Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will significantly boost demand. Lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, but the upside is limited due to the annual line resistance. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,001 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,618 lots, up 304 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,860 lots, up 517 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,086 tons, down 682 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, up 10,125 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 145 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cash - 3 month spread was - 31.9 dollars/ton, up 0.88 dollars [2]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The production enterprise number of recycled lead was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [2]. - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries was 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 20,325 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The monthly automobile output was 264.2 thousand vehicles, down 3.8 thousand vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 thousand vehicles, up 7.3 thousand vehicles [2]. Industry News - Trump's plan to fire Powell caused a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, and a surge in gold. After Trump's denial, the market stabilized [2]. - Trump's support rate dropped to the lowest level during his tenure [2]. - Trump hopes the oil price can drop further, and thinks $64 per barrel is a good price [2]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Fed's actions are "very very slow" and inflation data has been good [2]. - The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook, with a slight decline in manufacturing activity and cautious corporate hiring [2]. View Summary - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will boost demand, and lead prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the upside is limited [2]. - The supply of primary lead has increased due to rising lead prices, and the supply of recycled lead has also increased slightly, but the raw material bottleneck remains [2]. - Market trading is light, and the support for lead prices from demand is limited. The operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces has declined [2]. - Overseas inventory is decreasing, while domestic inventory is increasing slightly due to the price difference between domestic and overseas markets [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate is decreasing, which will have a negative impact on the output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach or a strategy of lightly shorting on price increases. The macro - situation shows that the US PPI in June reached a nearly one - year low, with flat month - on - month growth. The tariff effect has not yet appeared. In terms of fundamentals, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while the supply of Philippine nickel ore is increasing but domestic port inventories are decreasing, leading to a tight raw material situation. On the smelting side, high raw material prices and falling nickel prices are causing losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts. On the demand side, stainless steel mills are reducing production due to compressed profits, and the demand for ternary batteries is decreasing despite the rising production and sales of new energy vehicles. Currently, supply and demand are both weak, domestic social inventories are rising significantly, and overseas inventories are accumulating again. Technically, the market is in a range - bound adjustment, and attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,880 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan. The 08 - 09 month contract spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,990 US dollars/ton, down 225 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 53,426 lots, down 702 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 16,072 lots, down 927 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, up 708 tons. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,047 tons (weekly), up 125 tons. The total LME nickel cancelled warrants are 10,038 tons, up 720 tons. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,958 tons, down 91 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1,650 yuan. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 120,250 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 570 yuan/ton, down 980 yuan. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 207.51 US dollars/ton, up 3.3 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons (weekly), up 24.65 million tons. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, down 5.44 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the US PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest year - on - year increase since September 2024. The month - on - month growth was 0%, lower than the expected 0.2%. - Trump said that the scale and trade volume of the countries receiving tariff letters are not large; the US and India are close to reaching an agreement; an agreement may be reached with the EU, and it is too early to discuss the prospects of the US - Canada agreement. Trump also said he plans to impose "slightly more than 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries. - Li Qiang said to study the implementation of key policies to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the zinc market is currently in a complex situation. On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are in a wide - range adjustment, and both domestic and overseas inventories are rising, putting pressure on zinc prices. Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,130 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan, unchanged. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons; the SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons; the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. - Automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 8.44%, down 0.78%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 12.74%, down 0.01% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. - Trump said he plans to impose "slightly over 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries and mentioned possible trade agreements [3]. 3.8观点总结 - On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. - Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. - Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent domestic sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but due to rising domestic demand, they perform better than the international market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to increased price volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5828 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 321,770 lots, up 8,938 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,857, down 432. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -14,462 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,606 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,687 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,855 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 1,486 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,356 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 275 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 107 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.51%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.29%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In June, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [2]. - Internationally, with the monsoon season coming, the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support and limiting short - term decline [2]. - From the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.86%. The sugar production in the central - southern region was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - According to Brazilian foreign trade data, Brazil exported 1.36992641 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled, and it is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals. It is recommended to lightly short on rallies, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals are in a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand. The upside space may be limited due to the off - season and trade uncertainties. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost support is strong. The upside space may be limited in the short term. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory **Futures Market** - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the closing price of the Alumina futures main contract is 3,089 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the closing price of the Casting Aluminum Alloy main contract is 19,845 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,575.50 US dollars/ton, down 7.50 US dollars [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum increases by 74,084 hands to 268,542 hands; the main contract position of Alumina decreases by 15,471 hands to 223,893 hands; the main contract position of Casting Aluminum Alloy decreases by 114 hands to 8,279 hands. The LME aluminum inventory is 423,525 tons, up 6,550 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 103,197 tons, up 8,565 tons [2]. **Spot Market** - **Price**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,550 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Casting Aluminum Alloy is 155 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan; the basis of Electrolytic Aluminum is 155 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of Alumina is 61 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production and Utilization**: The Alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the Alumina capacity utilization rate is 80.93%, down 1.17 percentage points [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for Alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons; the supply - demand balance of Alumina is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Supply and Inventory**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 44.80 million tons, up 3.60 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - **Production and Trade**: The electrolytic aluminum production is stable with a slight increase; the aluminum products production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 48.90 million tons, down 6.10 million tons [2]. **Downstream and Application** - **Production**: The aluminum alloy production is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - **Indicator**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. **Option Situation** - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.74%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 9.28%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. - **Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.11, down 0.0362 [2]. **Industry News** - **Domestic**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market are 57.1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%; the retail sales of the new energy passenger car market are 33.