Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, particularly in the aerospace and consumer electronics sectors, reflecting a bearish sentiment among investors. Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Flow - Aerospace stocks, such as Aerospace Electronics and China Satellite, experienced the largest fund outflows, with -38.16 billion and -25.95 billion respectively, and declines of -9.98% and -10% in their stock prices [1][2] - Other notable stocks with significant outflows include Xinwei Communication (-18.59 billion, -10.05%), Sanhua Intelligent Control (-17.72 billion, -3.89%), and Goldwind Technology (-17.69 billion, -3.99%) [1][2] - The outflow from Longi Green Energy was -15.87 billion with a stock price decrease of -1.34%, indicating a relatively smaller decline compared to others in the same sector [1][2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumer electronics sector saw major outflows, particularly from companies like Xinwei Communication and Lens Technology, with outflows of -18.59 billion and -12.82 billion respectively [1][2] - The wind power equipment sector, represented by Goldwind Technology, also faced significant outflows, reflecting potential challenges in the renewable energy market [1][2] - The communication equipment sector, including companies like Haige Communication and China Satellite, showed substantial fund outflows, indicating investor caution in this area [1][3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant presence of public funds in the stock market, with 2,977 stocks appearing in fund heavy positions as of the end of Q4 last year, indicating a clear trend in institutional investment strategies [1] - A total of 107 stocks have a fund holding ratio exceeding 10%, showcasing the high influence and control of institutional funds over these stocks [1] Group 1: Fund Holdings and Stock Performance - Among the 107 stocks with over 10% fund holdings, 56 saw increased investments in Q4, with notable increases in holdings for ShenGong Co., Tianhua New Energy, and Maiwei Co., with increases of 59,020.96%, 15,808.35%, and 959.13% respectively, indicating strong institutional confidence in their fundamentals [2] - Conversely, 48 stocks experienced reductions in fund holdings, with notable decreases for Nuocheng Jianhua-U, Kaiter Co., and Keda Li, with reductions of 43.91%, 41.04%, and 39.95% respectively [2] - Three new stocks entered the heavy holding category, with Baiao Saitu, Litong Technology, and Xingtou Measurement Control having fund holding ratios of 21.55%, 12.60%, and 10.03% respectively [2] Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - The phenomenon of institutional clustering remains significant, with over 100 funds holding 42 of the 107 stocks, and 29 stocks held by 50 to 99 funds, indicating a strong consensus among institutional investors [4] - Notably, Ningde Times, despite a holding ratio of 11.63%, has the highest number of fund holders at 2,056, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang, Zijin Mining, and Xinyi with over 1,300 fund holders each [4] - The stocks with high fund holdings are predominantly in the "hard technology" and "innovation" sectors, with 42 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 27 from the Growth Enterprise Market, and 31 from the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards, reflecting a focus on growth sectors [4] Group 3: Performance Expectations - Among the 107 stocks, 26 have released performance forecasts for 2025, with 18 expecting profit increases, 4 expecting declines, and 2 forecasting losses, indicating a generally positive outlook [5] - The highest expected profit growth is for Baiwei Storage at 473.71%, followed by Changxin Bochuang and Baiao Saitu with expected growths of 378.70% and 303.57% respectively, providing strong support for long-term fund holdings [5] - The concentration of fund holdings in the electronics and biopharmaceutical sectors suggests an increased market expectation for technological innovation and consumer recovery [5]

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 随着 2025年 的收官， 作为市场 的 "聪明钱"与风向标， 9 大外资公募的 年度重仓股也随之揭晓 。纵观全年， 以 AI为核心的科技板块，从一季 度的重点布局，到二季度的大幅加仓，再到三季度的集中持有 ， 无疑是外资公募坚定、持久的共识。 0 1 摩根大通基金持仓市值超800亿！减持宁德时代，大幅加仓有色金属！ 截至2025年四季度末，摩根大通基金资产规模高达2405.72亿元，三季度末为2132.19亿元。根据基金2025年报，旗下基金在四季度末持有215只 标的，持有的股票市值约为847.31亿元。 摩根大通基金在四季度末的重仓股中，持股市值最多的20家公司，均在2亿以上。受益于2025年市场行情的回暖，仅1只个股出现微跌，其余19 只个股的均出现不同程度的涨幅，年度涨幅在100%以上的个股有10只。 第一大重仓股是宁德时代 ，摩根大通基金旗下43只基金合计持有848.05万股，持有市值高达31.15亿元，但相比三季度末减仓63.17万股。 