Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in nickel supply cost and the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply side is facing cost - upside - down pressure, leading to increased production cuts by steel mills. Domestic anti - involution measures may help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to further decline. On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and hesitant downstream buyers. Domestic inventory de - stocking is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking performance after production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions, and the MA10 support level should be monitored. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The recommended operation is to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, down 595 lots; the main contract position is 100,817 lots, up 46,026 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,872 tons, down 119 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, down 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, down 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, down 1,000 units [2] Industry News - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 0.1%. The increase was mainly due to rising energy prices. The EU Trade Commissioner said that although the negotiations are quite close in principle, there are still huge differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, indicating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [2]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/7/16 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,475.00 | +45.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 3,111.00 | -54.00↓ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 75.00 | +40.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | -88.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 194,458.00 | -10736.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 239,364.00 | +6732.00↑ | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The external gold price is oscillating within the range of $3300 - $3400. The increase in long - term yields pushes up real interest rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero - coupon gold and exerting downward pressure on the gold price. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts provides support for gold. For silver, although the demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to decline in 2025, the commodity attribute is strongly supported by the semiconductor industry. Short - term speculative long - position reduction may bring adjustment pressure, and there is still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair in the medium term. In operation, the idea of bottom - fishing is still adopted, and short - term correction risks should be noted. The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract focuses on the range of 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract focuses on the range of 8900 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 776.66 yuan/gram, down 3.74 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9152 yuan/kilogram, down 73 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 200,708 lots, an increase of 2,438 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 430,521 lots, a decrease of 19,594 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 140,521 lots, an increase of 830 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 144,154 lots, a decrease of 2,822 lots. The gold warehouse receipt quantity is 28,872 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipt quantity is 1,212,789 kilograms, a decrease of 10,170 kilograms [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 771.4 yuan/gram, down 3.4 yuan; the spot price of silver is 9103 yuan/kilogram, down 43 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.34 yuan/gram, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 49 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, and the silver ETF position is 14,856.02 tons, a decrease of 110.22 tons. The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, and the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, a decrease of 4,879 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 54.84 tons, and the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 54.83 tons, and the total global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.19%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.65%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.08%, down 0.72% [2] Industry News - Trump and the Indonesian President reached an agreement, and Indonesia will open the whole market to the US for the first time. The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Traders predict that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in September and cut interest rates nearly twice by the end of the year. The US Treasury Secretary said that the selection process of the next Fed Chairman has officially started. The EU will postpone the implementation of trade counter - measures to August 6 if the trade negotiation with the US fails. The expectation of interest rate cuts weakens the attractiveness of the US dollar and supports the US - dollar - denominated gold. The 30 - year US Treasury yield has reached a two - month high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and exerting downward pressure on the gold price. There are differences within the Fed on interest rate cuts, and after the new tariffs take effect on August 1, different situations will have different impacts on the gold price [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated weakly. In the macro - aspect, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%; the factory inventory increased and the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory of 5.4037 million tons declined slightly again, and the apparent demand decreased by 33,700 tons. Overall, the sluggish real - estate data affected market confidence, the speculative demand for rebar was not active, and the trading performance was mediocre. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA continued to adjust downward. The operation strategy is to be bearish on fluctuations, and pay attention to the support around 3090 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the position volume was 2,137,057 lots, down 16,795 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 15,823 lots, down 7,662 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 44 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 96,689 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 147 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 154 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, up 0.42 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 97.53%, up 10.19 percentage points; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 898,700 tons, down 4,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar of sample steel mills was 47.49%, down 0.98 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar of sample steel mills was 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 60.42%, down 3.12 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 16, many places such as Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Sichuan issued red high - temperature warnings, and the local temperature in some areas of Wuhan, Jingmen, and Huanggang in Hubei could reach over 41°C. From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly bullish with fluctuations. Continued attention should be paid to the production situation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract was 7,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; the position of the main contract was 96,814 lots, a decrease of 144 lots; the number of apple warehouse receipts was 0; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 7,606 lots, a decrease of 1,200 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) was 4 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production was 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple production in the new season will be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan; the total national apple cold - storage inventory was 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.82 million tons; the storage ratio of Shandong apples was 0.13, a decrease of 0.01; the storage ratio of Shaanxi apples was 0.06, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly apple export value was 51.525 million US dollars, a decrease of 25.529 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 2,201,050.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan; the weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 9.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.28 yuan; the weekly fruit wholesale price of bananas was 6.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of watermelons was 3.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 7.8, with no change; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 11, a decrease of 0.8; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 19.4, a decrease of 0.