华源证券：维持华利集团"买入"评级，静待外部扰动因素逐步消退。 ...

东方证券研报指出，华利集团上半年收入同比增长10.36%，归母净利润同比下降11.42%。结合之前的 一季报可测算得出公司Q2收入和归母净利润同比分别下降9%和17%，Q2净利率为12.4%，同比下降4.1 个百分点，环比一季度也下降了近1.9个百分点。本次业绩快报收入基本符合市场的预期，但盈利与市 场之前的期待存在一定差距。全球贸易摩擦之下，部分老产能重新调配叠加新工厂集中处于爬坡期导致 公司短期盈利能力承压。公司作为全球最领先的运动鞋制造龙头之一，其优势在于深度绑定大客户、规 模领先、研发创新强以及优秀的全球化生产管理能力等，短期扰动不会改变其行业竞争力，看好其中长 期的发展前景。参考可比公司，给予2025年23倍PE估值，对应目标价为68.77元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The report discusses the interaction between the Kondratiev cycle and capacity cycles, highlighting that major technological innovations drive the Kondratiev cycle, influencing fixed asset investment waves through macro profit rates [7][8] - It notes that during the down phase of the Kondratiev cycle, a decline in macro profit rates leads to a rigid constraint on capacity utilization, creating a vicious cycle of profit decline, investment reduction, and increased idle capacity [8] - The report emphasizes that global capacity expansion has a "15-year time lag," exacerbating domestic competition pressures, indicating that overcapacity has become a normalized dilemma rather than a temporary issue [8] Group 2: Industry and Company Developments - The social services sector is highlighted for its competitive advantages through high-cost performance products and mature membership systems, with companies like Dongfang Zhenxuan showing improved GMV and membership growth [24][25] - The mechanical industry is experiencing growth, with the 2025 World Robot Conference showcasing new humanoid robots, indicating rapid development in the domestic robotics industry [27][28] - In the AI infrastructure sector, the report notes that demand is driving continued capital investment in data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and cooling units [29][30] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The report indicates that the public REITs market is experiencing a slight decline, with the average weekly return for property and operating rights REITs being -0.45% and -0.03% respectively, while warehouse logistics and energy sectors show positive performance [12][14] - It highlights that the bond market remains active, with a slight rebound in long-term bonds, and the 30-year government bond yield is at a historically low level, suggesting a stable investment environment [10][11] - The report also mentions that the stock market is showing resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3600 points, driven by sectors like military and rare earths [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huali Group (300979.SZ) is rated as outperforming the market due to a 10% revenue growth driven by both volume and price increases in the first half of the year [2] - The report notes that the profit margin declined quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter due to fluctuations in orders from existing customers and the ramp-up of new factory capacities [2] - It is expected that the negative impact from the new factories, which have been intensively put into production since September 2024, will ease in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - The report highlights that tariffs in Vietnam and Indonesia are set at approximately 19% to 20%, with major international brand clients likely passing most of the tariff costs onto consumers through price increases, limiting the burden on contract manufacturers [2] - Risks mentioned include potential underperformance in capacity expansion, weak sales from downstream brands, and international political and economic risks [2]

Group 1 - The core stock price of Huali Group as of August 11, 2025, is 51.63 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.09% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on the same day was 2.28 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.38%, and the total market capitalization reached 602.52 billion yuan [1] - Huali Group is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of athletic footwear, targeting globally recognized sports brands [1] Group 2 - An institutional report indicates that Huali Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, maintaining steady growth despite external disruptions [1] - The report attributes the growth in orders to an optimized customer structure, which has led to an increase in product average prices [1] - On August 11, the net inflow of main funds was 9.1288 million yuan, although there was an overall net outflow of 24.8295 million yuan in the past five days [1]

华源证券8月11日发布研报称，给予华利集团（300979.SZ，最新价：51.63元）买入评级。评级理由主 要包括：1）公司2025H1营收预计同比+10%，外部因素扰动下增长符合预期；2）α与β共振推动公司订 单增长，客户结构性变化驱动ASP上行。风险提示：国际局势变动及国际贸易变动风险；劳动力成本提 升风险；客户需求修复不达预期风险。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月11日 华利集团（300979.SZ） 上半年收入增长 10%，盈利受老客订单波动及新厂产能爬坡影响承压 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 纺织服饰·纺织制造 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2025 年 8 月 8 日，公司发布中期业绩快报及分红预案，2025 年上半年，公司销售运动鞋 1.15 亿双，同比增长 6.14%；实现营业收入人民币 126.61 亿元，同比增长 10.36%；实现归属于上市公司股东 的净利润人民币 16.64 亿元，同比减少 11.42%。公司拟派发现金红利 1 元/股，分红率达 70%。 国信纺服观点：1） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated operational resilience with a revenue growth of 10.36% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, despite external disturbances [7] - The company maintains strong collaboration with major clients such as Nike and Adidas, and is optimistic about long-term structural growth in the industry [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a dual increase in volume and price due to industry demand recovery and client structure changes [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 20,114 million RMB - 2024: 24,006 million RMB (19.35% YoY growth) - 2025E: 27,664 million RMB (15.24% YoY growth) - 2026E: 31,734 million RMB (14.71% YoY growth) - 2027E: 36,258 million RMB (14.25% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit projections for the same period are: - 2023: 3,200 million RMB - 2024: 3,840 million RMB (20.00% YoY growth) - 2025E: 3,560 million RMB (-7.31% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4,250 million RMB (19.39% YoY growth) - 2027E: 5,199 million RMB (22.35% YoY growth) [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: 2.74 RMB - 2024: 3.29 RMB - 2025E: 3.05 RMB - 2026E: 3.64 RMB - 2027E: 4.46 RMB [6] Market Performance - The company's closing price is 52.20 RMB, with a market capitalization of 60,917.40 million RMB [3][4] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 22.94% and a net asset value per share of 15.51 RMB [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][5][7] Core Views - The company is expected to continue expanding its high-potential customer base, with revenue growth anticipated as production capacity is gradually released. However, some customer orders may still face pressure due to uncertainties in the trade environment and fluctuations in overseas demand [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a significant mid-term dividend, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 10 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 1.167 billion, which represents 70% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 12.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.66 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.42% [5] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 7.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with a net profit of RMB 902 million, down 17.3% year-on-year [5] - The company’s sales volume for H1 2025 was 115 million pairs, up 6.1% year-on-year, with an average price of approximately RMB 110.09 per pair, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-on-year [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20.114 billion in 2023 to RMB 34.497 billion by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -2%, 19%, 11%, 14%, and 13% respectively [3][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fluctuate, with forecasts of RMB 3.2 billion in 2023, RMB 3.84 billion in 2024, and RMB 4.962 billion in 2027 [3][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19.0 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [3][5]

华利集团 300979.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据业绩快报，我们下调公司盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 3.03、3.68、4.30 元（原先分别为 3.71、4.22、4.83 元），参考可比公司，给予 2025 年 23 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价为 68.77 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：美国关税政策反复、海外需求下降、汇率波动等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 20,114 | 24,006 | 26,680 | 30,516 | 34,093 | | 同比增长 (%) | -2.2% | 19.4% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 11.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,056 | 4,967 | 4,577 | 5,556 | 6,495 | | 同比增长 (%) | -1.2% | 22.5% | -7.8% | 21.4% ...