其次 第二、第三大重仓股均为当时市场火热的 CPO龙头中际旭创和新易盛，2025年涨幅分别高达3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan highlights the significant growth in global energy storage battery shipments, projecting a total of 640 GWh in 2025, which represents an 82.9% year-on-year increase. Domestic manufacturers are expected to ship 621.5 GWh, also reflecting an 82.8% growth, while overseas shipments are anticipated to reach 18.5 GWh, marking an 85% increase [1][2]. Group 1: New Energy Vehicles and Energy Storage - The global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to reach 23.54 million units in 2025, a 29.1% increase year-on-year, with China accounting for 70.3% of the total sales. Sales in Europe and the US are expected to be 3.77 million and 1.6 million units, respectively, showing growth rates of 30.5% and 1.72% [1]. - For energy storage, the forecast for 2026 indicates that global shipments of energy storage batteries could reach 1,090 GWh, representing a 70% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Material Supply - Starting from June 2025, a tightening supply-demand situation for domestic energy storage cells has initiated a price increase cycle, with prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate rising since September. The underlying logic for these price increases is driven by supply-demand dynamics, where strong downstream demand leads to improved profitability in the materials sector [3]. - The lithium battery industry is experiencing an improved supply-demand balance, with major battery manufacturers like CATL ramping up production. However, the materials sector faces significant financial pressures due to high debt levels and the need for capital turnover amidst new capacity releases [3]. Group 3: Future Demand and Policy Support - The demand cycle for 2026 is expected to be bolstered by continued domestic policies such as trade agreements in Europe and China, as well as the reintroduction of electric vehicle purchase subsidies in Germany. The Chinese market is projected to see a 94% year-on-year increase in new energy storage orders and collaborations, reaching 35.3 GWh in 2025 [4]. - The updated export tax rebate policy for battery products, effective from January 2026, is anticipated to advance overseas demand for new energy products [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on lithium-related materials such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, as well as heavy asset-related sectors like separators. Recommended stocks include Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) and others in the lithium materials sector [5]. - Additionally, leading battery manufacturers with strong pricing power and supply-demand imbalances are highlighted, with recommendations for stocks like CATL (300750.SZ) and others [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery materials industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift away from excess supply mentality, highlighting the potential for non-linear profit growth among leading companies in the lithium battery materials sector due to rigid supply against continuously growing demand [3][4] - It suggests a focus on lithium-related materials such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium carbonate, hexafluorophosphate, and aluminum foil, while also considering heavy asset-related materials like separators [4] - The report forecasts significant growth in the electric vehicle (EV) market and explosive growth in energy storage, with global EV sales expected to reach 23.54 million units in 2025, a 29.1% increase year-on-year [4] - It notes that the energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 640 GWh in 2025, marking an 82.9% year-on-year growth [4] - The report anticipates a demand cycle to commence in 2026, supported by favorable domestic and international policies [4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery materials sector, including 盛新锂能 (Shengxin Lithium Energy), 湖南裕能 (Hunan Youneng), 天赐材料 (Tianci Materials), and others, while also highlighting battery leaders like 宁德时代 (CATL) and 亿纬锂能 (EVE Energy) [4][7] Market Data - The report provides operational data for several listed companies in the lithium battery sector, indicating varying levels of profitability and cash flow, with 宁德时代 (CATL) showing a net profit of 49 million in Q3 2025 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 61% [6] - It includes a table summarizing earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with 宁德时代 (CATL) having an EPS of 14.90 for 2025E and a PE ratio of 23.29 [7]

Summary of ESS Battery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global ESS Battery Demand**: The demand for Energy Storage Systems (ESS) batteries is projected to accelerate significantly, with shipments expected to reach approximately 640 GWh in FY25, reflecting a year-over-year growth of over 90% [2][5][37]. - **China's Role**: China's domestic demand is a primary growth driver, with shipments surging over 100% year-over-year in 4Q25 due to supportive policies [2][11]. The country accounts for about 97% of global ESS battery supply [41]. Key Insights - **December Shipment Performance**: December 2025 shipments were robust at 85 GWh, marking a 34% month-over-month increase and a 90% year-over-year increase [2][21]. - **Future Projections**: The base case model anticipates global ESS battery shipments to grow over 40% to around 900 GWh in 2026, driven by policy support from China and strong order momentum from Europe [3][37]. - **Policy Changes**: China's Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in VAT export rebates from 9% to 6% starting April 2026, which is expected to optimize capacity structure and reduce