| 证券代码：002736 | 证券简称：国信证券 | | 公告编号：2026-001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：524095 | 债券简称：25 国证 | 01 | 编号： -【】 | 2026 年 1 月 7 日（含）前买入本期债券的投资者，享有本次派发的利息； 2026 年 1 月 7 日（含）前卖出本期债券的投资者，不享有本次派发的利息。 国信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"发行人""公司"或"本公司"）发行的 国信证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第一期）（以 下简称"本期债券"）将于 2026 年 1 月 8 日支付利息，为保证本次付息工作的 顺利进行，方便投资者及时领取利息，现将有关事宜公告如下： 国信证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第一期） 2026 年付息公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 本期债券的债券简称为 25 国证 01，债券代码为 524095，本年度计息期间、 债权登记日及付息日等如下： 1、本年度计息期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that demand for reasoning-side applications is expected to explode in 2026, with AI programming, AI agents, and AI content creation being the main growth areas, driven by productivity enhancement and the emergence of several successful applications this year [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The North American tech giants are projected to increase their capital expenditures (Capex) by over 50% in 2025, with a continued growth rate of over 30% expected in 2026 [2] - The report highlights that the data center capacity in North America is expected to face a power bottleneck due to significant Capex investments, with an estimated 80GW demand increase by 2029 [2] - The Scaling Law is anticipated to continue, with model vendors expected to open differentiated application markets, leading to a potential inflection point in reasoning-side demand in 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Model Architecture and Evolution - The evolution of model architecture is ongoing, with the need to address core pain points such as computational and memory consumption during training, as well as limited memory capacity during inference [3] - The report notes that the gap between models is narrowing, with Google catching up to OpenAI, and emphasizes the importance of algorithms and computing power in this race [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape of Major Players - OpenAI remains a key player with 800 million C-end users, while Gemini is recognized as the state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmark for large models due to its native multi-modal approach [4] - Anthropic focuses on a B2B strategy with strong capabilities in programming, achieving a valuation of $350 billion and an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $1 billion for its AI programming product [4] - Grok leverages Tesla's unique data advantages to develop next-generation native multi-modal models, despite facing limitations in reasoning scenarios [4] Group 4: Software Development and Market Dynamics - The demand for AI is expected to open up the software development ceiling, with the global SaaS market projected to reach nearly $1 trillion by 2029, up from $580 billion in 2025 [5] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape will undergo a reshuffle, with players who have data barriers and focus on niche verticals being less likely to be replaced by large models [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the bond market showed a volatile trend. The yields of government bonds and credit bonds first rose, then fell, and then fluctuated higher. The credit spreads first narrowed and then widened. The default risk continued to decline, mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds of private enterprises. The risk of implicit rating downgrade in the ChinaBond market increased, and the recovery rate of defaulted bonds remained low [9][36][37] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Valuation Curve: Yields Widely Oscillated Upward - By December 31, 2025, the yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year CDB bonds changed by 25BP, 17BP, and 27BP respectively; the yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 15BP, 8BP, 9BP, and - 41BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 4BP, 12BP, 11BP, and 61BP respectively. Overall, yields of various maturities generally rose, and credit spreads of major maturities and ratings of credit bonds narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [10][11] 2. Treasury Bond Yields Oscillated Higher - The bond market in 2025 can be divided into several stages. From January to mid - March, due to tightened money supply, short - term yields rose rapidly. After the Two Sessions in March, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90%. From late March to April, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to the 1.63% - 1.67% range. From May to June, long - end yields fluctuated slightly. From July to September, yields oscillated upward, showing a "bear steepening" pattern. From October to December, yields showed an oscillating trend [2][12][16] 3. Credit Spreads - All Grades of Credit Spreads First Narrowed and Then Widened - In 2025, credit spreads first fluctuated and narrowed, then slightly widened. In the first half of the year, they mainly narrowed, and in the second half, they widened with the bond market correction. Short - end credit spreads had a smaller correction range [17][19] 4. The Risk of Implicit Rating Downgrade in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In 2025, the amount of credit bonds with implicit rating downgrades in the ChinaBond market was 865.5 billion, with a significant year - on - year increase. The total amount of implicit rating upgrades was 422.2 billion, significantly lower than the previous year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples decreased compared with the previous year [25] 5. Default Risk Generally Declined, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In 2025, there were 9 new first - time defaulting issuers. According to the broad default standard, the default amount was 17.5 billion, and the default rate was 0.04%, with a significant decline year - on - year. Defaulting entities were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds of private enterprises, and the default rate of real - estate bonds and private enterprises both declined [27][30] 6. The Recovery Rate Remained Low - In 2025, defaulted bonds recovered 24.53 billion in principal. From 2014 to the present, defaulted bonds have paid a total of 129.4 billion in principal, and the payment rate of overdue principal was 12.4% [32]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be delayed until late April 2024, following the December rate cut, with a focus on employment data and inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - Inflation pressures are decreasing, and future focus will be on employment data due to the impact of government shutdowns on economic data quality [2]. - The real estate market is weak, and the employment market is relatively sluggish, indicating that inflation pressures will remain manageable in the near term [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Focus - The two main themes that could change market expectations in 2026 are the release of the 14th Five-Year Plan during the Two Sessions and the continuous improvement of the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan will provide clearer growth expectations and market capacity, while PPI improvements will be crucial for corporate profitability and market sentiment [3]. Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market - The market outlook for the first half of 2026 is positive, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and improved domestic liquidity, creating a dual-driven market [4]. - AI remains a key focus for 2026, with expectations for accelerated domestic semiconductor hardware production and increased AI application deployment, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology and Internet sectors [4]. - The recovery of corporate profits in 2026 is supported by a trend against excessive competition, benefiting upstream metals and certain industrial companies [4]. Group 4: Non-Banking Sector - Non-banking sector performance has been significantly upgraded recently, with insurance and brokerage firms expected to benefit from market stabilization [5]. Group 5: Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Sector - The innovative pharmaceutical sector shows stable performance and is worth holding, with potential for recovery upon the release of new business development projects [6]. - In the consumer sector, certain areas like collectible toys have seen valuations drop to around 15 times earnings for 2026, and ongoing government consumer subsidies are expected to support recovery [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the evolution of model architecture, with multimodal and long-text capabilities laying the foundation for the explosion of Agents in the AI sector [1] - The report highlights that the commercial paths of large model vendors are diverging, with a significant increase in demand for reasoning expected by 2026, which will reshape the SaaS market landscape [1] - The analysis of the stock price trends of major US tech giants over the past three years shows a continuous progression of the AI narrative, with OpenAI leading the acceleration in 2023 and Microsoft benefiting from its exclusive partnership [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the ongoing evolution of model architecture, noting that the next generation of models must address two core pain points: the computational and memory consumption bottlenecks during the training phase, and the limited memory capacity during inference [2] - It is projected that the Scaling Law will continue to be relevant, with advancements in pre-training, post-training, and reasoning scenarios, while reinforcement learning is expected to become a key breakthrough area [2] - The report indicates that the gap between Chinese and US models is currently around 3-6 months, with computational power and algorithms being critical for catching up [2] Group 3 - The report identifies that no clear winner has emerged in the general large model capabilities, with different vendors pursuing distinct commercialization paths [3] - OpenAI is noted for its strong consumer base of 800 million users, while Gemini is recognized as the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmark due to its commitment to a native multimodal approach [3] - Anthropic is highlighted for its focus on the B2B market, achieving a valuation of $350 billion, while Grok is expected to leverage Tesla's unique data advantages for its next-generation models [3] Group 4 - The report anticipates that the demand for AI applications will continue to grow, with the software development landscape being reshaped by large models, which are expected to open up new ceilings for software demand [4] - It cites IDC data projecting the global SaaS market to reach nearly $1 trillion by 2029, a significant increase from $580 billion in 2025, although it notes that the competitive landscape among players will be reshuffled [4] - The report observes that large model vendors are beginning to collaborate with B2B software service providers to develop more industry-specific demands [4] Group 5 - The report predicts an explosion in demand for reasoning capabilities by 2026, with AI programming, AI Agents, and AI content creation being the primary application areas driving growth [5] - It highlights the rapid growth of several AI applications, including AI programming software Cursor, which has reached an ARR of $1 billion, and AI agent Manus, which achieved $100 million in ARR within eight months [5] - The report suggests that as model capabilities mature, there will be noticeable growth in AI applications in consumer devices and enterprise distribution channels [5]

Core Insights - The capital market showed positive trends in 2025, with active trading reflected in the turnover data of the "Long Hu Bang" (龙虎榜) trading departments, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with significant changes in the rankings of the top 100 trading departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" departments [1][3] Trading Volume and Rankings - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Long Hu Bang 123,900 times, with a total trading volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% year-on-year increase [2] - The top 100 trading departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan, representing 67.66% of the total trading volume, indicating a strong head effect [2] - The top ten positions saw significant representation from Oriental Fortune Securities, which held three spots, with the top position taken by the Lhasa Tuanjie Road department at 127.87 billion yuan [2] Emergence of New Players - New entrants made notable advancements, such as Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie department rising from 27th to 3rd place, and UBS and Goldman Sachs' Shanghai departments entering the top ten [2][3] - Several "dark horse" departments made significant leaps, including Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an New Zha Road department moving from 559th to 14th, and Guosheng Securities' Ningbo Tiantong