Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - A股市场目前积极因素较多，2025年中国贸易顺差金额创新高，净出口预计支撑2025年GDP；美联储降息预期下调推动美元指数走强，但人民币在出口企业结汇需求和经济复苏预期下处于升值通道，汇率强势支撑一季度宽货币预期，股市向汇市逐步收敛；沪深北交易所提高融资保证金比例对市场短期有降温效果，但对春季行情持续演绎整体影响较小；因今年春节时间靠后，市场提前交易3月初两会政策预期，A股春季行情明显前置 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF主力合约（2603）最新4746.6，环比+13.6↑；IF次主力合约（2601）最新4752.0，环比+15.0↑ - IH主力合约（2603）3108.0，环比 -7.6↓；IH次主力合约（2601）3104.6，环比 -7.4↓ - IC主力合约（2603）8206.8，环比+31.6↑；IC次主力合约（2601）8217.4，环比+11.4↑ - IM主力合约（2603）8195.4，环比+37.2↑；IM次主力合约（2601）8254.8，环比+24.8↑ - IF - IH当月合约价差1647.4，环比+18.8↑；IC - IF当月合约价差3465.4，环比 -18.0↓等多种价差数据 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF前20名净持仓 -42,952.00，环比+1896.0↑；IH前20名净持仓 -17,364.00，环比+1240.0↑ - IC前20名净持仓 -35,402.00，环比 -1814.0↓；IM前20名净持仓 -51,836.00，环比 -303.0↓ [2] 3.3 Spot Price - 沪深300 4751.43，环比+9.5↑；IF主力合约基差 -4.8，环比 -2.9↓ - 上证50 3,105.6，环比 -6.5↓；IH主力合约基差 2.4，环比+0.5↑ - 中证500 8,223.3，环比 -4.4↓；IC主力合约基差 -16.5，环比+13.4↑ - 中证1000 8,240.8，环比 -16.4↓；IM主力合约基差 -45.4，环比+55.8↑ [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）29,384.94，环比 -10483.68↓；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）26,982.31，环比+152.38↑ - 北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）4636.33，环比+426.97↑；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元） -99.0，环比+10793.0等数据 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - 全部A股 4.30，环比 -1.40↓；技术面 4.10，环比 -0.90↓；资金面 4.60，环比 -1.70↓ [2] 3.6 Industry News - 1月14日海关总署数据，中国2025年12月出口（以人民币计价）同比增5.2%，前值增5.7%；进口增4.4%，前值增1.7%；贸易顺差8087.7亿元，前值7925.8亿元；出口（以美元计价）同比增6.6%，前值增5.9%；进口增5.7%，前值增1.9%；贸易顺差1141.4亿美元，前值1116.8亿美元 - 截至1月13日，A股超140家公司发布2025年业绩预告或快报，63家公司业绩预增，5家公司预告扭亏，72家公司净利润逾1亿元，22家净利润在10亿元以上 - 经证监会批准，沪深北交易所调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%，仅限于新开融资合约 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short - term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation state. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones due to the expected decline in production capacity, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 3066 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 59 [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is 4977 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 16845 [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is - 408 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8 [2]. - The futures position volume (active contract) of eggs is 260145 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4638 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.54 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 [2]. - The basis (spot - futures) is 477 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month decrease of 16 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 2.21 [2]. - The culled laying hen index nationwide is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 13.26 [2]. - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan per chick, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 [2]. - The new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 26.53 [2]. - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change [2]. - The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.29 yuan per hen, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 [2]. - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 8.16 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 [2]. - The average age of culled chickens nationwide is 500 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.06 [2]. - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.5 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 [2]. - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.58 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.2 [2]. - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [2]. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 178.74 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7377 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 7.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]. - The average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.60 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan from yesterday [2]. - The average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.67 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan from yesterday [2]. - The average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]. - Continuous losses in the breeding end have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the number of old hens culled, and the laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, with the market atmosphere slightly improving [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with the price range between 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 490 yuan/ton; the 02 - 03 contract price difference is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,915 lots, a decrease of 4,552 lots; the main contract position is 145,444 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 46,118 tons, a decrease of 413 tons [2] 现货市场 (Spot Market) - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,600 yuan/ton; the average price of 7 - 10% ferronickel nationwide is 1,030 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel point [2] - China's monthly chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 产业情况 (Industry Situation) - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 540,500 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 下游情况 (Downstream Situation) - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534,567,000 square meters, an increase of 43,953,100 square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] 行业消息 (Industry News) - In November in the US, retail sales unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption; energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, with the core PPI month - on - month lower than expected; US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and house price growth was the weakest in two and a half years [2] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January; voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance; 2025 voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation; Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest - rate cuts: the Trump administration's deregulation [2] - China's foreign trade accelerated its recovery in December. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a record high, rare - earth quotas increased by 32% year - on - year, and annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports fell by the largest margin in a decade [2] 观点总结 (Viewpoint Summary) - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. In the case of raw material supply contraction, ferronickel production will face pressure to reduce output [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Although it has bid farewell to the traditional peak demand season, the expected decline in production is actually limited, and supply pressure still exists [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes is starting to be felt. Market procurement willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, there is also not much inventory in the market, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal slight decline [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased this week, but as the urea price rises, the downstream trend of chasing up the price may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking range of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1770 - 1830 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1801 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the 5 - 9 price difference was 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [2] - The position volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 250303 lots, a decrease of 3453 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 19065, an increase of 2022 [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 13355, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1740, 1750, 1760, 1760, and 1760 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui increased by 10, 10, 20, and 10 yuan respectively, while the price in Hebei remained unchanged [2] - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea was 367.5 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port was 402.5 US dollars/ton, both with no change [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.22%, an increase of 2.93 percentage points; the daily urea output was 195,900 tons, an increase of 1700 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 600,000 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons; the monthly output of urea was 6,000,330 tons, an increase of 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 37.17%, an increase of 3.28 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 54.35%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 244 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was - 152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, an increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 28,300 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly this cycle [2] - As of January 15, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.29%. The overall port goods fluctuated little this week, with both departure and collection of goods [2] - As of January 15, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4051 million tons, an increase of 33,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.44%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 85.25%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points from the previous period, and the trend continued to rise [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were relatively stable, with the annual export value of $293.