Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton commercial inventory is continuously rising, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. The arrival of Brazilian cotton at ports increases the inventory. The downstream demand is generally weak, but the yarn price remains stable due to cost - driven factors. The growth in textile and clothing export in December supports the market. The previous expectation of reduced cotton planting area has been reflected in the market, and the market is expected to be in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 14,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 20,510 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 161,092 hands, an increase of 7,703 hands; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 1,365 hands, an increase of 102 hands. - Cotton main - contract positions are 801,019 hands, down 21,592 hands; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 14,778 hands, down 437 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,658 sheets, down 8 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 70 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,582 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,067 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,722 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,556 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 120,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 2,209 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.039 million tons, an increase of 38,000 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, an increase of 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 12,275,733 thousand US dollars, an increase of 1,731,408 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 13.35%, down 0.17%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 13.35%, down 0.19%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.02%, an increase of 0.25%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.12%, an increase of 0.09% [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. - According to the USDA report, in the week ending January 8, 2025/26, the net export sales of US upland cotton increased by 339,700 bales, reaching the annual high, a 247% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton was 156,100 bales, a 1% increase from the previous week and an 8% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2].

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11705 | -275 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 154389 | -7106 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 433 | -382 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -49295 | 2242 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13300 | 100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13100 | 500 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 1000 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 1595 | 375 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42967 | -713 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 3961 | -29 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) ...

一德期货：集运指数维持偏震荡的判断 上周集运指数先扬后抑，市场复航预期施压指数估值。为进一步推动春节前集中出运，船商不断降价揽 货，目前1月末-2月初市场报价主要集中在2400-2800美元/FEU区间，运力供给维持高位，若后市货量增 长不及预期，现货运价或将在1月底迎来拐点。上海航交所公布最新SCFI欧线为1676美元/TEU，较上期 下跌2.5%，上海港平均舱位利用率基本接近满载，航线运价小幅下跌。不过受光伏产品增值税出口退 税政策调整影响，一季度光伏等新能源产品抢运预期仍存，对运价或有边际支撑。因此不宜过分看空， 维持偏震荡的判断。策略上，现货企业继续以套期保值单持有为主，春节前已签订出运合同的企业同步 在期货端对买保头寸(EC2602)进行平仓；套利方面，可继续关注EC2604与EC2608合约之间正向套利机 会。 瑞达期货（002961）：多船司陆续调低价格，集运期价支撑减弱 现货运价方面，第四周报价大柜2600-3200美金不等，马士基第4周开舱大柜2700美金，环比第三周上行 100美金。地缘端，统泽连斯基在塞浦路斯访问期间表示，目前与美欧伙伴的谈判达到了一个新的水 平，有望在2026年上半年结 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the financial industry, but it provides specific recommendations for various sectors and companies within the industry [3][21]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a decline this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 2.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.06 percentage points. The banking sector saw a decline of 3.03%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points [1][9]. - The report highlights a structural interest rate cut by the central bank, which is expected to impact various financial sectors, particularly banks and insurance companies. The insurance sector is viewed as being in a critical window for performance and valuation recovery [3][21]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to stabilize the derivatives market, which is expected to benefit well-capitalized and compliant brokerage firms [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 2.63%, with the securities, insurance, and diversified financial indices down by 2.21%, 3.59%, and 1.83% respectively [1][9]. - The banking sector's performance was notably poor, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experiencing declines of 2.20%, 4.08%, 2.40%, and 2.20% respectively [1][9]. 2. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's index fell by 3.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points. The report indicates that regulatory cooling measures have created short-term pressure on the insurance sector, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to asset growth and interest margin recovery [1][13][15]. - Key companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and New China Life are recommended for investment due to their strong fundamentals and recovery potential [3][16]. 3. Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 2.21%, with the report emphasizing the potential benefits of new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the derivatives market. The focus is on larger, well-capitalized firms that can navigate the evolving regulatory landscape [2][17]. - Recommendations include major brokerages like Guotai Junan and Huatai Securities, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in profitability and valuation [2][18]. 4. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's index fell by 3.03%, with the central bank's recent interest rate cut expected to support the sector's performance in the long run. The report suggests that banks may see a gradual recovery in net interest income and profitability [3][21][22]. - Specific banks such as Hangzhou Bank and Ningbo Bank are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, particularly those with previously undervalued positions [3][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.59%, and the far - month contracts fell between 3% and 8%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1956.39, up 160.56 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.9% [6][39]. - The cancellation of the full - refund of value - added tax on photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. However, after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase fades, and the support from the spot side weakens, causing the futures price to decline [6][39]. - China's foreign trade level in December 2026 rebounded beyond expectations, with significant improvements in both imports and exports, possibly related to the cancellation of value - added tax export rebates for some commodities and pre - holiday rush exports. China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][39]. - Spot freight rates for the fourth week were between $2600 - $3200 for large containers. Maersk's large container price in the fourth week was $2700, up $100 from the third week [6][39]. - Geopolitically, there are expectations of an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has improved. Eurozone inflation pressure has eased, weakening the market's expectation of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank before the end of the year [6][39]. - Overall, the announced freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices. The effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy on rush exports has also quickly weakened after the trading sentiment cooled. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of shipping companies' announced price increases. Although trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the boost from the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious [7][40]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2602 fell 1.13%, EC2604 fell 2.59%, EC2606 fell 7.67%, EC2608 fell 3.61%, EC2610 fell 4.69%, and EC2612 fell 4.22%. The SCFIS index rose 8.9% [10]. - The price of the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first rose and then fell this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract showed differentiation [13][15]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The central bank took measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering re - loan and re - discount rates, increasing various loan quotas, and adjusting the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [19]. - The US will impose a 25% import ad - valorem tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from January 15 [19]. - The World Bank raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It predicted that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.2% in 2026, while the economic growth rates of the Eurozone and Japan will slow down [19]. - The EU will issue a guidance document on price commitment applications for the China - EU electric vehicle case, and China's electromechanical chamber of commerce will encourage and support relevant enterprises to apply for price commitments [19]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and price difference of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week [26]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly this week [27]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line rebounded slightly. The BDI and BPI declined this week, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [31]. - The charter price of Panamax ships declined this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [34]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined this week. The cancellation of the full - refund of value - added tax on photovoltaic products led to short - term price increases, but the effect weakened later. China's foreign trade improved in December, and spot freight rates increased slightly. Geopolitical factors improved the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation, and Eurozone inflation pressure eased [39]. - The announced freight rate increase has not been implemented, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The boost from the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [40].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01. 16」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 本周观点：本周广期所铂钯金主力合约区间震荡运行。宏观方面，美国去年11月PPI数据略高于预期，12月 CPI通胀走势延续温和态势，非农就业新增不及预期，年内50-75基点的降息空间仍存，联储扩表计划提振流 动性宽松叙事。供应端方面，俄罗斯矿业巨头诺里尔斯克净利同比骤降37%，并继续将销售重心东移以对冲 西方买家的规避情绪，引发市场对2026年钯金出口可靠性的再度担忧。南非方面，自去年 5 月中旬以来官 方已连续103天暂停强制性负荷削减，电力供应稳定度为近四年以来的最佳水平，令铂矿山短期停产概率显 著下降，但长期维护积压问题仍未根除。整体来看，2026年全球铂矿产量恢复速度仍落后于需求修复，世界 铂金投资协会(WPIC)继续预测供需缺口延续以及地上库存持续耗减的态势。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.16」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除上证指数下跌外，其余指数均有不同程度上涨。 四期指亦表现分化，中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。本周，海内外有大量经济数据公布，周一公 布的12月通胀数据进一步修复带动市场上行；周三公布的进出口数据显示，2025年我国贸易 顺差创出历史记录，净出口强劲同样支撑股市，股指盘中再创高位，然而随着午后，沪深北 交所宣布提高融资保证金比例，市场情绪降温，股指高位回落。本周，市场成交活跃度较上 周进一步上升。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收1.27盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.43 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated slightly higher. The global and Canadian canola supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which restricts prices. However, the improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports. There are also positive news from US biodiesel, and the supply side has continued to cut production this month with a significant increase in palm oil exports in the first half of the month. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and canola oil is in a destocking mode, supporting prices. But the arrival of Australian canola and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations will increase long - term supply pressure. The short - term price fluctuations are intensifying, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade negotiations [6]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures continued to decline. The USDA monthly supply - demand report is bearish, dragging down US soybeans. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China is a recent focus [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Canola Oil**: The 05 contract closed at 9,063 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The global 2025/26 canola production is expected to be 95.172 million tons, with an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year. Canada's 2025/26 canola production is 22 million tons, an increase of 2.761 million tons year - on - year. The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports, and there are positive factors such as US biodiesel news. In China, oil mills are shut down, and canola oil is destocking, but future supply pressure may increase [6]. - **Canola Meal**: The 05 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA report is bearish for soybeans, but US soybean crushing in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation and fluctuates with soybean meal [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices and Positions**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 269,628 lots, an increase of 24,507 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 917,639 lots, an increase of 108,294 lots from last week [12]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were - 6,415, compared with - 10,917 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 240,846, compared with - 107,343 last week, with an increase in net short positions [18]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 2,142, and those of canola meal were 84 [24]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,950 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 887 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 195 yuan/ton [31][37]. - **Futures Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 53 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 68 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [43]. - **Futures - Spot Ratios**: The ratio of the 05 canola oil - canola meal contract was 4.02, and the average spot price ratio was 3.95 [47]. - **Price Spreads between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,047 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 389 yuan/ton, also with narrow fluctuations this week [56]. - **Price Spreads between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 472 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread was 770 yuan/ton [62] 3. Industry Chain Situation **Rapeseed** - **Supply - side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 120,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [66]. - **Imported Pressing Profit**: As of January 15, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,202 yuan/ton [70]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the second week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0% [74]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total rapeseed import volume was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72% [78] **Canola Oil** - **Supply - side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 295,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.64%. In November 2025, the total canola oil import volume was 1.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons compared with the same period last year [82]. - **Demand - side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 605.7 billion yuan [86]. - **Demand - side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 55,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% [90] **Canola Meal** - **Supply - side Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week [94]. - **Supply - side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total canola meal import volume was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96% [98]. - **Demand - side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2.9779 million tons [102] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of January 16, this week, canola meal fluctuated and closed down. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 25.54%, basically the same as last week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [106]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai tin price will face pressure and adjust in the short - term. It is expected to be adjusted at a high level in the short - term, with attention to the MA10 support, in the range of 39 - 42 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose first and then pulled back. The weekly gain was + 14.95%, and the amplitude was 25.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 405,240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and rediscount rates, and cut the monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November last year. The US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high [7]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. However, most smelting enterprises still have low raw material inventories and are operating at a loss. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year. In addition, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. Recently, the import window has opened, increasing import pressure [7]. - **Demand**: Recently, the rise in tin prices has led to a decline in downstream procurement demand, a significant increase in inventory, and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [7]. - **Technical - level**: With the reduction in positions and price adjustment, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there may be an adjustment [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Price Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 405,240 yuan/ton, up 52,330 yuan/ton from January 9, a rise of 14.83%. As of January 15, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was 52,031 US dollars/ton, up 8,281 US dollars/ton from January 9, a rise of 18.93% [9][12]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.87, an increase of 0.33 from January 9. As of January 14, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.67, a decrease of 0.32 from January 8 [16]. - **Position Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 115,615 lots, an increase of 9,920 lots from January 9, a growth rate of 9.39%. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 3,681 lots, a decrease of 2,310 lots from December 22, 2025 [20]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin production was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative refined tin production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [26][27]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On January 16, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 15.38%. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 9.52% [32]. - **Refined Tin Imports**: As of January 15, 2026, the profit and loss of tin imports was 9,027.98 yuan/ton, a rise of 9,460.69 yuan/ton from January 9. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [37][38]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,925 tons, an increase of 520 tons from January 8, a growth rate of 9.62%. As of January 16, 2026, the total tin inventory was 9,549 tons, an increase of 2,614 tons from last week, a growth rate of 37.69%. The tin futures inventory was 9,462 tons, an increase of 3,033 tons from January 9, a growth rate of 47.18% [41]. - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On January 15, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,837.3, a rise of 401.2 from January 8, a growth rate of 5.4% [44]. - **Domestic Electronic Industry Output**: From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 43,184 million pieces, an increase of 3,657.072 million pieces compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 9.25% [44]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Exports**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October 2025, a decline of 9.09%. The tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons from October, a decline of 33.79% [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market were mixed, with commodity sentiment driving the rubber price to rise and then回调. The offer center of the imported rubber market moved up, but the factory procurement sentiment was average. The futures market maintained a relatively strong oscillation pattern, and the domestic spot price slightly followed the rise of the futures market. The downstream procurement willingness was relatively weak, mainly for appropriate rigid - demand replenishment, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions [7]. - The domestic natural rubber main production areas are in the off - season, while the Thai production area is still in the peak production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. The overall inventory accumulation rate has narrowed month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation intensity remains high. The arrival and warehousing at Qingdao Port show a seasonal decline trend, with the overall warehousing volume decreasing month - on - month, and the downstream rigid demand has improved, increasing the overall outbound volume [7]. - In terms of demand, this week, as the production arrangements of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production arrangement is expected to remain basically stable; full - steel tire enterprises still have production control phenomena to control inventory [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market fundamentals were mixed, and the rubber price rose and then回调. The offer center of imported rubber moved up, and the futures market was relatively strong. The domestic spot price slightly followed the rise, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, with light transactions [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic production areas are in the off - season, and Thailand is in the peak season. Qingdao Port inventory is accumulating, but the arrival and warehousing are decreasing seasonally. The downstream rigid demand has improved, and the tire enterprise operating rate has increased [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,400, and the nr2603 contract between 12,700 - 13,250 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.22%; the main contract price of No. 20 rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific data analysis content provided, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber [13][15]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of January 16, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 30, and the spread between No. 20 rubber 2 - 3 was - 35 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 15, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; No. 20 rubber warehouse receipts were 57,758 tons, an increase of 806 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 15, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **No. 20 Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of January 15, the No. 20 rubber basis was 535 yuan/ton, an increase of 149 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of January 16, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 58 (+2) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.2 (+0) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 12 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from last week. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas are in the off - season [41][44]. - **Import**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [50]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [54]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [57]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire exports were 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [60]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [63].