Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 01 contract closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the export of Canadian canola has declined significantly this year, the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan, which designates canola oil as the core raw material, and the agreement between Canada and Pakistan to promote canola exports to Pakistan provide support. Domestically, the supply of imported canola is structurally tight, and canola oil will continue to be destocked, supporting its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit the demand for canola oil. The canola oil futures price has been fluctuating narrowly and slightly lower recently, but it may be stronger than other oils due to tight supply. Short - term participation is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed higher. The 01 contract closed at 2,452 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US soybean is in the export season with abundant supply, but it faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. The good domestic crushing consumption in the US and China's purchase of nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30 support the US soybean price. Domestically, the import of Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and the supply is tight. However, the demand for canola meal in aquaculture has weakened due to the temperature drop, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal reduce the demand for canola meal. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The canola meal has been generally fluctuating recently, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Canola Oil**: The 01 contract of canola oil futures closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. The export decline of Canadian canola exerts pressure, but policies and new export agreements provide support. Domestically, the supply is tight, and the price is supported, but the demand is limited by soybean oil. The price may be stronger than other oils, and short - term participation is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: The 01 contract of canola meal futures closed at 2,452 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US soybean market has both supply and demand factors. Domestically, the supply is tight, but the demand is weak. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 175,955 lots, a decrease of 67,869 lots from last week. Canola meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed up, with a total position of 319,701 lots, a decrease of 36,483 lots from last week [14]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were +2,658 this week, compared with +4,542 last week, with a slight increase in net long positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 11,641 this week, compared with - 10,587 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [19]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 3,965 lots, and those of canola meal were 0 lots [24][25]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,700 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. The basis between the active contract of canola oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was +313 yuan/ton. The price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of canola meal was - 32 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of canola oil was +256 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of canola meal was +37 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contract of canola oil and canola meal was 3.979, and the ratio of the average spot price was 3.97 [52]. - **Price Spread between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The spread between the 01 contract of canola oil and soybean oil was 1,513 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 contract of canola oil and palm oil was 1,131 yuan/ton. Both spreads fluctuated narrowly and contracted this week [61]. - **Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The spread between the 01 contract of soybean meal and canola meal was 592 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 560 yuan/ton as of Thursday [67]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Canola**: As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of canola in oil mills was 0.1 million tons. The estimated arrival volumes of canola in November, December, and January 2025 were 1, 60, and 36.5 million tons respectively. The spot crushing profit of imported canola was +1,190 yuan/ton as of November 27. The crushing volume of canola in coastal oil mills was 0.0 million tons in the 47th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0.0%. The import volume of canola in October 2025 was 0 million tons [73][77][81][85]. - **Canola Oil**: As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed canola oil was 43.9 million tons, a decrease of 4.4 million tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.98%. The import volume of canola oil in October 2025 was 14.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.11% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 million tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan. The contract volume of imported and crushed canola oil was 3.8 million tons as of the end of the 47th week of 2025, an increase of 0.1 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.91% [89][93][97]. - **Canola Meal**: As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed canola meal was 0.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 100.00%. The import volume of canola meal in October 2025 was 22.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.99% and a month - on - month increase of 6.30 million tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 29.57 million tons [101][105][109]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 28, the implied volatility of canola meal options was 17.7%, a decrease of 3.03% from the previous week, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [113].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11. 28」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 ◆ 行情回顾：美联储降息预期大幅抬升，贵金属市场本周偏强运行。宏观数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心 PPI环比上涨0.1%，较前值有所抬升，但主要由食品能源价格上涨驱动，核心商品PPI增速有所放缓；ADP就业报告显 示，截至2025年11月8日四周内，美国私营企业雇主平均每周削减13,500个岗位，较前值每周减少2,500人的幅度显著 扩大，美国就业市场延续降温态势。联储内部表态整体呈鸽派基调，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示在劳动力走软背景下 存在降息空间，旧金山联储主席戴利支持下次会议降息，理事米兰重申应在通胀尚高时实施更大幅度降息，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率由上周五的40%大幅抬升至86.9%，降息预期提振市场乐观交易情绪。地缘方面，美乌完成一份 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 fell 6.67%, and the far - month contracts fell between 7 - 11%. The poor implementation of the freight rate increase plan led to a significant decline in the near - month futures prices. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rebounded significantly, up 20.7% week - on - week. The recovery foundation of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Spot freight rates decreased, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine remained stalemated. The eurozone economy continued to improve. The shipping capacity remained loose, and the traditional peak - season boost effect might be weaker than expected. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently [6][42]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - Futures: The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures declined rapidly this week. Contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 all had different degrees of decline, with the decline ranging from 6.55% to 11.03%. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract remained high, and market trading warmed up [9][13][15]. - Spot: The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1639.37, up 271.7 points from last week, a 20.7% week - on - week increase [6][42]. 2. News Review and Analysis - China expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to Japan's prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan. This news was considered neutral to bearish [18]. - Trump's team made progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a peace plan was being negotiated. This news was considered neutral to bullish [18]. - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes strengthened the market's expectation that the current interest - rate cut cycle had ended, which was considered neutral to bullish [18]. - Some Fed officials signaled interest - rate cuts, while others thought it was necessary to hold the rates steady in December. This news was considered neutral [18]. 3. Chart Analysis - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week [25]. - The export container freight rate index declined collectively this week [29]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European Line capacity recovered as the peak season approached. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [32]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [36]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined this week. The implementation of the freight rate increase plan was poor, and the recovery of terminal transportation demand was not solid. Spot freight rates decreased, and the geopolitical situation was stalemated while the eurozone economy continued to improve [42]. - The shipping capacity remained loose, and the boost effect of the traditional peak season might be weaker than expected. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [7][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon iron market has weak supply - demand, neutral inventory, high costs, and profit losses. It is expected that in December, production will decline compared to the same period, and the price will fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: This heating season, energy supply and demand are generally balanced, and there is sufficient resource supply. As of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons, with an available days of about 35. On November 24, South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium - thick and alloy steel hot - rolled plates for 5 years. From January to October, the steel industry's profit was 10.532 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [7]. - **Overseas**: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid demand restocking, prices have fallen, and inventory has continued to decline this period. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 525 yuan/ton. In November, HBIS's tender price for 75B silicon iron was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the silicon iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy**: In terms of new production capacity, there will be no new capacity put into production this year. Silicon iron manufacturers are suffering obvious losses, and it is expected that December production will decline compared to the same period. The country will continue the policy of reducing crude steel production in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel output will continue to decline. Coke profit has limited room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of November 28, the position volume of silicon iron futures contracts was 494,700 lots, an increase of 46,100 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month spread was - 30, a decrease of 4 points. The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 10,907, an increase of 2631 compared to the previous period. The price of silicon iron in Ningxia was 5180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [13][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, the basis of silicon iron was - 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared to the previous period [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply**: This week (November 27), the national average operating rate (capacity utilization) of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 33.41%, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week. The daily average output was 15,320 tons, a decrease of 0.97% (150 tons) compared to the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 19,660 tons, an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous week, and the national silicon iron production (weekly supply) was 107,200 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: This week (November 27), the national inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises was 71,830 tons, a decrease of 1.67% (1220 tons) compared to the previous week. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 400 tons, in Gansu by 150 tons, in Shaanxi by 300 tons, and in Qinghai decreased by 70 tons, and remained unchanged in Sichuan [32]. - **Upstream**: As of November 24, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for silicon manganese and silicon iron remained unchanged. As of November 27, the domestic market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Inner Mongolia and the tax - included price of semi - coke in Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5444 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase, and in Ningxia was 5625 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase. The spot profit of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 525 yuan/ton, a 11.23% decrease [36][40]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 8100 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to October, the total export volume of Chinese silicon iron (Si > 55%) was 317,337.522 tons, a decrease of 8.85% year - on - year [43].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The silicon - manganese market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory. The supply has seen a slight decline recently, and the demand side is affected by the national policy of reducing crude steel production. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply - demand balance with inventory accumulation. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5450 - 5750 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: This heating season, the overall energy supply and demand are balanced, and the national unified power plants have sufficient coal storage. South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products. The steel industry has turned from loss to profit from January to October [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US employment market is weak, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December 9 - 10 meeting [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Inventory has risen rapidly for 8 consecutive weeks, production has declined slightly from a high level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 3.3 tons, and the iron - water production has seasonally declined. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 300 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 415 yuan/ton. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Leading manganese - based enterprises plan to promote 40% energy - saving and emission - reduction in the industry, but the supply has not decreased significantly. The supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is accumulating. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5450 - 5750 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of November 28, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 741,200 lots, a decrease of 10,000 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 54, a decrease of 14 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts were 14,758, a decrease of 5579 from the previous period. The spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts was 236, an increase of 72 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous period. The basis was - 162 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 points [24]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week. The daily average output was 27,825 tons, a decrease of 305 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 121,727 tons, an increase of 0.26% from the previous week, and the weekly supply was 194,775 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 5000 tons to 368,000 tons [27][33]. - **Upstream**: The electricity price and manganese ore price remained unchanged. As of November 21, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.296 million tons, an increase of 0.77%. The arrival of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased to 0. The silicon - manganese spot profit remained in a loss state [39][45][48]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,100 - 10,700 in the short - term [7]. - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated narrowly this week, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 to 10,650 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. With sufficient supply of private resources and a lack of cost - side drivers, downstream buyers are firm in pressing for lower prices, and the negotiation focus of spot prices remains under pressure. Inventories of producers and traders have both increased. Considering the maintenance of Maoming Petrochemical's plant and the output release after some plants restart, the overall supply is expected to change little, while downstream demand may continue to press for lower prices. The increase in inventories of producers and traders is expected to be limited in the short term [8]. - This week, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises that had been under maintenance resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate recovered. Next week, as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume normal operation, the overall capacity utilization rate will recover, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of this month and early next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,100 - 10,700 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated narrowly this week, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 to 10,650 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: Supply has recovered, downstream demand is pressing for lower prices, and inventories of producers and traders have increased. The overall supply is expected to change little, and the increase in inventories is expected to be limited in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will recover next week but will be limited by maintenance plans [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.29% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of November 28, the spread between contracts 1 and 2 of butadiene rubber was - 5 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of November 28, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 3,110 tons, an increase of 130 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of November 27, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of November 27, the basis of butadiene rubber was 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of November 27, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 566 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.12 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of November 28, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.97%, a decrease of 1.56% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate: In November 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from last month. As of November 27, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45% from last week [37]. - Cis - butadiene rubber production profit: As of November 27, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 434 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Cis - butadiene rubber inventory: As of November 28, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,440 tons, an increase of 930 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,900 tons, an increase of 270 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,540 tons, an increase of 660 tons from last week [44]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 13.64 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year [47]. - Tire export volume: In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 6.79% from the same period last year. From January to October, the cumulative tire export volume was 7,043,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 225,900 tons, a decrease of 13.23% from the previous month and a decrease of 12.82% from the same period last year; the cumulative export volume from January to October was 2,726,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 398,500 tons, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous month and a decrease of 3.85% from the same period last year; the cumulative export volume from January to October was 4,026,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [50]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2170区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇期货价格走势 郑州甲醇期货价格走势 • 本周郑州甲醇主力合约价格震荡收涨，当周主力合约期价+6.54%。 4 来源：博易大师 「 期货市场情况」 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场止跌反弹，其中江苏价格波动区间在1990-2110元/吨，广东价格波 动在1980-2080元/吨。内地甲醇价格上涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1985-1990元/ 吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2155-2175元/吨。港口价格走高且套利内地空间收窄，跌价内地 供需矛盾不大影响，企业出货良好，下游买涨心态浓厚。