Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the M300 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12445 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 70 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6126 lots, an increase of 1933 lots; the main contract position is 108469 lots, a decrease of 8957 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 62998 tons, a decrease of 121 tons [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (cut - edge, Wuxi) is 13200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 (Wuxi) is 8850 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The SS main contract basis is 375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29430 tons, an increase of 1120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22900 metal tons, an increase of 1200 metal tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9939.65 tons, a decrease of 18631.22 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 905100 tons, a decrease of 180200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 119750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%, national) is 885 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2] - China's ferrochrome output is 757800 tons, a decrease of 26900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The 300 - series stainless - steel output is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 597600 tons, an increase of 12300 tons [2] - The stainless - steel export volume is 458500 tons, a decrease of 29500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 490613900 square meters, an increase of 36623900 square meters [2] - The output of excavators is 30900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21900 units, a decrease of 4300 units; the output of small tractors is 9000 units, a decrease of 1000 units [2] Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2 month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months. Affected by the high base, the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that interest rates are at a reasonable level [2] - Germany's CPI in November was 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the preliminary value of the harmonized CPI year - on - year unexpectedly rose to 2.6%, a nine - month high [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, the nickel ore grade is decreasing, and the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron output remains at a high level, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and although the traditional demand peak season is over, the actual decline in output is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance are average. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory is showing a narrow increase [2] - Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is under pressure, and the short sentiment is weakening [2]

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-01 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 将有下降。需求端，部分下游及终端企业担忧锡价持续拉升，进行了少量补库及刚需采买，而整体则对当 前价位仍持观望态度。国内库存录得下降，现货升水回升至500元/吨；LME库存小幅增加，现货升水上涨 免责声明 。技术面，成交放量收上影线，多空分歧增大。观点参考：预计沪锡震荡上移，关注30.5-31位置阻力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The supply may gradually converge due to profit issues, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum shows some resilience [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, it is also advised to conduct light - position oscillating trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The production is slightly weak, and the downstream demand has some resilience [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, light - position oscillating trading is recommended, with attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks. The supply may decrease slightly, and the demand has certain support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,865 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,677 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,865 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars [2]. - **Inventory and Positions**: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 539,050 tons; Shanghai Aluminum's warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons to 66,833 tons. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 4,953 hands to 265,623 hands, while the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 320 hands to 359,920 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,730 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Premiums and Basis**: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium was - 60 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium was - 25.95 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The basis of alumina was 93 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The production was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The export was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 17,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the import quantity of aluminum scrap in China was 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export quantity was 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import quantity was 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export quantity was 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production was affected by seasonality and decreased slightly [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles. It is expected that the annual automobile sales in China will exceed 34 million vehicles, with new - energy vehicle sales reaching 16 million vehicles and exports exceeding 6.8 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national housing climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 10.96%, down 0.33%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.73%, up 0.33%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 9.23%, up 0.0021; the put - call ratio was 1.64, up 0.0672 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will cut interest rates at the December 9 - 10 meeting, with a probability of about 85% - 86% for a 25 - basis - point cut [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. - The inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in November was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The estimated terminal sales of passenger cars in November were about 2.15 million vehicles [2]. - The CMF annual report suggests that China's economy will face three new opportunities in 2026, and it is advisable to set cross - cycle interval combination targets [2].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 股指期货全景日报 2025/12/1 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2512） | 4555.4 | +48.6↑ IF次主力合约（2603） | 4518.2 | +46.0↑ | | | IH主力合约（2512） | 2986.4 | +22.6↑ IH次主力合约（2603） | 2978.4 | +20.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2512） | 7031.6 | +61.4↑ IC次主力合约（2603） | 6857.8 | +59.0↑ | | | IM主力合约（2512） | 7290.0 | +40.2↑ IM次主力合约（2603） | 7057.6 | +40.4↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1569.0 | +26.4↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2476.2 | +7. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of green columns. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 96,940 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 171,173 hands, up 6,764 hands; the position of the main contract is 543,633 hands, up 16,635 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 560 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 8,222 hands/ton, up 2,781 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 91,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,590 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,230 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 10,525 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,894 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 59.51%, down 0.1%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 45.26%, down 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 279,793 contracts, up 4,316 contracts; the total put position is 276,207 contracts, up 19,248 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 98.72%, up 5.4405%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.36%, down 0.0047% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a symposium on power and energy - storage battery manufacturing enterprises, aiming to promote high - quality development of the industry [2] - The deputy secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted that China's annual automobile sales will exceed 34 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 16 million vehicles and automobile exports expected to exceed 6.8 million vehicles [2] - Russian President Putin said that Chinese electric vehicles are more competitive than European ones [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]

