本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 因部分货源仍处于出口集港中，国内尿素企业库存延续下降但降幅收窄，短期尿素集港尚在持续，另外部 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 分企业检修，将会一定程度降低库存水平，但内需走弱将影响整体去库幅度。UR2509合约短线建议在1730 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 -1800区间交易。 免责声明 | | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polysilicon market continued to rebound today, mainly due to the continued price increase by leading silicon wafer manufacturers. However, there was little action from downstream photovoltaic modules, resulting in poor transmission in the industrial chain. With potential supply increases, uncertain demand growth, and considering policy and macro - economic factors, it is recommended to temporarily observe or consider laying out put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 50,805 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan; the main position volume was 140,638 lots, up 4,343 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon was - 75 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 41,455 yuan/ton, up 965 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 2,905 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the spot price was 9,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream**: The monthly output of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, up 4.34 [2]. 3.2 Industry News The market price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise. With the increase in polysilicon prices and positive industry policy signals, the market expected silicon wafer prices to rise. Downstream battery enterprises began to accept price - increased orders, prompting silicon wafer manufacturers to raise prices. Leading enterprises raised their quotes, with 183N rising to 1.2 yuan/piece, 210RN to 1.35 yuan/piece, and 210N to 1.55 yuan/piece [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, but the production capacity will be released in August, having limited impact on July's supply. Although there is no significant change in recent production data, a potential supply increase trend is emerging [2]. - **Demand**: The demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry decreased slightly, and the new order transaction activity of silicon materials increased, indicating that the wait - and - see sentiment of silicon wafer enterprises is being digested. However, photovoltaic module manufacturers are pressing down on prices when purchasing polysilicon due to the price war, and the demand - side support is insufficient. Next week, if the new quotes of silicon wafer enterprises can be implemented, it will stimulate the demand for polysilicon; otherwise, the growth of polysilicon demand will be limited [2].

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-07-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3576 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -37023 | 891 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) | -67 | 11 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 250165 | -1151 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 3 | 3 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 3.26 | 0 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -317 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 111.91 | 1.02 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 104.09 | -4.59 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 3.88 | 0 新增雏鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 76 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/7/29 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,615.00 55.00 | -145.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0.00 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,243.00 28.00 | -185.00↓ +3.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 285,172.00 | -16798.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 798.00 | +12.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 482,200 | -7237↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 27.5 | -1.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -13772 | +12027↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 3,400.00 | 0.00 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,503 | +106↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1612699 | +131532↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -81,030 | -15423↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -4 | +8↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 57772 | -590↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 156 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,480.00 | +20.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,470.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,500.00 | +20.00↑ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand will not change significantly, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,017.5 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars [3] - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,376 lots, down 5,605 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,614 lots, up 825 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 60,932 tons, up 973 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,650 tons, down 2,625 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.31 dollars/ton, down 3.89 dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan was 16,179 yuan, up 83 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.81%, up 2.97 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.35 million tons, up 0.03 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [3] - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,182.14 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [3] - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,771.66 points, up 11.26 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles [3] - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump believes the Fed must cut interest rates this week [3] - Bangladesh wants to buy Boeing planes and hopes the US will lower tariffs; South Korea aims to reach a tariff agreement with the US; the US and the EU are discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits; Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs; Canada - US trade negotiations are tense; Chile expects copper tariff exemptions [3] - Trump is disappointed with Putin and is considering giving Russia less than two weeks to reach a cease - fire agreement [3] 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead production has declined due to falling lead prices, and secondary lead supply is tight due to scarce raw materials and slow resumption of production [3] - The lead battery industry is approaching the peak season, but actual demand is weak, and inventory is rising, indicating slow demand [3] - Shanghai lead supply is expected to decline slightly, demand will remain stable, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,347.00 | +99↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2175237 | +239356↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 88542 | +94480↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -37 | +4↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 85034 | +594↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 156 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,480.00 | +50↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,569 | +51↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +10↑ 天津 HRB400 ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-07-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -17 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 2302 87 | -6 玉米淀粉月间价差(9-11):(日,元/吨) | 2666 81 | -17 -1 | | 吨) | | | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 期货市场 | 794329 | -11231 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 175002 | 1570 | | -1604 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -22888 | | -15707 | 9412 | | 手) | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 160521 | -7358 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 6499 | -100 | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | | 36 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the improvement of market risk - appetite, the global major stock index futures and non - US currencies generally rebounded, leading to a slowdown in gold's safe - haven demand. The median forecast from a Reuters survey of 40 analysts and traders raised the 2025 gold price from $3,065 to $3,220 per ounce and expected it to reach $3,400 in 2026 [2]. - The $3300 level of the outer - market gold price may form strong support. Central bank gold - buying demand remains the cornerstone of gold demand, with China having increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, and nearly 40% of central banks considering geopolitical risks as an important reason to increase gold positions [2]. - Trump's threat of sanctions on Russia's oil exports due to the Ukraine war led to a 2.3% increase in Brent crude to $69.90 per barrel, indicating that geopolitical risks are still high and providing side - support for gold [2]. - Future Fed policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data are potential driving factors. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is consolidated, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. A significant shortfall in subsequent PCE growth may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 771.44 yuan/gram, down 3.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9195 yuan/kg, down 17 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract holding volume of Shanghai gold was 212,407 lots, an increase of 2,732 lots; that of Shanghai silver was 392,743 lots, a decrease of 5,678 lots. The top 20 net positions of the Shanghai gold main contract were 155,575 lots, a decrease of 1,058 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 128,368 lots, a decrease of 781 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 31,263 kg, an increase of 1,005 kg; that of silver was 1,204,866 kg, a decrease of 3,403 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 767.04 yuan/gram, down 3.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 9146 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.4 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.19 yuan; that of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 49 yuan/kg, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 253,038 contracts, an increase of 39,923 contracts; those of silver were 60,620 contracts, an increase of 1,172 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.24%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.76%, a decrease of 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.34%, a decrease of 0.73%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.35%, a decrease of 0.73% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Trade and Politics**: Trump may impose a 15% - 20% uniform tariff on imports from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. Sino - US high - level officials restarted tariff negotiations in Stockholm, aiming to extend the August 12 tariff truce by 90 days. The EU and the US reached an important agreement, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement, reducing geopolitical risks. However, Trump expressed disappointment with Putin again, and there were still frictions after the temporary cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [2]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The European Central Bank's hawkish official Kazimir said that the bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again, and the reason for action in September is not sufficient unless there is a major unexpected economic turn [2].