market involution, benefiting leading players like CATL [2]. Company Highlights - **CATL**: As the largest ESS battery maker globally, CATL is well-positioned to gain market share with new capacity releases. It is projected that ESS will account for 20% of CATL's total battery production volume in FY26 [12][14][109]. - **Sungrow**: Recognized as the largest solar inverter producer, Sungrow is expected to benefit from rising ESS demand, particularly in emerging markets [4][12]. - **LGES**: LG Energy Solution is well-positioned to capture growth in the US ESS market, having commenced production of LFP ESS batteries in Michigan [12][14]. - **BYD**: ESS accounts for 17% of BYD's total battery production volume in FY25, indicating a growing focus on this segment [106]. Market Dynamics - **Export Trends**: Chinese ESS battery exports to the US saw a significant increase of 126% year-over-year in FY25, driven by rush purchases ahead of tariff hikes [48]. However, shipments to the US slowed to 9% year-over-year in 4Q25 due to tariff shifts [13]. - **Price Trends**: ESS battery prices from Chinese manufacturers increased by 1-2% in 4Q25, following a rebound of 5-10% earlier in the year [13][100]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: CATL's global market share fell by 10 percentage points in FY25 due to capacity constraints, while competitors like Hithium and BYD gained market share [72][99]. CATL holds nearly 50% of the US market share and about 20% in the EU [50]. - **Emerging Competitors**: Companies like Gotion and Narada are gaining traction in the telecom ESS market, with Gotion achieving a 5 percentage point market share increase [99]. Conclusion The ESS battery market is poised for substantial growth, driven by strong demand in both domestic and international markets, particularly in China and the US. Leading companies like CATL, Sungrow, and LGES are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, although they face increasing competition and market dynamics that could impact their market shares.

January 22, 2026 12:30 PM GMT Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. | Asia Pacific Sodium Era is Coming CATL is strategically moving away from lithium to lower cost sodium ion batteries. We believe the new release of sodium ion products marks the coming of the sodium era, given its launch- and-mass-production-immediately model. First release of sodium ion battery as a powertrain for light trucks. Sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a promising alternative to lithium batteries following CATL's release of ...

Summary of Conference Call on Solid-State Batteries and Lithium Battery Equipment Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the solid-state battery and lithium battery equipment industry, focusing on companies like CATL (宁德时代), Xian Island (仙岛), and others involved in lithium battery equipment manufacturing [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Expansion Plans - CATL has revised its expansion plan from a twofold increase over three years to a threefold increase over five years, expecting production capacity to reach 400-500 GW by 2026, with a year-on-year order growth of approximately 30% [1][3]. Performance of Lithium Battery Equipment Companies - Leading companies in the lithium battery equipment sector are showing varied performance: - Xian Dao is expected to achieve a profit of 1.5-1.8 billion yuan in 2025, with Q4 profits projected at 300-500 million yuan [4]. - Hai Mu Xing reported a turnaround in Q4, nearing a profit of 100 million yuan after a projected loss of 800-900 million yuan for the year [4][5]. - Hong Gong Technology anticipates a profit of 50-80 million yuan for 2025, with significant improvement in Q4 [5]. - Hua Zi Technology expects a loss reduction of 30%-40% in 2025, with a turnaround expected in 2026 [5]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The valuation of the lithium battery equipment sector is primarily based on orders, with a typical price-to-earnings ratio of around 20 times for profits and 15 times for orders. Xian Dao is expected to benefit from scale effects and high-quality orders, leading to improved profitability [6]. Market Dynamics - The domestic energy storage market is seeing significant order increases from companies like AVIC Energy, with a notable rise in order share from 7% to over 10% [7]. - In Europe, new energy policies are expected to boost demand for local battery production, although Xian Dao's orders in Europe are currently limited [8]. Indian Market Growth - The Indian market is experiencing rapid growth in energy storage demand, supported by major conglomerates like Tata and Reliance. Xian Dao expects to secure 5 billion yuan in orders from India, representing 20% of its total orders [9]. Company-Specific Developments - Hai Mu Xing's new orders for 2025 exceeded expectations at 9.5 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 30%-50% [10]. - Hong Gong's orders are expected to grow by 30%-50% in 2026, driven by increased demand from upstream materials and battery sectors [11]. - Joint ventures in laser welding