: +10.00% with a turnover rate of 2.33% and a net inflow of 47.34 million yuan [2] Top Losers in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The top losers included: - Muyuan Foods: -2.47% with a turnover rate of 1.11% and a net outflow of 204.40 million yuan - Shennong Seed: +1.41% with a turnover rate of 41.35% and a net outflow of 135.49 million yuan - Luoniushan: -3.06% with a turnover rate of 16.52% and a net outflow of 95.06 million yuan [4]

Group 1 - The pork concept sector declined by 0.42%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sectors, with companies like Delisi, Royole Mountain, and Haida Group experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the pork concept stocks, 9 companies saw price increases, with Jingji Zhino rising by 4.49%, Jin Xin Nong by 3.39%, and Zhenghong Technology by 0.45% [1] - The pork concept sector experienced a net outflow of 523 million yuan from main funds, with 23 stocks seeing net outflows, and 5 stocks having outflows exceeding 30 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow stock was Muyuan Foods, with a net outflow of 204 million yuan, followed by Royole Mountain, Zhengbang Technology, and Haida Group with outflows of 95.06 million yuan, 88.91 million yuan, and 38.47 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Jin Xin Nong, Jingji Zhino, and Dabeinong, with net inflows of 21.19 million yuan, 9.19 million yuan, and 6.50 million yuan respectively [2] - The trading volume and price changes of various pork concept stocks were detailed, with Muyuan Foods down by 2.47%, Royole Mountain down by 3.06%, and Haida Group down by 2.63% [3]