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 17.29%, an increase of 0.45%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 17.3%, an increase of 0.46%; the 60 - day historical volatility of apples was 15.15%, with no change [2] Industry News - On July 16, 2025, there were few remaining apples in the western production areas, mainly concentrated in the Luochuan area, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was okay with stable prices. In the Shandong production area, the remaining fruit farmer's goods were mainly large fruits, and the medium and small fruits had basically been cleared. The trading speed of large fruits was slow, and transactions were mainly through bargaining. Merchant - owned goods were mainly self - picked and shipped, with little change in the market [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of apple cold - storage in the national main production areas was 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.81 million tons compared to the previous week. The inventory turnover speed changed little compared to the previous week and was still slower than the same period last year. The storage ratio in the Shandong production area was 13.21%, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous week, and the inventory reduction speed was slower year - on - year. The storage ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 5.72%, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the previous week, and the inventory turnover was slightly faster than the previous week [2]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The supply and demand in the nickel market are currently weak. The supply cost of nickel resources has increased due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. Some non - integrated smelters have chosen to reduce production due to profit losses. On the demand side, stainless steel mills have compressed profits and reduced production of the 300 - series, while the demand for ternary batteries has declined despite the continued increase in new energy vehicle production and sales. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has also accumulated again. Technically, it is in a range - bound adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [2] Group 3 - Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,550 yuan/ton, up 1,170 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,215 dollars/ton, up 150 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 54,128 hands, down 8,675 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 16,072 hands, down 927 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, up 708 tons. The上期所 nickel inventory is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,038 tons, up 720 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,049 tons, down 506 tons [2] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,550 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 210.81 dollars/ton, up 4.01 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 3.9272 million tons, up 1.0131 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 8.9649 million tons, up 0.2465 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons [2] Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas in the negotiation. The Central Urban Work Conference pointed out that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the suspension of additional tariffs [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22045 | -40 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 15 | 0 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2701.5 | -31 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 231620 | -4884 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 8851 | -3193 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 12161 | 977 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 49981 | 4617 LME库存(日,吨) | 118600 | 5200 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22050 | -100 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21710 | -100 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 5 | -60 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -9.95 | -4.34 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to show an overall trend of oscillating upward, supported by factors such as the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream textile industry will slow down the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,180 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 16,786 lots, down 2,027 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 137 lots, up 28 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 568,367 lots, up 21,679 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 20,395 lots, down 773 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,643 sheets, down 73 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price is 22,122 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price is 23,916 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,248 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850 thousand tons, up 24 thousand tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,458.7 thousand tons, down 693.9 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 40 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 100 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons. - Imported cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, up 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, up 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.43%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.37%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 5.09%, up 0.09%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 8.31%, down 0.04% [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' July 2025 China agricultural product supply - demand analysis shows that the forecast of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. As of the end of June, most cotton - growing areas in the country are in the budding to flowering stage, 4 - 7 days earlier than normal. - The China Meteorological Administration predicts that Xinjiang will have continuously high temperatures in July, with more high - temperature days than normal, and cotton is at high risk of heat damage. - According to the USDA weekly crop growth report, as of the week of July 13, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 23%, up from 14% last week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% last week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% last week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Although the US cotton rating has been revised upward, the forecast of dry weather in future production areas has boosted the US cotton futures price. The US imposes tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and there are threats of new tariffs on BRICS countries, so be vigilant about macro - factor risks. - In China, the textile industry is in the consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials due to rising raw material prices. As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 70.40%, down 0.84% month - on - month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 fell 2.10% to close at 2466 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device overhauls in Central and East China last week and increased load in some devices in South and North China. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.1% to 80.4% with little change. On the demand side, the alumina start - up rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, and the average profit of alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80% last week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 37.43 tons last week with little inventory pressure. The planned overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July decreased. Recently, the downstream start - up of liquid chlorine increased, and the inverted situation of liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, which repaired the chlor - alkali profit and opened up the room for the increase of the caustic soda start - up rate. There are many stop and restart devices this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 2420 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the futures holding volume was 259,807 lots, an increase of 13,653 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 13,152 lots, a decrease of 8,447 lots; the futures trading volume was 762,212 lots, an increase of 243,118 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2451 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal was 636 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the spot price of alumina was 3150 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [3].

| | | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 沪锡产业日报 2025-07-16 。近日锡价宽幅调整，下游逢低采买为主，现货升水500元/吨，国内库存小幅下降。而LME去库放缓，升 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 水下降。技术面，持仓低位多空分歧，三角震荡收敛，关注MA60支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考26.2- | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 263960 | 720 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33260 ...