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, better than expected. The ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Wednesday. In the domestic market, the national cotton inspection is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up increases, Brazilian cotton arrives in a concentrated manner, and inventory continues to rise. Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than previous years, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. The expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year supports the cotton market to some extent, but recently, the external macro - environment has weakened, and cotton prices have adjusted accordingly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 174,613 lots, up 2,644 lots; main contract open interest of cotton: 835,832 lots, down 6,537 lots; cotton warehouse receipts: 9,329 lots, up 493 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,972 yuan/ton. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,665 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,721 lots, up 1 lot; main contract open interest of cotton yarn: 15,580 lots, down 176 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,634 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,010 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,754 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,418 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,328 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; cotton import volume: 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; imported cotton profit: 2,218 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days; monthly cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: $115,936,860, up $5,902,055.7; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: $122,757,331,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 13.24%, down 0.25%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.8%, down 0.18% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. Although the port methanol inventory has decreased, the total volume remains at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate continued to decline this week, and the average weekly operating rate is expected to drop next week [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2273 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 829,376 lots, an increase of 5,592 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 170,691 lots, a decrease of 24,096 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,355, an increase of 700 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port was 268 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 22.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 450,900 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 91.42%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 34.07%, a decrease of 4.17 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 2.96%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 76.99%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 88.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points; the disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1027 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.16%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.12%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 27.55%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 27.56%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of January 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China decreased. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The Zhejiang Xingxing MTO plant entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Affected by the bearish USDA report and the rising expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also in a weak oscillation recently. Although the current de - stocking mode supports the price and the basis remains high, the increasing long - term supply pressure due to the arrival of Australian rapeseeds and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations needs attention [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 8828 yuan/ton, down 121 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2283 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 14 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: Main contract positions of rapeseed oil were 258828 lots, up 12208 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 869905 lots, down 1046 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 20583 lots, up 650 lots; for rapeseed meal were - 201431 lots, down 19790 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 2142 sheets, down 80 sheets; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Averages and spreads: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9706.25 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7540.97 yuan/ton, down 45.57 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 3.95, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 772 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 67 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit was 365 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%; the at - the - money put option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%. The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.15% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.67%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 12.82%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.08%, down 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.1%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - On January 14th, ICE rapeseed futures declined, in line with the trend of Chicago soybean oil. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract fell 4.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 628.30 Canadian dollars per ton. The rapeseed trade is closely watching the news related to Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish for soybeans, dragging down rapeseed meal. Domestically, the supply of near - month Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed increases marginal supply. The market expects an improvement in China - Canada trade relations, increasing long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal, maintaining a weak oscillation [2]. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The USDA supply - demand report shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern for global and Canadian rapeseed, which restricts the market price. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China raises the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which may support the Canadian rapeseed market. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting the price, but the long - term supply pressure increases [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rebound of the SHFE-LME ratio may lead to the re - closure of the export window. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. The policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. Downstream markets mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The recent rapid increase in zinc prices has led to weak downstream purchasing, a decline in spot premiums, a slight decrease in domestic inventories, stable LME zinc inventories, and low spot premiums. [3] - Technically, with increasing trading volume and open interest, prices are rising, showing a strong bullish sentiment and breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will have a strong adjustment. Pay attention to the support of MA10, with the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 25,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 615 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,276 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 260,851 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 27,188 lots. [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 4,378 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 734 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 106,725 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 175 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 840 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 26,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,460 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 14.32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.03 US dollars/ton. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,470 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 220 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. [3] Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine output in the current month (monthly) is 1,066,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 665,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 111,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.34 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, with a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 28.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 5.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 28.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 5 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. [3] Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The growth was significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Rising energy costs pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI was lower than expected month - on - month. Existing home sales in December reached the strongest level since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years. [3] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January. Voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance. In 2025, voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation. Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest rate cuts: the deregulation of the Trump administration. [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance between 430,000 - 440,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 433,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,830 yuan/ton; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [3] - LME 3 - month tin is 53,462 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,934 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 38,434 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,968 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures in Shanghai Tin is - 2,306 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,850 lots; LME tin total inventory is 5,930 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,935 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,001 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 135 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 9,526 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,419 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 426,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20,500 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 435,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25,030 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 7,670 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,540 yuan/ton; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 105.98 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.7 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 11,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,900 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 393,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36,950 yuan/ton [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrates is 397,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 11,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 500 yuan/ton [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 7,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 500 yuan/ton [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 269,460 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12,610 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tinplate is 1.3901 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 144,700 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November back to a year - on - year increase of 3%, and the core PPI month - on - month increase was lower than expected. US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years [3] - Some Federal Reserve officials have different stances on interest rates. Kashkari supports Powell and advocates keeping interest rates unchanged in January, Paulson maintains a cautious stance, Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of independence in combating inflation, and Fed Governor Milan finds a new reason for interest rate cuts [3] - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, and the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low, and most enterprises are in a loss situation. It is expected that the production of refined tin will continue to be restricted and there will still be no year - on - year increase. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply restrictions in Indonesia. Recently, the import window is approaching, increasing import pressure [3] - On the demand side, the tin price has risen recently, the downstream procurement demand has weakened again, the inventory has increased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has decreased [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The position has decreased while the price has increased, with a strong long - position atmosphere, and there may be an adjustment [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo a strong short - term adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [3][4] - The Philippines has entered the rainy season, leading to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. Indonesia's plan to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year has raised market concerns about raw material supply shortages, but the long - term impact depends on the transmission process [3] - On the smelting side, Indonesia's nickel iron production remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. China has large refined nickel production capacity, and with the recent rebound in nickel prices and improved profits, the production of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - On the demand side, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, improving steel mill profits and leading to expected high production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, contributing a small increase in demand for ternary batteries [3] Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 146,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5,810 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,785 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,185 dollars/ton [3] - The 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 72,182 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,730 lots [3] - The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 101,498 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,357 lots. LME nickel inventory is 284,658 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 510 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,650 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,106 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 13,296 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 702 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 41,972 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,700 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,600 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 149,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,300 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The basis of the NI main contract is 3,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,210 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 198.76 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.33 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,319.77 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.26 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 72.18 dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.84 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of nickel iron is 2.21 million metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million metal tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, with an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.17 million tons, with a decrease of 3.83 million tons [3] - The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 89.54 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.97 million tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in stock is 54.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. Energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI month - on - month was lower than expected. US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years [3] - Some Fed officials in 2026 support maintaining the interest rate in January, while others hold a cautious stance. A Fed governor has found a new reason for interest rate cuts [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. Annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports had the largest decline in a decade [3]