Core Viewpoint - The number of shareholders in Ruida Futures has decreased for the third consecutive period, indicating a potential trend of declining investor interest [2] Group 1: Shareholder Information - As of November 30, the number of shareholders in Ruida Futures was 22,701, a decrease of 1,606 from the previous period (November 20), representing a month-on-month decline of 6.61% [2] - This marks the third consecutive decline in the number of shareholders [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - The closing price of Ruida Futures on the reporting date was 22.06 yuan, down 1.03%, with a cumulative decline of 1.78% since the concentration of shares began [2] - The stock experienced 4 days of increases and 3 days of decreases during the reporting period [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Ruida Futures reported total operating revenue of 1.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87% [2] - The net profit for the same period was 386 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.15% [2] - The basic earnings per share were 0.8700 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 12.64% [2]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a strong performance, with coking coal futures reaching a high of 1088.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 1.93% [1] - Supply remains tight due to the recovery of some coal mines in major production areas, while new shutdowns are occurring in Shanxi province, indicating ongoing supply disruptions [1] - The demand side shows a rebound in coke production, but purchasing sentiment from downstream sectors is weak, leading to a marginal deterioration in the overall market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Domestic raw coal production has decreased month-on-month, with some coal mines in Shanxi collectively shutting down due to accidents, contributing to supply uncertainty [2] - The normal passage of coal at the China-Mongolia border has resumed, but recent transactions of Mongolian coal have been sluggish, putting downward pressure on prices [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that energy supply and demand are generally balanced for the heating season, suggesting that resource supply is secure [2]

Core Conclusions - The financial industry experienced a weekly increase of +0.68% in the non-bank financial index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [1] - The banking sector saw a decline of -0.59%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 2.23 percentage points, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing varied performance [1][9] Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's index rose by +0.20%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.44 percentage points, driven by strong demand for dividend insurance products that align with residents' needs for stable returns and value appreciation [2][12] - Major insurance companies are focusing on dividend insurance as a strategic core, with product offerings expanding significantly ahead of the 2026 "opening red" period [2][12] - The growth of new single premiums is expected to be strong in 2026, supported by improved net present value margins (NBVM) and a favorable regulatory environment for dividend insurance [2][17] Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector index increased by +0.74%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.90 percentage points, with recent developments in refinancing for two brokerages indicating a cautious approach to capital raising [2][18] - The current environment presents a mismatch between profitability and valuation in the brokerage sector, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][19] - Recommendations include strong mid-to-large brokerages with low valuations and those involved in mergers or restructuring [2][19] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's index decreased by -0.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.23 percentage points, with a focus on high dividend strategies remaining viable [3][20] - The average dividend yield for banks is approximately 4.1%, which is attractive compared to other sectors, particularly in the context of a stable earnings outlook [3][21] - Recommendations include state-owned banks and resilient city commercial banks, with specific attention to banks with strong fundamentals and low volatility [3][22]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +1.64% | 10 年国债到期收益率+0.18%/本周变动+0.33BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 +1.46% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 -0.29% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体上涨，除上证指数外 | 本周点评：10月经济指标全线回落，基本面小幅承压， | | | 均涨超3%。四期指亦集体上涨，中小盘股强于大盘蓝 | 预计四季度经济延续弱修复态势，对债市形成支撑。央 | | | 筹股。本周市场交投相对平淡，24日晚间中美两国元 | 行延续适度宽松的政策基调，但年内货币进一步宽松的 | | | 首通话推升市场短线风险偏好，27日国家统计局公布 | ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2512 | 1.75 | 0.14 | 4505.8 | | | IH2512 | 0.57 | -0.05 | 2963.2 | | | IC2512 | 3.02 | 0.95 | 6874.2 | | | IM2512 | 3.46 | 0.95 | 7260.8 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | 沪深300 | 1.64 | 0.25 | 4526.66 | | | 上证50 | 0.47 | -0.09 | 2969.62 | | | 中证500 | 3.14 | 1.15 | 7031.55 | ...