Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint PVC price is under pressure due to weak supply - demand situation after the digestion of previous macro - positive factors. V2509 is expected to pay attention to the support around 4870 yuan/ton on the daily K - line [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4955 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the trading volume is 777,706 lots, down 41,330 lots; the open interest is 966,325 lots, down 16,216 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 790,748 lots, down 4,809 lots; the short position is 806,539 lots, down 8,301 lots; the net long position is - 15,791 lots, up 3,492 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4855.38 yuan/ton, down 13.08 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4960 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4863.75 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 94 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2621.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. - The CFR middle price of VCM in the Far East is 503 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 548 US dollars/ton, down 16 US dollars [3]. - The CFR middle price of EDC in the Far East is 211 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 219 US dollars/ton, up 31 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, down 1.59 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, up 2.48 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, up 1.96 tons; the inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, up 1.95 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.29 tons, up 0.01 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14 [3]. - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23,183.61 million square meters, up 5,347.77 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625,019.54 million square meters, up 4,704.49 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, up 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.18%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.89%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 19.73%, down 0.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 17, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou remained stable at 4810 - 4890 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous period [3]. - As of July 17, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.42% to 65.73 tons month - on - month, and decreased by 31.15% year - on - year [3]. 3.8 Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis - Supply: Last week, PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.47% to 76.97%. In July, domestic PVC plants are under centralized maintenance. Yidongdongxing's 300,000 - ton plant is planned to stop for maintenance this week, and some previously shut - down plants will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise month - on - month. The trial operation of new plants of Bohua and Wanhua will increase the medium - and long - term supply pressure on the industry [3]. - Demand: It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month [3]. - Cost: There is still uncertainty about calcium carbide production restrictions in Inner Mongolia. Due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports to China, domestic ethylene supply tends to be loose, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC may continue to decline in the short term [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term LLDP E continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should focus on the support around 7160 and the resistance around 7260. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7215 yuan/ton, with a change of 1. The closing price of the January contract is 7235 yuan/ton, up 10; the closing price of the May contract is 7209 yuan/ton, up 9; the closing price of the September contract is 7215 yuan/ton, up 1. [2] - The trading volume is 181,546 hands, down 22,735; the open interest is 434,235 hands, down 2621. [2] - The spread between the January and May contracts is 26. [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 359,889 hands, up 1289; the short position is 401,569 hands, down 607; the net long position is - 41,680 hands, up 1896. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7198.7 yuan/ton, down 7.39; in East China, it is 7301.22 yuan/ton, down 17.8. [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis is - 16.3, down 8.39. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.75 US dollars/barrel, down 0.13; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 581.38 US dollars/ton, down 2.37. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.41%, down 0.3; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, unchanged. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.05%, up 0.04; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.06%, up 0.04. [2] 3.8 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, China's total polyethylene production was 609,100 tons, up 0.52% from last week. [2] - From July 4th to 10th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% compared with the previous period. [2] - As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, up 7.34% from the previous period; as of July 11th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 536,600 tons, up 3.68% from the previous period. [2] 3.9 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of LLDPE remains weak, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. [2] - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. [2] - ExxonMobil and Jilin Petrochemical's new devices have production expectations, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. [2] - The downstream off - season continues, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. [2] - Recently, international oil prices have been weak, weakening cost support. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the iron ore industry, suggesting that the price of iron ore will continue to be strongly supported [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to positive macro - level expectations and the continued support of molten iron demand, the iron ore price is expected to remain strong. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows a golden cross at a high level, with the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 785.50 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan; the position volume is 703,244 hands, up 12,867 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 33 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 6,516 hands, down 1,368 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,000.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 100.75 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.81 US dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 835 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines is 808 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 714 yuan/dry ton, up 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 22 yuan, down 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 99.10 US dollars/ton, up 0.95 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.36, down 0.04. The estimated import cost is 815 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil is 2,987.10 million tons, down 7.80 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,883.20 million tons, up 347.70 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,346.89 million tons, down 139.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,979.64 million tons, up 61.07 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,594.80 million tons, up 781.80 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.68 million tons, down 0.72 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 62.83%, down 1.57%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 50.72 million tons, down 1.59 million tons. The BDI index is 1,906.00, up 40.