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 本周部分预售下周期货量，叠加烯烃企业外采量略缩，内地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 yuan. The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, facing the pressure of MA20 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Shanghai Nickel - **Weekly Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +2.66% and an amplitude of 3.21%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months. Fundamentally, the rainy season in the Philippines has led to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. The RKAB approval in Indonesia and possible changes in export policies are potential variables, but they have limited impact on supply recently. On the smelting side, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into operation one after another. Although the shortage of intermediate raw materials and profit losses have led to partial production cuts, the production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large. On the demand side, the price of nickel iron, the raw material for stainless steel, has decreased, the profits of steel mills have improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium has increased. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increasing trend. Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, and the divergence between long and short positions has increased [7]. 3.1.2. Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: This week, stainless steel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +0.61% and an amplitude of 1.71%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 12,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the grade of nickel ore is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the price of nickel iron has decreased significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased. On the supply side, the production profits of stainless - steel plants have improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and trading performance are average. Therefore, the social inventory of stainless steel across the country shows a narrow increase. Technically, the position has decreased, the price is under pressure, and the short - selling atmosphere has weakened [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Price Trends - As of November 28, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 885 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 117,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,030 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week [13]. 3.2.2. Basis Trends - As of November 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 835 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.3. Price Ratio Trends - As of November 28, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.47, an increase of 0.19 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06 from last week [25]. 3.2.4. Net Position Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 25,372 lots, a decrease of 1,681 lots from November 24, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 11,728 lots, a decrease of 2,567 lots from November 24, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Production Profit**: As of November 21, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 14.9976 million tons, a decrease of 97,300 tons from last week. As of November 28, the production profit of electrowinning nickel was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,550 yuan/ton from last week [37][38]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: In September 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In October 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 9,939.649 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.21%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 197,125.63 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.13% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the inventory of Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 40,782 tons, an increase of 4,031 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 255,450 tons, an increase of 4,014 tons from last week [49][50]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In October 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.5138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 659,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.57%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.054 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%. The import volume of stainless steel was 121,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the export volume was 300,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48,200 tons. From January to October, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.2457 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,700 tons [54]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of November 28, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 334,940 tons, an increase of 2,477 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 553,664 tons, an increase of 7,131 tons from last week [59]. - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, the production profit of stainless steel was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from last week [64]. - **Related Industries**: From January to October 2025, the newly started area of housing was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%; the completed area of housing was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%; real estate development investment was 735.627 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. In October 2025, the production of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.33%; the production of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%; the production of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; the production of freezers was 2.153 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In October 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 3.359 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36.3%; the sales volume was 3.322 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. The production of excavators was 30,880 units, a year - on - year increase of 13%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,903 units, a year - on - year increase of 5.47%; the production of small tractors was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [68][73].

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 「 周度要点小结」 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1600-1640元/吨， 均价环比上涨5元/吨。短时工厂将挺价为主，行情暂时僵持观望，不排除成交重心继续小幅上移。 行情展望：部分装置检修使得国内尿素产量小幅下降，下周预计4家企业装置计划停车、4家停车 企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量预计小幅波动。近日东北储备需求采购较 为集中，但随着前期适当的补充，采购量或有所放缓。复合肥开工环比提升，企业陆续排产冬储 肥，预计短期复合肥产能利用率稳中有升。随着新一批配额的落地，出口需求逐渐增量。近期因 储备需求的继续推进，复合肥等下游终端补仓影响，以东北、华北为主要区域企业出货加快，尿 素企业库存继续下降，考虑到储备需求推进以及部分出口发运预期，短期尿素库存仍有小幅去库 趋势。 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 目录 1、 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 沪铜市场周报 需求淡季预期向好，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏强，周线涨跌幅为+2.07%，振幅2.19%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价87430元/吨。 后市展望：基本面原料端，铜精矿加工费仍运行于负值区间，原料供给持续紧张，对铜价成本支撑逻辑仍在。供给方面， 经历前期集中检修后，冶炼产能或再度释放，但原料端铜精矿、废铜供应紧张，对产能将有一定限制，故国内精铜供给量 仅小幅度回升。需求方面，消费淡季影响逐步显现，加之铜价偏高位运行，对下游消费有一定抑制，在此背景下，下游采 买情绪或将偏向谨慎，多采取刚需补货策略。库存方面，社会库存整体保持中低水位运行，但由于消费淡季的影响，或有 一定库存积累。应用消费方面，国内电力基础设施临近年末赶工，加之新能源汽车行业的年终冲量，在一定程度上为需求 进行托底。总体来看，沪铜基本面或处于供给小幅回升、需求受淡季影响略收 ...