are also performing well, with a projected order volume of 7-8 billion yuan for 2026 [12]. Recommendations for Investment - Xian Dao is recommended as a leading company with significant growth potential, with a projected market value increase of 50% in 2026 [18]. - Other companies to watch include Xian Hui and Hua Zi, both showing promising developments in the solid-state battery sector [19]. Competitive Advantages - Xian Hui excels in structural components and is involved in high-pressure pack projects, while Hua Zi focuses on high-pressure formation equipment, positioning them well for upcoming tenders from CATL [20]. Notable Companies in the Market - Companies like Qing Yan and Hong Gong are highlighted for their roles in dry electrode processes and advanced equipment, with expectations of securing significant contracts [21]. Additional Important Insights - The solid-state battery sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with applications expanding into consumer electronics, space, and medical fields, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2][16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The space for space photovoltaic technology is vast, and the potential for solid-state batteries and AIDC (Advanced Intelligent Driving Control) is promising [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][4] - The report highlights the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including wind power, nuclear power, and lithium batteries, with notable price increases in lithium carbonate and other materials [3][4] Industry Trends - The energy storage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with new installations reaching 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025 [3] - The report notes that the U.S. energy storage market is also expanding, with a projected installation of 80 GWh in 2026, driven by data center demands and favorable policies [7] - The report indicates that the demand for solid-state batteries is increasing, with major companies accelerating their production lines [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with projected increases ranging from 50% to over 100% [3][4] - The report mentions specific companies like Hunan YN, which anticipates a net profit of 1.15-1.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93.75%-135.87% [3] - The report also highlights the expected losses for companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., with projected net losses of 6-6.5 billion yuan and 9-10 billion yuan, respectively [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on energy storage, lithium batteries, and solid-state technologies, with recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [4] - It emphasizes the importance of companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market access, particularly in the AIDC sector [4] - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the wind and solar power sectors, with specific recommendations for companies involved in these areas [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment sector [5] Core Insights - Elon Musk's companies, SpaceX and Tesla, plan to build a total of 200GW of solar capacity in the U.S. over the next three years, significantly exceeding market expectations [34] - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the lithium battery sector, particularly with the expansion of LMFP production, which is expected to see a 275% year-on-year increase in output by 2025 [17] - The Southern Power Grid Company is set to invest 180 billion yuan in fixed assets in 2026, marking a continuous five-year high, with a focus on new power system construction and strategic emerging industries [25] Summary by Sections Electric Equipment Sector - The report emphasizes the continuous high investment in the electric equipment sector, with a focus on new energy and digital transformation [25] - Key companies to watch include XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, and China XD Electric, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing investments [25] Lithium Battery Sector - The report notes significant expansions in LMFP production, with companies like Hunan Youneng and Xiamen Tungsten planning substantial increases in capacity [17] - The introduction of favorable policies for equipment updates and financing is expected to stimulate growth in the lithium battery sector [14] Solar Energy Sector - The report tracks the solar industry, noting stable prices for polysilicon and solar cells, while demand remains cautious due to market uncertainties [27][28] - Companies like Junda Co. are actively pursuing funding to enhance their capabilities in space solar energy, aligning with the broader trend of technological advancement in renewable energy [35] Wind Energy Sector - The report highlights upcoming offshore wind power tenders in Turkey and the Netherlands, indicating a growing international focus on wind energy [8] - Domestic wind power installations are projected to maintain high growth rates, with significant opportunities for companies involved in offshore wind projects [8]