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 21.01 US dollars/ton, up 0.50 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.47 US dollars/ton, up 0.29 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.99%, up 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.82%, up 0.39%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.31%, up 0.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.86%, up 1.68% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,393.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 123.8 million tons, and the current inventory is at a relatively high level since the beginning of the year. According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber is 2,718.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95.92 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder is 112.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 24.24, a week - on - week decrease of 0.80 [2].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) +27↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 3,133.00 | | 2126876 | -10181↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 13799 | +29622↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | -2↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 94600 | -2089↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 159 | +12↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,270.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,354 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-07-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -59 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 284912 | -78678 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 399614 | 8249 9月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 7221 | -42 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 182446 | -21932 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -27055 | -2627 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 426669 | 10876 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 0 | -7245 -2 | | 现货市场 | | 7946 | -10 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 896 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The supply of pure benzene remains ample due to the restart of large domestic plants and high port arrivals. Downstream demand is limited, mainly supported by styrene and caprolactam. There are plans for new downstream plants to start production this month, which may improve the supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the low - valuation situation of spot goods caused by weak supply - demand may continue, and the spot price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The daily operating range of BZ2603 is expected to be around 6070 - 6200 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6122 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the main settlement price is 6139 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The main trading volume is 12912 lots, down 1137 lots; the main open interest is 13126 lots, down 765 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions are 5960 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 5950 yuan/ton, and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 yuan/ton, - 60 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 5950 yuan/ton and 5675 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 50 yuan/ton and 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) is 724 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in China is 740.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 70.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.93 dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 581.38 dollars/ton, down 2.37 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 43.17 tons, down 0.16 tons. The port inventory is 17.4 tons, down 0.3 tons [2]. - The production cost of pure benzene is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 79.21%, down 0.82%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 95.72% (up 6.41%), 78.54% (down 0.46%), 69.24% (down 0.1%), and 64.3% (up 2%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 584 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [2]. - As of July 14th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 16.4 tons, down 5.75% from the previous period [2]. - BZ2603 fluctuated weakly, closing at 6122 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of shutdowns of petroleum benzene plants expanded, with the capacity utilization rate down 0.29% to 77.85%; three hydrogenated benzene plants shut down, with the capacity utilization rate down 9.32% to 61.95% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose liquidity continues, which still provides positive support for the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space of yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate. Given that there is no directional turn in the policy environment and fundamentals, investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.05%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively, while the TS main contract closing price increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 1203, 616, 81, and 2014 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased by 0.01, 0.04, and 0.02 respectively, while the spread of TS2512 - 2509 remained unchanged. The spreads of T09 - TL09 remained unchanged, and the spreads of TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 increased by 0.03, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2732, 3823, 718, and 2238 respectively. Among the top 20 long - positions, T and TS decreased by 1044 and 793 respectively, while TF and TL increased by 603 and 412 respectively. Among the top 20 short - positions, T decreased by 184, TF decreased by 730, TS decreased by 25, and TL increased by 170. The net short - positions of T and TS increased by 860 and 768 respectively, while those of TF and TL decreased by 1333 and 242 respectively [2] 3.4 CTD (Clean Price) - The clean prices of 250007.IB, 240020.IB, 210014.IB decreased by 0.0380, 0.0175, 0.0832 respectively, while the clean prices of 220010.IB, 250006.IB, 240010.IB, 210005.IB increased by 0.0168, 0.0262, 0.0090, 0.0637 respectively [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 1.30bp, 1.65bp, 1.11bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 17.02bp, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.90bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.43bp and increased by 2.00bp respectively, and the Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.20bp and 2.00bp respectively [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 520.1 billion yuan and 444.6 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 75.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24865.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the fixed - asset investment in June decreased by 0.12% month - on - month. From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. In the first half of the year, the total value of China - US imports and exports was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, among which exports decreased by 9.9% and imports decreased by 7.7%. The China - US trade turned from a year - on - year increase in the first quarter to a year - on - year decrease in the second quarter, with a decline of 20.8% [2] 3.10 Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends. The yields of 1 - 3Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 0.85bp, the yields of 5 - 7Y bonds increased by about 0.50bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.30bp and 0.50bp respectively. Most Treasury bond futures declined, with the TS main contract rising by 0.01%, and the TF, T, TL main contracts falling by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05% respectively [2] 3.11 Domestic Fundamentals - In June, industrial added value and retail sales showed a slight recovery, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained the same as the previous month. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the activity of deposits increased. In June, affected by the progress of China - US trade negotiations, imports and exports increased significantly year - on - year. The price level continued to be under pressure, with CPI improving marginally and PPI falling into deflation for 7 consecutive months [2] 3.12 Overseas Situation - In June, the US core CPI was continuously lower than expected, but due to the recent US tariff policy, inflation risks continued to rise. There were greater differences within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautious and wait - and - see, and there was no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract decreased in position and consolidated. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that there's no need to worry about the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs between the U.S. and China, and the negotiation situation is "good", with talks expected in the next few weeks. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.55%. Factory inventories decreased while social inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 0.63 tons. Apparent demand decreased slightly but remained above 3.2 million tons. Overall, hot-rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, terminal demand has strong resilience, and tariff disturbances affect market sentiment. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,253 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position volume was 1,549,973 lots, down 16,803 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 21,898 lots, down 1,037 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 18 yuan/ton, unchanged; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,501 tons, down 2,086 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 147 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 57 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; the billet inventory in Hebei was 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.87%, down 0.40%. The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.2314 million tons, down 50,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.55%, down 1.28%. The hot - rolled coil factory inventory of sample steel mills was 778,100 tons, down 5,100 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.6775 million tons, up 11,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, up 145,600 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, up 218,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.51 million units, up 331,000 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 9.412 million units, down 239,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that an agreement was reached with Indonesia. Indonesian goods exported to the U.S. will pay a 19% tariff, while U.S. exports are tariff - free. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.48654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. After deducting the impact of price factors, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.3% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in June decreased by 0.12% [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the current high good - rate of US soybeans and concentrated arrival of imported soybeans lead to short - term supply relaxation and pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture increases the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The domestic rapeseed meal market is stronger than the external market due to trade policy uncertainty, and it may maintain short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the increase in palm oil inventory and the weakening of palm oil prices, along with the off - season of domestic oil consumption and high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, restrain the market price. However, the decline in rapeseed oil production pressure and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future supply. The rapeseed oil market is boosted by the strengthening of soybean oil and shows increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9470 yuan/ton (up 66 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2653 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), ICE rapeseed is 689 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.5 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5065 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan) [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 72 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 344 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 14661 lots (up 228 lots), and for rapeseed meal are 24639 lots (up 10416 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 8911 (down 1175) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9570 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the oil - meal ratio is 3.64 (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 166 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 93 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8230 yuan/ton (unchanged), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8770 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2820 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the domestic annual forecast is 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and inventory: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 297 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86% (down 2.67%) [2]. Industry Situation - Imports and inventories: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.29 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons (up 1.05 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 million tons (up 1.18 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.46 million tons (up 0.14 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons (up 98.1 million tons), and that of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons. The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.25% (down 0.17%), and that of put options is 19.25% (down 0.18%). For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of call options is 11.73% (down 1.76%), and that of put options is 11.72% (down 1.77%) [2]. Industry News - On July 15, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, driven by the rise of other oils. The most actively traded November contract rose 8.20 Canadian dollars to 690.80 Canadian dollars per ton. As of July 13, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, up 4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the expected 67% [2].

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-07-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3591 | -24 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -28810 | -2588 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) | -21 | -16 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 246092 | 7505 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 2.8 | 0.01 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -792 | 38 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 110.89 | -1.46 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 108.68 | 11.92 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 3.9 | 0 新增雏鸡指数:全国(月,2015=10 ...