South Road department from 1014th to 48th [3] Growth of Branch Offices - The rankings of many brokerage branch offices improved significantly, showcasing their growth potential, with 22 branch offices appearing in the top 100 list [3] - Notably, Guoxin Securities' Zhejiang Internet branch, established only about five years ago, entered the top ten, while Guojin Securities' Shenzhen branch improved from 65th to 26th [3] Foreign Brokerage Participation - Six foreign brokerage departments made it into the top 50, reflecting their increasing importance in the market [4] - UBS's Shanghai Garden Shiqiao Road department and Goldman Sachs' Shanghai Pudong Century Avenue department ranked 8th and 9th, respectively, with significant improvements from the previous year [4] Market Trends and Insights - The changes in the Long Hu Bang rankings reflect the competitive landscape among brokerages, indicating differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength [5] - The trading activities of the top departments suggest a preference for sectors such as general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors [5]

近日，据中国证券监督管理委员会网上办事服务平台信息显示，浙江证监局受理了浙江安特磁材股份有限公司提交的向不 特定合格投资者公开发行股票并在北京证券交易所上市辅导备案的申请，备案时间为2025年12月31日，辅导机构为国信证 券。 | ムオス付帯デムホ | | 排分以涨 | 채널 AM N A | 用受时间 新学校园 | I wound 报自宋里 | ROMAS | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 天津 | | 浙江安特磁材股份有限公司 国信证券股份有限公司 | | 2025-12-31 辅导备案 | 浙江证监局 辅导备案报告 | 关于浙江安特磁材 ... | | 河北 | H 山西 | 江嘉泰激光科技股份有限 国联民生证券承销保存有限 2025-12-25 辅导备案 | | | 浙江证监局 | 关于浙江嘉泰激光 .. | | 内蒙古 辽宁 | | 公司 | 公司 | | | | 据辅导备案报告披露，国信证券与安特磁材辅导协议签署时间为2025年12月11日。另外，参与辅导工作的证券服务机构还 包括浙江六和律师事务所及天健会计师事务所（特殊普通合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 26-year bull market is characterized by continued policy easing, an incomplete bull market cycle, and a shift in the market's fundamental recovery and structural dynamics [1][2][20]. Group 1: Unchanging Factors - The policy environment remains accommodative, similar to the 1999 bull market, with a focus on combating deflation through various monetary and fiscal measures [3][4][8]. - Historical patterns of bull and bear market cycles suggest that the current bull market is not yet at its peak, as market sentiment has not reached extreme levels [12][13]. Group 2: Changing Factors - The fundamental recovery is expected to expand from specific sectors to a broader market, supported by increased retail investor participation as the bull market progresses into its later stages [21][22][25]. - The technology sector is anticipated to shift from infrastructure development to application expansion, with traditional assets like liquor and real estate potentially facing revaluation opportunities [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities (002736) has experienced a slight decline in stock price, closing at 13.12 yuan as of December 31, 2025, down 0.98% from the previous week, with a total market capitalization of 134.372 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Trading Information - On December 29, Guosen Securities recorded a block trade amounting to 4.0214 million yuan [2][7] - Shareholder changes include a reduction by FAW Equity Investment (Tianjin) Co., Ltd., which sold 22 million shares, representing 0.2148% of the total share capital, at an average price of 13.06 yuan per share [2][7] Group 2: Institutional Research Highlights - The company is innovating in investment advisory services by launching a "full account commission" advisory service and introducing products like "Stock Selection Treasure" and "North New Dynamic+" [3][7] - Wealth management business is acquiring clients through offline branches, online platforms, and banks, with an increasing proportion of online channel acquisitions [4] Group 3: Self-Operated Investment Strategy - The company plans to closely monitor changes in fundamentals and market risk preferences, adhering to a prudent investment approach and enhancing its asset allocation-focused investment system [5] Group 4: Asset Management Initiatives - The asset management subsidiary has officially commenced operations, focusing on risk control and compliance management while developing "fixed income+" products such as convertible bonds and derivatives [6] - The company has no immediate plans for capital replenishment but will assess market conditions and policies [6] Group 5: Dividend Policy - Since 2021, the company has maintained a cash dividend payout ratio exceeding 40% for four consecutive years, positioning itself favorably among large listed brokerages [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to high-quality development and innovation, aligning with national goals for modernization and financial strength, while achieving significant milestones in various sectors [2][5]. Group 1: Achievements and Developments - The company has maintained the highest international credit rating among domestic brokerages (Fitch "BBB+") and has received multiple awards for its governance and sustainable development practices [2][3]. - In the past year, the company has implemented 56 reform measures to enhance its comprehensive financial service capabilities and has successfully completed the acquisition of Wanhe Securities, promoting growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Hainan Free Trade Port [3][10]. - The company has expanded its brand influence and received recognition for its governance, including being awarded the "Best Practice Case of the Board of Directors" for three consecutive years [2][11]. Group 2: Strategic Focus Areas - The company is committed to strengthening technology finance, providing a full range of financial services to technology enterprises, and has facilitated the launch of the first private equity science and technology bonds in the country [4][11]. - It has initiated carbon emission trading business to support the "dual carbon" goals and has issued the first green technology innovation bonds in the market [4][11]. - The company is enhancing its digital finance capabilities by embracing emerging technologies like AI, aiming to drive the construction of a "smart" financial platform [4][11]. Group 3: Future Vision - The company aims to become a world-class comprehensive investment bank with a global perspective and local advantages, focusing on serving the real economy and promoting new productive forces [5][12]. - The company plans to deepen its understanding of the Party's economic work and strengthen its leadership in financial services, aligning with the national strategy for building a financial powerhouse [5][12].