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4% [2]. - **International**: The US PPI in June is flat month - on - month, and the core PPI is also flat, with the smallest year - on - year increase since the end of 2023 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Thursday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The spot price index has been rising continuously, indicating that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to be implemented. However, due to trade - war uncertainties, the demand for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to be weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. The rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market Data - EC2510, the main contract, closed down 4.28%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index is 2421.94, up 163.9 points from last week, a 7.3% week - on - week increase. The EC main contract closed at 2164.500, up 16.0; the EC secondary main contract closed at 1581.3, down 70.70. The EC2508 - EC2510 spread increased by 28.30, and the EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 583.20, up 14.20. The EC contract basis was 257.44, down 11.50. The EC main contract open interest was 16587, down 2160 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) increased by 163.90, SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) was 1266.59, down 291.18. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) decreased by 30.20, and container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) was 1733.29, down 0.25. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) decreased by 29.29, CCFI (European Line) (weekly) was 1726.41, up 32.11. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) decreased by 40.00, the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1967.00, up 23.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 14788.00, down 95.00, and that of Capesize ships was 18645.00, up 1736.00 [1] Industry News - Trump said that drug tariffs may be introduced by the end of the month, and the timeline for chip tariffs is similar but less complex. He is studying 5 - 6 trade agreements, and 2 - 3 agreements may be reached before August 1. He may impose a unified tariff of about 10% on all small countries and send tariff payment notices to 150 countries. He is negotiating with India and the two sides are close to an agreement. The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, with high uncertainty and a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook. The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into Brazil's unfair trade practices. Mexican President Cinbaum said Mexico does not accept the so - called "anti - dumping duty" on Mexican tomatoes imposed by the US unilaterally and will take corresponding actions if an agreement on tariffs cannot be reached by August 1 [1] Economic Data - In June, the US S&P Global Composite PMI index dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. Price pressure increased significantly. In May, core PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%. Real personal consumption expenditure decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year, and personal income decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the largest decline since 2021 [1] Future Outlook - Trump threatens to impose a maximum 30% tariff on EU products starting August 1. China has implemented counter - measures against EU products such as brandy and medical devices. The 7 - 8 month period is a window for countries like Europe, Japan, and Vietnam to renegotiate with the US, with uncertainties remaining [1] Key Data to Focus On - On July 18 at 07:30, Japan's June core CPI annual rate; at 14:00, Germany's June PPI monthly rate; at 22:00, the US July one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy issuance restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly, and the price of nickel iron has dropped recently, weakening the support of raw material costs [2] - On the supply side, steel mills are under increasing pressure of cost inversion and are in a loss state across the board, forcing them to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2] - On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and continued pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant, with poor acceptance of high - priced goods. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought about by subsequent production cuts [2] - Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short sides. Attention should be paid to the support of MA10, and short - term consolidation is expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,730 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, a daily decrease of 595 lots; the position of the main contract is 104,645 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,572 tons, a daily decrease of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2] - The daily SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,650 yuan; the national average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 110,000 units, a decrease of 10,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 258,000 units, a decrease of 2,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US PPI in June had a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0% [2] - Trump said that the countries receiving tariff letters are small in scale and trade volume, the US and India are close to reaching an agreement, and there may be an agreement with the EU [2] - Li Qiang proposed to study the implementation of key policies to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of polysilicon enterprises has generally increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts have not significantly affected capacity fluctuations. The demand may decline significantly due to the anti - involution meeting, but prices are gradually recovering. The production schedule of downstream PV modules has been reduced, and demand has weakened marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises' overall production decline is expected to end as profits stabilize, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. The polysilicon demand side still faces great pressure. Last week's price increase gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, but this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Currently, the downstream sales sentiment has improved, and overall production has increased. Pay attention to inventory data changes. The short - term market price is consolidating at a high level. Be vigilant against a rapid decline after the news hype is falsified. The polysilicon price continued to rise today, the main contract switched to 09, and trading volume continued to expand. Do not continue to chase high prices and can continue to arrange put options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of polysilicon is 45,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,755; the main position volume is 70,964 lots, a decrease of 819. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon is 235, a decrease of 115; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 36,955 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,695 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 2,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.72. The average prices of cauliflower - shaped, dense, and re - fed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 8,745 yuan/ton, an increase of 60; the spot price is 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500. The monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.14; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces, and the monthly average import price is 0.33 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.04. The PV industry's comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, an increase of 0.62 [2] Industry News - At the Third Chain Expo Guangdong International Supply Chain Cooperation Conference on July 16th, Zhuang Lecong, a second - level inspector of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, said that Guangdong Province will focus on industries, seize opportunities, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system supported by advanced manufacturing. It will transform and upgrade traditional industries, develop industries such as embodied robots, and innovate and develop new energy storage and PV industries [2]

为主。建议短期逢高试空交易。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14060 | 50 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 64811 | -4190 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 444 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -17151 | -152 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14400 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14200 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15700 | -400 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 340 | -150 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 shows a volatile and slightly upward trend, closing at 2484 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen the return of previously减产 and shutdown facilities, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 2.2% to 82.6%. On the demand side, last week the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, and the average alumina profit is 300.3 yuan/ton. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. In terms of inventory, this week the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 38.39 tons, with little inventory pressure. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased. Recently, the downstream operating rate of liquid chlorine has increased, and the inverted price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been alleviated, which has repaired the chlor-alkali profit, opening up the room for the increase of the caustic soda operating rate. The non-aluminum off-season demand is weak, and the downstream mainly purchases on a rigid basis. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2420 and the pressure around 2550 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2484 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 18; the futures holding volume is 247,813 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 11,994; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is -4,279 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 8,873; the futures trading volume is 489,252 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 272,960. The closing price of the January contract is 2471 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20; the closing price of the May contract is 2532 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 19 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis is 159 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 46 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -350 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 50; in Jiangsu, it is -75 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3150 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.7%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 2.56% and a year-on-year increase of 1.78% [3].